EGK 2011: Energy 01 LAFTO TURBINE
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Transcript of EGK 2011: Energy 01 LAFTO TURBINE
NEFAS New Energy For African Societies
Wind Energy Development in EthiopiaStatus quo, the Wind Energy PPP and Experiences from Aysha Wind Farm
Development
NEFAS New Energy For African Societies
Ethio-German Konnect presentation
Addis Ababa, November 09, 2011
2
NEFASAgenda
Status quo: Energy supply and demand situation in Ethiopia
Accessing funds and benefiting from public policy initiatives: PPP case study
Experiences from Ethiopian wind farm development: Aysha wind farm
3
NEFASEthiopia will need to add ~ 33 GW electricity over the next 20 years to enable economic growth prospects
GDP projection(2009-2030, in bln. PPP$)
Historical growth rate of 11.1% (CAGR)
Projected growth based on growth scenarios from IMF (9.5%), MOFED (11.0%), Ernst&Young (13.6%) and GTZ-ecbp (10.0%)
Electricity demand(2009-2030, in GWh)
Cumulative investment for power generation(2009-2030, in mil. US$)
79.0
178.6
560.4
CAGR 10.0 % p.a.
2009 2018 2030
1) Actual supply from EEPCo (EEPCo: Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, national energy supplying agency) in 2009, which was 43% below demand; 2) Based on an average capacity factor of 33.4%, derived from EEPCo planning; 3) Based on an average capacity factor of 47.0%; Source: EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009); IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2010); MOFED according to Fortune: “Gov’t: Economy to take off” (August 8, 2010); Ernst&Young Ethiopia: “Investing in Ethiopia” (September 2009); GTZ-ecbp: Human Capital and Economic Growth Evaluation Study of Ethiopia 2009-2030 (April 2009), based on Lisbon Council methodology and statistics from Central Statistics Agency (2008); IEA World Energy Outlook (2009); Own calculations
Based on comparable countries’ electricity consumption of 250 Wh per 1 PPP$: 68Wh (2009), 158Wh (2018) and 250Wh (2030)
Demand projection is in line with utility demand planning
International reference of investment costs of 2.0 mil. US$ per MW of installed capacity
Excluding costs for transmission/ grid and logistics
GDP and electricity projection for Ethiopia(2009-2030)
34,035 MW
3,728
28,859
140,131
1,500 MW
8,336 MW
1)
2009 2018 2030
3)
2)
~33 GW
2018 20302009
68,070
16,672
3,000
~65 bln. US$
4
NEFASOver the next 10 years, potential supply gaps could open up from uncertain hydro projects
[GWh]
Gibe IV1,472 MW
Gibe III1,870 MW
Electricity supply vs. domestic demand(2009- 2018, in GWh, in mil. US$)
Demand increases to 28,9 TWh until 2018
Average capacity factor improves from 28% today to 43% in 2018 with
Additional capacity requirement until 2018 is 6,836 MW
Supply assumptions
~ 50% of supply increase depends on only two projects in Gibe which have experienced delays in the past
Supply planning
Delayed supply scenario2)
Demand projection
Opportunity costs:8,823 mil. US$1)
Opportunity costs:236 mil. US$1)
1) Cost of foregone economic income at a price of ~ 52 US$ cents per kWh2) Gibe III and Gibe IV delayed by 3 yrs. eachSource: EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009); EEPCo: Ethiopian Power System Expansion Master Plan update (June 2006); NEFAS calculations
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NEFAS
Cumulative capacity costs, effects of financing levers1)
(2009-2030, in mil. US$)
Characteristics of wind energy in Ethiopia
Wind energy could play an important role to master this challenge and set the example for energy projects with a private institutional set-up
65,071
53,354
35,824
25,077
1. Complementary to hydro power
2. Pipeline to fill supply gaps and serve energy demand growth already exists
3. Potential to achieve long term growth prospects
4. Local value addition possible to finance immense capacity costs
5. Can trigger Ethiopian metal sector and offer high export potential
[mil. US$]
1) Capacity costs based on EEPCo planning for the period 2009 – 2018 and capacity needed to supply projected demand in following years; cost per MW for the period 2019 – 2030 of 2 mil. US$ Source: EEPCo Strategic Plan Summary (December 2009); IEA World Energy Outlook (2009); NEFAS calculations
