Encuesta Cobre
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Transcript of Encuesta Cobre
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GFMS COPPER SURVEY 2015 Prepared by GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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The GFMS team at Thomson Reuters gratefully acknowledges the generous support from the following companies for this
years GFMS Copper Survey and the Update
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Thomson Reuters 2015.
All content provided in this publication is owned by Thomson Reuters and/or its affiliates (the Thomson Reuters Content) and protected by United States and international copyright laws. Thomson Reuters retains all proprietary rights to the Thomson Reuters Content. The Thomson Reuters Content may not be
reproduced, copied, manipulated, transmitted, distributed or otherwise exploited for any commercial
purpose without the express written consent of Thomson Reuters. All rights are expressly reserved.
TRADEMARKS
Thomson Reuters and the Thomson Reuters logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies. The third party trademarks, service marks, trade names and logos featured in this publication
are owned by the relevant third parties or their affiliates. No use of such mark, names or logos is permitted
without the express written consent of the owner.
DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND NO RELIANCE
This publication is provided by Thomson Reuters on an as is and as available basis. Thomson Reuters makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness
of the Thomson Reuters Content. Thomson Reuters is an aggregator and provider of information for
general information purposes only and does not provide financial or other professional advice. Thomson
Reuters is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from any decisions made in reliance on the
Thomson Reuters Content, including decisions relating to the sale and purchase of instruments, or risk
management decisions.
DISCLAIMER
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COPPER PRICE SLIDE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COPPER PRICE SLIDE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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INTRA-YEAR COPPER PRICE PERFORMANCE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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LME COPPER STOCKS: CUMULATIVE WEEKLY CHANGE
Source: LME, GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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WORLD COPPER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2011 2012 2013 2014 Change y-o-y CAGR (3-Y) CAGR (6-Y)
Primary (conc. & SX-
EW) 16,130 16,410 16,920 18,066 7% 3.9% 2.7%
Secondary 3,465 3,580 3,795 3,740 -1% 2.6% 4.8%
Total Refined
Production 19,595 19,990 20,715 21,806 5% 3.6% 3.0%
Total Refined
Consumption 19,736 19,799 20,669 21,490 4% 2.9% 3.2%
Surplus/(Deficit) -141 191 46 316
Exchange Stock
Change -24 45 -83 -200
Implied Off-Exchange
Stock Change -117 146 129 517
LME 3-Month Price
($/tonne) 8,825 7,946 7,346 6,828 -7%
LME Cash Price
($/tonne) 8,811 7,950 7,322 6,862 -6%
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GLOBAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION
+3.2%
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COPPER CONSUMPTION YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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REGIONAL/COUNTRY CONSUMPTION SPLIT, 2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GROWTH TRENDS AND REGIONAL SPLIT BY END-USE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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EXCHANGE & BONDED WAREHOUSE STOCKS
Source: LME, COMEX, Chinas Customs, GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CHINESE REFINED COPPER IMPORTS VS BONDED PREMIA
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CHINA END-USE SPLIT
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CHINA AUTO PRODUCTION
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
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REAL ESTATE SLOWDOWN
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
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GROWTH AT END-USE SECTORS-AC DESTOCKING
Source: China Electricity Council, NBS
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INVESTMENT IN POWER GRID FALLS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, China Electricity Council, NBS,
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MINED AND REFINED PRODUCTION
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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ANNUAL INCREASES IN MINED AND REFINED PRODUCTION
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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MINE PRODUCTION: VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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BY REGION BY COUNTRY
MINE PRODUCTION WINNERS AND LOSERS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GFMS MINE ECONOMICS: COPPER
