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Transcript of NOAA/NCEP Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather Prediction Testbed: Transitioning Satellite...
NOAA/NCEP Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Prediction Testbed: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations
Rodney ViereckDirector, Space Weather Prediction Testbed
Presentation to the Satellite Science Meeting24 February, 2015
Outline:SWPC and SWPT
Models and ProductsIDEAGOLD
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Space Weather Prediction Center
24 February 2015
Operations – Space Weather Forecast Office
R & D – Space Weather Prediction TestbedTransitioning models into operations
Putting out daily forecast since 1965.
Specifications; Current conditions
Forecast; Conditions tomorrow
Watches; Conditions are favorable for storm
Warnings; Storm is imminent with high probability
Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding storm thresholds
Research-to-Operations• Applied Research• Model Development• Model Test/Evaluation• Model Transition• Operations Support
Operations-to-Research• Customer Requirements• Observation Requirements• Research Requirements
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Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth ModelingPartnerships with the Space Weather Research Community
24 February 2015
Sun:WSA Operational
Solar Wind: Enlil Operational
Magnetosphere:U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016
Ionosphere:IPE Operational in 2017
Thermosphere:WAM Operational in 2017
Aurora:OVATION Operational
Ground:E-Field Operational in 2016
Note: a vast majority of customers are concerned only about the near-Earth ionosphere
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POESMETOPCOSMIC II
GOESSDO
SOHOACE
DSCOVR L1
Primary Space Weather Satellites
•ACE (NASA)– Solar wind composition,
speed, and direction– Magnetic field strength and
direction
•SOHO (NASA/ESA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Corona (CMEs)
•STEREO (NASA)– CME Direction and Shape– Solar wind composition,
speed, and direction– Magnetic field strength and
direction
•GOES (NOAA)– Energetic Particles– Magnetic Field– Solar X-ray Flux– Solar X-Ray Images
•POES (NOAA)•METOP (EUMETSAT)
– High Energy Particles– Total Energy Deposition– Solar UV Flux
STEREO(Ahead)
STEREO(Behind)
•SDO (NASA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Magnetograms– Solar EUV spectra
•DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)
– Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
– Magnetic field strength and direction
•COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)
– Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles
– Ionospheric Scintillation
White: Currently OperatingRed: Future Missions
24 February 2015
524 February 2015
Current SWPC ProductsUS-TEC
CME Analysis Tool
Satellite Environment Model
HF Com Absorption
Aurora Forecast Model - 30 Minute Forecast
Relativistic Electron Forecast Model
Wing Kp Forecast
WSA
WSA-Enlil
Synoptic Drawings Solar X-ray Flux
624 February 2015
Models Under Development
Solar EUV Irradiance Model- Specification- Forecast
Far-side Analysis
Aurora Forecast Model- 3-Day Forecast
Global TEC Assimilative Model
ROTI GPS Product
Solar Flare Forecast
Whole Atmosphere Model
Electric Field Model
Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/Electrodynamics Model
Geospace Model
724 February 2015
Models Under Development
Solar EUV Irradiance Model- Specification- Forecast
Far-side Analysis
Aurora Forecast Model- 3-Day Forecast
Global TEC Assimilative Model
ROTI GPS Product
Solar Flare Forecast
Whole Atmosphere Model
Electric Field Model
Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/Electrodynamics Model
Geospace Model
IDEAIntegrated Dynamics in Earth’s
Atmosphere
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With and Without Lower Atmosphere:
24 February 2015
The temperature structure from a stand-alone thermosphere ionosphere plasmasphere model (e.g., CTIPe) is similar to the MSIS empirical model. The Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) drives variability from the chaotic lower atmosphere which introduces a whole spectrum of variability.
Typical iono-thermosphere model: • Driven by Solar EUV and
Geomagnetic Storms.• Global maps show little fine
structure
Ionosphere-thermosphere model coupled to the lower atmosphere: Global maps show structure relevant to• GPS accuracy and availability • HF Comm.
