Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural ... · Ukraine - $ 378 Brazil Paranagua -...

Committee for the Common Organisation

of the Agricultural Markets

22 September 2016

Feed costs

World cereal prices ($/t)

DG AGRI C3 22 September 2016

FEED COSTS

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

$ /

to

nn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 172

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 173

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 179

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ no

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 161

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 143

Soyabeans export prices $/ton (fob)


FEED COSTS

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

$ /

to

nn

e

US 2Y Gulf - $ 390

Ukraine - $ 378

Brazil Paranagua - $ 415

Argentina Up River - $ 391


FEED COSTS

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

juin-15 juil.-15 août-15 sept.-15 oct.-15 nov.-15 déc.-15 janv.-16 févr.-16 mars-16 avr.-16 mai-16 juin-16 juil.-16 août-16

$/to

nne

Brazil Paranagua

US Gulf

Argentina Up River

Source: IGC

383.08

399.63

374.00

Soyameal world quotations $/ton


R E M A I N D E R

P I G

EU E V O L U T I O N

38 40 44 51 51 56 60 52 42 34 33 34 34 34 40 50 60 620

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

In E

uro

s

Remainder for pig fattening

Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price Average remainder

Production


P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter

Real slaughter

2016

Q1 - 1.6% + 0.3% + 5.0% + 1.7% + 0.1%

Q2 + 0.4% - 1.3% + 3.4% + 1.4% + 4.1%

Q3 + 0.8% + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.3%

Q4 + 1.3% + 2.2% + 1.3% - 2.4%

EU_28 + 0.2% + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.2%

- 6%

- 4%

- 2%

+ 0%

+ 2%

+ 4%

2013 2014 2015 2016 f

Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP

and experts estimations)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter


61

68

9

60

61

3

60

25

2

64

01

6

61

86

2

59

80

8

61

65

9

65

39

7

64

43

6

61

90

4

63

33

5

68

53

0

65

53

6

62

74

2

63

53

7

66

87

4

65

11

3

64

33

7

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q4

EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations)

('000 heads)

2013 2014 2015 2016 f Real slaughter 2016

Re

al

sla

ug

hte

r Q

1

Re

al

sla

ug

hte

r Q

2


P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

14.0

%

12.0

%

11.0

%

8.0%

5.4%

5.3%

4.8%

4.5%

4.4%

3.5%

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

3.0%

2.8%

1.9%

1.2%

0.1%

-1.0

%

-2.0

%

-3.1

%

-4.3

%

-4.3

%

-4.6

%

-6.7

%

-6.7

%

-9.2

%

2.0%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

LU LV SK HR IE SI ES UK FI CY HU BG PL PT DE IT FR NL RO SE EE AT BE CZ DK GR LT MT EU28

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 heads)2016/2015 (up to Jun)

Source= Eurostat


P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

15.5

%

12.5

%

12.3

%

12.3

%

9.7%

5.9%

5.9%

5.6%

5.2%

4.6%

4.4%

3.0%

2.5%

2.4%

2.3%

2.1%

1.6%

1.4%

1.3%

-0.3

%

-0.9

%

-2.4

%

-3.1

%

-3.4

%

-4.0

%

-5.1

%

-6.7

%

-11.

2%

1.6%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

LU SK HR LV SI CY ES UK IE HU PL FR FI BG PT RO IT NL EE DE SE AT GR CZ BE DK LT MT EU28

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 tonnes)

2016/2015 (up to Jun)

Source= Eurostat


P R O D U C T I O N

IN TONNES

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Pig Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes

2014 2015 2016

Source - Estat-Newcronos

Prices


P I G P R I C E S


EU

Pric

es

EU Prices Evolution since last week

166,48Average

(S-E)+ 0,8%

167,13Class S + 0,7%

165,46Class E + 1,0%

43,18Piglet + 0,3%€/head

€/1

00

kg

cw

Evolution since last month

Evolution since last year

+ 1,1%

+ 1,0%

+ 1,1%

- 0,1%

+ 11,7%

+ 11,3%

+ 12,3%

+ 29,4%

37


P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

E U E V O L U T I O N

AVERAGE CLASSES S & E

115

130

145

160

175

190

EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices(€/ 100kg)

Average (11 -15) 2014 2015 2016

Latest price (Week 37) : 166 EUR/100 kg


P R I C E S

P I G L E T S


30

35

40

45

50

55

EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices(€/head

Average (11 - 15) 2014 Piglet - 2015 Piglet - 2016

Latest price (Week 37) : 43.18 EUR/100 kg

Evolution compared same period last year (Week 37) : + 29.4%


W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG PRICES

EU, BR, CAN, US

Weekly average Pig prices 2005 - 2016 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

EU US BR CAN

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S.US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb (Feedstuffs.com)BR = average of maximum prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/suino)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)

165.13 127.37 125.23 125.99

EU trade of PIG products


T R A D E

EU T R A D E B A L A N C E

46 1

35

59 7

20

71 9

37

51 6

41

63 8

00

55 9

18

56 0

77

54 4

99

72 2

76

22 6

12

21 7

30

32 3

68

43 1

79

59 8

38

51 7

89

44 1

93

37 6

55

36 9

67

34 4

87

35 2

45

33 0

83

18 3

70

881

011

943

405

1 08

3 23

0

1 23

8 13

8

1 55

6 96

1

1 54

5 90

7

1 33

1 80

8

1 52

6 56

3

1 50

9 30

2

1 78

0 56

8

1 93

8 45

5

2 08

9 36

3

1 91

0 90

8

2 56

9 08

7

2 38

6 24

5

2 62

7 63

0

3 24

6 48

6

3 24

7 95

6

3 24

2 35

6

3 03

3 83

3

3 26

6 79

5

2 42

3 60

3

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

3 500 000

3 750 000

4 000 000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Jan-

Jul 1

6

Tonn

es c

arca

se w

eigh

t

EU Trade of PIG products

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)


