A detailed scientific analysis of the impact of land use change on water resource g

provision to Bogotá D.C. and implications for the development of PES schemes

Guavio catchmentChingaza

for the development of PES schemes

GuavioGolillas

catchmentChingazaParkBogotá

CityChingazaPark

SumapazPark

Leonardo Sáenz and Mark MulliganLeonardo Sáenz and Mark MulliganEnvironmental Monitoring, Modelling and

Management Group

DescriptionDescription

1. KCL objectives

2. USE of FIESTA model and main datasets 3. Implementation of other FIESTA model3. Implementation of other FIESTA model

components 4 M i h d l i l fi di4. Main hydrological findings

5. Main policy implications5. Main policy implications

6. Main Conclusions

KCL objectivesKCL objectives

1. Produce a baseline scenario of water resources provision to dams from forests pand paramos surrounding Bogotá D.C.

2 E i i l h d l i l b fi f2. Estimate potential hydrological benefits of forest and paramo conservation through PES h f diff t i fPES schemes for different scenarios of land cover change to the year 2050.

2. Estimate potential economic effects of PES conservation on water provision andPES conservation on water provision and hydroelectric power generation.

FIESTA Delivery ModelFIESTA Delivery ModelFIESTA is the most sophisticated model of mountain hydrologyFIESTA is the most sophisticated model of mountain hydrology to help understand the magnitude of fog contributions to the water balance at national and regional scales (Mulligan andwater balance at national and regional scales (Mulligan and Burke 2005).

FIESTA models: With appropriate soilsFIESTA models:* fog interception* evaporation

With appropriate soils data it also models:* soil hydrologyp

* water balance* Accumulated water

b l ( ff)

y gy* estimates sedimentation

yields. balance (runoff).

FIESTA is applicable elsewhere with appropriate data processing anFIESTA is applicable elsewhere with appropriate data processing anuses globally available datasets and free software.

FIESTA implementation datasetsFIESTA implementation - datasets

- Humidity (%)- Temperature (°C)

Wind speed (m s 1)N

- Wind speed (m s-1)- Wind direction. - Precipitation (mm)

Ai ( b) d- Air pressure (mb) and - Cloud frequency (%).- Potential solar radiation

Baseline1977Baseline2000

(W m-2).- Elevation (m).

ParamoForestCropsBare soil

Land Cover ClassesParamoForestCropsBare soil

Land Cover ClassesBaseline1977

- Land cover: % of tree cover (MODIS VCF)

- Roads and river streams.Creation of Land Cover Change scenarios. Forest and paramo resources to the yearsRoads and river streams. Forest and paramo resources to the years

1977 and 2000 surrounding Bogotá D.C.Derived from Landsat and MODIS datasets

FIESTA scenarios – year 2050

N PES scenario:Forest andForest and

paramo loss avoided within the

Chingaza parkChingaza park

NO PES scenario:Forest and

paramo loss Allowed within the

79,000 0 79,00039,500 Kilometers11,000 0 11,0005,500 Kilometers

Chingaza park atCurrent rates

PES and NOPES scenarios, detail of natural cover loss in the Chingaza National Park.

79,000 0 79,00039,500 Kilometers11,000 0 11,0005,500 Kilometers

FIESTA Components: Paramo

a

M d lli f t t t ti dModelling of paramo water storage, retention and contribution to runoff

FIESTA Components: dam filling

Guavio dam

Water storage and discharge hydraulic head andWater storage and discharge, hydraulic head, and hydroelectric generation potential.

FIESTA and Dams databaseFIESTA and Dams database

Main dams surrounding Bogotá D.C.

