The Cynefin Framework for

Decision Making

Kuh-nev-in

Dave Hatter PMP, PMI-ACP, PMI-PBA, PSM 1, PSD 1, ITIL

Director, Illustrations Development

Ohio National Financial Services

Outline

Projects are more complex

Why complexity matters

Complex problem solving

Ordered systems

Un-ordered systems

Dealing with complexity

Cynefin Framework

Summary

Further reading

Q & A

Projects are more complex "In today’s fast-paced, competitive, dynamic environment, the challenging characteristics of programs and projects may be viewed as complexity. Efforts to navigate complexity include setting up the appropriate organizational structure, diligently researching programs or projects prior to approval, cultivating talent, fostering leadership, nurturing flexibility and being resilient." - PMI.org

“I think the 21st century will be the century of complexity.” - Professor Stephen W. Hawking, PhD

https://www.pmi.org/learning/featured-topics/complexity

Complexity Complex: "so complicated or intricate as to be hard to understand or deal with." – Dictionary.com

PMI’s Pulse of the Profession™ In-Depth Report: Navigating Complexity (2013)

http://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/learning/thought-leadership/pulse/navigating-complexity.pdf

Complex projects

2018 Pulse of the Profession Report:

"The percentage of projects with high complexity is on the rise-from 35% in 2013 to 41% in 2018"

https://www.pmi.org/learning/thought-leadership/pulse/pulse-of-the-profession-2018

Complex projects

http://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/learning/thought-leadership/pulse/navigating-complexity.pdf

Complexity is now the norm Former IBM CEO Samuel Palmisano said in his

introduction to the 2010 Global CEO Study that complexity is here to stay. In it, business and public sector leaders held three shared perspectives:

1. The world's private and public sector leaders believe that a rapid escalation of "complexity" is the biggest challenge confronting them

2. Their enterprises are not equipped to cope effectively with this complexity in the global environment

3. They identify "creativity" as the single most important leadership competency for enterprises seeking a path through this complexity

Four out of five CEOs expected complexity to increase within the next five years https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/project-complexity-model-competency-standard-6586

CPM

Complex Project Management

The management of projects with these characteristics:

Uncertainty, ambiguity, dynamic interfaces, and significant political or external influences; and/or

Usually run over a period that exceeds the technology cycle time of the technologies involved

Defined by effect, but not by solution

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/project-complexity-model-competency-standard-6586

Why complexity matters The average budget for highly complex

projects is nearly twice as large and more dollars are at risk

McKinsey said when complexity is viewed as "a challenge to be managed and potentially exploited, not a problem to be eliminated, businesses can generate additional sources of profit and competitive advantage."

"Companies that manage complexity are arguably harder to imitate, since doing so requires their competitors to replicate their organizational and operating-model decisions in detail." - McKinsey

http://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/learning/thought-leadership/pulse/navigating-complexity.pdf

Complex problem solving

Complex projects lead to complex problems

We often assume that problem solving is as simple as enumerating the options, selecting an option and executing

The most effective PMs understand that problem solving is not a "one-size-fits-all" process

Decision making approaches should adapt to circumstances

Complex problem solving

In an ordered system causality can be determined

In an un-ordered system causality can not be determined

Sometimes you just can’t determine causality

Determine the best problem solving approach based on your circumstances

Ordered Systems

Ordered system: behavior is highly predictable and causality is either obvious from experience or can be determined with the right expertise

These systems can be deconstructed and reconstructed

Two types of ordered systems:

• Obvious system: Cause and effect is obvious

• Complicated system: Cause and effect is not obvious but can be determined by careful analysis

Un-ordered Systems

Un-ordered system: causality can only be determined in hindsight. No reasonable amount of analysis can predict system behavior

Two types of un-ordered systems:

• Complex system: Cause and effect becomes apparent only in retrospect

• Chaotic system: Cause and effect can not be determined and behavior is random

System state can change

Systems may not be stable, the state can change

A system may degrade over time or it may fail quickly

PMs may rely on common approaches that work well in one set of circumstances but fall short in others

Different problems call for different solutions

Dealing with complexity

Most project managers are prepared to operate in ordered domains (predictive projects)

PMs typically rely on innate skills in unordered domains (complex and chaotic)

Today’s projects are increasingly complex and uncertain. PMs face many “Wicked Problems”

PMs need a framework to guide them when sailing in uncharted territory

Pronounced: Ku-nev-in

"Welsh word that signifies the multiple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand."

https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making

Cynefin

Developed at IBM by Dave Snowden in the 2000’s

Based on systems, complexity, network and learning theories

Snowden and Cynthia Kurtz described it in "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world" in the IBM Systems Journal

Cynefin Framework

Snowden and Mary E. Boone wrote about it in a famous 2007 Harvard Business Review paper titled "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making"

