Doing BusinessDoing Business After a Major Bay After a Major Bay Area Earthquake Area Earthquake

JEANNE PERKINSABAG Earthquake Program

Manager

What Are Natural What Are Natural HAZARDS? HAZARDS?

Earthquake-Related Hazards Ground

Shaking Fault Rupture Liquefaction Landslides Tsunamis

Weather-Related Hazards

Flooding Landslides Wildfires Drought

What Are What Are the HAZARDS the HAZARDS

in MY Area? in MY Area?

Transportation Transportation ImpactsImpacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES 142 road closures in Loma Prieta 140 road closures in Northridge

18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES 17 Bigger than these earthquakes 0 Bigger than New Orleans

What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault --

1,330 total closures Problems along I-280

and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co.

San Francisco a mess San Mateo and Marin

county coasts isolated Problems near Bay at

OAK, SFO and SJC

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault --

1,650 total closures Most toll bridges not

usable Some problems in the

Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties

Entire East Bay isolated

Recovery Timeline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

170

183

196

209

Number of Days After the Earthquakes

Nu

mb

er

of

Str

eet

an

d F

reew

ay C

losu

res

Loma Prieta

Northridge

What Does This Mean? There were only 142 road closures

in Loma Prieta. There were only 140 road closures

in Northridge. Our model for predicting the

potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.

Utility System Utility System ImpactsImpacts

Liquefaction - Results

Selected Damage to FoundationsRoads & SidewalksSand boilsPipeline Breaks

What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake

Water - 4-5 times more breaks

Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks

Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

Airport System Airport System ImpactsImpacts

What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault SFO probably

CLOSED

OAK probably CLOSED

SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault SFO probably

disruption

OAK probably CLOSED

SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

HousingHousing ImpactsImpacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due

to the Loma Prieta Earthquake 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due

to the Northridge Earthquake

18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta 8 Bigger than Northridge 0 Bigger than New Orleans

What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault

159,900 uninhabitable housing units

(300,000 – Katrina)

359,000 people displaced

105,700 peak shelter population

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault 155,700

uninhabitable housing units

300,000 - Katrina

356,600 people displaced

110,300 peak shelter population

Single Family Homes

9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

Mobile Homes

7% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

Multifamily Wood-Frame

66% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

Unreinforced Masonry

8% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

Other Non-Wood Multi-Family

10% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

Multifamily vs. Single-Family

84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

The Nightmare Goes On and On...

Peak Shelter Population

020000400006000080000

100000120000

Northridge

The HaywardEarthquake"Nightmare"

The Nightmare Goes On and On...

Who Has the Nightmare?

What is the role of What is the role of business after a business after a

disaster?disaster?

Where is ABAG’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan information on the internet?

http://quake.abag.ca.gov

As well as “special” info at http://quake.abag.ca.gov/business

Save the Date – Save the Date – Thursday, April 20 – (Day Thursday, April 20 – (Day

3 of the Mega-3 of the Mega-Conference) Conference)