Effects-based Coalition Operations
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Transcript of Effects-based Coalition Operations
Ventures, Inc.
1
Effects-based Coalition Effects-based Coalition OperationsOperations
Maris “Buster” McCrabbKSCO Symposium
23 April 2002
Ventures, Inc.
2
My talk today consists My talk today consists of…of…
A brief description of the elements that comprise the theory of effects-based operations (EBO)
A brief discussion on the implications of EBO for knowledge systems in a coalition (non-homogeneous) environment
The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs and mechanism (I.e., my paper)
An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD research
Ventures, Inc.
3
Indicators
GlobalSituation
Awareness
CRISIS
AirObjectives
AirTasks T
ASK
LEVEL
ANALYSIS
Now
Air & SpaceControl
ForceSupport
Force Application
ForceEnhancement
EBO in One SlideEBO in One Slide
Bridge 4 Destroyed
Destroy Bridge 4
Disrupt
Delivery of POLEffect (Results)
Tasks (Actions)Destroy Bridge 6
Plan
Indicators
Bridge 6 Destroyed
Physical effects that lead to…
…desired behavioral outcomes.
Objects
Objects
Objects
Objects
Mechanism (Causes)
Mechanism (Causes)
Ventures, Inc.
4
Effects-Based Effects-Based OperationsOperations
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actionsproduce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time
"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1
Actions cause..
AttackMarshalling
Yards
…direct effects and...
..indirect effects
NormandyBattlefieldIsolated
GermanWar Economy
Collapsed
RailMovementDisrupted
MechanismMechanism
Mechanism
(cumulative)
(cascading)
Ventures, Inc.
5
Operation Allied Operation Allied ForceForceMilosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks(Military Effect)
Russian Diplomacy(Diplomatic Effect)
Sanctions, etc.(Economic Effect)
Kosovar Albanian Attacks(Military Effect)
Buildup of NATO Ground Power(Military-Diplomatic Effect)
Solidarity of NATO(Diplomatic Effect)
Ventures, Inc.
6
Operation Allied Operation Allied Force (2)Force (2)
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks on Strategic Targets
Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets
Air Attacks on National C2 Targets
Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets
Ventures, Inc.
7
Operation Allied Force Operation Allied Force (3)(3)
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions(total Desired Effect)
Degraded National C2
Attacks on Infrastructure(e.g., bridges)
Attacks on Electrical Power(e.g., plants)
Degraded Abilityto C2 FRY Forces
Degraded Abilityto Resupply Forces
Desired MilitaryEffects
PhysicalActions
Degraded IADS
Attack Serbian AF(e.g., aircraft, airbases)
Avoid Serbian SHORAD(e.g., fly above)
Freedom to Attack
Desired PoliticalEffects
Ventures, Inc.
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Information domain
Cognitive domain
Physical domain
“ground
truth”
Organization(structure, functions, capacity)
impacts
Observations (indicators), signals, communication
Mental models, decision-making
Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc.
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actionsproduce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time
Tasks for Knowledge Systems
The “domain” Of KS?
Ventures, Inc.
9
Semantic NetworkSemantic Network
Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA
Situation Awareness
Thickly Shared
ThinlyShared
Sha
red
thro
ugh
med
iati
on
All dimensional, multilateral
n-dimensional,bilateral
n-dimensional,bilateral
Belief Structures(Framing)
Models of(Simple) Causality
Actor B
Situation Awareness
Belief Structures(Framing)
Models of(Complex) Causality
Actor A
Situation Awareness
Belief Structures(Framing)
Models of(Complex) Causality
Actor N
(not all shown)
AFRL EBO ATD External AFRL EBO ATD External RelationshipsRelationships
Organization Relationship
AFC2ISRC/ESC
AFRL/HE
AFSAA
Boeing
DARPA
JWAC
JFCOM
NAIC
• Our sponsors• Working technology transition via AT AOC
• Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO) capabilities
• Models for Homeland Defense
• CRDA: EBO & Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft
• Leveraging TS & adversary response work • Provided FY01 funds; FY02 funds planned
• Leveraging their TS models: adversary response work
• Part of Joint EBO team• Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts
• Leveraging their TS models: telecommunications, C2 Process• Plan to provide some FY02 funding
AFRL EBO Related Research AFRL EBO Related Research EffortsEfforts
• Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling– Basic Research Initiatives (6.1)
– Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass)
– Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive Battlespace Awareness (UConn)
• COA Development for Time Critical Targeting– Applied Research Initiative (6.2)
– Effects-based COA development for TCTs
– Software agents for monitoring and alert
• Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO– Phase II SBIR
– Assess current AOC and JTF processes for incorporation of EBO
– Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of EBO
– Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to automate metrics use