Good Riddance!

Seems a lot of folks are happy to see 2016 grind to an end for a variety of reasons. We lost an inordinate number of talented folks in 2016. The economy continued to be less than beneficent to many of us. Last winter was not rainy enough (thanks El Nada) and this summer was too hot. An uptick in crime touched us or our friends. And of course there was that divisive election that capped a most fractious campaign, ending a decades-long march toward the White House for one candidate.

On the other hand, some of you are receiving this report for the first time because the election was good for you and now you get to be the one everybody lambasts when things go awry. Congratulations!

So if this your first visit, let me explain. The Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors®

(SRCAR) is the Voice of Real Estate in Southwest County. As Vice President of Government Affairs, part of my job is to keep you apprised of what’s happening in our local housing market. As such, I provide this report on a monthly basis summarizing recent sales, median prices, if there are fewer or more short sales and bank-owned homes, what our inventory looks like and what the trends are.

I’ll provide my own perspective based on over 25 years experience in the local housing market and I’ll give you information from other state and national sources so you’ll be equipped with enough information that will hopefully help you make decisions on future housing needs, infrastructure requirements, zoning changes, revenue expectations, etc. Once a year I’ll also provide an updated demographic analysis of your city with all its unique characteristics on residents ages, occupations, educations, buying habits and more. I’m also available to answer questions or prepare data on specific issues you might have that are not otherwise addressed.

Our Association works very closely with your City. Our nearly 5,000 members serve as Ambassadors for our cities. We are selling the lifestyles you provide, not just houses. It’s a symbiotic relationship as the better our cities do, the more residents and businesses are attracted to the area, the better we do. The more you succeed, the more we succeed and vice versa.

And one thing we need YOU to succeed at BIGLY this year is getting more homes built. As I’ll expand on later, our region and our state is woefully short of housing. It’s actually approaching crisis stage and that’s not hyperbole. Our inventory of available homes for the region in December was at its lowest point since November of 2014 and stands at less than 2 months supply in most cities! As we run out of houses to sell, prices are driven up. That isn’t bad if you already own, but it makes it more difficult for people relocating to the area, not to mention our teachers, public safety, clerical support, retail workers and our own children, to grab their piece of the American Dream.

While it’s even worse in other parts of the state, it’s bad enough here. By some estimates, a developer of new housing in Southwest County has over $43,000 invested in each rooftop before they even start construction. That’s entitlement fees, TUMF & DIF fees, CEQA compliance, AB52 compliance, school fees, water bonds – you know what I mean. That’s one reason why many of the homes that are being built are more expensive homes not destined for affordable or workforce housing needs – because there is more profit in building an upscale home given the built-in costs. Your land use decisions have

far-reaching consequences for our current and prospective residents.

As you have questions on this or any part of what SRCAR does, please don’t hesitate to ask.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Temecula 2,181 2,282 2,305 1,988 1,162 1,982 2,090 2,013 1,933 2,112 1,880 1,837 2,007 1,981

Murrieta 1,799 1,983 2,272 1,730 1,047 2,668 2,554 2,202 2,014 2,135 1,908 1,807 1,962 2,084

Menifee 1,158 1,587 1,885 1,409 951 1,721 2,310 1,979 1,696 1,860 1,801 1,692 1,833 1,988

Hemet 1,714 2,338 2,427 1,274 761 1,724 2,263 1,740 1,527 1,614 1,669 1,464 1,779 1,972

Lake Elsinore 962 1,038 1,287 999 494 1,405 1,805 1,405 1,270 1,165 1,072 1,022 1,091 1,184

Perris 946 1,088 1,519 1,288 576 1,728 2,493 1,720 1,525 1,220 1,031 935 906 894

San Jacinto 482 739 828 486 288 939 1,414 1,004 813 718 703 569 708 767

Wildomar 367 408 404 296 224 442 570 390 395 418 376 350 365 394

Canyon Lake 390 394 322 232 137 232 336 275 288 314 324 266 265 255

9,999 11,857 13,249 9,702 5,640 12,841 15,835 12,728 11,461 11,556 10,764 9,942 10,916 11,519

Total annual

sales

We actually finished the year with 11,519 single family home sales, slightly in excess of my earlier forecast of 11,400. That marks our second best year since 2010, missing the high water mark of 2012 by just 37 homes. Could we have beat that if we had more product to sell? In all likelihood. You can’t sell homes you don’t have at price points that don’t exist. It’s no coincidence that as our inventory continues to recede, our percentage of first-time homebuyers has shrunk to record lows.

Also impacting inventory is the fact that people are staying in their homes longer. The lack of that historical move-up market also serves to keep those lower price homes off the market and away from first-timers. Up from just 4-5 years average residency as recently as 2008-2009, today’s homeowners is staying put for 10 years! Many bought during that big push you see in 2008-2009 when prices were tanked. They probably re-fi’d once or twice and may be sitting on some equity and a 3% mortgage which, after what we’ve been through, is a perfectly happy place to be. Constantly bigger and better is no longer a goal.

How will 2017 be? My most trusted prognosticators see no bubble and no recession on the immediate horizon and I agree. Sales will continue to be constrained by availability of inventory. Interest rates will also impact sales, but they’re still very low by historical standards. What happens in DC and Sacramento will obviously be big factors. Rein in the EPA overreach, re-work Dodd-Frank and the CFPB – good for housing. Jigger the tax code and eliminate mortgage interest deduction? Meh, not so good. Who knows?

Southwest California Homes Annual Sales

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Temecula $355,04 $457,85 $517,99 $543,54 $524,48 $348,56 $302,32 $316,32 $308,96 $322,35 $403,28 $426,96 $449,65 $473,34

Canyon Lake $401,81 $516,79 $586,64 $660,93 $566,46 $336,04 $272,07 $297,05 $281,84 $334,25 $350,57 $415,80 $409,82 $426,09

Murrieta $342,63 $447,19 $504,61 $532,90 $495,64 $311,02 $263,72 $279,60 $273,75 $282,69 $352,14 $375,69 $389,70 $417,03

Wildomar $282,14 $367,42 $424,15 $460,36 $416,30 $279,75 $221,94 $222,29 $221,38 $228,80 $282,24 $314,19 $341,37 $367,42

Lake Elsinore $230,11 $323,68 $391,72 $433,99 $377,59 $230,45 $174,66 $187,34 $180,85 $187,69 $247,75 $281,74 $300,43 $321,97

Menifee $231,51 $291,23 $343,48 $363,13 $336,82 $227,08 $175,10 $183,26 $181,81 $183,41 $231,84 $267,12 $289,15 $307,34

Perris $176,55 $256,63 $334,16 $375,82 $336,70 $190,77 $143,82 $152,19 $146,93 $152,06 $194,60 $225,40 $256,0 $282,25

San Jacinto $178,26 $245,54 $302,11 $342,28 $310,22 $181,69 $135,02 $140,26 $129,73 $136,17 $170,60 $195,37 $211,57 $239,32

Hemet $190,30 $241,18 $302,32 $327,06 $284,72 $179,81 $122,68 $127,18 $122,95 $129,97 $167,73 $188,71 $203,03 $223,66

$265,377 $349,728 $411,914 $448,894 $405,442 $253,913 $201,264 $211,726 $205,361 $217,494 $266,755 $299,003 $316,751 $339,827

55% 40%

Earlier I called out price escalation as a factor limiting home sales to some market sectors, and it’s absolutely true. But our market has staged a comeback with a remarkable continuity and sustainability that some markets across the state have not. Continuity in that we have ascribed a fairly constant arc since 2011 and sustainable in that we have averaged just 7% annual appreciation even in the face of increased demand. There was concern in 2013 when average prices spiked 18% - 20% year-over-year. Given the 30%+ annual run-ups from 2001-2005, we worried that history was repeating itself all too soon. Proved to be unfounded and our pricing still remains well short of its 2006 peak.

Housing affordability remains a concern and locally our affordability has dropped from a high of around 67% just four years ago to just over 40% today. That’s still slightly better than the state as a whole at 31% and still makes us an affordable housing destination for our feeder areas like San Diego (26%) or Orange County (22%), though volatility in fuel prices has become more of a factor in those considerations as well.

