Conferência Deutsche Bank – Nova York

28
Deutsche Bank Conference Deutsche Bank Conference New York, September 05 & 06, 2007

Transcript of Conferência Deutsche Bank – Nova York

Page 1: Conferência Deutsche Bank – Nova York

Deutsche Bank ConferenceDeutsche Bank Conference

New York, September 05 & 06, 2007

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Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of the

Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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Low OperatingCosts

Low OperatingCosts

UndisputableBetter ServiceUndisputableBetter Service

CompetitivePrices

CompetitivePrices

Sustainable Strategyto Maintain Market

Leadershipand Profitability

TAM is a low cost company with better service at competitive prices

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Previousperiod

Currentperiod

J FM AM J J A SOND J FM AM J J A SOND J FM AM J J A SOND J FMAM J J8085

9095

100

105110115

120125

130

Domestic Market - Variation

2004

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth200612%

The domestic market growth still strong in 2007, reaching 13% in the first 7 months of the year

Accum. market growth200519%

Accum. market growth200412%

Accum. market growth200713%

200720062005

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33,0%35,8%

47,8% 49,3%43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan - Jul

TAM 50,6%

GOL 36,9%

BRA 4,1%

Varig 2,7%

Other 5,6%

Domestic Market Share - July/07

We have been domestic market leaders since 2003, ending July with 49,3%

Domestic Market Share - July/07

Domestic Market Share (RPK’s)Domestic Market Share (RPK’s)

Source: ANAC

TAM 49,6%

GOL 40,1%

BRA 2,7%

Varig 3,8%

Other 3,7%

Domestic Market Share – 2Q07Domestic Market Share – 2Q07

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Previousperiod

Market

TAM

J F MA M J J AS OND J FMA M J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A SOND J FMA M J J40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous year)

Source: ANAC

The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recuperating

Accum. market growth20048%

Accum. market growth20057%

Accum. market

decrease 2006 30%

Accum. marketdecrease 2007

24%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 200775%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum. TAM 200430%

2004 20072005 2006

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12,00% 14,3%

37,3%

65,6%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan - Jul

TAM 64,3%

GOL 15,6%

Varig 14,2%

Other 5,8%

International Market Share– July/07International Market Share– July/07

International Market ShareInternational Market Share

Since July 2006, we are international market leaders among the Brazilian companies

Source: ANAC

TAM 70,8%

Varig10,7%

GOL 13,3%

Other5,2%

International Market Share – 2Q07International Market Share – 2Q07

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In the past 4 years, we have improved every operational metric…

No. take-offs (K)

Load Factor- LF Dom- LF Int

Market Share Dom

MS/CS Domestic

Aircraft Utilization(block hrs/day)- Narrow bodies- Wide bodies

20032003

76147

61%58%71%33%

0.97

7.6

5.87.3

TAM S.A. 20042004

76151

66%64%71%36%

0.98

9.0

6.912.6

20052005

81210

71%70%73%44%

1.00

11.4

10.214.2

20062006

92245

74%73%76%48%

1.02

12.7

12.415.1

No. operating aircraft

20022002

102219

55%53%61%35%

0.94

9.5

9.210.0

1H071H07

101130

71%71%70%49%

1.03

12.8

12.415.7

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…resulting in an outstanding improvement in our financial metrics

Net revenues

EBITDAR

% EBITDAR

EBIT

% EBIT

Net Income

% NetIncome

20022002

3,429

475

13.9%

(236)

-6.9%

(606)

-17.7%

20032003

3,667

775

21.1%

(32)

-0.9%

174

4.7%

20042004

4,520

1,038

23.0%

294

6.5%

342

7.6%

20052005

5,649

1,140

20.2%

426

7.5%

187

3.3%

20062006

7,345

1,817

24.7%

996

13.6%

556

7.6%

BR GAAP 1H071H07

3,322

593

15.6%

120

3.2%

31

0.8%

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154

113

329

1,228

156

196

531

1,170

2Q06 2Q07

1,824

2,054

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Gross Revenues (R$ M)

Dom.Pax

Int.Pax

CargoOther

13%

Domestic passenger revenue decreased of 5%

RPK growth 21%

ASK growth 26%

International passenger revenue growth 61%

RPK growth 83%

ASK growth 98%

Cargo revenue growth 74%

Other revenue growth 2%

Total revenue grew 13%...

