The Effects-Based Approach and Effects-Based Operations
description
Transcript of The Effects-Based Approach and Effects-Based Operations
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The Effects-Based ApproachThe Effects-Based Approachandand
Effects-Based OperationsEffects-Based Operations
Presentation to ISMOR 30 Aug 05Presentation to ISMOR 30 Aug 05
Lt Col Jim PottsLt Col Jim PottsJoint Doctrine and Concepts CentreJoint Doctrine and Concepts Centre
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Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach
‘‘An Effects-Based Approach involves the An Effects-Based Approach involves the comprehensive, integrated application of all comprehensive, integrated application of all
instruments of Alliance power, both military and instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign Effects which non-military, to create campaign Effects which
achieve desired outcomes.’achieve desired outcomes.’
NATO Bi-Strategic Command Strategic Vision
• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Focus upon Outcomes to address causesFocus upon Outcomes to address causes• Complementary approach to SituationsComplementary approach to Situations
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Effects-BasedEffects-BasedAlready doing Effects?Already doing Effects?
AfghanistanAfghanistan
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Effects-BasedEffects-BasedAlready doing Effects?Already doing Effects?
Sierra LeoneSierra Leone
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• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketNeed for simplicity and preserve place of intuitionNeed for simplicity and preserve place of intuition
• Logical development of Manoeuvrist Approach Logical development of Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be
developeddeveloped• Everybody’s business; Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Multinational, Joint and
Inter-AgencyInter-Agency
Presentation AimPresentation Aim
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Beware confusing Effects and Actions – Beware confusing Effects and Actions – Effects are the results of actionsEffects are the results of actions
All Combat Operations have an All Combat Operations have an ‘EFFECT’‘EFFECT’
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EffectsEffects
The physical or cognitive consequence(s) at any The physical or cognitive consequence(s) at any level within the Strategic Environment of one or level within the Strategic Environment of one or more military or non-military actions.more military or non-military actions.
• Effects can be:• Primary or Subsequent (second, third order etc)
• Intended or unintended
• Desired or undesired
• Decisive/Enabling
• Applied to friendly, adversary or neutral parties
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Three Block WarThree Block War
‘In one moment in time our service members will be feeding and clothing displaced refugees -
providing humanitarian assistance. In the next moment, they will be holding two warring tribes
apart - peacekeeping. Finally, they will be fighting a highly lethal mid-intensity battle. All in the same
day, all within three city blocks.’Gen C C KrulakComdt USMC2000
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The Strategic EnvironmentThe Strategic Environment
Military(Recognised OperationalPicture)
Economic
Political
Technological
Social & Cultural
Legal, Ethical & Moral
Dimensions
Physical(Recognised EnvironmentalPicture)
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End
StateEnd
State
Military
Diplomatic Line of Operation
Economic
EBO: Military Operations within a EBO: Military Operations within a Wider ContextWider Context
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• Exposes complexityExposes complexity• Causal linkagesCausal linkages
• Includes non-military lines of operationIncludes non-military lines of operation• Better identification of actions to achieve EffectsBetter identification of actions to achieve Effects
• Better orchestration of actionsBetter orchestration of actions• Leading to greater synergy of Effects andLeading to greater synergy of Effects and• Better mitigation of undesired EffectsBetter mitigation of undesired Effects
• Addresses both physical and cognitive domainsAddresses both physical and cognitive domains• Influence will, shape perceptionsInfluence will, shape perceptions• Adversaries, neutrals and alliesAdversaries, neutrals and allies
• Focus decision-makersFocus decision-makers
Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach
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• Applicable at the strategic, operational and Applicable at the strategic, operational and tactical levelstactical levels
• Supports enduring outcomes Supports enduring outcomes • In-depth understanding of the environment – In-depth understanding of the environment –
Risk analysisRisk analysis
Effects-Based ApproachEffects-Based Approach
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EtcEtc Etc Etc Etc
FRFR FR FR FR
USUS US US US
Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach
MODFCO DfID Treasury Home Office
NGONGO
NGONGO
PMCPMC
PMCPMC
Commercial CompanyCommercial Company
Commercial CompanyCommercial Company
Greater chance of successGreater chance of success
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Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach
J D C CAttacking enemy will and cohesion and…Attacking enemy will and cohesion and…
The Manoeuvrist ApproachThe Manoeuvrist Approach
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‘‘Until now they have refused to do battle with Until now they have refused to do battle with us. They are just going places.’us. They are just going places.’
Mohammed Saeed al-SahhafMohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf
Government of IraqGovernment of Iraq Information MinisterInformation Minister
…….avoiding his strengths..avoiding his strengths.
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Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
• AnalyseAnalyse
• PlanPlan
• ExecuteExecute
• AssessAssess
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Analysis
- Understand the Strategic Environment
- Information gathering - long term
- Real-time monitoring - short term
Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
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Analysis - ImplicationsAnalysis - Implications
• Need to understand consequencesNeed to understand consequences• First, second, third orderFirst, second, third order• Desired and undesiredDesired and undesired• CumulativeCumulative
• Cultural understandingCultural understanding
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Cultural IntelligenceCultural Intelligence
‘‘We needed cultural intelligence going in. We needed to We needed cultural intelligence going in. We needed to understand how the cultures tick, who makes the decisions, understand how the cultures tick, who makes the decisions, what things are taboo, what things are more acceptable. We what things are taboo, what things are more acceptable. We
go in and apply western logic and a western culture go in and apply western logic and a western culture approach and we always miss the boat. We need a strong approach and we always miss the boat. We need a strong sense of how to operate within their framework and a need sense of how to operate within their framework and a need
to understand how they operate.’to understand how they operate.’
