climate change and sustainable development
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climate change and sustainable development Julian Morris Vice President for Research, The Reason Foundation
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climate change and sustainable development. Julian Morris Vice President for Research, The Reason Foundation. Overview. What is “sustainable development”? What are the likely impacts of climate change? How to address climate change in a way that is consistent with sustainable development: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of climate change and sustainable development
climate change and sustainable development
Julian MorrisVice President for Research, The Reason Foundation
Overview
What is “sustainable development”? What are the likely impacts of climate change? How to address climate change in a way that is
consistent with sustainable development:– Addressing today’s problems first– Promoting economic development
A question of morality
Sustainable Development is …
“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
Brundtland Commission, 1997
Likely Impacts of Climate Change
Hypothesised Impact Evidence?Increased precipitation YESIncreased incidence of storms, hurricanes
?
Increased rate of reduction in glaciers ?Increased rate of sea-level rise ?More hot days, fewer cold days YESIncreased disease NOChange in ranges of species YES
Is cutting carbon emissions a sensible way to address climate
change?
Source: Lomborg 2001
Assumes:
1. IPCC SAR Median warming scenario
2. Kyoto restrictions applied until 2100
Adapting to ChangeProblem Adaptive ResponsesMalaria, dengue, etc. Pesticides, air conditioningDiarrhoeal diseases Clean water, sanitationFlooding – increased precipitation
Flood barriers, houses on stilts, migration
Heat exhaustion – increase in hot days
Fans, air conditioning, building structures
Crop damage – aridity New crop varieties (GM)Change in ranges of species
Improved incentives for sustainable management
Overall, Wealthier is Healthierlife expectancy at birth and GNI/cap (PPP) - 2003
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GNI per cap PPP
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
Data: World Bank
Wealth and Access to Potable Water
Access to Potable Water, GNI -- 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GNI/cap (US$ PPP)
Acc
ess
to 'i
mpr
oved
' wat
er
Data: World Bank
Economic Growth
Economic Growth 1AD - 2005 AD
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
YEAR
GD
P/c
apita
(Con
stan
t US
$, P
PP
)
Data: Angus Maddison
Falling Proportion of Poor
Source: Martin Wolf
Technology, Trade and Health
Improvements in Nutrition 1960 - 2000
Daily Calorific Intake by Region 1960 - 2000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Period
Dai
ly c
alor
ies
per
capi
ta
EUROPE
U.S.
S. AMERICA
ASIA
AFRICA
WORLD
As GDP Rises, Deaths from Extreme Weather Events Fall
Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events and GDP per capita, 1920 - 2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-07
Deat
hs p
er m
illio
n
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
GDP
Per
Cap
ita, C
onst
ant U
S$ P
PP
Death Rates GDP/cap
Data: EM-DAT, World Bank
=> Rising Life Expectancy
life Expectancy at Birth 1960 - 2005
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Ave
rage
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
(yea
rs)
High income
Low income
Middle income
World
if we are really serious about reducing all these problems, our focus should not be on reducing climate change, or even, for the
most part, on addressing the problems directly.
instead, our focus should be on enabling economic development
But with carbon control … Resources will be diverted into lower-carbon
technologies – and away from other technologies and wealth enhancing activities.
Carbon control legitimises the imposition of the very barriers that currently hold people in poor countries back!
So, people in the future will be less wealthy, will continue to suffer diseases, drought and other problems that would likely otherwise be solved.
Indoor Air Pollution in India
In 2001, more than two thirds of the Indian population relied on “biomass” fuels.
Sources: Indian Council of Medical Research & Census of India 2001
Annual Deaths from IAP (2000)
Children Under 5 (Thousands)
Total (Thousands)
India 290 420
China 50 420
World 910 1,600
Source: WHO
Is it morally defensible to divert money, human effort and other
resources away from real problems that exist today and from
investments that might enable our descendants to adapt to a changing
world?
