Earlier spring causing reduced nitrogen availability in ... · We performed 100 Monte Carlo...

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATIONDOI: 10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.133

NATURE PLANTS | www.nature.com/natureplants 1

Supplemental Material Sensitivity analysis of effect size on core chronology To evaluate the sensitivity of our results to the potential for missing or false tree rings, or any other sources of error in core chronology (e.g., the possibility for N translocation between tree rings), a sensitivity analysis was performed in which 1%, 5%, and 10% of the cores were sampled at random for artificial tampering. For each sampled core a ring was either added or taken away from the bark end of the core. This procedure changed the alignment between measurements of ring width, δ13C and δ15N in ring wood, and year and phenology for the cores sampled for tampering. Any of our results that are sensitive to the exact alignment of these measurements will be influenced by this sensitivity analysis. We performed 100 Monte Carlo simulations at each of the three random sampling levels, repeatedly modeled the effects of year, spring anomaly, region, and species on δ15N (i.e., the model presented in Table S4), and constructed histograms of the resulting effects of year and spring anomaly on δ15N (Figure S10). This sensitivity analysis revealed that the effects of year and spring anomaly are robust to a range of core tampering. As the fraction of cores sampled for tampering increases some random permutations result in either an increase or a decrease in the effect size (both effects). However, the trend of δ15N with time is always negative and the effect of an earlier spring is always positive.

Earlier spring causing reduced nitrogen availability in North American eastern deciduous forests

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2016.133

2 NATURE PLANTS | www.nature.com/natureplants

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.133

Crosswalk between path diagram (Figure 2) and model tables

!me

DOYaut Δ13C

DOYspr δ15N

BAI

Modifieda;erdoublingd13Cdataandswitchingtodiscrimina!on

1a

1b

2

1c,2,3

34

1d,4,5

5

6

7

1e,7,8,9,10

8

9

10

Model Model Equation Reference

1a Spring anomaly ~ year + region + species Table S1

1b Autumn anomaly ~ year + region + species Table S2

1c δ15N ~ year + region + species Table S3

1d Δ13C ~ year + region + species Table S6

1e BAI ~ year + region + species Table S10

2 δ15N ~ Spring anomaly + year + region + species Table S4

Figure 3B

3 δ15N ~ Autumn anomaly + year + region + species Table S5

4 Δ13C ~ Spring anomaly + year + region + species

Δ13C ~ Spring anomaly + δ15N + year + region + species

Table S18

Table S19

5 Δ13C ~ Autumn anomaly + year + region + species Table S7

6 δ15Nslope ~ d13Cslope + region + species

δ15Nslope ~ iWUEslope + region + species

δ15N ~ Δ13C + year + region + species

Table S8

Table S9

Table S16

Figure 3A

7 BAI ~ δ15N + year + region + species

BAIslope ~ δ15Nslope + region + species

Table S13

Table S14

8 Δ13C ~ BAI + year + region + species

iWUEslope ~ BAIslope + region + species

Table S17

Table S15

9 BAI ~ Spring anomaly + year + region + species Table S11

10 BAI ~ Autumn anomaly + year + region + species Table S12

Figures S1-S10

_̂

_̂

_̂

_̂

Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA

CATO

HAFE

PRWI

GRSM

WV

VA

NC

SC

TN

GAAL

KY

PA

MD

NJ

DEOHIN

IL

MS

Harpers Ferry National Historical Park (HAFE) Prince William Forest Park (PRWI)

Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO)

Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM)

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 10 205

Miles

Canopy Coverage of Mid Atlantic Study Region

%0

20

40

60

80

100%

%

%

%

%

Canopy Cover Start of SpringDay of Year

NPS 2008

Boundary

Study Sites

150

105

60

FigureS1:LocationmapofsitesacrossthefourstudyregionsspanningAppalachianOakmesophyticforestoftheeasternUnitedStates.





Figures S1-S10

_̂

_̂

_̂

_̂

Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA

CATO

HAFE

PRWI

GRSM

WV

VA

NC

SC

TN

GAAL

KY

PA

MD

NJ

DEOHIN

IL

MS

Harpers Ferry National Historical Park (HAFE) Prince William Forest Park (PRWI)

Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO)

Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM)

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 1 20.5

Miles

0 10 205

Miles

Canopy Coverage of Mid Atlantic Study Region

%0

20

40

60

80

100%

%

%

%

%

Canopy Cover Start of SpringDay of Year

NPS 2008

Boundary

Study Sites

150

105

60

FigureS1:LocationmapofsitesacrossthefourstudyregionsspanningAppalachianOakmesophyticforestoftheeasternUnitedStates.





50 150 250 3500.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

DOY

Vege

tatio

n fra

ctio

n

Figure S2: A typical plot of vegetation fraction (from Landsat) vs. day of year (DOY). The data presented span 1984-2013, but have been organized by DOY. Green and orange symbols represent observations appropriately timed for the measurement of spring and autumn anomalies, respectively. Vertical lines represent the mean spring onset and autumn offset at this example site.

290 295 300 305

120

125

130

135

140

Autumn offset

Sprin

g on

set

r = −0.63; P < 0.0001

Figure S3: Spring onset DOY vs. autumn offset DOY across sites (n = 113). Mean spring onset (DOY = 129) and autumn offset (DOY = 298) are represented by dotted lines.

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510

15 A All

R2 = 0.06P < 0.001

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B CATO

R2 = 0.07P < 0.001

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

D PRWI

R2 = 0.2P < 0.001

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Sprin

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

−15

−10

−50

510

15 E GRSM

R2 = 0.03P < 0.001

Figure S4: Spring onset anomalies are trending earlier (more negative values) over time. This effect varies between regions, but so does the number of samples. Grey symbols are all data and black symbols are annual averages. Symbols designating regions refer to National Park names: Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO), Harpers Ferry Historical Park (HAFE), Prince William Forest Park (PRWI), and Great Smoky Mountains Park (GRSM).





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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

D PRWI

R2 = 0.07P < 0.001

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Autu

mn

anom

aly

(day

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

−15

−10

−50

510

15 E GRSM

R2 = 0.003P = 0.15

Figure S5: Autumn offset anomalies are trending later (more positive values) or remaining constant over time. Symbols designating regions refer to National Park names: Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO), Harpers Ferry Historical Park (HAFE), Prince William Forest Park (PRWI), and Great Smoky Mountains Park (GRSM).





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Earlier spring causing reduced nitrogen availability in ... · We performed 100 Monte Carlo...

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Transcript of Earlier spring causing reduced nitrogen availability in ... · We performed 100 Monte Carlo...