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CULTURAL CONSENSUS ON CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD LEADERSHIP IN AFGHANISTAN:

Policy Implications for the Development of Future Generations of Leaders

February 27th 2012

Ahmad Idrees Rahmani

Doctoral Fellow

Pardeed RAND Graduate School

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TABLE OF CONTENT

1. Objective a. Policy Issues b. Policy Question c. Research Question

2. Background

a. History b. Leadership Literature c. Preliminary Study

3. Methods

a. State – 1: i. Sample

ii. Data Collection iii. Analysis

b. Stage – 2: i. Sample

ii. Data Collection iii. Data Analysis

4. Policy Conclusions

5. Timeline

6. References

7. Dissertation Committee

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OBJECTIVE

Policy Issue:

As the Afghan and international communities cast their gaze toward the threshold

year of 2014, they must begin to lay the foundations for what will emerge as

effective leadership in a post-transition world (Wilson 2011). Hamish Wilson, a

senior stabilization advisor for the Foreign Office of British Government based in

Northern Helmand, believes two crucial issues will threaten the prospects of

stability over that time if they are overlooked – the strength of Afghan institutions

such as it’s security forces and government administration, and the effectiveness of

their leaders. Wilson goes further and makes it clear that there are simply not

enough resources to adequately accelerate the daunting task of developing local

leadership in time for the deadline of transition. “There are only six in my team, yet

we are working with the Police, Prosecutor, Governor’s team, Line Ministry officials,

local leaders, Council members... there is a real risk that it is too little too late...”

Finally, Wilson concludes that, the sacrifices of the past decade and the intensive

efforts of the next few years will only create the conditions for a durable political

settlement, for a lasting peace, if Afghan leadership succeeds1.

Policy Question:

Leaders will not succeed unless they posses the characteristics that are perceived to

be good, particularly, those that for the followers, are associated with success. This

is more of an issue in traditional societies where definitions of goodness and success

are the product of many cultural and societal norms and standards. While every

1 http://www.peopleinaid.org/pool/files/pubs/building-leadership-for-transition-afghanistan-(2011).pdf

The most dangerous leadership myth is that leaders are born – that there is a genetic factor to leadership. This myth asserts that people simply either have certain charismatic qualities or not. That's nonsense; in fact, the opposite is true. Leaders are made rather than born… - Warren G. Bennis

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expert of Afghanistan agrees with Wilson’s conclusion, the policy questions that

need to be answered are:

1. What does good leadership mean for different groups of the Afghan

population? Is there any consensus on the concept of good leadership

amongst the Afghan population at the national level? If not, what variations

across different groups of population and different types of leadership exist?

2. To what extent the perceived characteristics of good leadership viewed as

achievable (versus being granted by nature)? What if Afghans associate

goodness with a leader’s identity? What if different groups of the Afghan

population associate goodness with different types of identity?

Research questions:

The aim of my research is to examine variation in cultural consensus among

different groups of the Afghan population over the most important characteristics of

good leadership. I am particularly exploring the degree of variation in key

characteristics of a President that are associated more with success and popularity.

The research questions that I am going to examine in this study are the following:

1. What are the key characteristics that Afghan people recognize as being most

important for a good leader?

To what degree do the characteristics that Afghans want to see in their

leaders vary across different types of leadership positions?

To what degree do these characteristics vary across different groups of

the Afghan population (ethnic, gender, generation, rural/urban, social

class, etc.)?

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2. To what degree the perceived good characteristics of a President are

achievable (i.e. education, clean records, etc.) versus unachievable (i.e. ethnic

affiliation, religious affiliation, tribal affiliation, etc.)?

To what degree do these perceptions vary across ethnic, gender, age,

social class, and rural/urban population lines?

To what degree do these perceptions vary across different types of

leadership positions?

The study will use the answer to these questions to develop policy

recommendations to the country’s educational institutions, as well as the electoral

and the Parliamentarian institutions, to shape a platform through which future

generations of leaders are equipped with appropriate characteristics that are

perceived to be associated with good leadership. Understanding the degree of

variation of answers to these questions might also have significant implications for

broader Afghan and international policies that are beyond the scope of the research.

