Corine land cover, Land accounts and scenario development An introduction Jean-Louis Weber & Ferràn...

Corine land cover, Land accounts and scenario development

An introduction

Jean-Louis Weber & Ferràn Paramo

26 February 2003

Why accounting for Land?

• Produce synthetic assessments, keeping track of the geographic differences

• Analyse the relation between the changes of land cover and land use, in physical and monetary terms

and contribute to the development of scenarios…

First, avoiding this…

Net intensification of land use by Sea Catchments

Net intensification of land use by Country

Net intensification of land use by Biogeographic regions Net intensification of land use by Watershed

and this…

Changes in Tourism intensity, 1980-85 to 1990-95, by NUTS2

The concept of stock & flow accounts

Stock at

Time 1

Stock at

Time 2

Do gains compensate for losses? Do gains compensate for losses?

Stock at

Time 1

Stock at

Time 2

Do gains compensate for losses? Do gains compensate for losses?

Which are the processes in question?

Does quality of stock carried over change?

Gains

Losses

The aggregation issue

• From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types

• From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover

From many land cover units to regions & to landscape types

CLC 1990

Landscape Types of Europe used for LEAC

wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, dominant character

Landscape Types of the « 4 countries » used for LEAC, Upland vs Lowland

Dominant landscape type of the European coast

Dominant landscape type of the European coast

8%

12%

11%

21%7%

21%

20%

Urban dense areas

Dirspersed urban areas

Broad pattern intensive agriculture

Composite rural landscape

Forested landscape

Open semi-natural or natural landscape

Landscape with no dominance

Land Accounting Units/ Coastal Units

From many land cover changes to flows of consumption of cover and formation of cover

CORRESPONDANCE BETWEEN LAND COVER CHANGES (CLC LEVEL 3) AND THE LAND COVER FLOWS

132 133 141 142 211 212 213 221 222 223

Dump sites Construction

sites Green urban

areas

Sport and leisure

facilities

Non-irrigated arable land

Permanently irrigated land

Rice fields Vineyards Fruit trees and berry

plantations Olive groves

243 Land principally occupied by agriculture w ith significant areas of natural vegetation

Extension of dumpsites

ConstructionDevelopment of green urban areas

Extension of sport and leisure facilities

Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture






244 Agro-forestry areasExtension of dumpsites



Intensif ication of agriculture



Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture



311 Broad-leaved forestExtension of dumpsites



Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture






312 Coniferous forestExtension of dumpsites









313 Mixed forestExtension of dumpsites









321 Natural grasslandExtension of dumpsites









322 Moors and heathlandExtension of dumpsites









Nomenclature of Land Cover Flows (Level 1)

LCF1 Urban land management

LCF2 Urban sprawl

LCF3 Extension of economic sites and infrastructures

LCF4 Agricultural rotation and intensification

LCF5 Conversion of land to agriculture

LCF6 Forests creation and management

LCF7 Water body creation and management

LCF8 Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes

Detailed Nomenclatures of Land Cover Flows 1/3

LCF1 Urban land managementLCF11 Urban development/ infillingLCF12 Developed land recyclingLCF13 Development of green urban areas

LCF2 Urban sprawlLCF21 Urban continuous sprawlLCF22 Urban diffuse sprawl

LCF3 Extension of economic sites and infrastructuresLCF31 Extension of industrial & commercial sitesLCF32 Extension of transport networksLCF33 Extension of harboursLCF34 Extension of airportsLCF35 Extension of mines and quarrying areasLCF36 Extension of dumpsitesLCF37 ConstructionLCF38 Extension of sport and leisure facilities


• LCF4 Agricultural rotation and intensification

LCF41 Recent extension of pasture, fallow land, set aside

LCF42 Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees over arable & pasture

LCF43 Rotation of annual crops

LCF44 Rotation of permanent crops

LCF45 Intensification of agriculture

• LCF5 Conversion of land to agriculture

LCF51 Intensive conversion of forest to agriculture

LCF52 Intensive conversion of marginal land to agriculture

LCF53 Diffuse conversion of forest to agriculture

LCF54 Diffuse conversion of marginal land to agriculture

LCF55 Conversion of wetlands to agriculture

LCF56 Conversion of developed areas to agriculture


LCF6 Forests creation and managementLCF61 Forests creationLCF62 Forests rotationLCF63 Recent felling and transition

LCF7 Water body creation and managementLCF71 Water body creationLCF72 Water body management

LCF8 Changes of land cover due to natural and multiple causes

LCF81 Semi-natural creation LCF82 Semi-natural rotation

LCF83 Farmland abandonment without significant woodland creation

LCF84 Farmland abandonment with woodland creationLCF85 Other land abandonment (other than farmland)LCF86 Forests and shrubs firesLCF87 Coastal erosionLCF88 Impacts of storms, floods…LCF89 Other changes and unknown

Example of basic LEAC

Land cover of the European coast, 1990

Coastal Land Cover 1990

Artif icial areas6%

Arable Land+Permanent

crops28%

Pasture + Heterogeneous

agricultural areas27%

Forests11%

Shrub and other natural & semi-natural areas

18%

Wetlands6%

Water4%

Urban extension compared to Farmland (Net Change), European coast, 1975-1990, hectares

Artif icial surfaces

Arable Land+Permanent CropsPasture+Mixed agricultural areas-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

