Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center · Dr. Vladimir Orlov During the Crisis,...
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Lectures 4 & 5 EVOLUTION OF THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center MGIMO University Dual Degree M.A. in Nonproliferation Studies Moscow, 2017
Transcript of Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center · Dr. Vladimir Orlov During the Crisis,...
Lectures 4 & 5
EVOLUTION OF THE NUCLEAR
NONPROLIFERATION
Dr. Vladimir OrlovFounder & Special Advisor
PIR Center
MGIMO University
Dual Degree M.A. in Nonproliferation Studies
Moscow, 2017
FIRST
NUCLEAR TEST
JULY 16, 1945
Conducted by the U.S. as part of the
Manhattan project.
Given the code name “Trinity”.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
HIROSHIMA AND
NAGASAKI BOMBING
AUGUST 6, 1945AUGUST 9, 1945
Brought the Second World War to an
end.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
J. Robert Oppenheimer
“If atomic bombs are to be added as new weapons to the arsenals of a warring world, or to the arsenals of
nations preparing for war, then the time will come when mankind will curse the
names of Los Alamos and of Hiroshima.”
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
END OF THE
WORLD WAR II
SEPTEMBER 2, 1945
Casualties: around 60 million
people.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FIRST SOVIET
NUCLEAR TEST
AUGUST 29, 1949
Operation was called “Operation First
Lightning”/”RDS-1” and took place at
Semipalatinsk, Kazakh SSR.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
KOREAN WAR
JUNE 25, 1950 –
JULY 27, 1953
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
UK’S FIRST
NUCLEAR TEST
OCTOBER 3, 1952
The operation was called “Hurricane” and took place in the lagoon between the Montebello Islands, Western Australia.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SUEZ CRISIS
OCTOBER 29, 1956 –
NOVEMBER 7, 1956
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
IAEA FOUNDED
OCTOBER, 1957
The Agency’s genesis was U.S. President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” address to the General Assembly of the United Nations on 8 December 1953.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
ANTARCTIC TREATY
SIGNED
DECEMBER 1, 1959
The Antarctic Treaty was signed in Washington on 1 December 1959 by the 12 countries whose scientists had been active in and around Antarctica during the International Geophysical Year of 1957-58.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
USSR HELPED CHINA
CREATE NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
1950s
USSR helped China develop nuclear
capability by sending its lead
scientists.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FRANCE’S FIRST
NUCLEAR TEST
FEBRUARY 13, 1960
The operation was called “Gerboise
Bleue” (“Blue Jerboa”) and took
place in the Algerian Sahara desert.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
BERLIN CRISIS
JUNE 4 –
NOVEMBER 9,
1961
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
IRISH RESOLUTION
PASSED
DECEMBER 4, 1961
Irish Resolution culminated in the adoption of the NPT and Ireland was the first country to sign the NPT in 1968.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
DECISION TO DEPLOY
SOVIET MISSILES IN
CUBA
MAY 24, 1962
The decision was made on May 24
by Soviet Presidium. It was taken
unanimously.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CUBAN MISSILE
CRISIS
OCTOBER 16 – 28, 1962
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
During the Crisis, leaders of the U.S. and the Soviet Union engaged in a tense, 13-day political and military standoff over the installation of nuclear-armed Soviet missiles on Cuba.
PARTIAL NUCLEAR
TEST BAN TREATY
SIGNED
AUGUST 5, 1963
The Test Ban Treaty of 1963 prohibits nuclear weapons tests "or any other nuclear explosion" in the atmosphere, in outer space, and under water.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CHINA’S FIRST
NUCLEAR TEST
OCTOBER 16, 1964
Operation was called “596”.
Originally named by the U.S.
intelligence agencies “Chic-1”.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NONPROLIFERATION
DISCUSSIONS
1966
The US and the Soviet Union started
bilateral discussion of
nonproliferation related issues.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
UNSC RESOLUTION
225 ADOPTED
OCTOBER 14, 1966
Positive security assurances, i.e.,
protection against the use or threat
of use of nuclear weapons.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NEGOTIATIONS ON THE
NONPROLIFERATION
TREATY
1966 - 1968
• Lyndon Johnson’s initiatives
• ‘Walk in the woods’
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
GENEVA COMMITTEE
WAS ASSIGNED TO
ELABORATE DRAFT NPT
1967
In May 1968 Geneva Committee presented the draft of the Treaty to the UNGA.June 12, 1968 the draft was approved by the UNGA.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
OUTER SPACE
TREATY SIGNED
JANUARY 27, 1967
Treaty sought to prevent "a new form of colonial competition" and the possible damage that self-seeking exploitation might cause.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
TLATELOLCO TREATY
SIGNED
FEBRUARY 14, 1967
The Treaty envisaged creation of a
nuclear-weapon-free zone in Latin
America and the Caribbean.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SOVIET TROOPS
ENTERED
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
AUGUST 20,
1968
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
ISRAEL ACQUIRED
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
1960s
Israel did not test its nuclear weapons.