BACKGROUND & MOTIVATION

History

Regardless of what characteristics are most appreciated for good leadership, one of

the central elements of having effective influence among the followers is to possess

the characteristics that are culturally admired in a particular society. The future of a

country, to a great extent, is determined by the level of influence of its political

leaders, as much as by the vision they possess. From the founding fathers of the

United States to the great leaders of Asia, it has been the effective influence of

leaders that has allowed them to realize their visions.

Some characteristics of leadership have been discussed by different scholars as

being important in the context of Afghanistan’s political life. One of them that is

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often emphasized more than others is that a good political leader2 has to belong to a

Pashtun ethnic group, or even more specifically to the Durani tribe. Pashtuns have

been the dominant ethnic group in modern Afghanistan since the mid-eighteenth

century and currently comprise about 40 percent of the country’s total population

(Barfield 2010: 24). “The share of power in Afghanistan [has] mostly been [based]

on Pashtun domination throughout Afghan history” (Jose Oberson 2002). Shahrani

(2000) believes that “the cornerstone of kin-based mode of Pashtun tribal, social

and political organization…has been the defining attribute of Afghan politics since

the creation of Pashtun-dominated centralized polity”. Some scholars have gone

further and have concluded that for the Pashtuns good leadership is not even

transferable across different generations. “Leadership cannot be transmitted and is

inherent in the individual…the good and great qualities of a leader are buried with

him in his grave” (Ahmed 1980: 158)

While it is true that for the most of the last two centuries3 Afghanistan was

politically led by a series of Pashtun leaders mainly coming from Durani tribes, and

it is also true that in 1921, when a Tajik leader rose to power, considerable political

instability was triggered in the southern parts of the country, there is no academic

agreement whether the revolt was more driven by the rise of a non-Pashtun leader,

or by other phenomena. There are, in fact, two major competing theories of group

dynamics that are often used to explain violence. In addition to the already noted

ethnic theory, there is a theory that attributes conflict to a disconnect between

Afghanistan’s traditional rural population and progress-oriented urban elites. “The

urbanized Pashtun in Qandahar or a Tajik in Kabul experiences a political,

occupational, and cultural milieu far removed from their fellow Pashtuns or Tajiks

inhabiting remote mountainous of Uruzghan or Badakhshan” (Barfield 2010: 65).

The rebellion of the rural population, mostly mobilized by traditional tribal and

religious values, “[has] less to do with [ethnicity or] Islam than it [does] with the

2 In this case, particularly, they meant “legitimate” or “acceptable” leader rather than good leader. 3 Except for the two decades of war and instability (1979 – 1991)

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long-standing clash of values between luxury-loving urbanites and the puritanical

rural villagers who had come to wield power over them” (Barfield 2010: 65).

After President Dawood’s death in 1978 many different Pashtun tribes and non-

Pashtun leaders rose to power, yet all of them faced political instability. However,

only the non-Pashtun leaders were perceived to have been generating a Pashtun

nationalistic sentiment that contributed to the instability. “The resistance that

followed the Soviet invasion of 1979 as well as the subsequent civil war allowed

non-Pashtun ethnic groups to assert political and economic autonomy both from the

state and from Pashtun dominance. From 1992 to 1996, the mainly Tajik Jamiat-i

Islami party under President Burhanuddin Rabbani controlled the central

government. Pashtun opposition to a Tajik- dominated political order, and support

from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, paved the way for the Taliban, a largely Pashtun

fundamentalist movement that ruled most of the country from 1996 to 2001”4 (ICG

Report No. 62 2003: 2).

However, post Taliban

political development

of Afghanistan, once

again, produced

conflicting results that

could not be explained

by either theory. First,

a Pashtun leadership

from the Durani

dynasty could not

bring political stability.

Second, both

4 Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun Alienation ICG Asia Report N°62, 5 August 2003, pp2

Figure 1 shows distribution of provinces to leading presidential candidates in 2004 election

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presidential elections produced highly polarized results along ethnic lines that

included the votes from both urban and rural population.

