Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 11 December 2014.

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets

11 December 2014

DG AGRI C3 11 December 2014

115

130

145

160

175

190

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€/1

00 k

g

Evolution of the EU average pig carcass priceClass E & S prices from 1/1/2014

5 yr Avg former class E (09-13) 2011 DE 2011 2013 2014Class E

2014Class S


30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€/p

iece

Evolution of the EU average piglet prices

5 yr avg (09 - 13) 2013 2014


115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

€/ 1

00

kg

2014 Week nr: 45

Weekly pig price (average class S and E) in FI, EE, LV, LT, HU and PL compared to the EU average

EE LV LT PL HU FI EU 5 yr Avg former class E (09-13)

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

€/ 1

00

kg

2014 Week nr: 45

Weekly pig price (average class S and E) in BE, DE, IE, DK, FR and NL compared to the EU average

BE DE EI DK FR NL EU 5 yr Avg former class E (09-13)



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 2,2% -0,5% -1,6% 0,9% -0,1%

Q2 2,3% -1,6% 0,4% -1,0% 0,0%

Q3 3,1% -5,5% 0,8% 2,7%

Q4 -0,1% -2,8% 1,0% -0,2%

Ann 1,8% -2,6% 0,1% 0,6%

-6,0%

-4,0%

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

perc

en

tual

ch

an

ge

(based

on

nu

mb

er

of

head

s)

Forecast Quarterly Slaughter: Based on realised slaughter included MSs' & Experts' forecast

Last update : 8.12.2014 26 MSs communicated GIP forecast in June

- 40.0%

- 30.0%

- 20.0%

- 10.0%

+ 10%

+ 20%

+ 30%

+ 40%

+ 50%

+ 60%

IT PL EE IE HU SI BG LV PT RO LU LT DE NL ES BE CZ FR DK UK SE CY AT MT FI GR HR SK EU EU(noIT)

Evolution of pig slaughter by MS (in t)

Jan-Sep.13/Jan-Sep.14

Sep.13/Sep.14

EU - Jan-Sep: + 0.9%Sep. 13/14: + 9.9%(data without IT)



70

90

110

130

150

170

190

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

EU average pigcarcase priceEuro/ 100kg

EU avg pig price period of Aid for Private Storage déstockage


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

€uro

/ T (Cere

al & S

oja

mix

/ Com

pound feed)

Euro

/ 10

0kg ( p

ig carc

ase

)

Development of producer margins (pig price over feed costs)

Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)

Carcase price

average Margin 2009 - 2013 (49,92 €/100kg)

Cereals and Soja mix

Compound feed

NB:Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from September.Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2014. = expectations as from December 2014.


55,0

75,0

95,0

115,0

135,0

155,0

175,0

195,0

| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Weekly average Pigprices 2010 - 2014 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

EU

US

Braz. avg

CDN Ontario

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S.US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)

EU 141,40

BR 164,08

US 154,25

CDN 143,57


50,0

75,0

100,0

125,0

150,0

I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 |

Index of monthly exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the €uro

notification on the 1st of the monthJanuary 2009 = 100

Real US$ Ruble AUS$ CDN$


EU trade of PIG products4

6.1

35

59

.72

0

71

.93

7

51

.64

1

63

.80

0

55

.91

8

56

.07

7

54

.49

9

72

.27

6

22

.61

2

21

.73

0

32

.36

8

43

.17

9

59

.83

8

51

.78

9

44

.19

1

36

.08

7

37

.11

8

33

.84

5

26

.03

3

88

1.0

11

94

3.4

05

1.0

83

.23

0

1.2

38

.13

8

1.5

56

.96

1

1.5

45

.90

7

1.3

31

.80

8

1.5

26

.56

3

1.5

09

.30

2

1.7

80

.56

8

1.9

38

.45

5

2.0

89

.36

3

1.9

10

.90

8

2.5

69

.08

7

2.3

86

.24

5

2.6

27

.62

1 3.1

33

.57

0

3.0

72

.45

7

3.1

00

.88

4

2.1

20

.51

0

0

250.000

500.000

750.000

1.000.000

1.250.000

1.500.000

1.750.000

2.000.000

2.250.000

2.500.000

2.750.000

3.000.000

3.250.000

3.500.000

3.750.000

4.000.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Jan-Sep 14

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

.

