Early warning and Acute food insecurity analysis: …FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 6 Two food...
Transcript of Early warning and Acute food insecurity analysis: …FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 6 Two food...
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Early warning and Acute food insecurity
analysis: introduction to CH process
Nigeria CH Foundational Training
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
1
Overview
What is early warning?
Some concepts
Guiding principles for acute food insecurity analysis
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
2
FOOD SECURITY EARLY WARNING AND
DECISION SUPPORT
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
3
What is early warning and why we need it?
The risk: food insecurity (common working base)
Tools for predicting and assessing food insecurity by providing short-
term information for the development of emergency plans to save
lives through observations collected by various services.
Data collection Analysis Disseminate Response
A set of tools and methods for anticipating the deterioration of
food security - facilitating decision-making
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
4
Purpose
• To prevent famine and mitigate food insecurity by providing decision makers with information that is accurate, credible, timely, and actionable.
• National structured body to provide timely early warning and vulnerability analysis.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
5
What is Food Security ?
“Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels [is achieved] when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. FAO, 1996
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Household food security is the application of this concept to the family level, with individuals within households as the focus of concern. (2001 – 2015)
Food insecurity exists when people do not have adequate physical, social or economic access to food as defined above.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
6
Two food insecurity conditions: acute and chronic
Acute food insecurity is any food insecurity found at a
specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or
livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or
duration.
Chronic food insecurity is food insecurity that persists over
time mainly due to structural causes. This persistence is
determined based on analysis of conditions under non-
exceptional circumstances (NECs).
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
7
Decision-support implications
Acute food insecurity and chronic food insecurity are not mutually
exclusive. An area or household can experience acute or chronic
food insecurity, or both simultaneously. Recurrent acute food
insecurity is often related to chronic food insecurity in a bi-
directional relationship of cause-and-effect.
To address acute food insecurity it is appropriate to have short-
term strategic objectives.
Chronic food insecurity, however, requires medium- and long-term
strategic objectives to address associated underlying factors.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
8
CILSS and partners monitoring initiatives
CH for acute food insecurity and emergency responses
following a shock
CILSS AND PARTNERS ongoing initiative to address chronic
food insecurity that persists due to structural underlying
causes under non-exceptional circumstances (NECs).
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
9
TERMINOLOGIES AND FRAMEWORK
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
10
The Disaster Risk Reduction framework (DRR)
RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity)
Food Security Early warning is a form of disaster risk analysis.
Analysts use the terminology consistent with the internationally
recognized DRR framework to conduct their analysis.
Disaster risk (or the risk of food insecurity) is normally
understood as a function of a hazard and the vulnerability of
the population to the hazards (and, similarly, its adaptive
capacity).
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
11
CH conceptually aligned with the Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR) framework
RISK = ƒ (Hazard, Vulnerability, Coping Capacity)
Here, we are examining the risk of acute food insecurity for a particular area and population of concern
At this level, we consider the magnitude of likely hazards (for example, drought, above-average staple food prices, an influx of displaced populations)
We use livelihood information to evaluate household vulnerability to the hazards (how will they impact food/income sources?)
We look at how households respond to or cope with the hazards
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
12
Hazard, vulnerability
Hazard: the probability of occurrence of a potentially
damaging phenomenon - the threat of a stress or
perturbation to a system and its value;
Vulnerability: the degree to which a person, system or unit
is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations
or stresses.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
13
What are shocks?
An atypical event or series of events (either rapid or slow-onset)
that will have a significant impact on household food or income
sources or expenditures, either directly or indirectly.
Shocks can also be thought of as anomalies.
Shocks or anomalies expected to occur in the future (during the
analysis period);
Shocks can be positive (eg, a significantly better harvests than
normal) or negative (eg poor harvests or higher food prices).
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
14
Additional useful concepts
What are food security conditions?
What are food security impacts?
What are food security outcomes?
Why do we care?
Outcomes refer to the final situation faced by households once all conditions, impacts,
coping capacity, and response have been analyzed. Outcomes (e.g. nutritional status)
describe if households are able to access and utilize the food needed for a healthy life.
