Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems – Some Reflections
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Transcript of Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems – Some Reflections
Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems – Some Reflections
David BattenIIASA, IFS, Temaplan Group &
Summary
IIASA’s comparative work in the eightiesNested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies
Cities – planned or self-organizing systems?“Booster” theories of selective urban growthLarge ABMs – e.g. TRANSIMS (Albuquerque), EPISIMS
The new driversGlobal markets – Space versus place, land, water, ecosystems Climate change – GHG emissions, warming, sea risePeak oil – Low emissions transport, new ways of interacting?
Where to next and with what toolkit?Nonlinear human/climate/ecosystems interface
CSS Working Groups and Interaction TasksCABM/HEMA, CDUS, integrated mega-models
Adaptive capacity of Australian cities (Climate Adaptation Flagship)Fragility of critical infrastructures (with IIASA again)
Nested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies (IIASA)
Initiated in 1982Aims:
To enhance our primitive understanding of interacting metropolitan change processes which are operating at very different speeds (“slow and fast” dynamics)To develop new concepts and tools that could probe beyond familiar lifecycle theories of urbanization, suburbanization and de-urbanization
Approach:Systematic comparison of changes and simultaneous interactions between 5 metropolitan subsystems in about 20 major cities:
PopulationHousingTransportation and infrastructureEconomy and workplacesInstitutional management
Key Subsystems and Interactions
PopulationTransportServices
Dwellings
WorkplacesProduction
System
TransportSystem
HousingSystem
Changes in housingcapacity &location
Changesin transportcapacity &location
Changes inproductioncapacity &location
Rate ofemployment (-)
Vehicle density (+)
Householdsize (-)
SUPPLY SYSTEM
(STOCKS)
CAPACITYCHANGES
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND
TYPICALLINKAGE
PARAMETERS
FINAL DEMAND
Capacity Tensions
Tension signals arise when a state of excess demand or excess supply grows larger, owing to inconsistent directions or speeds of change of the supply and demand components.
e.g. Letting yD denote demand for and xD supply of dwellings at time t, we can formalize the definition of a capacity tension as a state in which:
dxD/dt > dyD/dt when xD > yD
ordxD/dt < dyD/dt when xD < yD
In the eighties, most urban management decisions were seen as necessary responses or adjustments to signals of imbalances and capacity tensions in the urban system.
However, such signals can be misleading if the underlying dynamics are not well understood.
Planned or Self-Organized?
For much of the twentieth century, cities were thought to be the result of premeditated planning aloneSome urban scientists believed that their geographical location and design could even be optimized Views on urban evolution changed in the 80s and 90s:
“Booster” theories – feedback loops (William Cronon)Self-organizing human settlements (Peter Allen)
Cities may behave more like human brainsSelf-maintaining and self-sustainingSelf-repairing
New set of drivers have emerged
“Booster” Theories of Urban Growth
IncreasingReturns to Scale& Agglomeration
GreaterSpecialization
SelectiveGrowth of
Settlements
Migrationand Trade
GROWINGCIRCULATION OF
GOODS AND PEOPLE(POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP)
Climate, the natural
environmentand otherattractors
New Drivers of Urban Dynamics?
Global Markets (How and where we produce)Space versus place?Resource scarcities – e.g. water, energy (see below)Land degradationThreatened ecosystems
Climate Change (How and where we live/consume)
GHG emissions and air pollutionGlobal warmingSea rise
Peak Oil (How we interact)Low emissions transport?New ways of moving and interacting?
Where Next and What Toolkit?
Human/Climate/Ecosystems InterfaceCSIRO-CCSS Working Groups and Interaction Tasks
ABM WG (David Batten) + HEMA network (Pascal Perez)e.g. NEMSIM, Rangelands model, Barrier Reef model et al
Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems IT
Mega-models – e.g. TRANSIMS, EPISIMS, EPICAST
Integrating social processes in climate & earth system models (John Finnigan) – possibly involving ABM
Adaptive Capacity of CitiesClimate Adaptation Flagship (Liveable cities, coasts & regions)Audit of adaptive capacity of Australian cities and towns?
Fragility of Critical InfrastructuresIIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FCI/index.html?sb=8)
Climate Adaptation FlagshipTheme 2: Liveable cities, coasts and regionsOur urban and coastal populations are exposed to climate change through:
declining water availabilityincreasing extreme weather eventssea level rise.
The four focus areas of this Theme of Flagship research are:
new building and infrastructure design, and adaptation of built infrastructure at building, development and urban system scalesinfrastructure planning at larger scales (cities, coastal development) that takes into account policies, codes, regulation, and demands for emergency servicesintegration of social, economic and environmental analyses to help communities, industry and governments adapt to the impacts of climate change at regional scaleshuman health and diseases, extreme temperatures and spatial shifts in vector-borne diseases.
Some Useful References
Michael Batty (2005): Cities and Complexity: Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata, Agent-Based Models and Fractals, MIT Press.Juval Portugali (2000): Self-Organization and the City, Springer Series in Synergetics.David Batten (2000): Discovering Artificial Economics: How Agents Learn and Economies Evolve, Westview Press.Pascal Perez and David Batten (2006): Complex Science for a Complex World: Exploring Human Ecosystems with Agents, ANU ePress.
I am currently reviewing
NEMSIM = National Electricity Market Simulator
Goal: To evolve “would-be” worlds of new agents, new micro-grids and new rules
Simulation is changing the frontiers of science
We can explore “What-if” scenarios of really complex systems
Like cities, our National Electricity Market (NEM) is a Complex Adaptive System
Our NEM as a Complex Adaptive System
Market ofAdaptiveAgents
PhysicalEnergy
Network
Socio-Technical System
ClimateScenarios
GHGEmissionsCalculator
Natural System
Stationaryenergy
accountsfor about 60%
of all GHG emissions
Changes in climate andweather forecasts,
contribute to price volatility
and demanduncertaintyin the NEM
What kind of Simulator is it?
Agent-based simulation (or MAS)
NEM participants are the software agents
Agents’ behaviours programmed via rules
Action evolves in 3 simulated environments
Collective outcomes (and surprises) emerge from the bottom up.
Examples are price volatility, market power, network congestion, regional blackouts and excessive GHG emissions.
Smart Generator Agent: Re-bidding
2 4 6 8 10
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Y A
xis
Titl
e300.0
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Tuesday, 24/06/2003
4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 4:00 (48 trading intervals)00:00
Generating Unit (Thermal – coal)
MW
Re-bid stack submitted at 22:00 on the previous day
Ten
pri
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ands
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$/MWh
Capacity Withholding
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04.30 18.00 14.00 22.00 09.30
Quantity Offered (MW)
Price($/MWh)
This 09.30 band was shifted down three times in the
morning via rebids
Evening peak
An Overview of NEMSIM
Typical Graphical Output
Regional Summary Window for GHG Emissions
Thank you
David BattenCoordinator, CSIRO Agent-Based Modelling Working
GroupCSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research