Crime and Science

Gloria Laycock

Professor of Crime Science

University College London

Crime and Science: Agenda

• Our view of science and its relation to crime control

• Some key facts about crime - revision of earlier presentations

• Why we think crime and science are linked, with some examples

• Brief summary

What is crime science?

An analogy – medical science• Is about keeping us well or making us better when we get ill• Researches specific medical problems, medical treatments

for particular conditions, and the means of averting particular medical problems

• Draws on a range of disciplines

C h e m is try B io lo gy P h ys ics E p id e m io lo gy B io ch e m is try E tc ...

M e d ica l S c ie n ce

What is crime science?• Draws on sociology, psychology, geography, economics,

and criminology, as well as the physical and computer sciences to deliver a reduction in crime

• Researches the problems that lead to crime, identifies the specifics of the problem, how they can be averted

• Similarly draws on a range of disciplines

E n g in e eringD e s ign

G e ne ticsB io ch e m is try

P h ys icsM a te ria ls S c ie n ce

C rim in o lo gyP sych o lo gy

S o c io lo g y e tc

C o m m u n ica tio nsA rt if ic ia l

In te llig en ce

G e og rap hyE co lo g y e tc ...

C rim e S c ie n ce

What is crime science?

• It is a discipline, and not just a technique or methodology, or explained by one single theory

• Its focus:– is on outcomes– the determination to reduce crime– drawing from a wide range of constituent disciplines

• Its methodologies– Are scientific - embracing the standards and values of

the natural sciences

Science is about…..

data

logic

evidence

rationality

testing hypotheses

establishing knowledge

The Role of Science in Crime

• Improving our understanding of crime and its causes

• Making crimes more difficult to commit• Catching offenders more quickly and bringing

them to justice• Thinking scientifically – i.e. testing

hypotheses

Our current dominant response to crime

• Invokes the law and the supporting infrastructure of the Criminal Justice System– Police, courts, prisons, probation/corrections,

community service etc• WHY?

– Because we consistently try to attribute blame when we discuss crime control

– We see crime as a characteristic of the individual– Hoping the Criminal Justice System will successfully

deal with it

If we think about prevention we talk of the ‘causes of crime’ and we look at:

• Deprivation and poverty• Unemployment• Poor education• Poor parenting• Drugs and alcohol

And try to tackle these to address the crime problem

• The most significant and universal cause of crime

is opportunity

Nick Tilley’s thought experiment:

• If there were no opportunities to commit, would there still be crime?– Can the same be said for the other causes?– E.g. If there was no poverty, would there still be crime?

In Summary so far:

• Lots of people offend,– but do not do it for that long– what they do is not that serious

• We can not rely upon the supporting infrastructure of the CJS to control and reduce crime– CJS does have a vital role

• making clear the boundaries of acceptable and unacceptable behaviour

• Delivering retribution, justice and protection– But is not sufficient as a method for controlling and reducing crime

• The risk factors can contribute to crime, but they can be very hard and less immediate to change, and in a civilised society we should be doing our best on these anyway

So what do we need to do instead to reduce crime?

• Need to behave in a more objective and scientific manner

• We need to prevent as many offences as possible in the first place

• We need to catch offenders more effectively and more reliably, and deal with them efficiently once caught

• We need to avoid overestimating the importance of individuals character traits and not underestimate the importance of situation and context

Some examples of approaching crime in this way:

• Testing hypotheses• Using theory

Testing hypotheses: place and problem solving analysis

Camden, London• Problem analysis of vehicle crime Camden

“We think it relates mainly to local residents having their cars stolen at night”(The Police)

• Analysis involves breaking the problem

apart and exploring the specifics of the

crime problem• We have a series of questions that we can

turn into hypothesesTheft of vehicles by time of day (aoristic trend)

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Theft of vehicles by time of the day

VictimsTheft of vehicles

Camden victims (58%) Non-Camden victims (42%)

Type of vehicles stolen

Vehicle type description Offences %

Hatchback 1258 21.7%

Saloon 1433 24.7%

Estate 220 3.8%

People carrier 45 0.8%

Convertible 120 2.1%

Sports 42 0.7%

4 X 4's 4 0.1%

Moped or scooter 1494 25.8%

Motor cycle 755 13.0%

Motor caravan 11 0.2%

Van 274 4.7%

Other 50 0.9%

Not known 23 0.4%

Cars

Motorbikes Scooters and mopeds

Place: space and timeTheft of vehicles by time of day (aoristic trend)

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Theft of vehicles by time of the day

Clerkenwell hotspotVehicle type Camden Clerkenwell (n) Clerkenwell(%)

Car 51% 41 18%

Sports or convertible 3% 5 2%

Scooter or moped 26% 95 42%

Motor cycle 13% 70 31%

Van 5% 3 1%

Other 2.0% 10 4%

Not known 0.5% 0 0%

USING THEORY: Routine Activity Theory

Crime is the product of the routine activities of everyday life. This is so for both offenders and victims.

There are three necessary conditions for most crime – a suitable victim, a motivated offender and the absence of a capable guardian.

Routine Activity Theory

CRIMELikely offenders Suitable targets

Capable guardians

Personal Robbery Trend in a London Borough

Scanning

• Ealing’s robbery problems can be divided into six principal but overlapping categories:– Youth offending – Pedal cycle offending – Offending involving drink – Knife enabled offending – Offending on buses

335 more victims aged 16 years and under in 2006 than 2005 – an increase of 84.4%

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2003 2004 2005 2006

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Robbery victims by age

16 years and under

17 - 21 years

22 - 29 years

30 - 39 years

40 - 49 years

50 + years

Not stated

Personal Robbery Victim Trend

Time of Offending

Time of offending is very different for youths and adults – this would appear to support the hypothesis that they are two distinct crime problems

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Chart showing time of robbery offence featuring victims aged 16 and under and victims aged 17 and over, Jan- Dec 2006

16 and Under 17 and Over Total

Location of Offending

16 and Unders hotspot 17 and Overs hotspot

Ealing Broadway is of more concern for young victims than for older victims – it is a considerable transport hub.The Park Royal Leisure Centre is of greater concern for younger victims. East Acton, West Ealing and Acton High street are of greater concern for over-17s.

Geography of Offences

The ‘routine activities’ of school aged children are different during the week compared to weekends.

Routine activity theory: a crime occurs when a likely offender and vulnerable victim are together in the absence of a capable guardian

Weekday v Weekend Offences

Map comparing the locations of personal robbery offences on victims aged 16 years and under during the week and at the weekends

Secondary School

Temporal Analysis

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Times of Personal Robbery Offending; victims 16 years and under

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Summary

I have:• described crime science and suggested that it is a useful

way to approach the control of crime• argued that to control crime we need to pay attention to

the immediate situation and the opportunity structures that support it

• given two examples of approaching crime in this way• Hope I have persuaded you that this approach has lots to

offer!

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