T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

IMPORT

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan- Jul 15

Switzerland 18 731 51% 17 399 50% 18 207 52% 20 225 61% 12 249 67% 3%

Chile 8 756 24% 6 432 19% 3 416 10% 2 896 9% 1 831 10% 12%

Norway 2 045 6% 2 202 6% 3 192 9% 2 314 7% 1 154 6% -22%

USA 1 264 3% 1 548 4% 1 498 4% 1 769 5% 979 5% 4%

Other 6 171 17% 6 906 20% 8 932 25% 5 879 18% 2 157 12%

Extra-EU 36 967 34 487 35 245 33 083 18 370

% change - 7% + 2% - 6% - 9.6%

2012 2013 2014 Jan-Jul 162015

EU imports of selected PIG products

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

10 13211 917 12 249

2 3261 640 1 831

5 021 4 0071 821

20 754 20 325

18 370

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes c. weight)

Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins

8 053 7 629 8 967

6 983 6 128 5 580

9 0756 731 5 571

3 5654 117 3 708

8 936

5 5984 288

40 626

34 74432 642

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins


T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S



W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

E U I M P O R T S

PIG MAIN IMPORTERS Ch

ina

+ H.

Kon

g

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Japa

n

Japa

n

Mex

ico (u

p to

May

)

Mex

ico (u

p to

May

)

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sout

h Ko

rea

Cana

da

Cana

da

Aust

ralia

Aust

ralia

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2015 (up to July) 2016 (up to July)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July)

(excl. live animals)Source : GTA & Eurostat

EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 15

China 589 805 18.2% 668 386 20.6% 717 033 23.6% 1 110 562 34.0% 1 156 931 47.7% + 106%

Japan 259 997 8.0% 261 324 8.1% 347 721 11.5% 330 133 10.1% 219 799 9.1% + 13%

Hong Kong 381 703 11.8% 388 015 12.0% 408 183 13.5% 291 140 8.9% 199 034 8.2% + 45%

South Korea 145 950 4.5% 108 482 3.3% 227 825 7.5% 232 377 7.1% 130 582 5.4% - 15%

Philippines 74 140 2.3% 102 348 3.2% 202 522 6.7% 189 361 5.8% 128 831 5.3% + 26%

USA 65 116 2.0% 64 710 2.0% 90 985 3.0% 101 991 3.1% 73 912 3.0% + 31%

Australia 54 262 1.7% 51 467 1.6% 73 156 2.4% 85 172 2.6% 56 239 2.3% - 6%

Ukraine 167 129 5.1% 125 540 3.9% 106 780 3.5% 96 815 3.0% 43 384 1.8% - 7%

Vietnam 1 369 0.0% 3 269 0.1% 16 056 0.5% 38 227 1.2% 34 033 1.4% + 134%

Taiwan 15 681 0.5% 11 540 0.4% 52 970 1.7% 53 687 1.6% 28 943 1.2% - 9%

Ivory Coast 26 559 0.8% 35 107 1.1% 39 773 1.3% 49 874 1.5% 21 486 0.9% - 24%

Serbia 21 679 0.7% 28 336 0.9% 62 905 2.1% 47 538 1.5% 21 074 0.9% - 20%

Other 1 444 563 44.5% 1 393 832 14.5% 687 924 13.7% 639 918 14.4% 309 353 12.8%

Extra-EU 3 247 956 3 242 356 3 033 833 3 266 795 2 423 603

% change - 0% - 6% + 8% + 36.7%

2012 2013 2014 Jan-Jul 162015


T R A D E

E U E X P O R T S


EU exports of selected PIG products

Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

387 837 560 931

1 156 931227 369194 145

219 799

219 142137 691

199 034

112 486 153 404

130 582

594 048623 926

588 425

1 653 6581 772 569

2 423 603

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000


Tons (cw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations

449 896780 637

1 740 792694 250585 786

706 991

296 496191 388

283 1331 261 265

1 283 013

1 239 4743 059 636

3 269 293

4 371 114

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

5 000 000


in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations


T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S



W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

Germany361 865

31%

Denmark199 392

17%

Spain225 347

19%France93 973

8%

Netherlands146 558

13%

Ireland47 955

4%

United Kingdom45 091

4%

Others49 014

4%

Main EU MS exporting pigmeat to China(In tonnes CW)

Germany Denmark Spain France

Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Others

Germany533 377

31%

Denmark309 572

18%

Spain331 725

19%France158 304

9%

Netherlands219 235

13%

Ireland73 914

4%

United Kingdom52 121

3%

Others62 544

3%

Main EU MS exporting pigmeat to China(In '000 €)

Germany Denmark Spain France

Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Others

EU PIG E X P O R T S

T O C H I N A


W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

E.U. I M P O R T S

PIG MAIN EXPORTERS EU

EU

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Cana

da

Cana

da

Braz

il Braz

il

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Mex

ico (u

p to

May

)

Mex

ico (u

p to

May

)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2015 (up to July) 2016 (up to July)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July)

(excl. live animals)Source : GTA & Eurostat

Follow market updates via the Meat

Market Observatory

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-

observatory/meat/index_en.htm >

Pigmeat


http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm



Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural ... · Ukraine - $ 378 Brazil Paranagua -...

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