Dams database - KCL effort to enhance the knowledge of hydrological impacts from land cover and climate change upon highly engineered human infrastructure

Main hydrological findingsMain hydrological findingsCloud forest hydrology and implications to damsCloud forest hydrology and implications to dams

N

Tota Tota

NeusaCopa

NeusaCopa

Sisga

Tomine

NeusaSisga

Tomine

Neusa

Tomine

Regadera

Chingaza lagoon

Golillas

Guavio

ChivorRegadera

Chingaza lagoon

Golillas

Guavio

Chivor

PradoChingaza lagoon

PradoChingaza lagoon

Overall: Fog inputs are of major importance in dry areas to the north of the Bogotá region and in the western fringes towards thenorth of the Bogotá region and in the western fringes towards the Magdalena basin, where Tota lake and Copa, Sisga, Tomine, Chivor and Prado dams receive important seasonal fog inputs.

fi diMain hydrological findingsDeforestation impacts on fog inputs and implications to dams

a. Overall: Fog inputs are already minor in most of the flat areas of the high Bogotá sabana since most of the cloud forest resources have already been converted to other land uses but not so in thehave already been converted to other land uses, but not so in the steep slopes surrounding Chingaza and Sumapaz parks.

b D f t ti h l d t ti ll i d fl f tb. Deforestation has already potentially increased flows for most of the dams in the region.

c. However, further deforestation threatens the seasonal regulation of base flows to dams especially in the driest areas, for Copa, Tomine, Sisga and Chivor dams, where fog inputs are an p , , g , g pimportant proportion of seasonal water balances.

fi diMain hydrological findings

Paramo loss and implications to dams

a. Overall: Climatic and topographical conditions and high waterbalances with regard to the high Bogotá sabana make paramobalances with regard to the high Bogotá sabana make paramoareas essential to sustained water supplies to Bogotá City.

b. The importance of paramo conservation is with respect tomaintaining water quality and regulation. Much research isneeded to better understand the generation of the runoffgphenomenon in undisturbed and intervened paramocatchments.

M i li i li tiMain policy implications

Implications to PES

a. In dry areas to the north and south west Bogotá D.C surrounding Totalake and Sisga, Copa, Chivor and Prado dams, deforestation and thusg , p , ,the reduction in fog interception affects river flows seasonally.

b In paramo catchments surrounding areas of Chingaza lake Golillasb. In paramo catchments surrounding areas of Chingaza lake, GolillasGuavio and regadera dams, where flows are not enhanced bydeforestation and could even reduce with increased evapo-transpiration when paramo is converted to pasture or crops,transpiration when paramo is converted to pasture or crops,conservation measurements are essential to maintain regular flowregimes and water quality downstream.

M i li i li tiMain policy implications

Implications to PES

a. In highly engineered systems any change in flows exciding designspecifications is bad. Therefore, PES schemes could potentiallymaintain the safety of operation of hydraulic infrastructure in Golillasy yand Guavio dams.

b E i i t f i f t t f il d t i d k flb. Economic impact of infrastructure failure due to increased peak flowshas yet to be estimated in the surrounding areas of Bogotá D.C.

M i li i li tiMain policy implications

Implications to PES - Economic Estimates a Implementation of PES schemes preventing the loss of paramo in thea. Implementation of PES schemes preventing the loss of paramo in the

Chingaza park could potentially maintain up to 0.9% of hydropowergeneration of the Guavio dam to the year 2050 (up to about 3.2 USDmillion year-1)million year 1).

b. PES implementation in the Chingaza park could potentially conserveup to 3 8% of water inputs to Golillas dam from paramo conservationup to 3.8% of water inputs to Golillas dam from paramo conservationto the year 2050 (up to about 6.2 USD million year-1).

c. Further enhancements of the paramo protected area in Chingazawould help maintain seasonal water resources that would otherwisebe lost if paramo loss takes place at the same rates of today.

Conclusionsa. Results from paramo conservation are encouraging since

conservation efforts through PES schemes could potentially representg p y ppositive economic impacts

b. Study outcomes must now be validated and compared withinformation from respective relevant drinking water, hydroelectric andenvironmental organizations and understood within the economiccontext of the provision of these services in the region to support and

t ti l PES h i l t ti di B tá D Cpotential PES schemes implementation surrounding Bogotá D.C.

c. Conservation of cloud forest and paramo resources should be tackledpnot only considering potential benefits of water quantity but of waterquality and flood mitigation specially in the eastern Andes, which areessential to the efficient, economic and safe operation of dams in thepregion.