The mapped data published by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) of

Afghanistan shows distribution of provinces to leading candidates driven mostly by

majority ethnic group in each province (Hamed Karzai Pashtun, Younus Qanooni

Tajik, Mahqiq Hazara, and Dostum Uzbek)5. With a few exceptions (Herat, Balkh,

Takhar, Badghis), every province with a majority ethnic group voted for the

presidential candidate belonging to that ethnic group. This ethnically polarized

result was worse in the second presidential election, in 2009. While these elections

were not perfectly done, and many additional factors influenced the voting behavior

of the Afghan population, one can still notice the relevance of the policy question for

the future leaders of the country. What is it that different groups of Afghan people

want to see in their leaders before they perceive them as good leaders? How do

they vary across different types of leadership positions? How could future

generations of Afghan leaders become more legitimate, more successful and more

influential? If no consensus nationwide, what composition of leaders from different

groups is viewed just and fair?

There is very little – almost no – academic literature that examines these important

policy questions in the context of Afghanistan. The few scholars who have studied

Afghan leadership culture and the dynamics of political leadership in the context of

tribal communities of Pashtuns tend to disagree with each other, and offer

conflicting theories.

With respect to the variations of characteristics of good leadership perceived by

different groups of the Afghan population, my literature search has found no

academic studies so far.

5 http://www.iec.org.af/Public_html/Election%20Results%20Website/english/english.htm

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Leadership Literature:

Despite the fact that there is no academic literature on the variation of

characteristics of leadership in the context of Afghanistan, there is a vast literature

that discusses the topic of leadership in the context of societies other than

Afghanistan. While these studies are important and generally applicable to any

context, they are not adequate, and in some cases not relevant to the cultural mosaic

of Afghanistan.

A general assertion is made that leadership is primarily determined by the character

and personality of the leader as well as the environment in which certain events and

decisions engrave [a] leader’s image in the eyes of their followers (Chemers 2000).

Leadership research can be reduced to focusing on the functions that leaders must

perform to be successful. Leaders must produce an image that arouses trust in

followers, develops relationships with subordinates that enable subordinates to

move forward individual and collective goal attainment (Barlow et al 2003).

Kirkpatick and Locke (1991) argue for the importance of character as a leadership

trait. They conducted a qualitative synthesis of earlier research postulating that

leaders differ from followers on six traits: drive, desire to lead, honesty and

integrity, self-confidence, cognitive ability, and knowledge of the business in which

they are supposed to lead. Some researchers such as Barlow et al. believe that these

six traits define a leader’s character for his/her followers. Some other scholars

defined character as doing the right things despite outside pressure to the contrary

(Lickona, 1991). The root of the word “character” is the Greek word for engraving,

but according to Barlow, applied to humans, it refers to the enduring marks left by

life that sets one apart from others. Typically, enduring marks are set early in life by

our religious beliefs, parental influences, education, and early interactions as a child

(Barlow et al, 2003).

Other authors suggest traits we should look for in leaders: character, vision, and

political capacity (Gergen 2001). Clowney (2001) suggests that “ethic” comprising of

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sincerity, honesty, and humbleness are the main traits of leadership in our era.

Josephson (1991) asserts that leader’s achievements are shaped by the collection of

dispositions, habits, attitudes, education, and skills. Barlow et al (2003) summarizes

the 12 dimensions of leadership traits in a more systematic way:

1. “Integrity. Consistently adhering to a moral or ethical code or standard. A

person who consistently chooses to do the “right things” when faced with

alternate choices.

2. Honesty. Consistently being truthful with others.

3. Loyalty. Being devoted and committed to one’s organization, supervisors,

coworkers, and subordinates.

4. Selflessness. Genuinely concerned about the welfare of others and willing to

sacrifice one’s personal interest for others and their organization.

5. Compassion. Concern for the suffering or welfare of others and provides aid

or shows mercy for others.

6. Competency. Capable of performing tasks assigned in a superior fashion and

excels in all task assignments. Is effective and efficient.

