Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural ... · Committee for the Common...

Committee for the Common Organisation

of the Agricultural Markets

19 November 2015

Exchange rates

Euro – Dollar exchange rate

1.0711

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

Spot, ECB reference

-21.7%

01/07/20141.3688

1.0711

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

Spot, ECB reference

-21.7%

01/07/20141.3688

DG AGRI C3 19 November 2015

Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real

exchange rate

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15

Exchange rate: ARG Peso/Euro, Spot, ECB reference and local market quotes

Exchange rate: BRA Real/Euro, Spot, ECB reference

10/11/2015: 1 EUR = 10.26 ARS = 4.06 BRL


Feed costs

World cereal prices ($/t)

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

$ /

to

nn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 200

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 210

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 194

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 174

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 168

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 175


US CME SRW wheat futures

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

Daily volume

DEC 2015 (R)

MAY 2016 (R)

DEC 2016 (R)

180

184

192

180

185

190

195

200

205

0

50

100

150

200

250

28/10/15 01/11/15 05/11/15 09/11/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) SRW futures

Last 14 days


CME maize futures

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

0

160

320

480

640

800

960

11/12 05/13 11/13 05/14 11/14 05/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 127 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) Maize futures

Daily volume

DEC 2015 (R)

MAY 2016 (R)

DEC 2016 (R)

141

147

154

140

145

150

155

160

165

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

28/10/15 01/11/15 05/11/15 09/11/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 127 to

nnes)

Chicago (CME) Maize futures

Last 14 days


Soyabeans export prices $/ton (fob)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

05/2014 07/2014 09/2014 11/2014 01/2015 03/2015 05/2015 07/2015 09/2015 11/2015

$ /

to

nn

e

US 2Y Gulf - $ 348

Ukraine - $ 358

Brazil Paranagua - $ 328

Argentina Up River - $ 347



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

$/to

nne

Soyameal world quotationsUS$/tonne

Brazil Paranagua US Gulf Argentina Up River

Source: IGC

323.87

364.10

343.00

CME soya futures

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

11/11 05/12 11/12 05/13 11/13 05/14 11/14 05/15

$/t

Daily

tra

ded v

olu

me (

1000 c

ontr

acts

of 136 t)

Chicago (CME) soybeans futures

Daily volume

NOV 2015 (R)

JAN 2016 (R)

MAR 2016 (R)

NOV 2016 (R)

318

314

314

318

310

315

320

325

330

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

28/10/15 04/11/15

$/t

Da

ily

tra

de

d v

olu

me

(1

00

0 c

on

tra

cts

of

13

6 t)

Chicago (CME) soybeans futures

Last 14 days


Production


2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 f

Pigmeat Q1 - 0,9% - 1,6% + 1,0% + 3,7% - 0,2%

Pigmeat Q2 - 1,6% + 0,4% - 0,7% + 2,3% + 0,1%

Pigmeat Q3 - 5,5% + 0,8% + 2,9% + 3,3%

Pigmeat Q4 - 2,5% + 1,3% + 2,8% + 2,7%

EU_28 - 2,6% + 0,2% + 1,5% + 3,0%

- 6,0%

- 4,0%

- 2,0%

+ 0,0%

+ 2,0%

+ 4,0%

EU pigmeat slaughter (in heads) by quarter(2015 Forecast from September 2015)

(Forecast based on GIP and Experts Estimations)

Source= Eurostat


17,8

%

11,9

%

10,9

%

7,4%

7,0%

6,6%

6,2%

5,0%

4,5%

4,0%

3,9%

1,9%

1,9%

1,5%

1,3%

1,0%

0,9%

0,7%

0,5%

-0,1

%

-0,3

%

-0,8

%

-1,0

%

-3,9

%

-4,4

%

-9,0

%

-11,

6%

-18,

9%

3,1%

- 30,0%

- 20,0%

- 10,0%

+ 10,0%

+ 20,0%

+ 30,0%

BG HR HU IE PT ES EE PL NL RO UK DE BE CY LT AT FI SI FR SE LV DK LU GR CZ IT MT SK EU

Change in Pig Slaughter (in heads)Jan-August 2015 compared to Jan-August 2014

Source= Eurostat

EU Prices


120

135

150

165

180

Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evolution of the EU pig carcase prices€/ 100kg

