Current State of Photovoltaics - ottawa.peo.on.ca...Current State of Photovoltaics: efficiency-cost...

Current State of Photovoltaics:

efficiency-cost trends, performance, and deployment in Ontario

Dr. Joan Haysom

Sr. Research AssociateSUNLAB Research Group

University of Ottawa

Energy EngineeringHampton Consultants

Mapping a Renewable Energy Future

Projects that are

profitable.

Projects that help

the grid / programs

that encourage

uptake

Slide 2 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

Driving down the price of PV deployments

Lab records

Organics

Silicon

Concentrated

Multi-junction

Thin film CdTe

Perovskites

46%

31- 40%

20 - 25%

21%

11%

Time (years)

Eff

icie

ncy

(%

)

Non-conc. multi-junction

PV Material Efficiency IncreasesIn-field system

production today

30%

$$$

13%

9%

?

?


CPV and Multiple Junction Solar CellsCPV and Multiple Junction Solar Cells

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

280 380 560 760 960 1160 1360 1560 1995 2995 3995

Ra

dia

nce

(a

. u

.)

Wavelength (nm)

e.g. Toronto’s Morgan Solar

Sun Simba (Gen3) on their

dual axis tracker in Mohave


Fresnel lens Concentrator

CPV Module EfficiencyCPV Module Efficiency

Source: SUNLAB research on:

Optics modeling: P. Sharma et al,

4J dilute nitrides: M. Wilkins et al;

1. Move to higher

concentrations >1000x

2. Optimize

• Cell efficiency(refine layer structure, doping,

add more layers, etc)

• Optical efficiency(high uniformity, low chromatic

aberration, wide acceptance

angle, etc)

3. Design for low cost

manufacturing

��=80%→90%

��=40 → 50%


Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

Installed System Capital Costs & Learning Rates

Source: Sunlab Research

J.E. Haysom et al, Prog. PV, 2014

2.8 $/W

2013 utility scale prices:

2.6 $/W

System Cost = Module + BOS

Source: GTM Research

Balance of System (BOS)

(racking, inverter, labour, fees, profit)

now more than 50% of cost


PV System Economics


� �

�

��

Escalation &

degradation

rates

Financial

discount rate

Return on Investment or

Net Present Value

Initial capital costs

Revenues


� �

�

��

��

��

��

Escalation &

degradation

rates

Financial

discount rate

Return on Investment or

Net Present Value


Irradiance

on panel

W/m2

Photovoltaic

efficiency

Surface

area

m2

System efficiency(aka performance ratio)

Electricity

tariff in

$/kWh

Revenues

(1) Efficiencies and (2) Costs and (3) Bankability

(4) Bifacial PV panels


�(��) = � �� · �� · � �� · · (��) · 1��

��

Irradiance on

panel

W/m2

Surface

area

m2

Bifacial Energy Prediction

• Module Power Output depends on the properties of the environment:

• Reflectivity of the

ground & surrounding

objects

• non-uniformity of

cloudy sky

• Shadows from racking,

etc

Source: Sunlab research by

Robert. Li

Collaboration with CelesticaSlide 12 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

5) Optimizing for a time-dependent tariff


Ontario large user

~45% bill based on demand

in top five summer hours

(GA factor)