What you will note when we compare quarterly appreciation in a later graph, is that in 2016 our median price remained relatively flat for much of the year, bumping just enough to fuel a 7% year-over-year increase. Will prices continue their march in 2017? The paucity of inventory tells us that is inevitable. In fact statistically, we should have been appreciating at a far faster rate than we have been. We still have a ways to go before reaching our previous peak, a milestone reached by several cities like San Francisco last year. We have every expectation our own progress should continue as well. As with sales, external factors will play a role.

Southwest California Homes Annual Average Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Temecula $423,000 $423,777 $432,833 $425,000

Murrieta $372,667 $391,667 $393,000 $387,967

Canyon Lake $354,483 $374,500 $430,000 $399,667

Wildomar $355,300 $361,850 $369,000 $364,951

Lake Elsinore $318,667 $324,783 $330,083 $330,908

Menifee $303,300 $313,300 $319,833 $322,000

Perris $263,333 $268,817 $271,667 $275,000

San Jacinto $230,200 $237,133 $245,250 $250,000

Hemet $210,667 $220,833 $226,833 $228,050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Murrieta 426 631 524 503

Temecula 406 542 564 469

Menifee 392 583 548 465

Hemet 413 554 531 474

Lake Elsinore 218 308 342 316

Perris 192 238 231 233

San Jacinto 177 211 202 177

Wildomar 60 120 116 98

Canyon Lake 50 56 86 63

Southwest California Homes 2016 Quarterly Median Price Trend

Southwest California Homes 2016 Quarterly Sales Trend

SW Market @ A Glance

Southwest

California Reporting

Period

Current

Period

Last

Period Year Ago

Change

from

Last

Period

Change

from

Year

Ago

Existing Home

Sales (SFR

Detached)

December

2016 916 974 904 7% 1%

Median Home Price

$344,500 $327,895 $313,550 5% 9%

Unsold Inventory

Index (SFR Units)

1,743 2,068 1,903 16% 8%

Unsold Inventory

Index (Months)

2.1 2.5 2.1 16% --%

Median Time on

Market (Days)

43 41 77 5% 44%

Source: CRMLS

2016 SFR Transaction Value*:

Temecula $937,688,521 Lake Elsinore $381,219,584

Murrieta $869,098,856 Wildomar $144,763,874

Menifee $611,005,836 Canyon Lake $108,653,205

Hemet $441,061,464 San Jacinto $183,559,207

Perris $252,332,394 Total $3,929,382,941

* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the year.

December Median Price:

2015 2016 %

Temecula $419,500 $430,000 3%

Murrieta $366,000 $380,000 4%

Menifee $306,000 $320,000 4%

Lake Elsinore $320,000 $345,450 7%

Wildomar $340,000 $335,500 1%

Canyon Lake $385,000 $382,500 1%

Hemet $203,500 $224,900 10%

San Jacinto $218,950 $245,000 11%

Perris $262,000 $280,000 6%

2015 SFR Transaction Value*:

Temecula $902,450,232 Lake Elsinore $327,759,872

Murrieta $764,608,053 Wildomar $124,601,612

Menifee $430,014,333 Canyon Lake $109,602,585

Hemet $361,201,334 San Jacinto $149,583,106

Perris $231,935,449 Total $3,416,716,634

* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the year.

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6

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Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore

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6

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-16

Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris Linear (Menifee)

Southwest California Homes I-215 Corridor

Single Family Home Sales

Southwest California Homes I-15 Corridor

Single Family Home Sales

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

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$500,000

Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore

$0

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$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris

Southwest California Homes I-215 Corridor

Median Price

(Yellow is trendline)

Southwest California Homes I-15 Corridor

Median Price

(Yellow is trendline)

0

50

100

150

200

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350

On Market (Supply)

Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate *

3

0

7

1

3

8

1

7

4

3

4

1

.

8

1

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9

%

2

9

1

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6

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%

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%

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%

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%

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8

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%

5

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1

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2

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1

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%

7

7

4

3

2

6

3

2

3

.

0

6

8

%

Murrieta Temecula Hemet Menifee Lake Elsininore Perris San Jacinto Canyon Lake Wildomar

* Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month

December Demand Chart

• Pending sales lower than closed sales portends lower January sales • Inventory less than 2 months means no reserve to feed a buyer push • Absorption rates of 169% - 211% means we’re selling 1.6, 1.7, 2.1 homes for every new property coming on the market. Cannibalizing inventory.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 9/13 1/14 5/15 9/14 1/15 5/15 9/15 1/16 5/16 9/16

Inventory Sales

Inventory v. Sales

December Market Activity

By Sales Type

Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale

Active

% of

MKT Sold

% of

MKT Active

% of

MKT Sold

% of

MKT Active

% of

MKT Sold

% of

MKT

Temecula 280 96% 141 92% 15 5% 4 3% 5 2% 5 3%

Murrieta 289 94% 162 93% 9 3% 5 3% 8 3% 5 3%

Wildomar 73 95% 26 100% 0 0% 0 0% 2 3% 0 0%

Lake Elsinore 171 93% 107 94% 2 1% 4 4% 9 5% 4 4%

Menifee 225 90% 149 95% 7 3% 3 2% 14 6% 3 2%

Canyon Lake 51 89% 18 90% 2 4% 0 0% 4 7% 2 10%

Hemet 299 94% 138 95% 6 2% 3 2% 11 3% 2 1%

San Jacinto 96 89% 50 93% 5 5% 1 2% 9 8% 2 4%

Perris 137 91% 68 93% 5 3% 2 3% 5 3% 0 0%

Regional

Average 1621 93% 859 94% 51 3% 22 2% 67 4% 23 3%

2015 Condominium Sales

Sales Average Price Revenue

Temecula 136 $258,817 $35,199,156

Murrieta 237 $235,550 $55,825,342

Wildomar

Lake

Elsinore 56 $178,956 $10,021,540

Menifee 62 $123,857 $7,679,157

Canyon

Lake 5 $258,700 $1,293,500

Hemet 47 $81,016 $3,807,749

San

Jacinto 14 $78,753 $1,102,538

Perris 7 $171,073 $1,197,508

Region Revenue $116,126,490

2016 Condominium Sales

Sales Average Price Revenue

Temecula 131 $289,466 $37,920,027

Murrieta 252 $262,252 $66,087,602

Wildomar 0

Lake

Elsinore 57 $196,683 $11,210,950

Menifee 45 $132,070 $5,943,164

Canyon

Lake 15 $217,093 $3,256,400

Hemet 59 $98,493 $5,811,095

San

Jacinto 8 $104,096 $832,764

Perris 6 $170,167 $1,021,000

Region Revenue $132,083,002

Temecula

49 X $1,000,000+ homes sold in 2016

Highest recorded price: $3,875,000

Murrieta

39 X $1,000,000+ homes sold in 2016

Highest recorded price: $3,000,000

I’ve mentioned the delta between average and median price in previous newsletters so I’m including some year-end graphs to illustrate that in our local markets.

Average price, which is what I use in some data, is the result of total sales revenue divided by the number of properties sold. Median price is the point at which half the homes sold for a higher price and half for less.

As you can see on the attached graphics, in markets with more higher price homes, the average price can vary significantly from the median as those upper end homes disproportionately impact the data. Areas with more affordable housing may actually find that the median price exceeds the average. In areas with fewer sales, like Canyon Lake, the sale of a single higher end property may significantly impact the average price equation.

Canyon Lake

3 X $1,000,000+ in 2016 Highest recorded price: $1,275,000

San Jacinto

2 X $1,000,000+ in 2016 Highest recorded price: $1,320,000

Lake Elsinore

1 X $1,000,000+ in 2016 Highest recorded price: $2,200,000

Menifee

1 X $1,000,000+ in 2016

Price : $2,915,000

Hemet

1 X $1,000,00+ in 2016

Price: $1,175,000

Perris

No $1,000,000+ in 2016

Wildomar

No $1,000,000+ in 2016

Median v. Average Price Charts

57 56 56 54 52 50 50 50

48 46 45 45 45

41

32 31 30 29

27 26 26 25 25 22

20 20 19 18 17 14 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Housing Affordability

What Happens When Mortgage Rates Increase?

$1,740 $1,853

$1,971 $2,091

$2,216 $2,344

$2,475 $2,609

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

$2,800

3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

MONTHLY MORTGAGE

Q3-2016 Median Price $515,940 (CA median)

20% Downpayment

Percentage of residents able to afford a median price home in their market based on median wage for that market.