7. Respectfulness. Shows esteem for, and consideration and appreciation of

other people.

8. Fairness. Treats people in an equitable, impartial, and just manner.

9. Responsibility and Self-Discipline. Can be depended upon to make rational

and logical decisions and to do tasks assigned. Can perform tasks assigned

without supervision.

10. Decisiveness. Capable of making logical and effective decisions in a timely

manner. Does not “Shoot From the Hip,” but does promptly make a good

decision after considering data appropriate to the decision.

11. Spiritual Appreciation. Values the spiritual diversity among individuals with

different backgrounds and cultures and respects all individuals rights to

differ from others in their beliefs.

12. Cooperativeness. Willingness to work or act together with others in

accomplishing a task or some common end or purpose.”

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While all of these characteristics of leadership are important, some characteristics

that leaders are born with, such as charisma, good looks, belonging to a noble family,

or belonging to a specific ethnic group are not discussed in the Western literature.

However, they might be relevant in some Afghan communities.

Preliminary Study:

Given the shortage of academic work on this subject in the context of Afghanistan,

and also, given that applicability of a cultural consensus model in the context of

Afghanistan needed some testing, I decided to conduct some preliminary data

collection and analysis to see whether there are variations across a small sample of

respondents6, and whether such variations are detectable by the methodology

chosen. To do this, I interviewed 60 average Afghan citizens (20 Hazaras, 20

Pashtuns and 20 Tajiks) and gave them the question of; could you please list for me

the main characteristics of; 1) a good human being, 2) a good leader, and 3) a good

president. The respondents were allowed to freely list the characteristics for each of

these personalities on a piece of paper based on their personal preferences.

The responses were than categorized based on repetition of key words, and turned

into two mode matrices of respondent by items. If an item was mentioned by a

respondent, the cell corresponding to the item (in the column) and the respondent

(in the row) was scored 1, otherwise 0. Even though free listing does not produce

comparable data across different respondents7, the result do suggest a general

cultural domain for key characteristics of leadership as different groups of people

included similar items in their free lists. The data also detected some variations

across different ethnic groups and considerable variations across different types of

leadership. Thus, seems to confirm the relevance of this thesis and applicability of

the methodology chosen for the study.

6 Samples were mostly selected in the urban area of Kabul City. 7 Because informants responded based on different assumption, and based on how their memory worked at the time of interview

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Furthermore, UCINET social network software was used to compute the consensus

amongst respondents, and visualize the variations across different groups of people.

In the graph below a red dot represents a respondent and every blue cube

represents an item (characteristics of a President).

Respondents 1 to 20 are Pashtuns, 21 to 40 are Hazaras, and 41 to 60 Tajiks. The

more lines going through a blue cube suggests more popularity of that characteristic

among different groups of respondents. A blue cube surrounded by red dots

suggests more consensus over that characteristic than a cube appearing on the

margins of the chart. In the chart above, “education” and “ethnically not biased”

seem to be more important characteristics of leadership for these respondents than

being an Afghan or being a Muslim8. Even with a very small sample and very basic

analysis9, variation across different groups of people and different characteristics of

leadership appears to be detectable.

8 When we asked them what do you mean by “An Afghan” the response was not having two passports which means not

having double citizenship 9 The actual cultural consensus analysis is not yet applied on this data. Please refer to the methodology section for more detail in this regard.

Figure 2 Consensus on characteristics of a successful and popular president based on 60 responses in Kabul City

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Characteristics more associated with a good human being (our control question in

this preliminary study) are completely different from those of the President and the

political leader. This is a good indication that even with such a small number of

samples, variation of characteristics across different types of leadership position is

detectable. The similarity of characteristics between a President and a political

leader is most probably due to respondents’ assumption that the position of a

political leader is as important as that of a President, or possibly because of having

very similar traits. In fact, those two terms are used interchangeably in Afghanistan

except that the term political leader is also used for a religious leader (Jehadi

leader), a political party leader, or even a highly powerful tribal leader, who are

political active, but the term President is used only for one position—the head of the

state.