IMPORTS EXPORTS


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-Sep 13

Sw itzerland 17.480 40% 18.723 52% 19.491 53% 17.495 52% 13.168 51% 1%

Serbia 859 2% 2.397 7% 2.391 6% 3.094 9% 2.772 11% 27%

Chile 11.724 27% 7.734 21% 7.467 20% 5.398 16% 2.344 9% -47%

Norw ay 1.911 4% 1.530 4% 1.986 5% 1.995 6% 2.167 8% 42%

Other 12.216 28% 5.703 16% 5.782 16% 5.863 17% 5.582 21%

EXTRA EU 25/27 44.191 36.087 37.118 33.845 26.033

% change - 18% + 3% - 9% + 1,3%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Sep 142013


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

14.962 13.066 13.168

1.8142.189 2.772

4.605

3.998 4.330

28.308

25.707 26.033

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

Jan-Sep 12 Jan-Sep 13 Jan-Sep 14

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28(Tonnes prod. weight)

Switzerland Serbia Chile Norway Thailand Other origins

13.442 11.232 10.613

1.1921.478 1.693

12.896 11.282 13.249

50.102 48.253 50.088

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Serbia Chile Norway Thailand Other origins


0

1.500

3.000

4.500

6.000

|Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

2014

in Tonnes (product weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Sep 13

China 207.352 7,9% 393.819 12,6% 586.441 19,1% 665.495 21,5% 500.778 23,6% + 1%

Hong Kong 426.697 16,2% 539.363 17,2% 381.069 12,4% 387.126 12,5% 295.337 13,9% + 4%

Japan 223.637 8,5% 231.282 7,4% 230.792 7,5% 231.601 7,5% 253.788 12,0% + 50%

Philippines 89.407 3,4% 96.880 3,1% 73.412 2,4% 101.167 3,3% 147.301 6,9% + 94%

South Korea 100.790 3,8% 193.909 6,2% 137.220 4,5% 103.055 3,3% 134.331 6,3% + 92%

Ukraine 137.736 5,2% 113.962 3,6% 161.599 5,3% 122.679 4,0% 74.896 3,5% - 22%

USA 58.736 2,2% 59.548 1,9% 60.824 2,0% 60.260 1,9% 63.940 3,0% + 43%

Russia 808.663 30,8% 847.498 27,0% 745.014 24,2% 747.233 24,1% 59.907 2,8% - 89%

Angola 44.399 1,7% 61.559 2,0% 59.210 1,9% 61.273 2,0% 49.108 2,3% + 10%

Serbia 11.169 0,4% 13.096 0,4% 25.310 0,8% 32.140 1,0% 46.270 2,2% + 116%

Australia 50.373 1,9% 44.340 1,4% 47.270 1,5% 44.509 1,4% 45.188 2,1% + 32%

Belarus 80.331 3,1% 103.830 3,3% 123.229 4,0% 87.585 2,8% 4.685 0,2% - 93%

Other 388.330 14,8% 434.485 14,5% 441.067 13,7% 456.762 14,4% 444.982 21,0%

Extra EU28 2.627.621 3.133.570 3.072.457 3.100.884 2.120.510

% change + 19% - 2% + 1% - 7,3%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Sep 142013


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

413.553 496.148 500.778

280.679 283.665 295.337171.990 169.608 253.78855.305

75.764147.301

1.254.979 1.191.216 788.977

2.283.962 2.286.4222.120.510

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000


Tons (pw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

China Hong Kong Japan Philippines South Korea Other destinations

535.950 633.760 600.790

384.185 408.135

69.044 91.577153.565

2.570.103 2.537.315 1.678.333

4.490.309 4.454.147

4.051.368

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

4.000.000

4.500.000

5.000.000


in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

China Hong Kong Japan Philippines South Korea Other destinations


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

|Jan 07

2007 |Jan 08

2008 |Jan 09

2009 |Jan 10

2010 |Jan 11

2011 |Jan 12

2012 |Jan 13

2013 |Jan 14

2014

in Tonnes (product weight)Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 11 December 2014.

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