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Thermosphere
Mesosphere
GFS0 – 60 km
WAMNeutral Atmosphere
0 – 600 km
Ionosphere Model
IDEA (Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere)
Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)
Whole Atmosphere
ModelStratosphere
Troposphere
Specification and Multi-day forecasts for• GPS/GNSS Navigation• HF radio communication• Satellite communication
24 February 2015
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IDEA ionospheric forecast
24 February 2015
ObservedDaytime ExB
vertical drift at Jicamarca.A precursor to
ionospheric scintillation which
blocks GPS
Observed 14 Day Forecast with IDEATotal Electron
Content.Directly related to
GPS Error
Forecast with IDEA
2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS Forecast
January 13 Forecast
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January 15 Forecast
The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated
24 February 2015
Raising the top of the GFS model improves forecast lead time• WAM forecasts the Strat-Warm 2 days before GFS
12
IDEA Task List
• Complete the coupling of WAM to IPE• Improve WAM (and GFS)
– Improve stratospheric ozone and water vapor chemistry– Improve gravity wave parameterization to include non-orographic
gravity waves– Test higher resolution– Implement “Deep Atmosphere” gridding– Non-hydrostatic core– Expand data and data assimilation up to 100 km– Develop data and data assimilation for 100-200 km
24 February 2015
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WAM – IPE Data List• Stratosphere and Mesosphere
– Extend analysis of SSMIS to ~80-100 km altitude for temperature.– Extend use of AIRS, IASI, CRIS, AMSUA for temperature.– MLS for ozone and temperature to 85 km
• Thermosphere and Ionosphere– Ionospheric radio occultation e.g., COSMIC-II
• Line of site Total Electron Content, Scintillation Indices (
– Accelerometer data for neutral density e.g., GOCE, GRACE, SWARM– Ground-based dual frequency GPS receivers– Global network of Ionosondes/Dynasondes– Incoherent Scatter Radars (MH, Arecibo, Jicamarca, AMISR, etc.)
• Solar flux, GOES-EUV, NASA SDO• Solar Wind: ACE/DSCOVR• Missing Data: High spatial and temporal resolution global coverage of…
– Neutral Temperature– Neutral Densities– Electron Densities
24 February 2015
Capturing Global Phenomena
24 February 2015 14
Ionospheric Total Electron Content Observation
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC:Accumulation of a months worth of data taken between 20:00 and 22:00 local time
TIMED GUVI (similar to DMSP SSUSI):6 orbits of data
Capturing the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere is very difficult from LEO orbit.
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Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD)NASA Instrument of Opportunity
Imaging Spectrograph:Two independent, identical channelsWavelength range: 132 – 160 nm
Target Launch: October 2017Hosted Payload on geostationary
commercial satellite
Observations:•Hemispheric maps of…
• Neutral temperature• O/N2 ratio (composition)
• Electron density •Limb scans of temperatureFlorida Space Institute (FSI) University of Central Florida
PI: Richard Eastes Project Coordinator: Andrey Krywonos
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)University of Colorado
Deputy PI: William McClintockProject Manager: Mark Lankton
NOAA SWPCCollaborator: Mihail Codrescu
Instrument Summary
Mass 34 kg
Power 61 W
Size 42×42×70 cm
24 February 2015
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Data Assimilation Challenge• The Ionosphere-Thermosphere system is a strongly driven system
– Order of magnitude electron density changes… • Driven by order of magnitude changes in solar EUV and Geomagnetic activity. • Occur on timescales of minutes.
24 February 2015
• Data assimilation is challenging• Adjusting ionospheric conditions to
match observations does not work. The ionosphere returns to its original state in the next few time steps.
• Not sure which DA scheme is besta. Extended GSI/hybrid (3D EnVar)b. Extended 4D hybrid (4D EnVar)c. Separate Iono-Thermo ensemble
Kalman Filter
Assimilate Data
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Summary• The Space Weather Prediction Testbed provides new models and
products to the Forecast Center and to Customers
• Nearly every space weather model/product depends on real-time satellite
data
• IDEA: The coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere
Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model represents a significant advance in
space weather modeling
– Need to expand existing data and data assimilation in the 60-100 km region
– Need new data and data assimilation techniques in the 200 – 600 km region.
• The GOLD mission will provide new data critical for space weather
modeling
– Global (hemispheric) continuous real-time data
– Both ionosphere and neutral atmosphere data
24 February 2015