8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 050810

1/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

hursday's theme: The odds favor a narrow range day, but of course anything can happen. Scalp the ranges according to pric

ction of the market leader after the US open (probably euro, but confirm with ES and ESX). Watch earnings, which could end

oving the markets quite a bit if they are anything like HSBC and BNP reports were on Monday.

rade ideas: Buy DAX at support and take profit at value.

ong -- Trade a bounce above 6220, targeting 6310, trail thereafter. If strong responsive buying is seen at 6260, buy and targe

310. Trail stop if order flow agrees.

Conservative range L

Wednesday's volume was back within normal the normal

summer range. The wave pattern has completed here, so there

s a significant chance of a pullback ahead of US employment

data on Friday. The ECB announces policy meeting minutes and

the rate decision. The status quo is expected -- and priced in.

High Extreme: 6455 (123 fib extension)

High primary: 6420 (range estimate)

Low primary: 6260 (below 3d POC, above key fib retracement)

Low Extreme: 6220/30 (7d POC, key fib retracement)

My confidence in this range projection is not high. Rate

decision days are usually quiet, unless there are surprises. The

expectation is no change to rates or posture. I will need to see

decisive price action after the data releases. Until then, one

trade idea. Otherwise, only scalps.

Aggressive range L

ily DAXurnalAug 2010

DAX 30min Wednesday, 04 August 2010

Aggressive range H

3POC

HVN

Conservative range H

Trade a bounce above 6220, or 6260

on strong responsive buying. Target

6310, trail thereafter if order flow

agrees. Reassess after GE factory

orders, ECB announcement.

HVN

The long trade on a bounce from 6320 achieved its target of 6360, with only ten points of heat. Not bad considering

the potential for chop today. The range was a half point shy of the aggressive estimate. The 3 day profile suggests

hesitance at higher prices going into the ECB rate announcement today and US employment data on Friday.

Range studies: Aggressive 112.5; conservative 85; H 6445/50 L 6255/60 Calendar: GE factory orders, ECB rate, US init claims

7POC

Yesterday's target achieved.

8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 050810

2/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Range Studies for DAX 0910 Wednesday, August 04, 2

Previous day range 109.0 Comments:

Previous day pattern WS GMT 0506: I've strayed a bit from the statistical range projections, in favor of what I

consider high probability price points, using a combination of high volume nodes,

retracements, and established support and resistance at previous swing highs and low

Although the trend is up, the odds of a correction are good.

Number of occurrences 94

(last 200 days)

Avg range after WS 75.5%

> 82.5