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GLOBAL UNIT COSTS AND MARGINS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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NET UNIT CASH COST BY REGION
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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ORE PROCESSED AND IMPLIED COPPER GRADE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CASH AND TOTAL COST CURVES; MINES
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
0 20 40 60 80 100
US
$/T
ON
NE
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)
2014 copper price
Net cash costs
Total costs
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CASH AND TOTAL COST CURVES; COMPANIES
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
0 20 40 60 80 100
US
$/T
ON
NE
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)
CO
DE
LC
O
FR
EE
PO
RT
GL
EN
CO
RE
BH
P B
ILL
ITO
N
SO
UT
HE
RN
CO
PP
ER
RIO
TIN
TO
KG
HM
AN
GL
O A
ME
RIC
AN
AN
TO
FA
GA
ST
A
FIR
ST
QU
AN
TU
M
2014 copper price
Net cash costs
Total costs
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CASH COSTS 2014; COUNTRY
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
0 20 40 60 80 100
US
$/T
ON
NE
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (%)
IND
ON
ES
IA
ME
XIC
O
PO
LA
ND
CH
ILE
PE
RU
CO
NG
O (
DR
C)
UN
ITE
D S
TA
TE
S
BR
AZ
IL
AU
ST
RA
LIA
ZA
MB
IA
Net cash costs
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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90TH PERCENTILE COASH AND TOTAL COSTS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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M&A ACTIVITIY - DEAL SCREENER ON EIKON
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METALS & MINING GLOBAL M&A DEAL VALUE/VOLUME
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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DEAL VALUE BY COMMODITY 2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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M&A DEAL VALUE BY SECTOR
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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CHINESE M&A DEAL VALUE SPLIT BY TARGET NATION
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COPPER: GLOBAL M&A DEAL VALUE AND VOLUME
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COPPER M&A DEALS 2014/15
Acquiror Name Target Name Completion Date Deal Value $m Key asset stage asset location
MMG South America
Management Xstrata Peru SA Aug-14 7,005 Las Bambas construction Peru
Lundin Mining Corp Freeport-McMoRan
Inc Nov-14 2,000 Candelaria operating Chile
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
Lumina Copper Corp
Aug-14 395 Taca Taca project Argentina
HudBay Minerals Inc
Augusta Resource Corp
Jul-14 328 Rosemont project United States
Kazakhmys PLC CCC Mining
Construction BV Jun-14 260 Koksay project Kazakhstan
Alsons Prime Investments Corp
Indophil Resources NL
Jan-15 255 Tampakan project Philippines
PanAust Ltd Xstrata Frieda River
Ltd Aug-14 125 Frieda River project Papua New Guinea
Boliden Mineral AB Altona Mining Ltd Oct-14 95 Kylylahti operating Finland
Investor Group Nesko Metal Sanayi
ve Ticaret AS May-14 65 Munella/Lakrosh operating Albania
RTG Mining Inc Sierra Mining Ltd May-14 60 Mabilo/Bunawan project Philippines
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INCENTIVE PRICE FOR NEW SUPPLY
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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MAJOR COPPER PROJECTS
Project Company Location Process Type Capacity
(000 tpa) Capex
(US$ M) Start Date
Aktogay Kaz Minerals Kazakhstan Conc/SX-EW New Project 104 2,300 Q4 2015/17
Antucoya Antofagasta Chile SX-EW New Project 85 1,900 H1 2015
Bozshakol Kazakhmys Kazakhstan Conc New Project 75 2,250 Q4 2015
Buenavista Southern Copper Mexico Conc Expansion 170 1,384 2015
Sentinel First Quantum Zambia Conc New Project 300 1,900 Mid-2015
Antapaccay Glencore Peru Conc Expansion 9 34 2016
Cerro Verde expansion
Freeport Peru Conc Expansion 272 4,600 2016
El Tesoro (Encuentro
Oxidos) Antofagasta Chile SX-EW Expansion 50 636 2016
Jabal Sayid Barrick/Maaden Saudi Arabia Conc New Project 45 350 2016
Las Bambas MMG/CITIC, Guoxin Intl
Peru Conc New Project 400 5,885 2016
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COMPANY REPORTED PLANNED NEW CAPACITY
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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COMPANY REPORTED PLANNED NEW CAPACITY
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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3 YEAR OUTLOOK FOR COPPER
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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Y-O-Y GROWTH RATES FORECAST TO 2017
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GLOBAL COPPER BALANCE FORECAST TO 2017
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GLOBAL COPPER BALANCE FORECAST TO 2017
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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WILDCARDS AND CAVEATS
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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Any
Questions?
THANK YOU [email protected]
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters