December 15 vs. December 16 - Homepage | Copernicus · December 15 vs. December 16 and how the...
Transcript of December 15 vs. December 16 - Homepage | Copernicus · December 15 vs. December 16 and how the...
December 15 vs. December 16and how the energy market behaved»
C3S symposium for the Energy Sector
Dr. Matthias Piot, Dr. Christoph ElsässerEnBW AG, Analyses and Evaluations TeamBarcelona, 22.02.2017
EnBW AG - Trading
EnBW Trading
Traded volume 2016Number of trades: 380.000 (17% OTC)Traded power volume: 411TWhTraded gas volume: 788TWhNearly 170 national and international partners
EnBW AG
Production portfolio
Total capacity: 13GWincl. renewables: 3GWincl. wind power: 580MW
Direct marketing:Portfolio: doubled within a year to 4.6GW
What a trader sees…
Source: Thomson Reuters
Information platforms like Reuters, Bloomberg…
+
T°C, wind, solar, demand, …
Public Information: Independent weather providers:
Weather signals in December 2015
Issued in Oct‘15
Issued in Nov‘15
Issued in Dec‘15
Seasonal predictions
Source: CFSv2, NCEP
A steady, warm signal throughout Europe was captured 2 months in advance:
Sub-seasonal predictions
Issued on Nov 25th
Observations:
Very warm / windy December:Germany: +3,5°C Wind: +3 GW (+20%)Stuttgart: +5,2°C
→ Good performances of S2S-Signals
Source: WSI
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Question mark: Super El Nino 2015 and T°C
Generally accepted: Correlation El Nino / NAO ≈ 0,2 (weak)
How do climatologists interpret this signal? Re-evaluation of ENSO-effect on European weather?
High correlation ENSO vs. T°C in northern Hem. (0,8)
Weather signals in December 2016
Issued in Oct‘16
Issued in Nov‘16
Issued in Dec‘16
Seasonal predictions
Source: CFSv2, NCEP
Volatile and controversial signals for temperatures and wind generation:
Sub-seasonal signals Observations:
Suppressed Jet Stream in December:Germany: -0,1°C Wind: -6 GW (-40%)Stuttgart: -0,7°C
→ Poor performances of S2S-Signals, consideration of teleconnections?
Source: WSI
Issued on Nov 30th
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
December 2016Teleconnection signals
Stratospheric polar vortex
Situation in the stratosphere not well integrated by current models?
Can we enhance the integration/understanding of teleconnection signals in S2S-models?
Earliest SSW on record
Courtesy: MetDesk
Impact on the Energy MarketsDec15 vs. Dec16
Evolution of weather has a direct and significant impact on volatility and trend in energy markets
2015:- Low volatility- Clear downward market trend- Low trading interest
2016:- Boost in volatility- Uncertain market view (more usual)- Exacerbated by French nuclear fleet issues
Our message…
December 2015: very warm and windy
- Well predicted by S2S-models
- Induced a low trading interest (low price volatility) and a steady price decline
December 2016: rather calm but also more uncertain
- High model uncertainty even just before the start of month
- High price volatility with ever changing price direction
Significant relationship between S2S-model output and market behavior
Performances of S2S-models is key to trading and portfolio management success
Model consistency and performances need improvement to reinforce growing trust and use from the energy sector