Market Potential Analysis

Shawna Jones, Mollye Peters, Jessica Otterman, Erica Steele

Company Background• Started in 1993

• Denver, Colorado

• Found and CEO: Steve Ells

• “Food With Integrity”

• 837 locations

• 33 states, District of Columbia, and Toronto, Canada

(Chipotle Mexican Grill, 2009)

• Fastest growing U.S. restaurant chain (% increase in foodservice revenue)

(Basham, 2009)

SWOT AnalysisStrengths• Naturally raised chicken and pork • Green buildings• No artificial flavorings or colors• Vegetarian and vegan choices• Over 300 restaurants recycle

Weaknesses• Not fully expanded in the U.S.• Only 50% of stores have natural beef• Difficulty to fulfill “Food With Integrity” philosophy

Opportunities• Eco-friendly trend in design• Popularity of natural food products and trend in healthy choices

Threats• Attitudes toward American brands• Restaurants in foreign countries mostly run by natives (“Eating Places”, 2009).

(Chipotle Mexican Grill, 2009)

Macroscreening• Positive attitude towards dining out• Eating out as a convenience or social pastime

Four Promising Nations

• Australia• Ireland• United Kingdom• Japan

Criteria and Weights

20%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10% Urban Population

% Import Growth- Food & Beverage Industry

Ease of Doing Business

Population Growth Rate

PPP Per Capita

Likeliness of Dining out

Urban Population

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Japa

n UK

China

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Irela

ndIta

ly

New Z

eala

nd

Spai

n0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 89%

80%

66%

90%

43%

77%74%

61%

68%

87%

77%

Urban Population (2008)

Country

Perc

ent

of

Tota

l P

opula

tion

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

% Growth of Import ofFood and Beverage Industry

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Japa

n UK

China

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Irela

ndIta

ly

New Z

eala

nd

Spai

n0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%98.80%

52.72%

38.53%

59.57% 60.77% 63.15%

53.06%

83.39%

72.46% 74.93% 76.87%

Growth of Food/Beverage Imports

Country

Perc

ent

Gro

wth

for

5 Y

ears

(CenTradeX, 2007)

Ease of Doing Business

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Japa

n UK

China

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Irela

ndIta

ly

New Z

eala

nd

Spai

n0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9 812 10

83

31

25

7

65

2

49

Ease of Doing Business

Country

Rank

(CenTradeX, 2009)

Population Growth Rate

-0.200%

0.000%

0.200%

0.400%

0.600%

0.800%

1.000%

1.200%1.195%

0.817%

-0.191%

0.279%

0.655%

0.549%

-0.053%

1.120%

-0.047%

0.935%

0.072%

Population Growth Rate

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

PPP Per Capita

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Japa

n UK

China

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Irela

ndIta

ly

New Z

eala

nd

Spai

n$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$38,100$39,100

$34,000$36,500

$6,000

$33,200$35,400

$45,300

$31,300

$28,000

$34,700

PPP per Capita (2008)

Country

US D

ollars

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

Likelihood of Dining Out

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Japa

n UK

China

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Irela

ndIta

ly

New Z

eala

nd

Spai

n0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

7

10

6

8

5

1

4

9

3

7

2

Likelihood of Dining Out

Country

Rankin

g

(Euromonitor International, 2009)

ModelAustralia Ireland Japan UK

Criteria Weight Rank Weighted Rank Weighted Rank Weighted Rank Weighted

Urban Population 20% 9 1.8 2 0.4 3 0.6 10 2

% Growth (5yr) of Imports for Food & Beverage Industry 20% 10 2 9 1.8 1 0.2 4 0.8Ease of Doing Business 20% 6 1.2 8 1.6 5 1 9 1.8Population Growth Rate 15% 10 1.5 9 1.35 1 0.15 5 0.75

PPP Per Capita 15% 8 1.2 10 1.5 5 0.75 7 1.05Likelihood of Dining Out 10% 7 0.7 9 0.9 5 0.5 8 0.8

8.4 7.55 3.2 7.2

Selection

Australia

• Economy has seen over 17 years of continuous growth

• High affinity towards American products

• Tendency towards healthy and active lifestyle

• Egalitarian and values relationships

• Voted 2nd most ethical nation to conduct business with

• Population is approximately 21,262,641 (July 2009)