Direct and indirect effects of conditions on the food and income sources and
expenditures of households. For example, poor crop conditions will impact demand for
harvest labor, a key source of income for poor households.
External circumstances and influences related to food security, including factors such as
seasonal progress, food prices, and labor demand.
1. Unlike the other terms, outcomes are comparable. 2. Using terms correctly helps us
arrive at and pinpoint food security outcomes – what we are ultimately seeking to
determine.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
15
Examples of food security conditions
Animal
body
conditions
Market
functioning
Terms of
trade
Milk
availability
Political/
policy
context
Recent crop
production
levels
Labor
demand
Livestock
prices
Wage levels
Trade
context
Remittance
flows Livestock or
crop disease
Crop
conditions
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
16
Quick recall of the IPC/CH Analytical Framework
Food
security
conditions
Impacts
Outcomes
The weight given to
these 3 outcomes
corresponds to the
degree to which they
are related to food
security
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
17
HOUSEHOLDS RELATED OUTCOMES
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
18
Food consumption outcomes
Primarily looking at diet quantity
Could rely on direct evidence (e.g. outcome indicator), or inferred evidence
(e.g. outcome of livelihoods-based analysis)
Answers these questions:
Are households in the area of concern currently meeting basic food
needs? Why or why not?
How are they meeting basic food needs (if so)? Through seasonally
typical means, such as crop production or purchases? Or through less
common means, such as food aid or atypical selling of productive assets?
Is emergency assistance being delivered in the area of concern? To what
degree is it reducing food and income deficits?
Are households able to afford the expenditures needed to maintain
current livelihoods? (This is a food consumption indicator!)
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
19
Livelihood change outcomes
Primarily looking at ability to maintain current livelihoods and different
strategies households use to respond to current or expected food consumption
deficits –may include expansion of current livelihoods strategies (e.g.
increasing livestock sales) or new strategies (e.g. sale of agricultural tools).
Answers these questions:
How are people meeting their minimum food and non-food needs?
Through seasonally typical means? Or through less common means, such
as atypical selling of productive assets?
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
20
Reminder - livelihoods outcomes must be related to
food security
• Outcomes of livelihoods change should
NOT include:
• Consumption-based strategies (e.g.
reducing number of meals or portion
size, shifting to less preferred foods
– these fall under Food Consumption)
• Loss of livelihoods or loss of assets
due to a shock (e.g. loss of livestock
due to conflict)
• Shift in livelihoods for reasons other
than current or expected food
consumption gaps (ie climate
change).
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
21
Household
Dietary
Diversity
Score
(HDDS)
Food
Consumption
Score
(FCS)
Coping
Strategies
Index
(CSI)
Household
Economy
Approach
(HEA)
Household
Hunger
Scale
(HHS)
Food consumption and livelihood change can be
directly measured…
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
22
AREA RELATED OUTCOMES
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
23
Global
Acute
Malnutrition
(GAM)
Crude
Death Rate
(CDR)
Body Mass
Index
(BMI)
Under Five
Death Rate
(U5DR)
As with household level outcomes, acute
malnutrition and mortality rate can be directly
measured….
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
24
REMEMBER:
For both nutrition and mortality area outcomes, household food consumption deficits must be an explanatory factor in order for that evidence to be used in support of a classification.
We are classifying food insecurity as our outcome NOT nutritional status or mortality
We use a convergence of evidence approach to do this;
Just because levels of acute malnutrition (and mortality) are high does not necessarily mean that the phase of food insecurity must be very high. - Malnutrition levels can be high even if HH food consumption deficits are not there;
We must be aware of background levels of acute malnutrition and underlying causes of malnutrition;
For example, elevated malnutrition due to disease outbreak or lack of health access – if it is determined to not be related to food consumption deficits – should not be used as evidence for an IPC/CH classification.
Similarly, excess mortality rates due to murder or conflict – if they are not related to food consumption deficits – should not be used as evidence for a Phase classification.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
25
CONVERGENCE OF EVIDENCE
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
26
Develop an evidence base for your classification
Outcome
indicator
Summary of Available Evidence
Food
Consumption
FCS: 17% of hh with “poor” or “borderline” FCS
HDDS: 6 food groups compared to 7 food groups last year
Households reported reduced consumption of the main staple, rice,
and above-average reliance on wild food consumption for this
time of year.
