Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm...
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![Page 1: Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697c0301a28abf838cdab42/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the
NCEP CFS CGCM
Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm
Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
October 27, 2009
The 34th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop,
Monterey, CA
![Page 2: Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697c0301a28abf838cdab42/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Description of the CFS Experiments• Datasets Used• Analysis of storm activity statistics• Focus on the Atlantic and Western North Pacific
basins– Statistics and performance evaluation
• Future plan
![Page 3: Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697c0301a28abf838cdab42/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CFS T382 Hurricane Season Experiments
• One of the FY07/08 CTB internal projects
• Model Components:– AGCM: 2007 operational NCEP GFS in T382/L64 resolution– LSM: Noah LSM– OGCM: GFDL MOM3
• All runs initialized with NCEP/DOE R2 and NCEP GODAS. – 00Z Initial Conditions from April 19-23– Runs through December 1st
• Tropical cyclone detection and tracking method based on Camargo and Zebiak (2002)– Vorticity max, pressure min, wind max, warm-core system
![Page 4: Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697c0301a28abf838cdab42/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Datasets
• CFS Hindcasts at T382 (~33km)– 5-Member Ensemble
• April 19th-23rd Initial Conditions
• Output every 6 hours
• 1981-2008, 28 years
• Appropriate ICs for CPC Operational Hurricane Season Outlook
• Observations from the HURDAT and JTWC Best Track Dataset– Tropical depressions and subtropical storms are not
included in storm counts.
![Page 5: Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697c0301a28abf838cdab42/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Western North Pacific North Indian
Atlantic Eastern North Pacific
Examples of Storm Tracks for 4 NH Basins
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Composite of 20 Atlantic Storms With SLP < 990hPa
Max winds, 27 m/s Min Pressure, 984 hPa
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Frequency of Minimum Pressure – ATL
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AtlanticBasin
Atlantic Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2008, T382
Obs Clim – 11.4CFS Clim – 10.9
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EasternPacific
Eastern Pacific Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2008, T382
Obs Clim – 16.3CFS Clim – 13.0
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WesternPacific
Western Pacific Tropical StormsMay-Nov, 1981-2008, T382
Obs Clim – 24.2CFS Clim – 18.1
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JJA Nino 3.4 SST Index
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
T382 Correlations
IC=0419 0.72
IC=0420 0.67
IC=0421 0.68
IC=0422 0.57
IC=0423 0.64
April Ensm 5 0.68
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T382 Correlations
IC=0419 0.63
IC=0420 0.64
IC=0421 0.73
IC=0422 0.67
IC=0423 0.67
April Ensm 5 0.71 Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
JJA Atlantic MDR SST Index
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T382 Correlations
IC=0419 0.43
IC=0420 0.54
IC=0421 0.66
IC=0422 0.68
IC=0423 0.69
April Ensm 5 0.70 Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
JJA Atlantic MDR Shear Index
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Cool Water Wake - SLP and SSTs Aug 29 - Sep 12, 1981
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Correlations Total
IC=0419 0.44
IC=0420 0.33
IC=0421 0.35
IC=0422 0.43
IC=0423 0.54
April Ensm 5 0.61
Anomalous Number of TC: Atlantic Basin
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
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Correlations Total
IC=0419 0.47
IC=0420 0.58
IC=0421 0.28
IC=0422 0.49
IC=0423 0.59
April Ensm 5 0.62
Atlantic Basin ACE Index
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
% o
f Nor
mal
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Correlations Total
IC=0419 0.40
IC=0420 0.47
IC=0421 0.01
IC=0422 0.53
IC=0423 0.14
April Ensm 5 0.46
Anomalous Number of TC: Western N. Pacific
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
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Correlations Total
IC=0419 0.43
IC=0420 0.51
IC=0421 0.33
IC=0422 0.47
IC=0423 0.34
April Ensm 5 0.50
WNP Basin ACE Index
Red = Statistically Significant at 0.95
% o
f N
orm
al
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CFS April 2009 ForecastAtlantic Basin
Storm Count and ACE Index
ATL – Below Average Year Predicted
CFS predicted 7.5 storms versus a 10.9 storm climatology.With an ACE Index of only 75% of Normal
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Courtesy of Unisys
8 Named Storms for 2009: 6 TSs and 2 Hurricanes28-Yr Climatology = 11.6 Storms
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CFS April 2009 ForecastWestern N. Pacific BasinStorm Count and ACE Index
WNP – Above Average Year Predicted
CFS predicted 21.5 storms versus a 18.1 storm climatology.With an ACE Index of 144% of Normal
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As of Oct 22, Courtesy of Unisys
24 Named Storms for 2009: 12 TSs and 8 Typhoons, 4 Super Typhoons28-Yr Climatology = 27.3 Storms
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Summary
• CFS in T382 resolution exhibits robust climatological seasonal cycle of tropical cyclones over three NH basins.
• Warming trend and intensification of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin captured in the CFS hindcasts.
• Fair level of skill in predicting interannual variability of seasonal storm activities for the Atlantic and West. N. Pacific basins.
• Provided input for the 2009 CPC Hurricane Season Outlook with real time prediction runs. Plans for an operational implementation in 2010.