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Transcript of Denin Dialogue u Del 11-10 Totten Water in an Uncertain Climate Future
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Water in an Uncertain ClimateFuture
Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and GreenTechnologies, Conservation International
Denin Dialogue SeriesDelaware Environmental Institute
November 30, 2010
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2105005
2 to 3% Annual Averagegrowth Gross WorldProduct (GWP) in 21st
Century (~10 to 20x
todays GWP)
2105
$500 trillion GWP~$50,000 per cap# in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty
$1,000 trillion GWP~$100,000 per cap# in poverty?
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More absolute poor than any timein human history
[alongside more wealth than ever]
M
asspo
ver
ty
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C
lima
te
wierding
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm
Partsp
erMillionCO2
Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm
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O
cea
ns
Acidify
ing
55 million years since oceans as acidicbusiness-as-usual emissions growththreaten collapse of marine life food web
Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
40% decline in phytoplankton base of
the marine food web -- past 50 years
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Species
extinction
Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate
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Map source: Jelks, H. J., S. J.
Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S.
Contreras-Balderas, E. Daz-
Pardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J.
Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F.
McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P.
Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B.
Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E.
B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr.
2008. Conservation status of
imperiled North American
freshwater and diadromousfishes. Fisheries 33(8): 37240
Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes
Fish species 8times morethreatened
thanmammals orbirds in the
USA
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37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened
%
Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, andIUCN 2000 for map
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2 billion people lack safe water
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking
dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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Incident Human Water Security Threat
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river
biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
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Incident Biodiversity Threat
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
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Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity
Source: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
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Intensive farmingand grazingpractices and
deforestation inChina have led tomore frequent duststorms, like this
one in 2001 thatswept aerosolparticles into theGreat Lakes regionof the US, and even
left a sprinkling inthe Alps mountains
in Europe.
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Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked toagriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)
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2 C increase
4 C increase
Direction of change in water run-off by 2060
Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011
369, 99-116
drier areas dry further &
wetter areas become wetter
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Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060
Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2C and +4C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011
369, 99-116
Nile Ganges Murray Darling
Danube Mississippi Amazon
+2 C
+4 C
+2 Cincreasingto +4 C by
2100
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Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4C
William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.
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Interactions may result in societal impacts that aregreater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts
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Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: TheBenefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion
Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory
GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2and >850 ppm
Based on 6 Celsius averageglobal temperature rise due to
greater climate sensitivity
Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015and become negative CO2by 2050 toachieve
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Where the world needs to go:energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
>$/GDP/cap
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Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in counteringterrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
Martin Weitzman
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdfhttp://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf -
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Averting catastrophes byGreening the
Global Economy
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
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Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames
Natural system
Technical system
Social system
USA Water Chart 2004
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USA Water Chart 2004
45% US water use
75% US water consumption
A t di i f t f th
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A new water disinfector for the
developing worlds poor
Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1m3)
Low cost: 4 disinfects 1 ton of water
Reliable, Mature components
Can treat unpressurized water
Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
Low maintenance: 4x per year
No overdose risk
Fail-safe
DESIGN CRITERIA
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf
WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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WaterHealth International
The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of
pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and
Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per
person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation ofour systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses ofoperating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunitiesfor local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified waterto outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the userfees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
WaterHealth International
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdfhttp://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf -
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Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go toirrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigationcan waste as much as 80% of the water.
Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies andartificially low water prices, often unconnected to
the amount of water used.
Drip irrigation systems for water intensive cropssuch as cotton can mean water savings of up to80% compared to conventional flood irrigationsystems, but these techniques are out of reach
for most small farmers.
Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% ofthe worlds irrigated area.
Soft Water PathMore productive, Less cost, Less damage
Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the
Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/
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The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
Immense Water Waste
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003
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E W I i B fi
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Energy/Water Integration Benefitsduring Drought Periods
Source: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy,Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.
1200 100,000+
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1 4 5 38
552 541
784
1022
0
200
400
600
800
1000
(relative to wind power=1)
Water consumption per kWh
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Green PowerorMegadamus
negavitae?
Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
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Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
Tucuru dam, Brazil
St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience50: 76675
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with
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Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with
Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the InternationalHydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
DAMReservoir
Area(km2)
GeneratingCapacity
(MW)
km2/MWEmissions:Hydro
(MtCO2-eq/yr)
Emissions:CC Gas(MtCO2-eq/yr)
EmissionsRatio
Hydro/Gas
Tucuru 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4
Curu-Una
72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5
Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58
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The water requirements of energyderived from biomass are about 70 to400 times more than that of other energycarriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and
solar. More than 90% of the waterneeded is used in the production of thefeedstock.
What about Biofuels?
Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary
energy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..
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Food Fuel Species
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By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land required for agriculture.800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR
MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.
Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich
habitats under constant threat.
Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
Area to Power 100% of U S Onroad Vehicles?
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Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-w/storageturbine spacing
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Solar-w/storage
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007 htt ://www.stanford.edu/ rou /efmh/ acobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?
Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in
plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
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Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients 1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhereworldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatilityafflicting every energy and power source used in driving
economic activity
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SUN FUSION PHOTONS
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SunSlate Building-IntegratedPhotovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
MeasureBeijing Shanghai
PolishedStone
NPV ($)BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$18,5862.33
1
+$14,2372.14
1
Aluminum
NPV ($)BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$15,3731.89
2
+$11,0241.70
2
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for Architectural BIPV(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing andShanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China , July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
China Economics of Commercial BIPVBuilding-Integrated Photovoltaics
http://www.udel.edu/ceep/http://www.udel.edu/ceep/ -
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Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because itcaptures both energy savings and savings fromdisplacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPVhina Economics of Commercial BIPV
Municipal Solar Financing Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
http://www.nrel.gov/http://www.nrel.gov/ -
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Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998 200821GW
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MW
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008
40% annual growth rate
Doubling
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2069
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Megawatts
2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057
Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Megawatts
2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089
Equal to total world consumption in 2009
59TWby
2075
59
TWby
2119
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year
2109
2089
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Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plugin Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,
[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
mailto:[email protected]://solar.gwu.edu/http://solar.gwu.edu/mailto:[email protected] -
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Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Solar power beats thermal plants within their
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Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
p p
construction lead timeat zero carbon price
Federal Research & Development Funds
http://www.rmi.org/http://www.rmi.org/ -
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1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power
(1948 2009)
vs.
Solar Photovoltaics
(1975-2009)
$4.2
$85
Federal Research & Development Funds
GIS Mapping the Solar
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Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
GIS Mapping the SolarPotential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Solar smart poly-grids
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Solar smart poly grids
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
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Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map
algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank
expansion of solar panel locations.
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
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New York
California
USA minus CA & NYPer CapitalElectricityConsumption 165 GWCoalPowerPlants
Californians have
net savings of$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promotinglower cost efficiency over new power plants orhydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in Chinato share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
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Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California EnergyCommission, (916) 654-4930,[email protected] , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
mailto:[email protected]://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.htmlhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.htmlmailto:[email protected] -
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Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 20102020 fordeveloping countries and $4860 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
Breakdown by abatement type: 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)
6 Gt energy efficiency 4 Gt low carbon energy supply
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
Universal symbol for Efficiency
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eta
SHRINKINGfootprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thingabout low-
hanging fruit
is that it keepsgrowing back.
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Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
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How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2 50
33
25
end-use
efficiency
2 47Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced
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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
end-use
efficiency
32
23
1: 93 kg
CO2/$
2 pper dollar spent on electrical services
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Michael Totten
l
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THANK
YOU!
Conservation International
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Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Mississippi River Delta
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Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae SystemsYangtze River Pearl River
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Small Land footprint
Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
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Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
ATS
Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)
Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH
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CO2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter(Clostridium butylicum
C. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 +
Biobutanol
Ethanol
Acetone
Lactic Acid
Acetic Acid
Oil
ALGALBIOMASS
Solvent
Extraction
+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)
Less CO2 in atmosphere
Transesterification
Organic
FertilizerSource: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email:[email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
Biofuel Production from Algal
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Algaebutanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production(gallons per acre or ha per year)
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
+
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923
[3,770 gal/ha/yr][5,000 gal/ha/yr]
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]
[250 gal/ha/yr]
Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
Figures of Merit95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
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Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 3MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40% USA total GHG emissions Wind Farm Royalties Could Double
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The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70%of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4
to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural
communities, while also enabling one of
worlds largest restorations of native
prairie ecosystems
How?
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Wind Royalties Sustainable source of
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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Rural Farm and Ranch IncomeCrop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
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Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s