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Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
M.Sc. in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology
The Energy SystemCurrent Situation and Market Trends
PART I
Prof. Manuel Heitor
Maria João Rodrigues Pinto
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
CLASS OUTLINE
@ Course presentation
@ Students presentation
@ Key elements and concepts of the energy system. Energy Supply. Energy demand. Energy consumption by sector.
PART I 09h00-10h30
PART II 11h00-13h00
BREAK: 10h30-11h00
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
STUDENTS PRESENTATION
What’s your understanding of energy management? And energy policy?
What’s your understanding of the course curriculum?
What’s your interest and expections about the course?
What’s your professional background?
What’s the main theme of your dissertation?
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
Name: Alexandre Mateus
Academic Background: Engª Informática e de Computadores @IST
STUDENTS PRESENTATION
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
Carlos Neves
Engª Mecânica @ISEL
STUDENTS PRESENTATION
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Inês Azevedo
Engª do Ambiente @IST
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Miguel Fernandes
Economia @Lusófona
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Rui Carvalho
Engª Mecânica @IPL
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Sara Levy
Engª Ambiente @IST
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Susana Beira
Medicina Veterinária @FMV
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Tânia Torre
Engenharia Ambiente @IPS
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Tiago Oliveira
Energy and Industrial Production Engineering @UE
Name:
Academic Background:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Miguel Carvalho
Engª Informática e Computadores @IST
Micro-Geração com Pilhas de Combustível
Name:
Academic Background:
Dissertation:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Ana Oliveira
Engª Ambiente @UA
The Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Photovoltaic Very-Large Scale Applications - The Case of Amareleja Facility
Name:
Academic Background:
Dissertation:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DOS ALUNOS
Vanessa Figueiredo
Química Tecnológica @FCUL
The Role of Architects in the Diffusion of Photovoltaic Solar Technology
Name:
Academic Background:
Dissertation:
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
OBJECTIVOS
Desenvolver competências para a compreensão e análise crítica de políticas energéticas
Sensibilizar para as dimensões de sustentabilidade energética
Desenvolver competências para a compreensão das questões associadas às políticas públicas energéticas e de gestão de energia de diferentes perspectivas institucionais
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #0 • Students presentation• Course presentation
• Key elements and concepts of the energy system• Energy supply• Energy demand• Energy consumption by sector
02/10/2004
Class #1
09/10/2004
• Energy Balances• Energy prices• Energy, economy and environment: key relationships and indicators
• PAPER DISCUSSIONOECD/IEA (2004), Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #2 • The driving forces of energy policy• Energy policy objectives• Principles of energy policy design and evaluation
• INVITED SPEAKERAntónio Castro, EDP Energy Market Restructuring: Merging the electricity and natural gas businesses
• PREPARATORY PAPERToh, Kyung-hwan (2003), The impact of convergence of the Gas and Electricity Industries: Trends and Policy Implications, Working Paper, IEA
16/10/2004
Class #3 • Energy policy strategies and instruments
• PAPER DISCUSSIONEEA (2004), Energy Subsidies in the European Union – A brief Overview, EEA Technical Report 1/2004
23/10/2004
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #4
30/10/2004
• Energy efficiency, rational use of energy and demand-side management strategies. • Overview of end-user sector energy policies.
• INVITED SPEAKERS Helder Gonçalves, INETI The Portuguese and the European Framework of Energy Policy for the Buildings Sector
Miguel Arruda, Miguel Arruda Arquitectos Associados The impact of Energy Regulation in Architectural Design of Buildings
• PREPARATORY PAPEROfficial Journal of the European Communities L1/65, 04.01.2003, Directive 2002/91/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2002Concerning the energy performance of buildings
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #5
06/11/2004
• Detailed analysis of environmental indicators• The Kyoto Protocol and the Flexible Mechanisms. • The IPPC Directive. • Interaction between, and interoperation of, policy instruments.
• PAPER DISCUSSIONOECD/IEA (2001), Energy Indicators and Sustainable Development, presented at COP7 meeting, 29 October–9 November, Marrakesh
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #6 • Overview of supply-side energy policies • Renewable energy policies – past, present and prospects in a liberalised market context
• INVITED SPEAKERNuno Ribeiro da Silva, SOMAGUE The Wind Power Market in Portugal – Current Situation and Development Trends
• PREPARATORY PAPERKamp, L., Smits, R., Andriesse, C., Notions of Learning Applied to Wind Turbine Development in the Netherlands and Denmark, Energy Policy 32 (2004) 1625-1637
13/11/2004
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #7 • The importance of energy R&D in shaping energy policies • Energy technologies, technological paths and learning curves • Selected world energy R&D Programmes • Energy R&D expenditure
• Entrepreneurship in energy markets: Presentation of the Energy Challenge Initiative by Maria José Francisco, IST/IN+.
• PAPER DISCUSSIONScience (2004), Toward a Hydrogen Economy, Special Section, Science vol. 305, August 2004
22/11/2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #8
27/11/2004
• Key issues and drivers of energy markets liberalisation • Regulation v.s. de-regulation • Energy market structure and organisation in the liberalised context • Energy market liberalisation and long-term security of supply
• INVITED SPEAKER Anibal Santos, REN Energy market liberalisation and economic regulation
• PREPARATORY PAPEROfficial Journal of the European Union L176/37, 15.07.2003, Directive 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003Concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and repealing Directive 96/92/EC
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
PROGRAMA
Class #9
04/12/2004
WORKSHOP
The Future of the Energy System
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINAAVALIAÇÃO
Paper critical review 25% Final Grade GE
Take-home Exam 50% Final Grade IE
Class Participation 25% Final Grade IE
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
AVALIAÇÃO
TOPICAL PAPERS
CLASS PARTICIPATION 25% Final Grade
• 4 students groups • 1 paper presentation at random (1/2 hour; no slides needed)• 1 discussant at random (1/2 hour; do I need further readings?)• group discussion (I will not be sleeping on Saturday morning!)
