Future Bay Area Future Bay Area Earthquakes –Earthquakes –

Water & Sewer IssuesWater & Sewer Issues

JEANNE PERKINS

ABAG Earthquake and Hazards

Program Consultant

Initial Mitigation Priority = Key Facilities

BEST UNDERSTOOD Water storage Aqueducts Water treatment Wastewater

treatment Pumps and

pumping plants Tunnels

Less Focus on Pipeline ImpactsIN Loma Prieta 507 water

pipeline leaks or breaks in Loma Prieta

UNKNOWN number of sewer line breaks

487 natural gas pipeline leaks

EBMUD installs pipe elbow to avoid landslide area

Pipelines and “Normal”Earthquake Hazard Analysis Ground

Shaking Fault Rupture Liquefaction Landslides Tsunamis

Shaking Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

Liquefaction - Damage

Selected Damage to FoundationsRoads & SidewalksSand boilsPipeline Breaks

What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas in Similar Shaking Intensities - Loma Prieta Quake

Water - 4-5 times more breaks

Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks

Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault

507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta

BUT IN A HAYWARD QUAKE: 5,500 leaks/ ruptures due to

shaking PLUS 100 or more due to

landslides PLUS 500 due to faulting PLUS 1,000-2,000 ? due to

liquefaction

What Happens to Water Lines- M 6.7 Southern Hayward Fault

507 documented water pipeline leaks/ruptures in Loma Prieta

SIMILAR TO 1868 HAYWARD QUAKE:

4,100 leaks/ ruptures due to shaking

PLUS 50 or more due to landslides

PLUS 350 due to faulting PLUS 600-2,000 ? due to

liquefaction

Transportation Transportation ImpactsImpacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

142 road closures in Loma Prieta 140 road closures in Northridge

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault --

1,650 total closures Most toll bridges not

usable for days->months Some problems in the

Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties

Entire East Bay isolated

Recovery Timeline

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 14

27

40

53

66

79

92

105

118

131

144

157

170

183

196

209

Number of Days After the Earthquakes

Nu

mb

er

of

Str

eet

an

d F

reew

ay C

losu

res

Loma Prieta

Northridge

What Does This Mean? There were only 142 road closures

in Loma Prieta. There were only 140 road closures

in Northridge. Our model for predicting the

potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe or Katrina, not either of these California quakes.

The Fault Mess Approximately 520 road closures

due to faulting. These same roads will have water

pipeline breaks. Isolation of the East Bay!

Current Toll Bridge SRP Status

San Mateo- Hayward Bridge Seismic Retrofit Complete 2000

Eastbound Carquinez Bridge Seismic Retrofit Complete 2002

Benicia- Martinez Bridge Seismic Retrofit Complete 2002

San Francisco- Oakland Bay Bridge West Span Seismic Retrofit

Complete 2004

Richmond- San Rafael Bridge Seismic Retrofit Complete 2005

San Francisco- Oakland Bay Bridge West Approach Replacement

In Progress 2009

San Francisco- Oakland Bay Bridge East Span Replacement

In Progress 2013

Seismic Retrofit ProjectsCompletion

DateStatus

HousingHousing ImpactsImpacts

2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake

48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake

What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault 155,700

uninhabitable housing units

300,000 - Katrina

356,600 people displaced

110,300 peak shelter population

Multifamily vs. Single-Family

84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

The Nightmare Goes On and On...

Peak Shelter Population

020000400006000080000

100000120000

Northridge

The HaywardEarthquake"Nightmare"

The Nightmare Goes On and On...

Who Has the Nightmare?

Bay Area Bay Area Multi-Jurisdictional Multi-Jurisdictional

Local Hazard Local Hazard Mitigation PlanMitigation Plan

The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) focuses on – Mitigation before, rather than after,

disasters Ties future mitigation funding to

cities, counties, and special districts having “Local Hazard Mitigation Plans” completed

State also covers all local match

MITIGATION MITIGATION Strategies in Strategies in

“Umbrella” Plan “Umbrella” Plan Related to Water Related to Water

Two ways to deal with hazards Increase emergency response

capability – police/fire/OES role Increase actions taken to

reduce or eliminate the impacts of future incidents – planning (CEQA and General Plans), public works, building, risk management role – These MITIGATION actions are the focus of these strategies

MITIGATION Decisions –

Costs of ACTION vs. INACTION

COSTS vs. LOSS REDUCTIONDeaths and injuryDamage – property dollar

lossDisruption – downtime due

to inoperable functioning

GOAL –To develop a disaster-resistant region by Reducing the potential loss of life,

property damage, and environmental degradation from natural disasters, while

Speeding economic recovery from those

disasters.

1. Infrastructure –INFR-a-3-Retrofit or replace critical lifeline facilities … that are shown to be vulnerable to damage in natural disasters.

INFR-a-6-Plan for speeding the repair and functional restoration of lifeline systems through stockpiling of shoringmaterials, temporary pumps, surface pipelines, portable hydrants, and other supplies…

1. Infrastructure (cont.)–INFR-b-3-Include “areas subject to high ground shaking, earthquake-induced ground failure, and surface fault rupture” in the list of criteria used for determining a replacement schedule for pipelines …

INFR-b-4-Replace or retrofit water-retention structures that aredetermined to be structurally deficient.

1. Infrastructure (cont.)–INFR-d-12- Provide a mechanism to expedite the repair or replacement of levees that are vulnerable to collapsefrom earthquake-induced shaking or liquefaction, rodents, and other concerns, particularly thoseprotecting critical infrastructure.

INFR-g-3-Provide materials to the public related to coping with reductions in water supply or contamination of thatsupply.

Where is ABAG’s information on the internet?

http://quake.abag.ca.gov/