Figure 3 Consensus on characteristics of a successful and popular political leader

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Figure 4 Consensus on characteristics of successful and popular human being (control question)

METHODOLOGY

Since my research questions are designed to detect and describe variations in

Afghan’s perception of good leadership characteristics, and there is no quantitative

data available in this regard, I will need to collect my own primary data. Collecting

primary data often entails survey research. Because we don’t know the right answer

to what constitutes key characteristics of good leadership for the Afghans, we

cannot ask questions for which the right answers are a priori known. In the absence

of right answers, a good methodology for producing good results is the Cultural

Consensus Analysis Model (Bernard 2006). Cultural consensus analysis uses a

mathematical model to determine the degree of shared knowledge within groups

and estimates the “culturally correct” answers where an answer was previously

unknown…the analysis initially solves for individual estimates of competency by

factoring an agreement (correlation) matrix among informants10. The ratio between

10 Romney et al. (1986) is a very good resource for understanding how the mathematical framework of the model works.

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the first and second eigenvalues determines whether a single factor solution exists,

which would indicate a single, shared cultural belief system (Chavez et al 1995). As

Russell Barnard describes in his book, the theory behind the model has three

assumptions:

1. Informants share a common culture and there is a culturally correct answer

to any question you ask them. The culturally correct answer might be

incorrect from an outsider’s perspective (as often happens when we compare

folk knowledge about illness to biomedical knowledge). Any variation you

find among informants is the result of individual differences in their

knowledge, not the result of being [a] member of [a] culture.

2. Informants give their answers to your test questions independently of one

another.

3. All the questions in your test come from the same cultural domain – that is,

things that can be listed, like kinds of animals or hand tools, or things you can

do on a weekend. People can be competent in one domain but incompetent in

another. Cultural consensus method must be used for people who are

knowledgeable about a particular domain.

To use the consensus technique, simply give a sample of informants a test that asks

them to make some judgments about a list of items in a cultural domain. You can use

true-false questions, Likert scale questions, multiple-choice questions, or fill-in-the-

blank questions. The cultural consensus model is an important contribution to the

social science method (Bernard 2006)11.

In this research I will employ a cultural consensus model in the second stage, but

before that, I will use some other other methods, such as free listing and pile sorting,

to determine the cultural domain of good leadership and key items of the domain:

11 For more technical details about the cultural consensus model please refer to Romney et al. 198611, Caulkins 2001,

de Munck et al. 2002, Furlow 2003, Swora 2003, Harvey and Bird 2004, Jaskyte and Dressler 2004, and Miller et al. 2004.

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1. Stage One: Identifying the range of characteristics that Afghans associate

them with good leadership. Pile sorting of those characteristics to produce

the key bins of characteristics, and defining each bin through a series of

analysis.

2. Stage Two: Using the answers from stage one to develop a structured

questionnaire that can be administered on different groups of the Afghan

population to determine the cultural consensus among and between different

groups. I will also use, additional methods such as factor analysis to cross

check my analysis, and finally apply those characteristics to some key

political leaders so the readers understand what each characteristics mean to

different groups of the Afghan population.

Stage – 1:

The set of open-ended questions that will be employed for the first phase of the

study are intended to produce Free Lists, which are very useful in determining the

overall cultural domain of good leadership characteristics. Free listing is a common

elicitation technique in the social sciences (Weller and Romney 1988) 12 .

Researchers use free lists to identify items in a cultural domain and to calculate each

item’s relative psychological or cultural saliences (i.e., prominence, importance,

familiarities or representativeness)13. Other researchers use free lists to measure

cognitive characteristics of informants, including their knowledge of a domain and

their categorization patterns14. I will also employ pile sorting and triad methods.

1. Sample: for the purpose of generating a master list of items included in the

cultural domain of good leadership, we do not need a probability sampling. This

12 Bernard 1994 and Borgatti 1999 also provide very good overview of elicitation techniques. 13 Successive Free Listing: Using Multiple Free Listing to Generate Explanatory Models. Gery Ryan and Justin Nolan,

2000. 14 For more technical details about the use of Free Listing please see Chapter One of Stephan Borgatti’s 1998 book,

“Elicitation Techniques for Cultural Domain Analysis”, and also Greenwood 1983; Brewer 1995; Robbins and Nolan 1997.

