Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation...

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruTsunami Group Meeting, 20 December, 2009

JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruThe 1st Japan ‐ Peru Workshop at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010

Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation Technologies

Tsunami Research Group G2

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JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruTsunami Group Meeting, 20 December, 2009

Banda Aceh Hambanthota Khao Lak

Let us imagine again the tsunami disasters.


Pangandaran CamanaLeone

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JST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable DevelopmentEnhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology in PeruKickoff Meeting, 10 June, 2009

Objectives and goals

T th t ti l t i di t d


• To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast

• To develop the practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru

• To implement the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government

• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies

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Tsunami group member• Dr. Shunichi Koshimura (Tohoku

Univ., Tsunami engineering, • Msc. Julio Kuroiwa (Leader,

CISMID)


, g g,Team Leader)

• Dr. Gaku Shoji (Univ. of Tsukuba, Structural and earthquake engineering)

• Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seimology and Tsunami modeling)

)

• Guillermo Hasembank(Contralminarte, DHN)

• Gilberto Tacilla (Tec., DHN)

• Mr. Cesar Jiménez (Tsunami simulation, DHN)

C l M Vill (DHN)and Tsunami modeling)

• Dr. Yuji Yagi (Univ. of Tsukuba, Seismology)

• Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa (TEPSCO, Tsunami modeling)

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• Carlos Marcos Villanneva (DHN)

• Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID)

by Prof. Carlos Alberto Zavala Tóledoat the kickoff tsunami meeting

CISMID, Dec 20, 2009


Research plan ‐ Scientific phase ‐• Assessing historical tsunami events and its impact in Peru

– Tsunami sources


Tsunami sources– Tsunami hazard (Tsunami generation, near‐shore propagation and coastal inundation)

– Damage (Casualties, structural damage)

• Indentifying potential tsunamis and the worst case scenarios– Tectonic settings and tsunami source scenarios– Potential tsunami exposure (Exposed population)– Potential impact

• Mapping tsunami hazard and its impact– Inundation modeling– Damage estimation (Casualties, structural damage)– Hazard maps, Cartography

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Research plan ‐ Implementation Phase ‐• Developing a fundamental procedure for mapping t i h d


tsunami hazard– Training program (Tsunami modeling and mapping)– Warning, guidance and public awareness

• Strategic planning to mitigate tsunami risks and damage– Tsunami disaster mitigation program for Peruvian governmentgovernment

– Tsunami countermeasures– Design for tsunami evacuation facilities– Tsunami evacuation strategies

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Past events in Peru


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NGDC Tsunami Databasehttp://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml


Damage at Camana


Inundation level

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2001 Tsunami ‐ Camana, Peru ‐Casualty House damage

Dead Missing Injury Major/Minor Collapsed

24 62 41 760 2915


24 62 41 760 2915

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Affected area


Modeling the 2001 Peruvian tsunamiTsunami source :


Kikuchi and Yamanaka (2001)

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Source process of 2007 Peru earthquake by inversion of tele‐seismic body waveSlip distribution (Map view) Focal mechanism, Source time fun.,

Sli di t ib ti f lt l


Slip distribution on fault plane

Yagi (2007)


Tsunami Waveform Inversion Result


2010 Chile earthquake

1212

Length: 50 kmWidth: 50 kmfor each subfault


Tsunami modeling technology• Tsunami Modeling techniques (Tsunami‐code to simulate tsunami generation off shore/near



simulate tsunami generation, off‐shore/near‐shore propagation and coastal inundation)

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Potential tsunami exposurePopulationGlobal/Regional Tsunami Model


Population (LandScan)

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Tsunami height (m)


Tsunami fragility curves

• Structural damage probabilities in terms of flow


depth, current velocity and hydrodynamic force

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Clarification of failure modes of a structural component by tsunamis

Shear cracking of


せん断ひび割れ

Shear cracking of brick masonry wall

Flexural failure of RC column

16Shear cracking of brick masonry wall

Tsunami wave

July 17, 2006 South Java


Things to discuss are open based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [1]

• Study area …


– One historical event for model verification/validation(Camana, Pisco)

– Two potential scenarios (Callao, Chimbote, Pisco, Ilo harbor ; important ports industrial commercial places and exposures)

• Data we need

– Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter grid form North Pisco, South Pisco should be requested, Camana is already prepared)

– Field survey results for model validation (Pisco, Camana)

– Building polygon for structural damage estimation

– Population data for fatality estimation 17


• Human resources… who is going to work on tsunami modeling? h d l

Things to discuss are open based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting [2]


Schedule?

• What we are going to do in 2010 is

– Japan side

• Tsunami propagation modeling to identify what the worst‐case scenario is.

• Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura Yanagisawa Shoji)Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura, Yanagisawa, Shoji)

• Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event)

– Peru side

• What has been done from Pisco and Camana.

• Tsunami issues in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN , Mr. Jiménez) 18


Engineered concrete block houseField survey

at Camana


Non‐engineered concrete block house

2.60m

in Dec 21‐22, 2009

Inundation depth

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La Punta


Field survey at Callao


in Dec 20, 2009

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Potential Tsunami Exposed‐Death

µ[ ]∑ ××=N

iHFrPopNPTE1

)()/1(


10°0

'0"S

0°0

'0"

µ=i 1

N : Number of Earthquake eventPop : Population per sell H : Maximum tsunami heightFr(x): Fragility function of human

damage

Koshimura et al.,(2009)

⎤⎡ 375H

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90°0'0"W 80°0'0"W 70°0'0"W

20°0

'0"S

Population

100

0 LandScan 2008

Here, the earthquake probability in Northern area (> 9S°) is assumed to be 100 %.

⎥⎦⎤

⎢⎣⎡ −

Φ=72.0

37.5)(

HxFr


The tsunami risk in the coast of Peru – Tentative version ‐

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Potential Exposed-Death

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Objectives and goals

T th t ti l t i di t d


• To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast

• To develop the practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru

• To implement the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government

• To contribute the Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies

23

Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation...

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