DEVELOPMENT ANDCLIMATE CHANGE

World Development Report 2010

Marianne Fay October 2009

New finance, new instruments and new pressures are helping build momentum

CLIMATE CHANGE IS A SERIOUS AND IMMEDIATE THREAT BUT A CLIMATE-SMART WORLD IS POSSIBLE IF WE…

Act now Act together Act differently

New finance, instruments and pressures are helping build momentum

Source: Smith and others, 2009

SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS: SERIOUS AND IMMEDIATE2001 assessment2007 assessment

Risks to unique and threatened

systems

Risk of extreme weather events

Distribution of impacts

Aggregate impacts

Risks oflarge scale

discontinuities

5

4

2

0

1

3

Increase in global temperature since pre-industrial era (°C)

2°C over preindustrial

Today = + 0.8°C

NO COUNTRY IS IMMUNE – ECA SIGNIFICANTLY THREATENED

By 2030, ECA will be much warmer…

+1.6 to+2.6 by mid century

Fewer frost days (- 14 to 30 days)

More heatwaves: Poland and Hungary to experience same number hot days as Sicily today

Implications Melting glaciers; less snow

Melting permafrost, arctic ice

Sealevel rise (except Caspian)

a. Change in Mean Annual Temperature (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)

d. Change in Number of Frost Days (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)

e. Change in Heat Wave Duration Index (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)

And will suffer more droughts and floods…

Precipitation will increase everywhere but in Southern ECA and Central Asia

But water availability will decrease everywhere but Russia

Increased precipitation intensity almost everywhere

a. Change in Mean Annual Rainfall (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 20 GCMs)

b. Change in Runoff (2041-2060; 1900-1970; A1B; 8 GCMs)

d. Change in Daily Maximum 5 Day Rainfall (2030-2049; 1980-1999; A1B; 8 GCMs)

Hatching indicates where at least 2/3 of the models agree with the sign of the change.

NO COUNTRY IS IMMUNE – ECA SIGNIFICANTLY THREATENED

A CLIMATE-SMART WORLD IS POSSIBLE…

Annual public subsidies

Private funding for energy R&D

BUT TO MEET THE CHALLENGE, WE MUST

• ACT NOW

• ACT TOGETHER

• ACT DIFFERENTLY

ACT NOW:TODAY’S ACTIONS DETERMINE TOMORROW’S OPTIONS

Inertia in the climate system

Inertia in thebuilt environment

Inertia in institutions andindividuals’ behavior

feasibility

costs

political momentum

ACT NOW:

OR THE 2˚C TRAJECTORY IS OUT OF REACHProjected annual total global emissions (billion tons of CO2 equivalent)

ACT NOW:

MUCH IS AT RISK ALREADY AND WE HAVE TO LEARN TO ADAPT

Urban climate by 2100 (if we don’t act)

ACT TOGETHER:RICHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO TAKE THE LEAD BUT ALL HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40

Marginal mitigation cost ($/tCO2e)

Mitigation potential

(GtCO2e/year)

Marginal cost, all countries

Mitigation measure in a developing country Mitigation measure in a high-income country

Negative costs:Long-term savings outweigh initial costs

Advanced technologies:carbon capture and storage

Efficiency in buildings

Efficiency in motors, cars, and electricity co-eneration

Land-use and land-use change, mostly in developing countries

Small hydro and nuclear in developing countries Renewable energy:

Wind and solar

Marginal cost, all countries

Gt of foregone mitigation

Marginal cost, only high-income countries

Additional cost of achieving 10 Gt of mitigation

McKinsey 2009

ACT DIFFERENTLY:

RADICALLY TRANSFORM ENERGY SYSTEMS

Energy efficiency

0

600

800

1,000

1,200

200

400

1,400

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Global primary energy mix (exajoules)

Year

ACT DIFFERENTLY:

TO MANAGE A CHANGING WORLD

To take advantage of the opportunities that could arise Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine to “feed the world”? Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but land and

water? Agriculture and forestry yield gap much higher than

potential increase from climate change Northern expansion…requires infrastructure

Make robust rather than optimal decisions

MAKING IT HAPPEN:

NEW RESOURCES

To reconcile equity and efficiency

Requires massive scaling-up From $9 bn to $170-$275 Bn in 2030 A financing challenge: $250-$550 bn in associated mitigation finance

It can be done: Requires all options available Financing = 3% global investments

To support communities and decisionmakers Low-tech and high-tech

MAKING IT HAPPEN:

NEW INSTRUMENTS

Increasing awareness and concern Individuals and organizations are responding Politics are changing

More is needed to turn awareness into action “ Soft” policy tools - communication and education;

social norms Create institutional mechanisms to deal with new

challenges

MAKING IT HAPPEN:

NEW PRESSURES

http://blogs.worldbank.org/ climatechange/

http://worldbank.org/wdr2010

http://www.worldbank.org/eca/ climatechange