The Cynefin Centre began operating independently of IBM in 2004

Snowden founded Cognitive Edge in 2005

Cynefin Framework

Sense making rather than categorization

Make decisions based on circumstances

Addresses the uncertainty of complex projects and systems

Improves decision making and the likelihood of project success

Compliments traditional PM approaches

Cynefin Framework

Problems fall into one of five domains based on cause and effect

Helps you avoid mistakes when defaulting to a preferred approach

Five domains:

Obvious

Complicated

Complex

Chaotic

Disorder

Cynefin Framework

Dave Snowden, released under CC BY 3.0

Known knowns, all parties

share understanding

Stable and ordered

Cause and effect is clear

Domain of Best Practice

There is a right answer

Sense – Categorize – Respond (SCR)

Sense: establish facts

Categorize: organize facts

Respond: using best practice

Obvious

Dave Snowden, released under CC BY 3.0

Formerly called

“Simple”

Process oriented situations

Command and control style works best

Decisions can be easily delegated

Beware of:

Problems incorrectly classified into this domain

“Entrained thinking”: Inability to see new perspectives due to experience, training, and past success

Complacency that leads to slow reactions and a plunge into the Chaos domain (the cliff)

Obvious

Known unknowns

Cause and effect is not

clear but can be

determined through

expert analysis

Domain of Experts

May be several “correct” answers

Good practice applies

At least one right answer

Complicated

Dave Snowden, released under CC BY 3.0

Sense - Analyze – Respond (SAR)

Sense: establish facts

Analyze: analyze facts

Respond: using good practice

May require experts

It may take a long time to reach a decision

Beware of:

Entrained thinking. Good ideas from non-experts may be dismissed

Analysis paralysis

Complicated

Complex vs Complicated A complicated system is comprised of one or

many parts that might be hard to understand or analyze, but once understood, the relationship between input and outcome is predictable

The path of a hurricane is complex while the path of a rocket is complicated

The distinction between complicated vs complex may change over time based on knowledge. Advances in technology may someday make the behavior of hurricanes merely complicated

https://tcagley.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/complexity-and-complicated-are-different/

Unknown unknowns

Cause and effect only

determined in retrospect

Domain of Emergence

There may not be one correct solution

Doing the same thing twice will likely produce different results

Experiment to find patterns and allow a solution to emerge. Learn by doing!

Many modern projects fall here

Complex

Dave Snowden, released under CC BY 3.0

Probe – Sense – Respond (PSR)

Probe: experiment

Sense: look for patterns

Respond: act based on information gleaned from experiments

Beware of:

Falling back into command-and-control management styles

Intolerance of failure that leads to learning

Impatience which limits learning

Imposing order

Groupthink

Complex

Unknowable unknowns

Cause and effect can’t

be determined

The system is unstable

There are no patterns

Domain of Rapid Response

Novel practice. Previous knowledge is only partially useful

Chaotic

Dave Snowden, released under CC BY 3.0

Act – Sense – Respond (ASR)

Act: establish order and deal with most pressing issues

Sense: find patterns and stability

Respond: move from chaos to complexity

Requires direct, top-down communication

Beware of:

Leaders who excel in this domain becoming egotistical and closed to new information

Missing opportunities to innovate during a crisis

Chaotic

While other domain boundaries have a transition, the boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is more like a cliff

You can fall off the edge into a crisis when you always default to Obvious

Be wary of the idea that past success dictates invulnerability to failure

Try to manage in Complex and Complicated because Obvious is highly vulnerable to rapid change leading to the Cliff

The Cliff to Chaotic

Unclear into which domain an issue fits

Gather more information with the objective of moving an issue into the correct domain

Beware of:

Interpretation of situation based on personal preference for action

Seeing all problems in light of previous solutions

Disorder

Cynefin Framework

Richard Shy: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5frt0AUwAAMRfz.jpg

Cynefin Framework

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/Cynefin_framework_by_Edwin_Stoop.jpg

Sketch of the Cynefin framework, by Edwin Stoop

A great solution applied in the wrong context could be useless or even harmful

Not all outcomes can be predicted and we must respond accordingly

Different situations require different approaches

The Cynefin Framework helps project managers deal with uncertainty in order to make better decisions in today’s increasingly complex projects

Summary

It’s a significant change from reducing every problem to a set of rational actions

When faced with an issue, question your problem solving approach

Determine if the problem can be solved with best practice (Obvious), good practice (Complicated) or whether you need to do a little probing, sensing and responding (Complex or Chaotic)

Avoid Disorder

Beware the Obvious to Chaos cliff

Summary

http://cognitive-edge.com/videos/cynefin-framework-introduction/

https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making

http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf

http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/part-two-origins-of-cynefin/

Further Reading

Outline

Projects are more complex

Why complexity matters

Complex problem solving

Ordered systems

Un-ordered systems

Dealing with complexity

Cynefin Framework

Summary

Further reading

Q & A

Questions?

Dave Hatter PMP, PMI-ACP, PMI-PBA, PSM 1, PSD 1, ITIL

Ohio National Financial Services

david_hatter@ohionational.com

david.hatter@cincinnatistate.edu

www.linkedin.com/in/davehatter

www.twitter.com/davehatter

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