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2Q062Q06

21.5

20.6

74.5

29.1

15.3

74.9

20.4

9.4

1Q071Q07

16.7

14.5

69.4

22.0

14.1

71.3

19.8

9.7

2Q072Q07

16.8

15.3

71.9

22.3

12.3

69.1

17.8

9.3

2Q06 vs 2Q07

2Q06 vs 2Q07

-21.8%

-26.0%

-2.6 p.p.

-23.6%

-19.6%

-5.8 p.p.

-12.7%

-1.9%

1Q07 vs 2Q07

1Q07 vs 2Q07

0.5%

4.9%

2.5 p.p.

1.1%

-12.6%

-2.2 p.p.

-9.9%

-4.0%

…while total RASK decreased 21.8%, mainly due to the decrease in the domestic yields

RASK Total1

RASK Scheduled Domestic2

LF Scheduled Domestic

Yield ScheduledDomestic3

RASK Scheduled International2

LF ScheduledInternational

Yield ScheduledInternational3 (em R$)Yield ScheduledInternational3 (em USD)

1 Includes charter, cargo and Other revenues, net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

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CASKex-fuel

1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07

17.4318.69 18.43

16.9815.92 16.52

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASK (BR GAAP - R$ cents)

2Q06 vs 2Q07

-10.8%

-11.6%

Our CASK decreased 11.6% compared to 2Q06

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RASKCASK

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q07 2Q0715

20

25

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP

EBITMargin

Spread

-7.1%

-1.1

-0.9%

-0.2

6.5%

1.4

7.5%

1.5

13.6%

2.8

4.8%

0.9

1.7%

0.3

The decline in CASK was not enough to compensate the RASK, leading to a reduction of our spread…

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2Q06 2Q07

436

252

0

100

200

300

400

500

EBITDAR(BR GAAP - R$ M)

2Q06 2Q07

225

33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EBIT(BR GAAP - R$ M)

Margin over Net Revenue

2Q06 2Q07

97

-29

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

Net Income(BR GAAP - R$ M)

-42%

-85%

-129%

25%

13%13%

2%

-1%

6%

…reducing our margins in BR GAAP…

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2Q06 2Q07

400

239

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR(US GAAP - R$ M)

2Q06 2Q07

242

69

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EBIT(US GAAP - R$ M)

23%

14%

3%

12%

2Q06 2Q07

146

69

0

40

80

120

160

200

Net Income(US GAAP - R$ M)

4%

-40%

8%

...and US GAAP

Margin over Net Revenue

-53%-72%

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

-28.6

145.8

-50.3

2.3 69.2

-50

0

50

100

150

Net Profit Reconciliationto US GAAP 40 aircrafts are reclassified as

capital leases as per SFAS nº 1340 aircrafts are reclassified as

capital leases as per SFAS nº 13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

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2Q06 2Q07

0.64

-0.19

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

2Q06 2Q07

0.97

0.53

Earnings per shareUS GAAP (R$)

Our earnings per share decreased

-130%

-45%

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Even with the appreciation of the Real, revenues in foreign currencies increased proportionally

22%

78%

33%

67%

34%

66%

2Q06 1Q07 2Q07

100% 100% 100%

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenues(Passenger + Cargo)

DomesticInternational

Dollarexchangerate

R$ 2.164 R$ 2.050 R$ 1.926

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

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Since our second public share offer, our share had an increase in valuation of 25%

Accumulated variation since March 10, 2006

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

10-mar-06 31-jul-07

TAMM4 IBOVESPA DOW JONES ADR TAM

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Flight 3054

Focus on providing full support to victims’ families, authorities and employees

Family Assistance

Activation of a company family assistance program

Deployment of specialized teams to sites where assistance is needed

Establishment of two offices, jointly with Unibanco AIG, in São Paulo and Porto Alegre, for individual services to family members to handle compensation issues