AVG (10 -14) 2014 2015

139.61 €/100 kg

The prices for 2014 and 2015 in this graph are the weighted average of classes S, E & R


0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

BE CZ

DK

DE EE GR ES FR HR LT LV LU HU

MT

NL

AT PL RO SI SK FI SE UK

EU_2

8

Class S (monthly prices)

(€/100 kg)

Oct-2014 Oct-2015


0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

BE BG CZ DK

DE EE IE GR ES FR HR IT CY LT LV LU HU

MT

NL

AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

EU_2

8

Class E (monthly prices)

(€/100 kg)

Oct-2014 Oct-2015


0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

EE ES IT LT LV LU MT SK FI UK EU_28

Class R (monthly prices)

(€/100 kg)

Oct-2014 Oct-2015


25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evolution of the EU average piglet prices€/piece

AVG (10 - 14) 2014 2015

33.86 €/piece


EU trade of PIG products

46.1

35

59.7

20

71.9

37

51.6

41

63.8

00

55.9

18

56.0

77

54.4

99

72.2

76

22.6

12

21.7

30

32.3

68

43.1

79

59.8

38

51.7

89

44.1

93

37.6

55

38.8

26

34.6

31

35.1

78

25.7

88

881.

011

943.

405

1.08

3.23

0

1.23

8.13

8

1.55

6.96

1

1.54

5.90

7

1.33

1.80

8

1.52

6.56

3

1.50

9.30

2

1.78

0.56

8

1.93

8.45

5

2.08

9.36

3

1.91

0.90

8

2.56

9.08

7

2.38

6.24

5

2.62

7.63

0

3.24

6.48

6

3.18

6.66

7

3.21

7.85

4

3.02

8.91

2

2.24

7.58

7

0

250.000

500.000

750.000

1.000.000

1.250.000

1.500.000

1.750.000

2.000.000

2.250.000

2.500.000

2.750.000

3.000.000

3.250.000

3.500.000

3.750.000

4.000.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Jan-Sep 15

Ton

nes

pro

du

ct w

eig

ht

.

IMPORTS EXPORTS


EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORT

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 14

Sw itzerland 18.796 50% 19.839 51% 17.638 51% 18.206 52% 15.089 59% 15%

Chile 9.263 25% 8.942 23% 6.432 19% 3.387 10% 1.836 7% -22%

Serbia 2.398 6% 2.400 6% 3.108 9% 3.678 10% 1.692 7% -39%

Norw ay 1.728 5% 2.219 6% 2.228 6% 3.157 9% 1.547 6% -31%

Other 5.470 15% 5.426 14% 5.224 15% 6.749 19% 5.624 22%

EXTRA EU 25/27 37.655 38.826 34.631 35.178 25.788

% change + 3% - 11% + 2% - 1,3%

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Sep 152014


EU imports of selected PIG products

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

13.066 13.16915.089

4.4372.368

1.836

3.998 4.331 4.223

25.707 26.137 25.788

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

Jan-Sep 13 Jan-Sep 14 Jan-Sep 15

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28(Tonnes prod. weight)

Switzerland Chile Serbia Norway Thailand Other origins

11.232 10.613 9.637

14.4718.862 8.160

11.282 13.250

11.746

48.25350.553

44.401

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Chile Serbia Norway Thailand Other origins


0

1.500

3.000

4.500

6.000

|Jan 11

2011 |Jan 12

2012 |Jan 13

2013 |Jan 14

2014 |Jan 15

2015

in Tonnes (product weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Japa

n

Japa

n

Mex

ico (

up to

Aug

)

Mex

ico (

up to

Aug

)

Unite

d St

ates

(up

to M

ay)

Unite

d St

ates

(up

to M

ay)

Russ

ia (

up t

o Au

g)

Russ

ia (

up t

o Au

g)

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sout

h Ko

rea

Cana

da

Cana

da

Phili

ppin

es (

up to

Jul)

Phili

ppin

es (

up to

Jul)

Aust

ralia

Aust

ralia

Sing

apor

e

Sing

apor

e

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2014 (up to September) 2015 (up to September)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Importers of PIG Products (up to September)

(excl. live animals)Source : GTA & Eurostat


EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Sep 14

China 397.466 12,2% 589.829 18,5% 668.411 20,8% 713.661 23,6% 762.721 33,9% + 51%

