Introductions: who are you?

Everyone sit close to front Introduce yourself to neighbours Icebreakers: If you could wake up with any 1 ability tomorrow, what would it be? Which superhero did the most good?

Concretetoolsforfiguringouthowtodothemost

goodHaukeHillebrandt

DirectorofResearchatGivingWhatWeCan

What is “Effective Altruism”?

•  www.effectivealtruism.org • Sign up for our newsletter

•  Givewell.org •  Check out the AMF report

•  Open Philanthropy Project •  Check out the CGD grant writeup

What is “Effective Altruism”?

• Effective altruism is a philosophy and social movement

• The core idea: • Effective altruism is using evidence and analysis to take actions that help others as much as possible.

Academic research (from 80,000 hours):

Earnings: Don’t worry

• Projected GDP per capita in the UK will be 130,000 USD by 2040

Howdoyouevaluateacharity,causearea,orsocialbusinessopportunity?

ITNFramework

• Importance–Whatisthescaleoftheproblem?• Howmanypeopledoesitaffect?• Howbadlydoesitaffectthem?

• Tractability–HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?• Neglectedness/Crowdedness–howmanypeopleareworkingonitalready?

ITNframework:ExampleDeworming

Importance:Globaldisabilityburden

Interactive exercise: Global Burden of Disease Study http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ Task 1: figure out what a DALY and QALY is! Task 2: play around with the settings to find something that surprises you.

YLD Years Lived with Disability - the amount a disease affects someone is given a disability weight. The disability weight is multiplied by the number of years lived with that disease to calculate YLD

YLL Years of Life Lost - the number of years of potential life lost (relative to an idealised life expectancy) from a particular disease or risk factor. This is equal to a disability weight of 1.

DALY Disability-adjusted life year; a measure of disease burden which quantifies both morbidity and mortality; calculated by summing YLL and YLD. The cost-effectiveness is measured in $ per DALY averted.

QALY Quality-adjusted life year - similar to a DALY but measures the inverse (a QALY is good and measure QALYs gained, while a DALY is bad and we measure DALYs averted). The cost-effectiveness is measured in $ per QALY gained.

Tractability:HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?

Tractability:HoweffecDvelycanwesolveit?

Intractable: CRISPR?

Prison reform in the US

Less tractable: basic income?

Neglectedness/Crowdedness:VaccinaDons?

RoomformorefundingforNeglectedTropicalDiseases:billionseveryyear

GatesFoundaDonAnnualBudget

Neglectedness/Crowdedness

Scien>ficEngagement

DiseaseBurden

Questions about neglectedness: •  What is the median consumption per capita in Germany? •  What is the median consumption (PPP adjusted) in the poorest country on the planet? •  How much do we spend in the Germany spend on health per person per year on average? •  What is the upper bound for the DRC?

Gesundheitsbudget in Deutschland

• Etwa 4000 € pro Person pro Jahr

• Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf Demokratische Republik Kongo: 648 Dollar pro Jahr!

•  How much do we spend for one healthy year of life? •  How much does it cost to avert a DALY globally? • Value of a statistical life? • $ per death prevented in the developing world?

Neglectedness policy: climate change vs. antibiotic resistance vs AI safety

ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses

• Health:Whatdoesayearofhealthylifecost?Howmuchdoesitcosttosavealife?

• Wealth:Netpresentvalueanalysis:whataretheeconomic,social,environmentalbenefitperdollar?Whatisthebenefitcost-raDo?

Health:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:whatdoesayearofhealthylifecost?Howmuchdoesitcosttosavealife?

• DiseaseControlPrioriDes2

Health:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Yearsofhealthylifeadded?

• DiseaseControlPrioriDes2

Wealth:ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis

• CopenhagenConsensusCenter‘EconomistGraph’

ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis

ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis?

Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90

ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis? Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90Deworming Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$50

(Bairdetal.2012)

ComparaDvecost-effecDvenessanalyses:Netpresentvalueanalysis? Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$0.90Deworming Netpresentvalueperdollar:~$50

(Bairdetal.2012)

ExpectedValuecalculaDon:$50*2%=$1->sDllbeatscashtransfer

HowdoyoufindinformaDon?

Effec>vealtruists…

…weloveepistemicrigorandhigh-qualityevidence…weliketofigureoutwherewe’rewrong…we’rewillingtochangeourmindsbasedongoodevidenceandsolidreasoning

scholar

Google scholar: deworming

Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis

• Micronutrient Deficiencies • SMS reminders for vaccinations • Prevention of HIV/AIDS • Climate Change • Your own favourite cause • Find a new cause area

US Poverty Global poverty

Scale 46m on $20 per day

1bn+ on $1 per day

Neglectedness $900bn welfare $130bn aid

Solvability Most interventions don’t work

Cash transfers work

Global Poverty vs US Poverty

Exercise: Google scholar search and ITN analysis

Reading: • https://80000hours.org/articles/problem-framework

Importance:Iodinedeficiency

Tractability:TotalAddi>onalAnnualCostofAchieving90%CoveragewithNutri>onInterven>ons

Nutrition interventions Cost Salt iodisation $68 Multiple micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy (includes iron-folate)

$472

Calcium supplementation in pregnancy $1914 Energy-protein supplementation in pregnancy $972

Vitamin A supplementation in childhood $106 Zinc supplementation in childhood $1182

Breastfeeding promotion $653 Complementary feeding education $269

Complementary feeding supplementation $1359

Severe acute Malnutrition management $2563

Total $9559 64

scholar

Whatisanaturalexperiment?

SaltIodizaDonintheUnitedStatesinthe1920sandinfluenceonI.Q.–Feyreretal.•  Theylookedatdatafrom2millionparDcipants

1920:

1925:

1926:

Giving What We Can !- ~2200 members have pledged to donate to effective organisations - 800 million dollar pledges - 10 Million Dollar donated - 4 Million Dollar in the next year

The “Giving What We Can” Pledge

•  “I recognise that I can use part of my income to do a significant amount of good. Since I can live well enough on a smaller income, I pledge that for the rest of my life or until the day I retire, I will give 10% percent of what I earn to whichever organisations can most effectively use it to improve the lives of others mprove the lives of others, now and in the years to come. I make this pledge freely, openly, and sincerely.”

£50 £

£

£

£

1 year of healthy life

100 children dewormed

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

$

$

Save several lives =

=

1% for students!!! !

MORE INFORMATION ON: Website:

Blog: Facebook: Twitter:

givingwhatwecan.org

givingwhatwecan.org/blog

facebook.com/givingwhatwecan

twitter.com/givingwhatwecan

Thank You

Conclusion

• UsetheITNFramework:•  Importance•  Tractable•  Neglected•  Cost-effecDve

• UseGoogleScholar•  Clickthecitedbybukontoseewhatotherexpertshavetosayaboutatopic•  CreateAlertsforyourfavouritetopics

• Naturalexperimentsarecool

Malaria