Energy Policy Solutions
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Transcript of Energy Policy Solutions
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
HAL HARVEY
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AMERICA’S ENERGY GOALS:
Energy Policy Solutions aims to find the policies that achieve these goals
AFFORDABLE
CLEAN
RELIABLE
SAFE
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
Identifies the policies that can deliver on America’s energy goals most cost-effectively
Establishes an analytically-driven approach to reducing emissions in an efficient and economically viable way
Provides the tools and resources necessary to make informed policy decisions
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
Our reviewers: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Argonne National Lab
National Renewable Energy Lab
MIT
Stanford
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ENERGY POLICY SIMULATORThe Energy Policy Simulator measures the cost and emissions impacts of more than 50 climate and energy policies.
It is unique in that it: Covers all GHG-emitting sectors Offers unlimited policy
combinations: users can adjust policy levers and observe their impacts in real-time
Is fully open-source; anyone can download the model and view or modify its data sources and structure
Runs on free, publicly-available data
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ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR
A web application visualizes model results in an easy-to-use interface
https://energypolicy.solutions/scenarios/home
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MODEL FINDINGSCLEAN POWER PLANTarget: Reduce electricity-related emissions 32% below 2005 levels by 2030
Policy Settings: Coal Plant Retirements Industrial Efficiency Standards Renewable Electricity + Transmission Building Codes and Appliance Standards R&D
Clean Power Plan is relatively easy to achieve
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MODEL FINDINGSUS 2025 EMISSIONS TARGETTarget: Reduce economy-wide emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025
Policy Settings: Fuel Economy Standards Car Feebate Urban Mobility Electric Vehicles Renewable Electricity + Transmission Coal Plan Retirement Building Codes and Appliance Standards
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax Reduced F-gases Methane capture Clean On-Site Industrial Energy Industrial Efficiency Standards Forest Expansion Coal Efficiency Improvement Retrofitting
The U.S. 2025 emissions target is challenging, but doable
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONSSCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000EMISSIONS
MIL
LION
MET
RIC
TONS
CO2
e
BUSINESS AS USUAL
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONSSCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000EMISSIONS
MIL
LION
MET
RIC
TONS
CO2
e
BUSINESS AS USUALCLEAN POWER PLAN
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONSSCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000EMISSIONS
MIL
LION
MET
RIC
TONS
CO2
e
BUSINESS AS USUAL
US 2025 CLIMATE TARGET
CLEAN POWER PLAN
POLICY SOLUTIONS
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MILL
ION
METR
IC T
ONS
CO2e
POL ICY SOLUTIONSEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
2013 2015 2025 20302020
BUSINESS AS USUAL
POLICY SOLUTIONS
LAND USEBUILDINGS
ELECTRICITY
TRA
NSP
ORT
IND
UST
RYCA
RB
ON
TA
X
0%
100%
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax
Reduced F-Gases
Methane Capture
Clean On-Site Industrial Energy
Industrial Efficiency Standards
Car Feebate
Fuel Economy Standards
Urban Mobility
Electric Vehicles Forest Expansion
Coal Plant Retirements
Renewable Electricity + Transmission
Coal Efficiency Improvement
Building Codes and Appliance Standards
Retrofitting
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2013 2015 2020 2025 2030-100000000000
0
100000000000
200000000000
300000000000
400000000000
500000000000
600000000000
700000000000
800000000000
900000000000CUMULATIVE COSTS AND SAVINGS
Clean Power PlanPolicy Solutions
BILL
ION
2012
$
COSTS
Values are in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annuallyfrom a base year of 2016. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral.
SAVING
S
Savings by 2019 Savings by 2027
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2013 2015 2020 2025 20300
500000000000
1000000000000
1500000000000
2000000000000
2500000000000
3000000000000
3500000000000
4000000000000
4500000000000
5000000000000CUMULATIVE SOCIAL BENEFITS
Clean Power PlanPolicy Solutions
TRILL
ION
2012
$
BENEFITS
Social benefits include only avoided mortality due toparticulates and avoided contribution to climate damages.
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2013 2015 2020 2025 20300
1000000000000
2000000000000
3000000000000
4000000000000
5000000000000
6000000000000NET BENEFITS (ECONOMIC + SOCIAL)
Clean Power PlanPolicy Solutions
Values represent the sum of economic benefits (inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annually from a base year of 2016) and social benefits. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral.
BENEFITS
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KEY MESSAGES
Carbon reductions can be done across the economy at a relatively quick pace
This requires great policy design and implementation
Doing this properly can save hundreds of billions of dollars
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POLICIES THAT WORK Reward performance, not investment, being
wary of unintended consequences Set goals and empower market forces to
drive the best solutions Require consistent, predictable
performance improvements Set a long-term trajectory
These principals promote competition, accelerate technology, and drastically cut costs.
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THANK YOU
@HAL_HARVEY@ENERGYINNOVLLC
HAL HARVEYWWW.ENERGYINNOVATION.ORG