1 CRed Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre...

1CRedKeith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences, UEA

Keith Tovey

Park Lane Methodist Church 21st May 2006

Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind?Hard Choices Ahead – the CRED Project

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Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasawww.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years20031979

CRed

The loss of ice cover reduces amount of heat reflected and hence more warming.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

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(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

CRed

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Price of Electricity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 13 25

(p p

er k

Wh)

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableTransport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

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0%

10%20%

30%40%

50%

60%70%

80%90%

100%N

eth

erl

an

ds

De

nm

ark

Be

lgiu

m

Sw

ed

en

Ge

rma

ny

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Au

stri

a

Fra

nce

Sp

ain

Italy

Fin

lan

d

Ire

lan

d

UK

Po

rtu

ga

l

Gre

eceLandfill

Incineration

Recycle

Waste could provide up to 15% of our energy needs

Or should it go to Landfill?

Is it better to recycle?

How is UK doing compared to other EU Countries?

But is incineration the best route – are there alternatives?

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Process descriptionProcess description

WASTE cyclonicseparator

particulates >10 microns

1250°C

bypassdamper

Pyrolysis

Turbine

Electricity

Boiler

Stack

bottom ash

carbon recycling

Gasification OxidationEnergy

RecoveryFlue GasClean Up

steam

air

Bag Filter

SodiumBicarbonate

Ammonia

DeNOxCatalyst

Heat

Condenser

air

Fuel(warm-up

only)

Feed Preparation

materials recovery and recycling

compacting air lock

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The size of such plants is small compared to incinerators.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream


4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream


4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

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50

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

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Electricity Options for the FutureLow Growth Scenario

Capped at 420 TWh• 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 68 % increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002• Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025• Mix option: 11% increase in gas

consumption (cf 2002)

High Growth Scenario

Business as Usual• 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 257% increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

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A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark.

Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines.

Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption

We must not get drawn into a single issue debate

– a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed.

Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation

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Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient

Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)

Oxford English Dictionary

Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind

Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%

Sizewell B achieves 32%

A car engine achieve 30% at best

Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths

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Are those who say that Wind Turbines are inefficient really meaning that they have a low load factor.

UK wind turbines have a much higher load factor than German, Danish and Spanish because of much higher wind speeds

27% but likely to increase with offshore turbines

A car driven 10 000 miles a year has a load factor of 1 – 3%

Less than one tenth of a wind turbine

Definition: production (or consumption) as a proportion of rated output (consumption).


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• Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations.

• the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.

• in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines.

•Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year

•Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

•British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed

Wind Energy: The Issues

Wind Turbines kill birds

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• Wind Turbines are beautiful!

» Wind Turbines are Ugly!

• What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?.

• Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia

• The North Norfolk Coal Field• Increased Famine• 30 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025• Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in Norfolk

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness

• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 80+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

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• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

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Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich

• Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.

• Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh

• North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh

• Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh

• Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh

• A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 52% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 18% of total demand)

• Would save ~ 55 000 to 60 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 32 000 hot air balloons each year.

• The alternative:

• Persuade 24 000 motorists never to drive the car again

• Or 240 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

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• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

Conclusions

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Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can you do collectively as a Community?

Visit the CRed WEB Site Sign a pledge to• combat global warming

• help secure a sustainable environment for our children

• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future

saving energyAdopting technical solutionsPromoting AwarenessPromoting appropriate renewable energy

www.cred-uk.org

http://www.cred-uk.org/

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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org

This presentation will be available on WEB from tomorrow: >follow Academic Resources Link

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

This is a challeneg for Christians and people worldwide

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

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1 CRed Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre...

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