Establishment of a website for the exclusive use and safe access by family members

Disclosure of information to the public

Full cooperation with regulatory and investigative authorities

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Structure of legal authorities involved in the industry

AIR FORCECOMMAND

DECEAAIR TRAFFIC/ SPACE

CONTROLCivil & Military Aircraft

NAVYCOMMAND

ARMYCOMMAND

CENIPAAccident Investigation and Prevention Board

Air Traffic Control

Air Traffic Control

A&I Investigation

A&I Investigation

National Civil Aviation Agency

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF DEFENSEDEFENSE

PRESIDENTPRESIDENT

CONACNational Civil

Aviation Council

DesignManufacturing

OperationsMaintenance

LicensingAirportsRegister

FacilitationSecurity

Air ServicesIntl. Air Navigation

ErgonomicsHuman Factors

DesignManufacturing

OperationsMaintenance

LicensingAirportsRegister

FacilitationSecurity

Air ServicesIntl. Air Navigation

ErgonomicsHuman Factors

INFRAERO

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CONAC announced guidelines for future implementation (1/2)

Resolution no. 6, dated July 20, 2007, states that:By ANAC

ANAC´s supervisory duties will be enhanced in order to assureunrestricted support to the victim´s family members

In 60 days, the take-off and landing rights at Congonhas will bereviewed, restricting them to point-to-point, direct flights

New international flights will be allocated outside the São Paulo terminal (Guarulhos and Congonhas)

No charter flights are allowed out of Congonhas

A permanent contingency plan for aircraft and crew must beestablished

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CONAC announced guidelines for future implementation (2/2)

By ANAC and Air Force Command

Further restrict the use of Congonhas for General Aviation purposes

In 90 days, submit a study on possible locations for a new aiport site in São Paulo

By Infraero

In 90 days, submit a study for expansion and redesigning of airports in São Paulo

Seek clearance from the courts for spaces currently occupied bycompaniese under bankrupcy or reorganization

Promptly adopt redistribution of spaces to permit accomodation of a larger number of passengers at Guarulhos

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Average domestic market share above 50%Average domestic load factor at approximately 70%Aircraft utilization per day (block hour) higher than 13 hoursReduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoyOpportunity in the international market

Third frequency to ParisInauguration of two new international long haul frequencies

Market demand growth from 10% to 15% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2007Guidance 2007

TAMTAM

MarketMarket12.6%*

1S07

Our expectations for 2007, disclosed in December 2006, are still the same

1S07

• Since January• Milan (March),

Frankfurt and Madrid (December)

49.3%*

72.1%*12.8

9.2%

* Accumulated from January to July

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...maintaining our fleet plan

3

15

87

6

4

16

98

4

20

101

4

20

107

6

20

110

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

111118

125131

136

0

50

100

150

Fleet Plan

F100

Airbusnarrow-body

Airbuswide-body

MD11B777

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Increased block hoursInsourcing of stationsIncreased direct website sales (110% increase 1S07 vs 1S06)Ongoing sourcing improvementsOptimized GDS costsIncreased use of technology

New check-in procedures, including higher use of self check-in totems and web check-in

Additional staff for directing passengers

Zone boarding

Revised onboard services

New international call center

Increased “dispatchability”with Operational Centre

Superior Customer Service

Superior Customer Service Increase RevenuesIncrease Revenues Reduce CostsReduce Costs

We continue to pursue our strategy, already with strong deliveries in 2007

Increase in international revenues (70% increase with a 88% ASK increase, in 1S07 vs 1S06)

Increase in international cargo (170% increase 1S07 vs 1S06)

Initial development of new customer base with popularized methods of payment

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TAM: continuing to grow, with solid fundamentals

Focus on profitability and cost reduction

Sustainable competitive advantage

Experienced management team

delivering solid results

“Best in Class” service and brand recognition

Undisputed leader in the domestic and

international market

Outstanding growth history and prospects

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