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NEFAS
MesoboAshegoda
Aysha
Debre Birhan
Adama
Asela
Mega
MW: 50 Financing structure: tbd Finalization: 2012 -2015 Status quo: Pending
MW: 50 - 100 Financing structure: tbd Finalization: 2018 -2020 Status quo: Under construction
MW: 300+ Financing structure: EPC, Partnership Finalization: 2011 -2014 Status quo: Feasibility study completed
MW: 100 Financing structure: tbd Finalization: 2013 -2014 Status quo: Pending
MW: 120 Financing structure: EPC + Financing Finalization: 2012 -2013 Status quo: Under construction
MW: tbd Financing structure: tbd Finalization: 2018 -2020 Status quo: Pending
MW: 100+ Financing structure: EPC + Financing Finalization: 2013 -2015 Status quo: Under pre-feasibility study
Development target: ~ 1,000 MW until 2014, ~ 5,000 MW until 2030
Identified wind farm sites - mean annual wind power density(at 50 m in m/s)
Promising wind sites have been identified …
Speed (m/s)Density (W/m2)
1.0 -3.5
3.5 -5.6
5.6 -6.4
6.4 -7.0
7.0 -7.5
7.5 -8.0
8.0 -8.8
1 -50
50 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 400
400 - 500
500 - 600
600 - 800
>8.8>800
Source: EEPCo; NEFAS
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NEFAS… but the wind sector currently is in an early development stage
Status quo of Ethiopian wind sector(in MW)
AshegodaAdama I
AyshaAdama IAshegoda
Debre BirhanAyshaAdama IAshegoda
AselaAdama IIMesseboDebre BirhanAyshaAdama IAshegoda
OthersAselaAdama IIMesseboDebre BirhanAyshaAdama IAshegoda
5,000 -3,780
1,220 -350870 -400
470 -300170
Overview: ~ 5,000 MW potential to be
developed < 5% with feasibility studies > 3% under construction
Source: EEPCo; NEFAS
CONSTRUCTIONSTUDYPRE-STUDYIDENTIFIEDTOTAL MW
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NEFASAgenda
Status quo: energy supply and demand situation in Ethiopia
Accessing funds and benefiting from public policy initiatives: PPP case study
Experiences from Ethiopian wind farm development: Aysha wind farm
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NEFASSuccess depends on overcoming inter-depending hurdles along the value chain and financing local activities
Success factors in the Ethiopian environment
1.
Collaboration of key players along the value chain
2.
Acquisition of funds to finance local activities
3.
Combination of suitable technical solutions with financial sources
Source: NEFAS
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NEFAS
Inter-depending hurdles in Ethiopia(Exemplifications)
“There is not enough MW installed yet”
“No local project development
capacity”
“No local S&M, Operations capacity”
“No FIT, longevity for tariffs, low level of
tariffs”
“Limited possibility for private sector involvement”
….
Interest in Ethiopian wind is high – common resistance predominantly found in the market
1. Collaboration of key players along the value chain
Source: NEFAS experiences
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NEFASCollaboration of key players along the value chain is needed to get things started
OperationsConstructionManufacturingService and Maintenance
Supply chain management
Operations
Construction
Manufacturing
Service and Maintenance
Supply chain management
Project development
Capacity building on ministerial, institutional and private sector level
Policy dialogue on Prime Minister, Ministerial, Regulatory Level
Gaps along the value chain to be addressed
Source: NEFAS
1. Collaboration of key players along the value chain
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NEFASThe PPP avails the financial means to develop local capacity, finalize the feasibility studies and educate local HR
MINISTERIAL LEVEL Capacity development for Ministries and decision makers to formulate policies that foster the development of Ethiopian wind energy sector
Training on wind park development Feasibility studies Enabling policy environment (energy directives, FIT proclamation, etc.)
INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL Capacity development for universities and sector associations to integrate wind energy into existing curricula and service portfolios, to build up a future HR-Pool for an Ethiopian wind energy industry
Strategic partnerships between associations/ universities and the private sector Scholarships on wind energy topics in relevant areas Coaching by international specialists on curriculum enhancement
PRIVATE SECTOR LEVEL Setting the pace for the Ethiopian metal work sector to become future supplier for products and services
Strategic relationships of technology and management skills transfer Enhancement of private sector cooperation with universities Internships and placement programs in Ethiopia and in Europe
Total Budget for 3 Years: ~ 1.7 mil. EUR
Capacity development levels of the PPP 2. Acquisition of funds to finance local activities
Source: NEFAS
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NEFASThe PPP supports our local activities and helps us to build local capacity for the emerging industry
Oct. 2010Date
Key Activity
Private Goal
Public Goal
Aug. 2010 June. 2011 Nov. 2011Oct 2011Apr. 2011
Initiate the process of local capacity building
Identify the private opportunities of a PPP
Recruiting potential candidates for a PPP training program
Institutionalize another platform to enhance capacity building in general
Institutionalize a platform to support local activities
Initial training program for the wind energy fellowship
Transfer of knowledge and improved effectiveness of local capacity
Further refining process for the retaining of personnel
On-going trainings on personal effectiveness and project management
Upgrading opportunities for the facilities and tech-transfer
Setting up a production facility for the local components of WTG
Identification of a localization of components opportunity with local industries
Identifying parts to be localized and others to be imported – saving foreign currency
Capacity assessment of the local facilities
Support the education of local HR pool
Initiating the process of local production of the identified parts
Ongoing capacity assessment of the local facilities
Implementing Pre- evaluations
Commencing the program Progress made
Establishing a joint design team
Preliminary capacity assessment
Continued assessment
Continuous development of the process and
further identification of local partners
Time Line
Example 2: local capacity building
Source: NEFAS
2. Acquisition of funds to finance local activities
Build local capacity on local resource assessment process
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NEFASAgenda
Status quo: energy supply and demand situation in Ethiopia
Accessing funds and benefiting from public policy initiatives: PPP case study
Experiences from Ethiopian wind farm development: Aysha wind farm
15
NEFASLocation for the wind farm with promising site characteristics – 120 MW MoU and studies showing feasibility
SITE CHARACTERISTICS
Biweekly wind speeds (67m), standardized year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324Year in biweekly intervalls
Win
d v
elo
city
[m
/s]
Reliable, high average wind speeds during the year
Sandy gravel with strong load carrying capacity
Location close to grid and heavy duty all-weather road
Very flat terrain with some wind-bent vegetation
Source: Aysha feasibility studies
120 MW MoU
Site characteristics
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NEFASAysha 30 – 120 MW wind farm in Somali Regional State
Exclusive development rights for 120 MW installations at Aysha, Ethiopia; Aysha 30 is the initial 30 MW installation out of a projected total of 300 MW; the initial phase could be expanded up to 60 MW.
Favorable wind conditions have been confirmed for Aysha, in a location with easy access to 230 kV transmission line to Djibouti, as well as to overland road from Dire Dawa to Djibouti. Other feasibilities (environmental impact, grid assessment, transport study) are completed.
Ethio-German wind farm development joint venture in advanced discussions with three different turbine providers and two different construction companies for erection and local civil works joined by highly regarded and experienced operations and service companies, EnerVest and Renewco; local project office with staff of 5 (2 German, 3 Ethiopian).
Strong interest from African Development Bank and other multilateral institutions to fund the investment budget on the basis of a private sector governance regime.
Estimated time to "shovel-ready" status: 6-18 months.
Source: NEFAS
The wind farm and description of the status quo
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NEFAS
Capacity increase/ economic growth cycle
Source: NEFAS
Resulting from the institutional set-up, the financing structure is the key component in the cycle from capacity increase to economic growth
Tech transfer
Debt burden
Economic growth
Electricity demand
FDI
Local manufacturing
and value added
FinancingInstitutionalset-up
Capacity increase
Determines price per MW, FDI and potential for
technology transfer
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NEFAS
NEFAS – New Energy for African SocietiesProject OfficeZola Road, near Mozambique EmbassyAddis AbabaEthiopia
Mobile: +251 920 312 036
Email: [email protected]
Webpage: www.ethiopianwind.com
NEFAS