Sacramento, CA

Peak $0.22/kWh

Low 6.6¢/kWh

Las Vegas, NV

Summer super peak $0.30/kWh

Low 4¢/kWh

West

of

So

uth

West

of

So

uth

West

of

So

uth

Panel Tilt angle Panel Tilt angle Panel Tilt angle

Source: Sunlab & Telfer Research

J.E. Haysom et al, Prog. PV, 2015

�(��) = � �� · �� · � �� · · (��) · 1��

��

Peak Hours Power Demand Reduction on a campus-type electricity bill

PV matches Ontario grid peak pretty well

⇒ on avg 50% of PV nameplate rating should be available during ON grid peaks

⇒ orient 60degWofS for best match

Subsections of a

Class A >3MW

Bill

based on % of bill on

avg at uO

% of PV

project saving

Energy Market Price, kWh 39% 20%

Demand Monthly peak, kW 18% 14%

Global Adjustment Factor related to usage

during Ontario’s grid

peak, kW

43% 66%


� �

�

��

��

��

��

degradation

rates

Financial

discount rate


Irradiance

on panel

W/m2

Photovoltaic

efficiency

Surface

area

m2

System

efficiency

Electricity

tariff in

$/kWh

Outdoor testing: (6) Performance and

Degradation and (7) Solar Resource Accuracy

SUNLAB Solar Test Site801 King Edward, parkade of Minto Sportsplex

Longterm

logging of a large

# of instruments

⇒ 2 min

timesteps

⇒ Direct, global

and diffuse

irradiance

⇒ Spectrum

⇒ Weather

⇒ PV & CPV

systems


Multiyear Irradiance Dataset Paper

J.E. Haysom et al, submitted to PVSC 2016

The Solar Market

Where is solar on deployment volumes and costs versus other grid generation

Global PV Production Today:

Estimated PV Electricity Production Based on 2014 Installed Capacity

Source: 2014: A Snapshot of Global PV Markets

8%

5%

1%

0

slide courtesy of Yves Poissant, CanMETSlide 18 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

1% of the world electricity generation is

now provided by PV

19

Canadian Solar Resource

• Most of Canada has more sun

than Germany (the #3)

• Ottawa has very good solar

potential within Canada

Germany


Source: Natural Resources Canada

Utility Interconnected PV Systems 2014

Canadian Deployments


Ontario highlights

• 99% is in Ontario, equalling

1.5% of provincial capacity

• 600MW PV modules produced

in Ontario in 2013,

manufacturing capacity of 1GW

• Industry exported $200M in

2013, or 20% of production

graphic courtesy of Yves Poissant, CanMET

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)for Solar in Ottawa

For new build in ~ 2015$18/kW/yr maintenance, 7% discount rate, 0.5% deg per year, 25 year life, no debt costs

Installation

Cost ($/W)

LCOE

($/kWh)

$2.25 0.19

$2.48 0.21

$2.70 0.22

$2.93 0.24

Sensitivity to cost

Nominal 500kW

system assumed:

⇒19–24 ¢/kWh

�� =

∑ ��

∑�� Scaled actual energy output from Hydro Ottawa PV systems (microFITs scaled to 500kW)

Source: Sunlab research by

J.E. Haysom et al, Report #2

Collaboration with Hydro OttawaSlide 21 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

Decreasing Feed In Tariffs (Ontario)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

FIT

Ta

riff (

¢ / k

Wh

)

Year

microFIT

Rooftop FIT<100kW

Rooftop FIT<500kW

Ground FIT<500kW2016:

20 to 29 ¢/kWh

Slide 22 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016Source: OPA & IESO Rate Schedules

via Hampton Consultants

My Dec 2015 Hydro Bill


Net Avg cost on my Dec bill was

11¢/kWh for TOU charges (62%)

+ =17¢

6¢/kWh grid operation (38%)

PEAK NET RETAIL COST

= 17.5¢ + 6¢ = 23.5¢

(includes EV charging)

Electricity pricing – the value of when and where


• Peak is the most expensive energy

• Top peak hour + margin set required

grid capacity

5-8 ¢/kWh

10-16 ¢/kWh

• Losses = 7% avg, 11% peak

• Cost of infrastructure, O&M

Costs vs Value of Distributed Generation

Source: Perez et al, Energy Policy 39 (2011)Slide 25 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

Ontario Long Term Energy Plan 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Fo

recast

Pro

du

cti

on

(T

Wh

)

Non-Hydro Renewables

Natural Gas and Imports

Source: Ontario LTEP 2013 module 4

via Hampton ConsultantsSlide 26 Joan Haysom Ottawa PEO Sustainability Workshop Feb. 3, 2016

Regulatory

Adaptations

Deployable

solutions

Winning

business

models

A high renewable energy grid

Scalable

Low risk

Low carbon

Distributed

Lowest cost

long term

PV

materialsPV

products

Power

electronics,

software

and

controls

Social

support

+ all the other

technologiesLots of Conservation

Hydro, Wind, Bio, Geo,

Thermal, Co-gen

batteries

optimization

Systems

thinking

Political

Leadership


Thank you very much!

Backup

DC AC

AC

AC

Connecting to the Grid

45389

45389

45389

DC AC

AC

AC

Current State of Photovoltaics - ottawa.peo.on.ca...Current State of Photovoltaics: efficiency-cost...

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