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is because the essence of a cultural domain is existence of common shared

knowledge amongst a group of informants who come from the same domain and

are competent about their culture. For example if we ask 10 doctors about the

main causes of pneumonia we most probably get the same sets of answers, and it

might not vary that much if we ask the same question from 100 doctors. Gery

Ryan suggests collecting 20 samples and checking for the variation of items, and

then collecting another 10 to 15 samples. If the most frequently mentioned

items did not vary more than 10%, that means sampling maturity has occurred

and we do not need to sample further. For the purpose of this study I will collect

30 to 50 samples from all strata of population (ethnic groups, age, gender,

rural/urban settlers, social class, etc.).

2. Data collection: each respondent will be given the same set of open-ended

questions such as the following examples:

I. Could you please list the characteristics of a good human being?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

This question will serve as the baseline or control question to detect

whether cultural domain of leadership is defined differently from that of an

average human being.

II. Could you please list the characteristics of a good leader?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

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c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

This question will help us produce a master list of the characteristics that

Afghans associate with good leadership.

III. Who are considered good leaders in our society, could you please list?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

IV. Where do you think good leaders come from, how they are brought up?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

V. How did they become good leaders, can you list the key factors?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

VI. What do you expect a good leader to do, could you please list?

a. Ask probe questions to get more items on the list.

b. For each item listed ask the follow up question of how would you

verify/measure presence or absence of those characteristics.

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c. If items included general terms, ask for specific definition that the

respondents have in mind.

The last three questions intend to explore the institutions that are perceived to

be developing/generating new generation of leaders in Afghanistan. It is

important to know what institutions are given the credit for bring up new

leaders of the country.

The response from all informants will be entered into an excel sheet and will be

translated into local languages and back to English with rigorous checking for

consistency and standardization in the use of synonyms.

3. Data analysis: the data entered into excel sheets will be categorized for each

question to list specific words repeated in each respondent’s answers to

different questions. A collection of all the characteristics that different

respondents use will give us a master list, which will be used as the head row

defining all the

columns. The

names or IDs for

each respondent

are used as the

first column

defining each row.

An item by

respondent matrix

is produced by

scoring 1 in each

cell if the

corresponding

respondent has Figure 5: Example of Scree Plot from preliminary data analysis

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mentioned the item in his/her responses, and 0 otherwise. The two-mode

matrix produced in this manner is then used to generate a scree plot15 by adding

across different columns which gives us the frequency of items mentioned by the

informants. A visible knee of the scree plot (defined by an arrow in the graph

above) will be used to decide on the number of most important characteristics to

be further studied in the second stage of research.

Alternatively we could use pile sorting and/or triad methods to group a number

of characteristics that belong to the same sub-domain.

Stage – 2:

The second phase of the study is essentially composed of a representative survey of

many different groups of informants who vary on their demographic patterns and

are expected to have varying views about characteristics of leadership in

Afghanistan. The exact survey research questions for this phase will be produced

based on the results of the free listing and pile sorting exercise in the first stage.

However, the form of survey questions in the second stage will be mostly Likert

scale, multiple choice, agree/disagree, and fill-in-the-blank questions. We need

these types of questions in order to use the cultural consensus model for the

analysis of the data16.

The analytical methods used for this study are going to be a hybrid of qualitative

and quantitative analysis. For example; Social Network Analysis software, UCINET

will be used to analyze and visualize the data, which is essentially based on

quantitative methods. Additional methods such as factor analysis, cluster analysis,

multi dimensional scaling, focus group and structured interviews might also be used

to generate and analyze the data.

15 Scree Plot is a term used by STATA software for depiction of frequency (figure 5 shows an example) 16 Please see Romney 1986 for more technical details.

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1. Sample: for the purpose of the survey in the second stage, all respondents are

going to be stratified across ethnic groups, gender, age, social class, and

rural/urban settlements. One of the key conditions for this model to produce

robust results is that the respondents are selected such that they share cultural

knowledge, and are their cultural competency is above average (0.5)17. Most

analysis and cross comparison will be conducted at the marginal (column) level

unless funding is available to collect large number of samples to maintain

acceptable levels of significance at joint (cell) level. If average cultural

competency amongst respondents is between 0.7 and 0.8, the model produces

robust results at 95% confidence interval with only 4 samples per strata. If

increased to 27 samples 99.9% confidence interval is maintained (Romney

1986). For the test to reliably distinguish cultural competence among

informants, it is best to have about 40 questions in the questionnaire (Russell

Bernard 2006), but in this study I might need to include more questions in the

questionnaire because most of the variation comes from the number of

questions not the number of samples, which is another unique property of the

model that ensures cost effectiveness of the study.

For this research I am aiming at 4 samples per strata to allow comparisons

across cells (at 95% Confidence Interval), and across columns (at 99%

Confidence Interval). That means 64 X 4 = 256 responses are needed to examine

cultural consensus on good leadership across different groups of population in

Afghanistan18.

2. Data collection: A survey composed of about 40 to 50 questions will be

developed based on data collected in the first stage of the study. Survey

questionnaire will be translated in both Farsi and Pashtu languages and

crosschecked for clarity through back translation and reliability check using item

17 Please see Romney 1986 for more details. 18 As discussed I will have about 64 strata; rural/urban, men/women, old/new generations, elite/non-elite informants,

and four ethnic groups composing of Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks. A complete list of different sample options is calculated by Romney 1986 which could be used as the basis of sample calculation.

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response theory. The data from the survey will be entered into an Excel sheet

and checked for systematic measurement error and consistency in spelling. As I

described for stage one, the data will be turned into a two-mode matrix by

scoring each respondent’s measure of agreement or disagreement with each

question. Therefore, cells corresponding to each characteristics of leadership

and each respondent will contain figures ranging from 1 to 10 (or any other

range given the type of question).

3. Data Analysis: While two-dimensional matrices are the direct input for UCINET

software for some analysis one-dimensional matrices will also be produced.

One-dimensional matrices are, particularly used for multi dimensional scaling

and cluster analysis where variation and similarity of different groups of

Afghans over each characteristics of leadership are calculated and presented in

visual graphics19.

POLICY CONCLUSIONS

While the exact policy conclusions of the study will obviously depend on the data

that will be collected and analyzed, there are a few possible conclusions that I expect

will result from such an analytical exercise, and they will have important policy

implications for the people of Afghanistan, as well as the international community.

The most extreme scenarios that may have critical policy conclusions would be:

The data suggesting lack of consensus both across and within groups of the

population over key characteristics of good leadership. This would imply a

number of conflict management policy recommendations in the near term, and

large-scale education in the long run to education people on the extreme

diversity of views in the society.

19 For more technical details about matrices please refer to Bernard 2006.

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The data suggesting lack of consensus across different groups of population, but

presence of consensus within each group. This would imply the need for policies

that ensure access to resources, as well as equal opportunity for all groups to

train and raise their own leaders into the country’s leadership system.

The data suggesting consensus over the type of characteristics that is not

necessarily achievable by all Afghans equally. For example, if there is consensus

that good leadership is determined by blood relationship to a specific ethnic

group or tribe. This would imply need for policies towards more public

education campaigns to raise public awareness about the challenges that such

views might entail and public education to build consensus.

The data suggest that there is national consensus over achievable characteristics

such as education, representativeness, accountability, etc. This would be the best

case scenario and would imply specific policy recommendations to different

national institutions to prepare the next generations of Afghan leaders with the

characteristics that Afghans want to see in their leaders.

The policy recommendations could also entail specific measures for revisiting the

form of governance, and structure of political institutions to accommodate diverse

expectations of different groups of the population. Or it could also imply adjustment

of international assistance, which will be discussed if the data suggested so.

24

TENTATIVE TIMELINE

27th of February 2012: dissertation proposal defense

1st of March through 1st of August: fund raising and literature review

2nd of August through end of November: first round of Data Collection

1st of October through end of October: analysis of data and questionnaire

development.

