DemandWise for Cpg Mfrs. v3.2

DemandWise for CPG Manufacturers

Cutting Edge Solutions in Demand Forecasting

04/10/23 1DemandWise Partners, LLC; [email protected]; 407-592-0060

You and Your Retailers—which picture depicts your relationship?


DemandWise will help you fix it or leverage it.

DemandWise for CPGs—the Value Reduce Out-of-Stock events by up to 50%

Achieve permanent revenue lift Most of gross profit straight to your bottom line

Run profitable promotions – achieve the sales lift you want

Manage your Supply Chain with greater precision Reduce Inventory Overstocks Reduce Shipping and Delivery Costs

Keep the consumer happy

Get your vendors and your retailers working for you


How it Works for You and Your Outlets


DemandWise—Transform POS Data into Business Intelligence

Critical information Understand demand Understand your promotions Know the price elasticity of demand for your products

Market Leverage Get the shelf space you deserve in the locations you’ve earned Manage your retailers store-by-store Drive store promo management tactics and strategy

Supply Chain Precision Manage your inventory with greater precision and confidence Reduce logistics expenses and investment


04/10/23 DemandWise Partners, LLC; [email protected]; 407-592-0060 6

Supply rules &parameters

DemandWise “Smart Supply”

Dem

andW

ise

Sales per SKU/store/day

Promotion events

Out of stock events

SKU/store:Demand forecasting:

Suggested order quantity:

60 71 55 60 90 90 0 65 65 55

190 . . 240 . . . 190 . .

•Decrease out of stock•Decrease backorders•Decrease out of stock•Decrease backorders

DemandWise—How it Works for YouDemandWise acquires daily transactions from

retail outlets Upload comma separated value file or DemandWise queries retailer database for your

transactions onlyDemandWise develops forecasts and requested

analysis that same nightDemand delivers, next morning, forecasts and

analysis to CPG Mfr. and/or Retail Outlets


DemandWise Delivers Promotions Analysis

1. Aggregate performance of promotions1. Unit Sales2. Dollar Sales3. Value creation or destruction

2. Drill-down to desired level of granularity3. Daily forecasts of daily demand in

promotions for each SKU in each store4. Atomic, granular Price elasticity of Demand

analysis


CPG Mfr. – Aggregate Promotion Results

Results by Promotion:

PromoPromo Sales

Average Regular Sales

Units Improvement

% Improvement

Promo 2 113,099 144,648 (31,549) -21.81%Promo 4 159,653 144,648 15,005 10.37%Promo 5 144,623 144,648 (25) -0.02%Promo 6 158,417 144,648 13,769 9.52%

Grand Total 575,792 578,592 (2,800) -0.48%



Results by Store:

StorePromo Sales

Average Regular Sales

Units Improvement

% Improvement

1194 34,622 30,480 4,142 13.59%1359 36,864 36,592 272 0.74%1925 43,390 39,684 3,706 9.34%4610 31,926 26,836 5,090 18.97%5748 30,867 30,632 235 0.77%7371 32,154 31,068 1,086 3.50%

10143 41,384 54,052 (12,668) -23.44%41317 33,604 32,044 1,560 4.87%55471 35,535 37,472 (1,937) -5.17%55713 31,033 30,536 497 1.63%55900 27,012 30,408 (3,396) -11.17%55914 57,335 58,072 (737) -1.27%55931 45,607 47,448 (1,841) -3.88%55940 50,963 48,184 2,779 5.77%55964 43,496 45,084 (1,588) -3.52%

Grand Total 575,792 578,592 (2,800) -0.48%



Economic Impact of Promotions

Promo Unit LiftPromo Price Promo Sales$

Reg. Price Reg. Sales$ Dollar Outcome

2 (31,549) 2.75$ 311,022$ 3.75$ 542,430$ (231,408)$ 4 15,005 2.50$ 399,133$ 3.75$ 542,430$ (143,298)$ 5 (25) 2.50$ 361,558$ 3.75$ 542,430$ (180,873)$ 6 13,769 2.50$ 396,043$ 3.75$ 542,430$ (146,388)$

Total (2,800) $1,467,755 $2,169,720 ($701,965)


CPG Mfr. – Promo Analysis Conclusions

Nearly 1 million transactions were processed and analyzed automatically at the most granular level in minutes.

