CRedKeith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences, UEA

CIWEM - 8th August 2006

CRed The Community Carbon Reduction Project

Hard Choices Ahead: Renewable Energy Options

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

20% reduction in 24 years20031979

CRed

Summer ice coverage of Artic Polar Region

NASA satellite imagery

2/14

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

CRed

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Price of Electricity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 13 25

(p p

er k

Wh)

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

3/14

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

4/14

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Energy Crops 20% ? available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

5/14

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then

6/14

Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project: Involving the Community

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

7/14

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

8/14

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

9/14

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in Norfolk

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

10/14

Raising Awareness

• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles11/14

Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can you do collectively as an Organisation?

Visit the CRed WEB Site

Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future

saving energy

Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness

Promoting appropriate renewable energy

www.cred-uk.org

12/14

Today we shared a car from Norwich – saved 32.95 kgCould have used a washing machine 64 timesA low energy light bulb on continuously for 200 days

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

Otherwise Nuclear ??? (but accessible uranium is limited)

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. >>

Conclusions

13/14

WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org

This presentation will be available from tomorrow: follow Academic Resources link

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."