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CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK AND USAGE EXAMPLES

Agile Practice23.12.2015

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Maksim Gaponov – Agile/Lean Coach

Experience10+ years in IT. Developer background and management experience as a team lead, project manager, product manager and CTO. Worked both in large companies and smaller start-ups. Over 7 years of Agile experience, Maksim is an seasoned coach, trainer and speaker at various conferences, including AgileDays.

Certificates Member of Scrum Alliance, Certified Scrum Product Owner Member of International Consortium for Agile (ICAgile), ICAgile

Certified Professional, ICP-Business Value Analysis, ICP-Agile Coaching, ICAgile accredited trainer

Member of Scrum.org, Professional Scrum Master (PSM I)

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CYNEFIN SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK

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What is sense-making?

“Sense-making is how do we make sense of the world so we can act in it.

If you can't draw a framework on the back off a table napkin from memory it has little utility for sense-making”

Dave Snowden

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Let’s describe the current state of things fistrly

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Complex Adaptive Systems

Understanding through constraints: ­ Order: fully constrained; predictable

& repeatable outcomes ­ Chaos: random, unconstrained,

difficult to create or sustain ­ Complex: system partially

constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

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Let’s take away and map ordered ones

Understanding through constraints: ­ Order: fully constrained; predictable

& repeatable outcomes ­ Chaos: random, unconstrained,

difficult to create or sustain ­ Complex: system partially

constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

Now let’s take away the chaotic ones

Understanding through constraints: ­ Order: fully constrained; predictable

& repeatable outcomes ­ Chaos: random, unconstrained,

difficult to create or sustain ­ Complex: system partially

constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

Finally let’s take away the ones falling into complex description Understanding through constraints: ­ Order: fully constrained; predictable

& repeatable outcomes ­ Chaos: random, unconstrained,

difficult to create or sustain ­ Complex: system partially

constrains behaviour, but behaviour modifies constraint

The inherent uncertainty of a complex systems means we have to navigate a fitness landscape of possibilities

www.luxoft.com

We’re spending most of our time in Complex domain Highly sensitive to small changes

(weak signals too easily dismissed) Granularity, gradient & enabling

constraints Proximity & connectivity are key Shift from fail-safe design to multiple

contradictory safe-to-fail experiments to avoid premature convergence

Avoid confusing correlation with causation or simulation with prediction

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Obvious domain

Nature

Known knowns

Familiar, certain, well worn pathwaysConstraints self-evident to allStable within universal constraints

Self evident solutions

ResponseSense-Categorize-

Respond Ensure sound process in placeMonitor for noncompliance & deviance

Test for complacency

Protect some pet mavericks

Preparation

Watch for outliers

Usable process

Right support people for key staffAutomate, but no automataAnonymous appeal/whistle blowers

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Complicated domain

Nature

Known unknowns

Ordered, predictable, forecastableConstraints evident and enforceable

Stable within constraints

Evidence susceptible of analysis

ResponseSense-Analyze-

RespondDetermine experts or process to resolveManage & enforce processMonitor effectiveness of constraintsFocus on exploitation not exploration

PreparationRight people &

process, right timeProcess engineering with feedbackDiversity of experts in networkSound Analytical practiceStand aside but stay in touch

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Chaotic domain

NatureUnknowable unknowns

Temporary state - no timeNo evidence of any constraintHigh turbulence no patterns Old certainties no longer apply

Response

Act-Sense-Respond

Speed of authoritative response vital Follow and enforce heuristicsFocus on constraints not solutionUse the opportunity to innovate

PreparationEstablish heuristics

& Parables

Human sensor networks

Crews as crisis management teamsSimulation games for key managers Multi-perspective dissent feedback

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Complex domain

NatureUnknown

unknowns Messily coherent, patterns discerniblePartial changing constraints

Flux within stabilities

Evidence supports contradiction

ResponseProbe-Sense-

RespondMonitor safe-to fail experimentsAll contradiction within heuristicsFlex constraints to manage emergence Agility key to amplification/dampening

PreparationCreate time and

space for reflectionHuman sensor networks operationalSocial network stimulation & the like to create networks Scenario planning (inc. micro)Build and monitor ‘requisite diversity’

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Making sense of the world to act in itThere are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic.

Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause

In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder.

The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is shown as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.

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SPLITTING USER STORIES

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Using Cynefin for User Story splitting Obvious – Just build it. Or, if it’s too

big, find all the stories, and do the most valuable ones first.

Complicated – Find all the stories, and do the most valuable and/or most risky ones first.

Complex – Don’t try to find all the stories. Find one or two that will provide some value and teach you something about the problem and solution, build those and use what you learn to find the rest.

Chaotic – Put out the fire; splitting stories probably isn’t important right now.

Disordered – Figure out which domain you’re in before splitting so you don’t take the wrong approach.

Richard Lawrence, http://www.agileforall.com/2014/08/cynefin-and-story-splitting/

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RETROSPECTIVES

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Using Cynefin on Retrospectives Obvious – just implement these

improvements, add them to working agreements

Complicated – find experts in your environment or internal/external consultants, ask them to help you

Complex – brainstorm a set of small and time-bound experiments, find a way to measure outcomes, implement them

Chaotic – distribute knowledge and wait some time until the issue transitions into a complex domain

Disordered – brake these down until they start falling into one of domains

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COLLABORATION WITH COMPANY ENVIRONMENT

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Interventions in the complex domain

Each intervention should be ­ coherent ­ safe-to-fail ­ Finely grained, tangible

Overall the portfolio should contain ­ some that are oblique in nature ­ include “naive” approaches ­ a few high risk/high return options

Contradictions are good!

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Upcoming Agile Practice webinars

Metrics that bring valueJanuary 14, 2016Svetlana Mukhina

User Story CanvasJanuary 26, 2016Maksim Gaponov

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