The exact number of nuclear warheads
is unknown.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SEABED ARMS
CONTROL TREATY
SIGNED
FEBRUARY 11, 1971
The Treaty sought to prevent the introduction
of international conflict and nuclear weapons
on the ocean floor beyond 12-mile costal
zone.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
INDIA’S FIRST
NUCLEAR TEST
MAY 18, 1974
The operation was called “Smiling
Buddha”.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS
GROUP FIRST MET IN
LONDON
NOVEMBER, 1975
It is a group of nuclear supplier countries that seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of two sets of Guidelines for nuclear exports.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FIRST NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
MAY 5 – 30, 1975
The conference adopted a Final Declaration by consensus which set the precedent for future Review Conferences to produce documents that detail initiatives to further the application of the Treaty.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
HELSINKI FINAL
ACT
JULY 30 –
AUGUST 1, 1975
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
DEPLOYMENT OF US
MISSILES IN EUROPE
NATO decided to deploy 572 new nuclear missiles in Western Europe: 108 Pershing II Missiles and 464 Ground Launched Cruise Missiles.
1979
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SOVIET TROOPS
ENTERED
AFGHANISTAN
DECEMBER 25,
1979
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NUCLEAR WEAPON
PROGRAMS OF
STATES OUTSIDE NPT
1970s
• Argentina• Brazil• Pakistan• South Africa
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SOUTH AFRICA
ACQUIRED NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
1970s
“Six and a half” bombs were created
during South African nuclear
program.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SOVIET-US
COOPERATION
1970s
• Coordination on Argentinian nuclear. weapon program.
• South Africa’s nuclear testing prevented• SALT I, SALT II Treaties concluded.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SECOND NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
AUGUST 11 –SEPTEMBER 7, 1980
The Second NPT Review Conference.
The Conference was unable to agree
on a Final Declaration.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
THE OSIRAK
BOMBING
JUNE 7, 1981
This attack carried out by Israel is called Operation Opera or Operation Babylon. The operation came after Iran's unsuccessful Operation Scorch Sword.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
ESCALATION OF THE
COLD WAR
1983
South Korean Boeing shot down by
the USSR in the Far East.
Risk of nuclear accidents increased.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
THIRD NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
AUGUST 27 –
SEPTEMBER 21, 1985
The Final Declaration was strongly supportive of the Treaty, although it was critical of its implementation in some areas, particularly those relating to the cessation of the nuclear-arms race and nuclear disarmament.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
TREATY OF RAROTONGA
SIGNED
SEPTEMBER 6, 1985
The Treaty of Rarotonga is the common name for the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, which formalized a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the South Pacific.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
DPRK JOINED
THE NPT
DECEMBER 12, 1985
The Soviet Union was the one to
apply pressure on the DPRK for it to
join the NPT.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
REYKJAVIK
SUMMIT
OCTOBER 11 - 12, 1986
Reykjavik has become a symbol of sorts -an example that nuclear disarmament is within reach as long as political leaders have courage to make such a decision.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
INF TREATY
SIGNED
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces Treaty was signed in
Washington.
DECEMBER 8, 1988
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CLANDESTINE IRAQI
NUCLEAR WEAPON
PROGRAM
Iraq had a peaceful nuclear program based on research reactors provided by the USSR in the 1960s and France in the 1970s, and ran a clandestine program since early 1980s.
1980s
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SOUTH AFRICA
TERMINATED NW
PROGRAM
1989
Since abandoning its nuclear weapons program, South Africa has emerged as a champion of both global nuclear nonproliferation and equal access to peaceful nuclear energy.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FORTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
AUGUST 20 –SEPTEMBER 7, 1990
The Conference was unable to
adopt a Final Declaration.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
REMOVAL FROM
SOVIET REPUBLICS
1991 - 1996
Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
became non-nuclear-weapon-states.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
AUGUST 2, 1990 –
FEBRUARY 28, 1991
THE GULF WAR
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
RUSSIAN-IRANIAN
AGREEMENT
1992
Russian Federation and IR of Iran agreed on construction of Bushernuclear power plant. The contract for building the NPP was signed in 1995.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FRANCE JOINED THE
NPT
1992
CHINA JOINED THE
NPT
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
AGREED FRAMEWORK
BETWEEN US AND DPRK
OCTOBER 21,1994
Graphite-moderated nuclear
reactors were to be replaced with
light water reactors.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FIFTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
APRIL 17 – MAY 12, 1995
The NPT was indefinitely extended. ‘Principles and objectives on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament’, and a ‘Resolution on the Middle East’ was adopted without a vote.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
BANGKOK TREATY
SIGNED
DECEMBER 15, 1995
Nuclear weapons moratorium between Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
TREATY OF
PELINDABA SIGNED
APRIL 11, 1996
The African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone
(ANWFZ) or Treaty of Pelindaba covers
the entire African continent.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FIRST SUMMIT ON
NUCLEAR SECURITY
APRIL 19 – 20, 1996
Summit was held in Moscow.