Japan 263.772 8,1% 259.997 8,2% 261.324 8,1% 347.657 11,5% 209.493 9,3% - 17%

Hong Kong 541.082 16,7% 382.119 12,0% 388.191 12,1% 406.138 13,4% 199.073 8,9% - 33%

South Korea 208.060 6,4% 145.950 4,6% 108.482 3,4% 227.616 7,5% 163.255 7,3% + 21%

Philippines 98.199 3,0% 74.140 2,3% 102.348 3,2% 202.480 6,7% 129.041 5,7% - 12%

Ukraine 118.355 3,6% 167.129 5,2% 125.540 3,9% 106.953 3,5% 67.616 3,0% - 9%

USA 63.537 2,0% 65.256 2,0% 64.780 2,0% 90.994 3,0% 65.315 2,9% + 2%

Australia 51.684 1,6% 54.320 1,7% 51.498 1,6% 73.189 2,4% 55.876 2,5% + 24%

Angola 58.038 1,8% 55.806 1,8% 57.110 1,8% 62.624 2,1% 42.073 1,9% - 14%

Taiw an 22.651 0,7% 15.681 0,5% 11.540 0,4% 52.970 1,7% 37.833 1,7% + 12%

Ivory Coast 20.458 0,6% 26.559 0,8% 35.107 1,1% 39.820 1,3% 36.884 1,6% + 30%

Russia 883.806 27,2% 787.388 24,7% 803.476 25,0% 69.169 2,3% 10.094 0,4% - 83%

Other 519.378 16,0% 562.491 14,5% 540.047 13,7% 635.640 14,4% 468.314 20,8%

Extra EU28 3.246.486 3.186.667 3.217.854 3.028.912 2.247.587

% change - 2% + 1% - 6% + 5,8%

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Sep 152014


EU exports of selected PIG products

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

496.148 506.086762.721

169.608 253.541

209.493283.665297.269

199.07370.021

134.550163.255

1.191.178 786.681784.004

2.286.3842.125.100

2.247.587

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000


Tons (pw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations

633.760 605.2641.098.235

888.951

724.896

165.775

316.548375.458

2.537.295 1.673.7091.637.378

4.454.127

4.047.6514.227.743

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

4.000.000

4.500.000

5.000.000


in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

|Jan 11

2011 |Jan 12

2012 |Jan 13

2013 |Jan 14

2014 |Jan 15

2015

in Tonnes (product weight)Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

EU

EU

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Cana

da

Cana

da

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Braz

il

Braz

il

Mex

ico (

up to

Aug

)

Mex

ico (

up to

Aug

)

Bela

rus

Bela

rus

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2014 (up to September) 2015 (up to September)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to September)

(excl. live animals)Source : GTA & Eurostat

DG AGRI C3 19 September 2015


World prices



55,0

75,0

95,0

115,0

135,0

155,0

175,0

195,0

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |

Weekly average Pigprices 2010 - 2015 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil, Canada and the US

EU

US

Braz. avg

CDN Ontario

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat . As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S.US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = average of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)

#N/A 117,02117,03 #N/A

Private storage



PIG MEAT SECTOR Regulation: 360/2015 Brussels 17-Nov-15

T O N N E S

APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT TOTAL

CODE NC

ex 0203 11 10 0 100 150 39 289

ex 0203 12 11 55 334 591 2 295 3 275

ex 0203 12 19 30 202 80 313 625

ex 0203 19 11 0 0 0 0 0

ex 0203 19 13 156 1 066 198 95 1 515

ex 0203 19 55 (1) 6 070 17 362 7 925 6 083 37 440

ex 0203 19 15 442 1 448 396 148 2 434

ex 0203 19 55 (2) 1 026 3 907 3 159 1 097 9 189

ex 0203 19 55 (3) 209 1 887 1 308 388 3 793

7 989 26 305 13 808 10 458 58 560T O T A L

PRIVATE STORAGE EC - 2015

PRODUCT

HALF-CARCASSES

HAMS

SHOULDERS

FORE ENDS

RELEASE FROM STORE

BY PRODUCT

LOINS

LEGS BONED

BELLIES

BELLIES BONED

MIDDLES BONED

Follow market updates via the

Pigmeat Dashboard

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/d

ashboards/index_en.htm


http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm

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