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![Page 1: Climate Protection Strategies and Transformation of Energy Systems Dr. Astrid Schulz German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Secretariat.](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022032517/56649caf5503460f949728d3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Protection Strategies and Transformation of Energy
Systems
Dr. Astrid Schulz
German Advisory Council on Global Change
WBGU Secretariat
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German Advisory Council on Global Changeto the Federal Government (WBGU)
Members:
A. Epiney, Inst. Droit Européen, Fribourg
H. Graßl, MPI Hamburg
R. Schubert, ETH Zürich
M. E. Kulessa, FH Mainz
J. Luther, Fraunhofer ISE Freiburg
F. Nuscheler, INEF Duisburg
R. Sauerborn, Univ. Heidelberg
H.-J. Schellnhuber, Tyndall Centre
E.-D. Schulze, MPI Jena
Mission:
• set up by the Federal Government in 1992 as an independent advisory body
• Every two years submits a report to the Federal Government containing recommendations for research and further action to combat global problems in the field of environment and development.
• Special reports and policy papers for particular events
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Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond
Special report, November 2003
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Towards Sustainable Energy Systems
Report
Summer 2003 (german)
Spring 2004 (english)
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Ecological guard rails
• Climate protection temperature rise < 2°C and <0.2°C /decade
• Sustainable land use 10-20% of global surface reserved for nature conservation Less than 3% for bioenergy crops or carbon sequestration
• Protection of rivers and catchment areas 10-20% of riverine ecosystems reserved for nature
conservation
• Protection of marine ecosystems No use of oceans for carbon storage
• Prevention of atmospheric air pollution
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Challenge: Sustainable Development• 2 billion people live in energy poverty• Access to modern energy services condition for development• 1,6 millions die every year due to traditional biomass burning
Source: IEA
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Socioeconomic guard rails• Access to advanced energy for all• Meet individual requirements for energy
By 2020 at least 500 kWh per person By 2050 at least 700 kWh per person
• Limit proportion of income spent for energy Poor households: <10% of income for energy
• Minimum macroeconomic development• Keep risks within a normal range
Phase out of nuclear power
• Prevent desease caused by energy use
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Long-term scenariosBasis for the WBGU exemplary path: A1T-450 (IPCC-Post-SRES scenario, IIASA, MESSAGE-Model)
A High economic growth
1 Economic and social convergence, globalization, cooperation between regions
T dynamical technological development towards non-fossile energy sources
450 CO2 stabilization level in ppmv.
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From temperatures to stabilization levels
450 ppm CO2 path (until 2100)
Different values of climate Sensitivity
A1T-scenario
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WBGU Exemplary Path
Energy productivity to be improved 1.4% per year initially, later 1.6% p.a. (historical: 1%).
Three pillars:
• Declining use of fossil fuel
• Rising use of renewables
• Growing energy Productivity
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Improve energy productivity• Establish international standards prescribing
minimum efficiencies for fossil fueled power plants• By 2012 generate 20% of electricity in the EU
through combined heat and power (setting binding national quotas)
• Create incentives for efficiency through ecological financial reforms and remove subsidies for fossil and nuclear energy
• Improve information of end user (harmonization of efficiency standards and labels)
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Sustainable potential of technologies
The potential of an energy source covering all aspects of sustainability: requires careful examination of different ecological and socio-economic aspects.
Examples:
Technology Already used potential (EJ/a)
Sustainable potential (EJ/a)
Hydropower 9.9 12 (by 2020)
Solar electricity 0.01 > 1000
For comparison: global consumption in 2000 was 420 EJ.
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WBGU Exemplary Path: Global Energy mix
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Characteristics of WBGU exemplary path
Increased energy productivity•Factor 3 by 2050 (1.6% increase)
Phase out of non sustainable energy sources
•Fossil fuels: long term phase out necessary •Nuclear energy: phase out by 2050
Phase in of renewable energy: 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050, 85% by 2100•Solar energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade)
•Wind energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade until 2020)
•Biomass: Conservative assessment of sustainable potential (100 EJ/a)
•Hydro, Geothermal: Conservative assessment (15 EJ/a, 20 EJ/a)
CO2 sequestration necessary•200 Gt storage total (transition technology), use of depleted oil and gas fields•Biomass + sequestration (negative emissions)
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Visualization of surface Area required for solar electricity by 2050
a) Area for North America, 100% solar power plants
b) Area for Western Europe:2/3 generated in Europe (25% solar power plants, 75% distributed)1/3 generated in Sahara (100% solar power plant)
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Advancing Research and Development
Increase government expenditure on energy research • Ten-fold by 2020 (OECD)
International cooperation• UN: World Energy Research Cooperation Programme (WERCP)
(in analogy to World Climate Research Programme)
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Model projects for strategic leverage
Model projects - examples• Substitution of traditional biomass use by biogenic bottled gas• Energy-efficient buildings in the low-cost sector (South African
townships)• One-million-huts electrification programme“ for DC (off-grid)
Energy partnerships• Strategic Energy partnership, e.g. between EU and North Africa
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Uncertainties relating to permissible emissions between 2000 and 2100
Model results for a pure CO2 emission scenario (no other GhG or aerosols included) for absolute warming below 2 C (Kriegler and Bruckner, 2003)
Divergence of 1,500 GtC exceeds the cumulative emissions of the exemplary path (650 GtC)
Note: the exemplary path also gives consideration to other GhG and aerosol effects: the path remains inside the WBGU climate window for a climate sensitivity of up to 2.2 C.
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Elements of WBGU transformation strategy
• Eradicating energy poverty
• Improving energy productivity
• Expanding renewables substantially
• Mobilizing financial resources
• Using model projects for strategic leverage
• Advance in research and development
• Strengthening global energy policy institutions
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Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond
Special report, November 2003
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Choice of Scenarios
WBGU constraints:•Biomass use (incl. non-commercial) limited to 100 EJ•Hydro limited to 12 EJ medium term (15 EJ long term)•Nuclear plants globally phased out until 2050
•Cumulative CO2 storage 300 GtC maximum
(storage phasing out 2100)
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Primary energy use in IIASA-WBGU-Scenarios
A1T* A1T*-450
B1* B1*-400
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Primary energy use in IIASA-WBGU-Scenarios
B2 B2-400
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Emission entitlements
NAM – North America (USA, Canada), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey), PAO – Pacific OECD (Japan, NZ,Australia), EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), PAS – Other Pacific Asia, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa
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IIASA World regions
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Cumulative CO2 emissions
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AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, NAM – North America (USA, Canada), PAO – Pacific, PAS – Other Pacific Asia, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey).
Effects of mitigation on GDP
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Recommendations emission reductions
• CO2 target below 450 ppm, otherwise climate window will be left in case climate sensitivity exceeds 2 ºC.
• Global energy and industry related CO2 emissions must be reduced by 45-60% by 2050.
• Industrialized countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions from the use of fossil fuels by at least 20% by 2020.
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For further information and download/order of reports:
www.wbgu.de
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Spare slides
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