63.5

53.2

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70 Q

1-0

5

Q3

-05

Q1

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Q3

-16

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. California

Homeownership Rate 2005 - 2016

29.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%

Share of First-Time Buyers remains

Below Long-Run Average

Investor Buyers?

Dropping but Still Have Demand in Lower-Priced Segments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30% Investment/Rental Property

Vacation/Second Home

% to Total Sales

Demand for Investment Properties remained at the Lowest level since 2009

International Buyers Dropping

8%

6%

5% 6% 6%

8%

6%

4%

3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in 9 years

“Missing” 65,000 New Units Annually

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000 Single Family

Multi-Family

Household Growth:

165,000/yr.

2015: 95,822 (42,959 sf, 52,863 mf) 2016p: 98,300 total units

Most Underbuilt Counties in California

381,300

174,833 162,740 127,542 141,162

95,245 98,149 105,586

66,054 44,772

88,134

35,426 44,923 18,141

40,434 14,901 18,108 31,255

6,349 10,890

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

New Jobs vs. New Permits (2010-2015)

Jobs

Permits

SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Construction Industry Research Board

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_170103_wc232

Data courtesy of:

-1.0% MTM

6.8% YTY

-1.5% MTM

6.2% YTD

-3.0% MTM

-29.7% YTY

0.0% MTM

-16.1% YTY

47 Days

Home Sales

+32.5% YTY

Median Price

$352,500

Unsold Inventory

4.3 Months

For SFH Homes

For SFH Homes

For SFH Homes

For SFH Homes

Trends At A Glance For: November 2016

Median Time on Market

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research & Economics

Alameda County Market Update

$260,000

$280,000

$300,000

$320,000

$340,000

$360,000

$380,000

Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16

525 S. Virgil Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90020 | 213-739-8200 | www.car.org/marketdata| research@car.org

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Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16

Riverside County Market Update

Out Migration: It’s A Housing Story

California has an out-migration problem. Recentlyreleased figures from the State’s Department ofFinance (DOF) shows that the number ofCalifornians leaving the state each year is on therise. After falling significantly during the GreatRecession, outmigration from California is on a 4-year uptrend. The DOF reports that nearly118,000 people moved to other states in 2016,and more than half a million people have leftCalifornia since 2010. Much can be said about ourhigh taxes, hostility towards business, and strictregulatory environment in the Golden State, butour out-migration problem is really a symptom of amuch deeper problem: the lack of housingaffordability in the state.

According the Census Bureau, the top 3destinations for people leaving California in 2015were Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, whichaccounted for nearly two-thirds of all out-migration. These are states where job andeconomic growth has been slower than inCalifornia, which suggests that it isn’t simply abooming economy that is luring our resident away.These states just have less expensive housing:the median home price in Nevada and Arizona isless than half of what it costs to live in California;and in Texas, housing is 66% more affordable.

At the same time, the largest outflows came fromsome of our least affordable housing markets: LosAngeles, Santa Clara, Orange, San Diego, andSan Mateo Counties accounted for virtually all theout-migration from California last year. Our surveyresearch consistently shows that consumers stillbelieve in homeownership as a way to achieve theAmerican Dream, but only 31% of households areable to afford the median-priced home here.

The notion that high housing costs (rather than taxesor business climate) are driving people away is furthersupported by who leaves and what they do in theirnew states. For example, nearly two-thirds of peoplewho left the state purchased homes in their new stateof residence—these are people who want to behomeowners.

The vast majority of out-migrants earned less than$100,000 per year. Given our exceptionallyprogressive tax rates in California, you would expect tosee that higher income earners who pay the mosttaxes leaving. That they are not suggests thatsomething else is the primary motivator. Further, 3 outof every 4 out-migrants were either Millennials or GenX-ers, who have much lower rates of homeownershipthan previous generations. Finally, all of the out-migration was done by those with an Associate’sDegree or less educational attainment.

In short, for many working-age, working-class peoplewho want to own their own homes leaving California isthe only option. California’s migration problem isreally a housing problem.

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Gene WunderlichREALTOR®1st Action RealEstate39785 Golden RodRoadTemecula, CA 92591

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