PREPARATORY PAPERS
• Prepare at least one question for the invited speaker
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
AVALIAÇÃO
Group work
PAPER CRITICAL REVIEW 25% Final Grade
Choose one paper among topical and preparatory (no repetition allowed)
Maximum number of pages: 20
Language: EN or PT
Review the paper including other perspectives
Due in class # 9
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
APRESENTAÇÃO DA DISCIPLINA
AVALIAÇÃO
Date to be anounced
TAKE-HOME EXAM 50% Final Grade
Hand-out on Friday, due on Monday
If there are doubts, there may be an oral exam
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
KEY ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTS OF THE ENERGY
SYSTEM
Energy supply
Power plantsHeat plantsGas supplyOil supply
...
End-Use Energy
Heating OilGasoline
ElectricityNatural Gas
...
Energy ServiceDemand
Car-kmMotive Power
LightIndoor Heat
...
Fuel Mix
Supply Conversion Efficiency
Fuel Mix
EnergyIntensity
ENERGY SYSTEM
“UTILITY”
Governmental Intervention
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Data Source: DGE, 2003
2000 Fuel Shares of Portuguese TPES
Geothermal and Wind Electricity
0,1% Hydroelectricity3,9%
Electricity Trade0,3%
Comb. Renewables &
Wastes10,6%
NG9,2%
Oil60,9%
Coal14,9%
TPES = 25,55 Mtoe
Evolution from 1990 to 2000 of Portuguese Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Oil Coal NG Electricity Trade Comb. Renewables & Wastes Hydroelectricity
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Crude Oil
OECD Countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Crude Oil
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Crude Oil Reserves
Source:BP, 2003
109 barrels = 136 Mt
R/P2002 = 40,6
R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) oil reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Crude Oil Trade Movements
Source: BP, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Natural Gas
OECD Countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Natural Gas
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Natural Gas
Source:BP, 2003
R/P2002 = 60,7
R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) natural gas reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Natural Gas Trade Movements
Source: BP, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Hard Coal
OECD Countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Hard Coal
Source: IEA, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY SUPPLY
Hard Coal
Source:BP, 2003
R/P2002 = 204
R/Pi: Number of years the remaining (proved) coal reserves would last if production remained at same level of year i of analysis
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
END-USE ENERGY
Source: IEA, 2003
Evolution from 1990 to 2000 of Portuguese Total Final Consumption by Fuel (Mtoe)
0
24
68
10
1214
1618
20
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Oil Coal NG Electricity Others
2000 Fuel Shares of Portuguese TFC
Coal2,8%
Oil59,0%NG
5,1%
Electricity18,1%
Others15,0%
TFC = 18,28 Mtoe
Data Source: DGE, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
Source: IEA, 2003
?
?
END-USE ENERGY
Electricity Fuel Mix
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY DEMAND
Source: IEA, 2003
Oil
Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Oil Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Industry Transports Other Non- energy use
2001 Shares of Portuguese Oil Consumption
Industry16%
Transports58%
Non- energy use8%
Other18%
TFCoil = 11,35 Mtoe
Data Source: DGE, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY DEMAND
Natural Gas
Source: IEA, 2003
Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Natural Gas Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Industry Transports Other
2001 Shares of Portuguese Natural Gas Consumption
Industry82%
Transports0%
Other18%
TFCNG = 1,21 Mtoe
Data Source: DGE, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY DEMAND
Coal
Source: IEA, 2003Data Source: DGE, 2003
Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Oil Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Industry Transports Other
2001 Shares of Portuguese Coal Consumption
Industry100%
TFCcoal = 0,23 Mtoe
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
ENERGY DEMAND
Electricity
Source: IEA, 2003
Evolution from 1990 to 2001 of Portuguese Electricity Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe)
0
1
2
3
4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Industry Transports Other
2001 Shares of Portuguese Electricity Consumption
Industry39%
Transports1%
Other60%
TFCElectricity = 3,44 Mtoe
Data Source: DGE, 2003
Energy Management and Policy
02/10/2004The Energy System – Current Situation and Market Trends
REFERENCES & FURTHER READING
• IEA (2000), The IEA Energy Indicators Effort – Increasing the Understanding of the Energy/Emissions Link, presented at COP6 meeting, 13-24 November 2000, The Hague http://www.iea.org/envissu/cop6/eneinl.pdf
• IAEA and IEA (2001), Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development, presented at the 9th session of UN-CSD April 2001 http://www.iea.org/envissu/files/csd-9.pdf
• IEA (2001), Energy Indicators and Sustainable Development, presented at COP7 meeting, 29 October–9 November, Marrakesh http://www.iea.org/envissu/cop7sus.pdf
• IEA (2003), Key World Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statist/key2003.pdf
• BP (2003), BP Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/index.asp
• http://www.iea.org/stats/defs/sources/petrol.htm
• DGE, Balanços Energéticos Nacionais http://www.dge.pt/main.asp?idtemas=3&idsubtemas=1&Idconteudos=905
• IEA (1997), The Link between Energy and Human Activity http://library.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/bookshop/b.aspx