Unit sales decreased materially from non-promo average in Promo 2 implies frequent, endemic out-of-stock events.

Two stores—10143 and 5590—experienced the majority of out-of-stock events.

All promotions lost money - $701,965 over only 8 weeks.


DemandWise MethodWhat DemandWise “sees”:

DW Thursday Estimate – promo 6

DW

Saturday

Estimate

Usual least-

squares estimate

Obvious OOS


DemandWise Method

DemandWise clusters transactions by historical patterns Seasonality Impact of Promotions Frequency of Promotions Relationship of Promotions to Seasonality Holiday, Day-of-week effects

DemandWise applies Relational Bayesian Network technologies within clusters Compares patterns across stores and locations in same periods Compares patterns of categories across stores and locations


CPG Mfr. – Forecast Detail

Part of the forecast the category manager sees is below He determines delivery schedules from this information Delivery schedules can be automatic, rules-based

Chain Store Products Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat TotalShufersal-Big 1194 YoplaitDiet 120 172 215 326 400 270 42 1545Shufersal-Big 1194 YoplaitReg 190 151 243 319 478 366 54 1801Shufersal-Big 1925 YoplaitDiet 199 175 330 414 395 288 36 1837Shufersal-Big 1925 YoplaitReg 220 246 366 419 558 414 40 2263Shufersal-Big 4610 YoplaitDiet 146 159 239 383 447 330 18 1722Shufersal-Big 4610 YoplaitReg 152 178 235 327 381 374 47 1694Shufersal-Big 7371 YoplaitDiet 108 158 183 241 318 244 33 1285Shufersal-Big 7371 YoplaitReg 165 156 235 299 394 377 27 1653Shufersal-Big 55713 YoplaitDiet 124 169 199 276 325 260 29 1382Shufersal-Big 55713 YoplaitReg 140 141 200 297 409 264 24 1475Shufersal-Big 55940 YoplaitDiet 180 206 325 377 434 318 35 1875Shufersal-Big 55940 YoplaitReg 281 378 340 490 568 441 68 2566


For CPGs – Forecasts Yield Actionable Information

DemandWise forecasts are: Operational – daily, weekly, monthly, custom Tactical – monthly, quarterly, custom Strategic – semi-annual, annual

DemandWise models promotion scenarios Price (in-store display, circular) Coupons (store and manufacturer) Deals (buy one get one free)

DemandWise estimates demand elasticity of price Continuous Stepwise/price points


For CPGs–DemandWise Yields Actionable Information

Determine weekly delivery schedules Drive quarterly, seasonal purchases and logistics plans Drive promotions

Stocking plans Pricing tactics In-Store position Competitive timing Optimize seasonal effects (lift or no effect)

Drive planogram software models Granular space allocation to optimize OSA Granular analysis of in-store locations


DemandWise for CPGsUnderstand Demand—Satisfy Demand: Manage your business processes from the customer to the product and back to the customer

Using concrete information, DemandWise enables you to:

Minimize OOS events – achieve < 5% OOSPlan and Execute profitable promotions – turn

loss leaders into profit leadersOptimize investment in inventoryMinimize logistics costs

The right products The right places The right time All the time


862-215-4611 DemandWise.Com [email protected] 19

DemandWise background

Two books published in USA by T.Kolosova and S. Berestizhevsky compose theoretical, methodological and technological basis for DemandWise

DemandWise for CPGsUnderstand Demand—Satisfy DemandManage Your Processes Full Circle from

Demand through Fulfillment—Turn Data Into Intelligence


DemandWise

Contact us:

Charles Broming, President/CEODemandWise Partners, [email protected]@priceandbroming.com407.592.0060

04/10/23 DemandWise Partners, LLC; [email protected]; 407-592-0060 21

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

DemandWise for Cpg Mfrs. v3.2

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