1st of December through end of March 2013: second round of data collection

1st of April 2013 through 1st of June: analysis and review of data from second

stage of study.

10th of June 2013 through 1st of August: conducting policy analysis and search

for viable and feasible policy recommendation

15th of September 2013: where I am stuck presentation

1st January 2014: preparation of first draft of dissertation

1st February 2014: review of draft dissertation by committee members

1st May 2014: incorporation of feedbacks from review.

1st April 2014: dissertation seminar and final submission.

25

REFERENCES

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Report No. 62). Retrieved February 2, 2012 from

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/062-

afghanistan-the-problem-of-pashtun-alienation.aspx

Afghanistan Presidential Election Results – 2004 (Map). Retrieved Jan 5, 2012

from

http://www.iec.org.af/Public_html/Election%20Results%20Website/english/e

nglish.htm

Akbar, A.S. (1976). Millenium and Charisma among Pathans: A Critical Essay in

Social Anthropology. London: Routledge.

Barfield, T. (2010). Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History (pp. 24–65). New

Jersey, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Barlow, C.B., and Jordan M. (2003). Character Assessment: An Examination of

Leadership Levels. Journal of Business and Psychology, 17, 563–584.

Bernard, H.R. (2006). Research Methods in Anthropology: Qualitative and

Quantitative Approaches (4th Edition) (pp. 202–209). Lanham, MD: AltaMira

Press.

Chavez, L.R., Hubbell, F.A., McMullin, J.M., Martinez, R.G., Mishra, S.I. (1995).

Structure and Meaning in Models of Breast and Cervical Cancer Risk Factors: A

Comparison of Perceptions among Latinas, Anglo Women, and Physicians.

Medical Anthropology Quarterly, New Series, 9, 40–47.

Chemers, M.M. (2000). Leadership Research and Theory A Functional

Integration. Group Dynamics: Theory and Research, 4, 27–43.

Clowney, K. (2001). New Definition of Leadership. Executive Excellence, 18, 8–10.

Gergen, D. (2001). Character of Leadership. Executive Excellence, 18, 5–7.

Josephson, M.S. (1991). Character: Linchpin of Leadership. Executive Excellence,

16, 2–4.

26

Kirkpatrick, S.A., and Loke, E.A. (1991). Leadership: Do traits matter? The

Executive, 5, 48–60.

Lickona, T. (1991). Educating for Character. New York, NY: Bantam Books.

Oberson, J. (2002). Political Alignment, Leadership and the State in Pashtun

Society. Retrieved Jan 19, 2012 from kit10.info Website:

http://www.kit10.info/Khans%20&%20Warlords%20in%20Pashtun%20Societ

y%20PART%201.pdf

Romney, A.K., Weller, S.C., Batchelder, W.H. (1986). Culture as Consensus: A

Theory of Culture and Informant Accuracy. American Anthropologist, New Series,

88, 313–338.

Shahrani, M.N. (2000). The Taliban Enigma. Person-Centered Politics & Extremism

in Afghanistan. Retrieved Feb12, 2012 from Leiden University, Repository

Website: https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/handle/1887/17446

Weller, S.C., Romney, A.K. (1988). Systematic Data Collection. Newbury Park, CA:

Sage Publications, Inc.

Wilson, H. (2011). Building Leadership for Transition – the challenge of

Afghanistan. Retrieved February 12, 2012, from Hamish Wilson’s Personal Blog:

http://wasafiriconsulting.com/blog/?p=207

27

DISSERTATION COMMITTEE

Terrance Kelly (Chair), Senior Operations Researcher, RAND Corporation

Tkelly@rand.org ext. 4905

Signature Date

Thomas Szayna, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation

Szayna@rand.org ext. 7758

Signature Date

Gery Ryan, Senior Behavioral and Social Science Researcher, RAND Corporation

Gery@rand.org ext. 7925

Signature Date

Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow, Stanford University

F.fukuyama@stanford.edu Tel: 650-723-3214

Signature Date