DecisionmakingPortofLA1
description
Transcript of DecisionmakingPortofLA1
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Decision Making
A Skill We Can Improve
Jim Marteney
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Population of Turkey
Greater or Less Than
35,000,000
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Population of Turkey
78,785,548
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Mental Trap
Unconscious mental routine that leads us to make poor decisions
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Anchoring Trap
Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.
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Anchoring Trap
Mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives.
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Status Quo Trap
We instinctively stay with what seems familiar.
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Status Quo Trap
We look for decisions that involve the least change
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Status Quo Trap
More alternatives, stronger status quo
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Status Quo Trap
People want to avoid, “rocking the boat”
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Status Quo Trap
Sins of commission punished more than sins of omission
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Justify Past Actions Trap
more invested in the past, more difficult to change
Don’t cultivate a fear of failure
culture
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Framing Trap
The way a problem is worded or “framed” can profoundly influence the choices one
makes
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Framing TrapPeople are:
risk averse when a problem is posed in terms of gains
risk seeking when a problem is posed in terms of avoiding losses
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Framing TrapWhich would you choose?
A sure gain of $3,000
80% chance of winning $4,000 and a 20% chance of winning nothing
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Framing TrapWhich would you choose?
A sure loss of $3,000
80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of losing nothing
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Framing Trap
“Bird in the hand, worth two in the
bush.”
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Decision Making
How much is influenced by
actual thought?
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Two Types of Decisions
Voluntary Decision Making
Involuntary Decision Making
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The Critical Thinker
One who refuses to complacently accept conclusions, one who
analyzes and evaluates eviencd in order to distinguish
strong reasoning
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unlike the uncritical thinker who accepts or
rejects conclusions, often on the basis of
egocentric attachment or unassessed bias.
The Critical Thinker
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Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
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Amos Tversky
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Try Their Test
You are at a store in one end
of the mall about to
purchase a calculator for
$25
Would you go down to the other end of the mall to
purchase the same calculator
for $20
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Try Their Test
You are at a store in one end
of the mall about to
purchase a computer for
$2000
Would you go down to the other end of the mall to
purchase the same computer
for $1995
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We Don’t Notice Everything
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Lateral Thinking
Edward de Bono
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Lateral Thinking
Story of evil money lender, debtor and his
beautiful daughter
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Lateral Thinking
Engine
Fuel
Tuned
Intelligence
Knowledge
Thinking
Smart = the integration of all three
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Identify the Problem
“A problem well stated is a problem half solved.”
Charles Kettering
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Identify the Problem
“The only difference between a problem and a solution is that people understand the solution.”
Charles Kettering
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Identify the Problem
“If I had only one hour to save the
world I would spend fifty-five minutes
defining the problem and only
five minutes finding the solution.”
Albert Einstein
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Identify the Problem
Difference Between
Cause of a Problem
Effect of a Problem
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Identify the Problem
Fishbone Analysis
Dr. Kaoru Ishikawa
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Identify the Problem
Fishbone Analysis
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Making a Decision
Gut Feeling
Positive, Negative, Interesting
Cost/Benefit Analysis
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Gut Feeling
“It is a feeling that you know, but still have a hard time to explain it”
Malcolm Gladwell
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Gut Feeling
“It is a feeling that you know, but still have a hard time to explain it”
Malcolm Gladwell
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Positive/Negative/Interesting
A good way of weighing the pros, cons and implications of a decision.
Peter Ueberroth
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Positive/Negative/Interesting
Positive
Negative
Interesting
What’s good?
What’s bad?
What would you be curious about?
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“Should we charge for the
privilege of carrying the
Olympic Torch?”
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Positive/Negative/Interesting
All marriages are no longer “Till Death do you part.” Marriages now only last 5 years.
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
Everything has a Cost
Money
Time
Personnel
Confusion
Bad Feelings
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
Everything has a Cost
Does the Benefit outweigh that Cost?
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
Benefit
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
Benefit
Cost
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
Benefit
Cost
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
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Cost/Benefit Analysis
“Targets or goals which are easily achievable and which do not require a lot of effort.”
Select Low Hanging Fruit
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Is there a Problem?
How Significant is the Problem?
Structural or Attitudinal?
Is there a Solution?
Asking the Right Questions
Will the Solution Solve the Problem?
What are the negative effects?
Negative aspects outweigh the benefits?
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Failed to ask Key Question
Did Japanese households have conventional western ovens?
Asking the Key Questions
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Now, for the Case Studies
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Your Turn to Decide