Urban extension compared to Farmland (Net Change), European coast, 1975-1990, ha

Main land cover flows on European coast, 1975-1990 - hectares

Main land cover flows on European coast, 1975-1990 - ha

191860

103151

323569

160692

190425

415126

203852

121485

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000

Coastal erosion

Farmland abandonment

Recent extension of pasture, fallowland, set aside

Forests creation

Conversion of marginal land toagriculture

Intensification of agriculture

Planting of vineyards, fruit and olivetrees over arable & pasture

Urban sprawl+Extension of economicsites and infrastructures

Urban extension 1975-1990 on the European coast, hectares

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Urban extension 1975-1990 on the European coast, ha

Urban continuous spraw l

Extension of economic sites and infrastructures

Urban diffuse spraw l

Extension & intensification of agriculture on the European coast, 1975-90, hectares

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Extension & intensification of agriculture on European coast, 1975-90, ha

Planting of vineyards, fruit and olive trees overarable & pasture

Conversion of land to agriculture

Intensification of agriculture

Trends in marginal land on European coast,1975-1990, hectares

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Urban dense areas

Dirspersed urban areas

Broad pattern intensive agriculture

Composite rural landscape

Forested landscape

Open semi-natural or naturallandscape

Landscape with no dominance

Trends in marginal land on European coast,1975-90, ha

Farmland abandonment Conversion of marginal land to agriculture

Examples of indicators calculated from Land Accounts, maps

(a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures

(b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture

(c) Farmland abandonment

(d) Net Intensification of Land Use = (a)+(b)- (c)

N.B. Indicators can be computed by Land Units, by Regions (NUTS, Basins) or/and by Landscape Types

(a) Urban sprawl + Extension of infrastructures, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

(b) Intensification of Agriculture + Conversion of land to Agriculture,

European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

(c) Farmland abandonment, European coast, 1975-1990, NUTS3

+

- =

(d) Net Intensification of Land Use,

European coast, 1975-90, NUTS3

Possible scenario analysis based on CLC and LEAC

1. Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenario: CAP, TEN/TINA, Urban Polycentric development (ESPON/CRPM) … and calculate impact (e.g. with a buffer)

2. Overlay of CORILIS with the same and calculate impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer

3. Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions between classes (impacts by landscape types)

4. Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment)

5. Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock & Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.

e.g. Assessment of the strategic impact of the TEN by the

EEA

Fragmentation of regions which boundaries are existing major transport networks. Value based on the size weighted by land cover (CLC 3, 4 & 5) and by the presence of protected areas

Overlay of CLC with existing land use scenarios

Scenarios to be overlaid to

CLC or CORILIS

Methodology of assessment of the competitiveness/attractiveness of the peripheral regions

Current assessment

Scenario 1: « straight-line development »

Scenario 2: polycentric

development

Questions:

What about the environment?

Is one scenario better than the other?

Why? Which impacts?

Overlay of CORILIS with the same scenarios as before, and calculate

impact on the potentials = no need of a buffer, direct

calculations…

Intensity of land cover in and in the surroundings of Regional ParksTendances dans le voisinage (TdV)

VercorsQueyras

Luberon

Chartreuse

Armorique

Ballons des Vosges

Nord-Pas-de-Calais

Brenne

Brière

BrotonneMarais du Cotentin et du Bessin

Camargue

Corse

Foret d'Orient

Grands Causses

Haut-Jura

Haut-Languedoc

Haute vallée de la Chevreuse

Landes de Gascogne

Livradois-Forez

LorraineMontagne de Reims

Morvan

Normandie-Maine

PilatVolcans d'Auvergne

Vosges du NordVexin

Massif des Bauges

Loire-Anjou-Touraine

Verdon

Perche

Perigord-Limousin

AvesnoisScarpe-Escaut

SSoouurrccee :: UUEE –– IIffeenn // CCOORRIINNEE LLaanndd ccoovveerr vv..11 11999966 –– MMNNHHNN [[IIEEGGBB –– SSPPNN]] 11999988 -- LLiissssaaggee àà 2200 kkiilloommèèttrreess

Forêt

67 - 9150 - 6737 - 5025 - 37

Semi naturel

58 - 8932 - 5816 - 328 - 16

Artificiel

13 - 416 - 135 - 63 - 5

Grandes cultures

52 - 8439 - 5231 - 3926 - 31

Cultures diverses

69 - 9755 - 6944 - 5535 - 44

CORILIS

Landscape diversity indices based on CLC/CORILIS

Implement coefficients on CORILIS and assess the impacts on the transitions

between classes (impacts by landscape types)

Normalised index Mixed Agriculture/ Forests

Indice normaliséCult. variées / Forêt

0,8 - 10,6 - 0,80,4 - 0,60,2 - 0,40,1 - 0,20 - 0,1

-0,1 - 0-0,2 - -0,1-0,4 - -0,2-0,6 - -0,4-0,8 - -0,6-1 - -0,8

Assess zones at risk of… by physical modelling of

geographic characteristics (e.g. farmland abandonment)

Assessment of the risk of Farmland abandonment in Franche-Comté

The risk is high when:

CLC class is 243 & 244

+ Land close to a forest

+ Land is on a slope

+ Land far from a main road

Combine « local » models with the LEAC infrastructure (Landscape types, Stock &

Flow accounts), in order to have a basis for extrpolation.

Corine land cover, Land accounts and scenario development An introduction Jean-Louis Weber & Ferràn...

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