Program on Countering Illicit Trafficking
in Nuclear Materials adopted.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
INDIA & PAKISTAN’S
NUCLEAR TESTS
1998
• Operation Shakti (India)
• Chagai I, Chagai II (Pakistan)
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SIXTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
APRIL 24 – MAY 19, 2000
Conference adopted the Final Declaration,which reviewed the operation of the Treatyand recommended a number of practicalsteps, including 13 steps of nucleardisarmament, to be achieved in the future.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
THE SEPTEMBER
11 ATTACKS
SEPTEMBER 11,
2001
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
US DECLARED AXIS
OF EVIL
JANUARY 29, 2002
• Iran
• Iraq
• North Korea
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
US WITHDREW FROM
THE ABM TREATY
JUNE, 2002
“As the events of September 11 made clear, we no longer live in the Cold War world for which the ABM Treaty was designed.”
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
LEADERS OF G8 MET
AT KANANASKIS
JUNE 26 – 27, 2002
Leaders agreed on the document on
Global Partnership Against Proliferation
of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CUBA RATIFIED
TLATELOLCO TREATY
OCTOBER 23, 2002
Signature and ratification by all 33
nations of Latin America and the
Caribbean is completed.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
US INVASION IN IRAQ
MARCH 20 –MAY 1, 2003
The US invaded Iraq under the
pretext of fighting WMD proliferation.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
UNSC RESOLUTIONS
ON DPRK
• 1993 (reconsider withdrawal)
• 2006 (nuclear test)• 2009 (nuclear test,
Res. 1540)• 2013 (satellite launch)• 2016 (imposed
sanctions)
• 2006• 2009• 2013• 2016 (2)
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
DPRK ANNOUNCED
ITS WITHDRAWAL
FROM THE NPT
JANUARY 10, 2003
“Even though we are withdrawing
from the Treaty, we do not seek to
produce nuclear weapons.”
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
IRANIAN NUCLEAR
FACILITIES REVEALED
2003
• Natanz
• Arak
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
LIBYAN IMITATION OF
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROGRAM REVEALED
2003
In 2003, Muammar Qadhafi renounced all of his regime's WMD programs, after more than three decades of extensive efforts to develop WMDs and their delivery systems.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
PROLIFERATION
SECURITY INITIATIVE
CREATED
MAY, 2003
Initiative to stop trafficking of weapons of mass destruction launched by George W. Bush. 105 countries have endorsed the PSI.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
US-INDIA 123
AGREEMENT
JULY 18, 2005
This agreement allowed for fuel for
India's civilian nuclear reactors, and
the reprocessing of spent fuel.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
SEVENTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
MAY 2 – 27, 2005
The Seventh NPT Review Conference
was held in New York. The Conference
failed to adopt a Final Declaration.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CENTRAL ASIAN NWFZ
TREATY SIGNED
SEPTEMBER 8, 2005
This Treaty is a legally binding commitment by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan not to manufacture, acquire, test, or possess nuclear weapons.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
UNSC RESOLUTIONS
ON IRANResolution 1696 –Council demanded that Iran halts its uranium enrichment program.Resolution 1737 –Imposed sanctions against Iran. It banned the supply of nuclear-related technology and materials.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
2006
NEW START TREATY
APRIL 8, 2010
Russia and the U.S. signed the Treatyon Measures for the Further Reductionand Limitation of Strategic OffensiveArms.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
EIGHTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
MAY 3 – 28, 2010
The Eighth Review Conference of theStates Parties to the NPT held in NewYork.64-point Action Plan.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
FAILURE TO CONVENE
CONFERENCE ON THE
ZONE FREE OF WMD
DECEMBER, 2012
On November 23, the United Statesissued a statement postponing theDecember 2012 conference on WMDfree zone in the Middle East.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
CRISIS OVER
UKRAINE
STARTED
2014
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
JOINT COMPREHENSIVE
PLAN OF ACTION
REACHED
JULY 14, 2015
JCPOA was reached in Vienna
between Iran, the P5+1 and the
European Union.
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
NINTH NPT REVIEW
CONFERENCE
APRIL 27 – MAY 22, 2015
• The lack of new action plan till 2020
• The issue on convening the Conference on
WMD-free zone in the ME remained unsettled
• Disagreement on disarmament issues may lead
to attempts to sign document prohibiting NW
Dr. Vladimir Orlov
![Dr. Pjotr GARAJAJEV [ Peter Gariaev ] & Vladimir POPONIN ...](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/62163959f56344477c5f045f/dr-pjotr-garajajev-peter-gariaev-amp-vladimir-poponin-.jpg)