General Anthony ZinniGeneral Anthony Zinni
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Planning
Analysis
- Identify coherent physical and cognitive Effects (including undesired)
- Identify Actions to achieve Effects
Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
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Planning - ImplicationsPlanning - Implications
• Collaborative planning across the JTF and Collaborative planning across the JTF and ComponentsComponents
• Inter-agencyInter-agency• How to influence non-military actors?How to influence non-military actors?
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Planning Execution
Analysis
- Collaborative orchestration of activity to realise desired Effects
Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
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Execution - ImplicationsExecution - Implications
• Integrated Joint FiresIntegrated Joint Fires• LiaisonLiaison
• Mil - milMil - mil• Mil - non milMil - non mil
• Direct InfluenceDirect Influence
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Planning Execution
Assessment
Analysis
-Measure success of Actions
- Establish progress towards Strategic Aim
Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
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Assessment - ImplicationsAssessment - Implications
• Measures of EffectivenessMeasures of Effectiveness• Articulation of required EffectsArticulation of required Effects• Active, coherent information gatheringActive, coherent information gathering
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Planning Execution
Assessment
Analysis
Parallel Processes/Activities
Effects-Based Approach to Effects-Based Approach to OperationsOperations
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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships
The Strategic Aim is attained by achieving one or more Objectives.
Strategic Aim
Obj 1 Obj 2 Obj 3
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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships
An Objective is achieved by an aggregation of Effects
Objective
Effect 1
Effect 2
Effect 3
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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships
Conduct an Action in order that an Effect is realised
Effect
Action
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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships
E
A A A A
E
A
A
E
A A A
A
A
E
A
E
E
A
EE
E
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Effects - RelationshipsEffects - Relationships
A A
A
E E E E
A A A A
E E E E
A A
A
A A
Strategic Level
Operational Level
Tactical Level
A A A A
E E E
Obj
Obj
Obj
E E E
Obj
A A A
A
E E
As
Obj
E
A
Obj
E E
Obj
Strategic Aim
A
A
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Effects Development PlanEffects Development Plan
• Draw together disparate strands of developmentDraw together disparate strands of development• Identify and implement other workIdentify and implement other work• Establish an Integrated Analysis and Establish an Integrated Analysis and
Experimentation Campaign Plan (IAECP)Experimentation Campaign Plan (IAECP)• Align with Multi-national developmentsAlign with Multi-national developments
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Analytical ConceptAnalytical Concept
• Optimal execution is reliant upon technical Optimal execution is reliant upon technical enablersenablers• Network Enabled CapabilityNetwork Enabled Capability• Knowledge DatabasesKnowledge Databases• Predictive ToolsPredictive Tools• Models to replicate complex human-based systemsModels to replicate complex human-based systems
• Analytical Concept – Full Capability 2015+Analytical Concept – Full Capability 2015+• Assessment and Analysis activitiesAssessment and Analysis activities
• Varying levels of developmentVarying levels of development
• Planning and ExecutionPlanning and Execution• Iterative DevelopmentIterative Development
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Joint Doctrine NoteJoint Doctrine Note
• Lt Col Simon Scott RM - JDCC/PJHQ LiaisonLt Col Simon Scott RM - JDCC/PJHQ Liaison• JDN 01/05JDN 01/05
• Provides Interim (Short-Term) GuidanceProvides Interim (Short-Term) Guidance• Strategic, Operational, and Tactical InterfaceStrategic, Operational, and Tactical Interface• Publication Sep 05Publication Sep 05
• Longer-term: Revise JDP 01, JWPs 2, 3 and 5Longer-term: Revise JDP 01, JWPs 2, 3 and 5• Autumn 06?Autumn 06?
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• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Comprehensive Approach to SituationsComprehensive Approach to Situations• Focus upon OutcomesFocus upon Outcomes
• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket• Does not replace Does not replace TasksTasks and and PurposePurpose• Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be
developeddeveloped• Everybody’s business; Multinational, Everybody’s business; Multinational, Joint and Joint and
Inter-AgencyInter-Agency
Summary: EBA – A Way of ThinkingSummary: EBA – A Way of Thinking
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• Longer term view of strategic changeLonger term view of strategic change• Comprehensive Approach to SituationsComprehensive Approach to Situations• Focus upon OutcomesFocus upon Outcomes
• It is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacketIt is an approach not a doctrinal strait-jacket• Does not replace Does not replace TasksTasks and and PurposePurpose• Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach Complementary to the Manoeuvrist Approach • Support systems and processes yet to be Support systems and processes yet to be
developeddeveloped• Everybody’s businessEverybody’s business; Multinational, ; Multinational, Joint and Joint and
Inter-AgencyInter-Agency
Summary: EBA – A Way of ThinkingSummary: EBA – A Way of Thinking
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Questions?Questions?