Livelihood change • FEWS NET field assessment in July 2015 (last month) reported
normal livelihood activities with no use of atypical coping
• Households report migrating to regional center, although is
seasonally normal
Nutritional status GAM: 15.7%
Mortality CDR: 0.33; U5DR: .97
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
27
Direct evidence (e.g. HH energy intake, HDDS, rCSI, FCS,
evidence of distressed coping
strategies)
Indirect evidence (e.g. influence of conflict on access to
food, terms of trade)
Food consumption Livelihoods change
How do you make a HH level classification?
The golden rule for analysis and classification:
convergence of evidence
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
28
Remember, the evidence should converge toward
the phase descriptions
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
29
Looking for the convergence of evidence
Outcome indicator
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
Food Consumption
X
Livelihood change X
Nutritional status X
Mortality X
IPC 2.0 Area Phase Classification
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
30
PHASE 1
Minimal
Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable
coping strategies.
PHASE 2
Stressed
Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford
some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies.
PHASE 3
Crisis
Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food
needs through unsustainable coping strategies.
URGENT
ACTION
REQUIRED
PHASE 4
Emergency
Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing
extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption
gaps.
PHASE 5
Famine
Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs.
Starvation, death, and destitution are evident1.
! Phase classification would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance.
Source: FEWS NET
1 Famine (IPC Phase 5) is defined as the situation in which three conditions are met: at least 20 percent of an area’s population faces an extreme
lack of food, at least 30 percent of children are acutely malnourished, and the crude death rate exceeds 2/10,000/day.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
31
GUIDING PRINCIPLES
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
32
Monitoring, assessment, decision-support
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
33
Seasonal Calendar
Outlook Period
Source: FEWS NET
APR APR
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
APR APR
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
Off-season harvest
Livestock migration S to N
Agricultural lean season
Rainy season
Main season cultivation
Livestock migration N to S
Main harvest
Pastoral lean seasonPeak labor demand
for harvesting
Peak labor demandfor off-season
agriculture
Household labor
migration
Peak labor demandfor weeding and harvesting
Household labor migration
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
34
Livelihood-based analysis disaggregates food and
income sources by season and by wealth group
Would a spike in staple food prices have the
same impact during this period….. ….as in this period?
Why or why not?
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
35
Guiding principles for Food security analysis
Classification focuses on food security outcomes
Shocks Impacts Outcomes
• Food crop
production
will be 30
percent
below
normal due
to drought.
• Households will sell 30
percent less grain and will
sell earlier than normal >
Moderate reduction in
income from cereal crop
sales
• Less grain will be
available on the market >
prices to rise by more than
normal starting in Jun-Jul
Response
• Poor households
will increase
reliance on
remittances and
send one
additional house
member to labor in
urban areas
• Poor households in
the SG19 LHZ will
face food deficits of
~25% during the
months of August-
October.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
36
CH principles
Institutional anchoring of the CH: lead, ensured by the
coordinating national Food and nutritional information system;
Neutrality during the analysis: neutral, consensual and
inclusive analysis and with the contributions of a maximum of
stakeholders;
Proactive communication of the CH results : To decision
makers, NGOs, Donors, etc.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
37
Minimum Standards
Analysts should observe neutrality and be independent-minded
in the quest for consensus.
The following standards are required in CH analysis process:
o The CH analysis team includes all technical stakeholders in
areas related to food and nutrition security;
o All stakeholders must share in full transparency all evidence
they hold and that enables current and projected situation
analysis;
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
38
Minimum Standards
Analysts have to work together as a team to produce reliable
information that reflect to the maximum extent possible the
reality of food and nutrition situation, based on reliable
evidence and using a participatory, inclusive and consensual
approach.
In some countries, local specific factors (lack of reliable or
updated data, etc.) can prevent the application of all required
standards. In such a case, there is a need to ensure that the
food and nutrition situation analysis conforms to the guidelines
on consensus provided in the CH manual.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
39
For More Information
Laouali Ibrahim
West Regional FEWS NET Representative
Tel.: 777-876-494
Dakar, Senegal
To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net