Rationale

(Global Road Warrior, 2009)

Sydney• 4,193,500 urban population• wealthiest city in Australia• possesses many tourist attractions

Melbourne• 3,698,200 urban population• cultural capital of Australia• center of business

Brisbane• 1,849,500 urban population• largest city in the world in terms of land mass• night life

Prospective Cities

(Global Road Warrior, 2009)

Sales Forecast - Industry Food Service Industry Sales for 2010 in

Australia

• Method 1: • Approximately $1.24 billion • U.S. and Australian urban populations• Projected U.S. Food Service Industry Sales

for 2010

• Method 2:• Approximately $781 million• Australian Foodservice Market Volume• Australian Market Segmentation for Fast

Food

(Basham, 2009)

(World Fact Book - Australia & US, 2009)

(Datamonitor Industry Market Research, 2009)

• Method 1: • Approximately $1.8 million for 3 locations

in 2010 ($607,343 per store) • Approximately $2.1 million in 2011

($732,000 per store)• Chipotle restaurant sales for 2007 and

2008• Total number of locations for U.S.• Urban population of U.S. compared to

Australia

Sales Forecast - Brand

(Chipotle Mexican Grill, April 2009)

(World Fact Book - Australia & US, 2009)

• Method 2: • Approximately $6.4 million for 3 locations

in 2010 ($2.1 million per store)• Approximately $6.6 million in 2011

($2.2 million per store)• Total sales, number of restaurants, and

growth rate for McDonald’s

Sales Forecast - Brand

(McDonald's Australia - A case study of a multinational operating within the Australian Economy, 2007)

(Datamonitor Industry Market Research, 2009)(McDonald's (Australia), 2009)

Basham, M. (2009, September 3). Industry Surveys: Restaurants. Retrieved October 6, 2009, from Market Insight Database.CenTradeX. (2009). Country Comparator - Tools & Games - globalEDGE. Retrieved October 6, 2009, from globalEDGE: http://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/countryrank.asp?Year=2008&Statistic=12465CenTradeX. (2007, March). Food and Beverage Industry Trade Statistics - globalEDGE. Retrieved October 6, 2009, from globalEDGE: http://globaledge.msu.edu/industries/Food-and-Beverage/tradestats/Central Intelligence Agency. (2009, October). World Fact Book. Retrieved October 4, 2009, from CIA - The World Fact Book: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/Chipotle Mexican Grill. (2009, April). 2008 Annual Report and Proxy Statement. Retrieved October 6, 2009, from Chipotle.com: http://phx.corporate-ir.netChipotle Mexican Grill. (2009). Chipotle: Gourmet Burritos and Tacos. Retrieved October 6, 2009, from Chipotle Mexican Grill: http://www.chipotle.com/#/landDatamonitor Industry Market Research. (2009, August 15). Australia-Foodservice. (Industry overview). Retrieved October 5, 2009, from Business and Company Resource Center: http://galenet.galegroup.com

Works Cited

"Eating Places." Encyclopedia of American Industries. Online Edition. Gale, 2009. Reproduced in Business and Company Resource Center. Farmington Hills, Mich.:Gale Group. 2009. http://ezproxy.butler.edu:2133/servlet/BCRCEuromonitor International. (2009). Country Reports: Australia. Retrieved October 7, 2009, From Global Market Information Database.Global Road Warrior, The (2008). Australia: Business Culture: Business Ethic and Framework. Retrieved 10/11/2009, from www.globalroadwarrior.com/ContentInfo.asp?nid=13.03&cid=7&next_nid=13.04&ctry=Australia&parent=Business%20CultureGlobal Road Warrior, The (2009). Welcome to Australia. Retrieved October 7, 2009, from Global Road Warrior: http://globalroadwarrior.com/welcome/asp?cid=7McDonald's (Australia). (2009). Our Story. Retrieved October 8, 2009, from McDonald's (Australia): www.mcdonalds.com.au/about-us/our-storyMcDonald's Australia - A case study of a multinational operating within the Australian Economy. (2007, February 21). Retrieved October 8, 2009, from Australian Trade Comission: www.austrade.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/1454/EFF_mcdonaldscasestudy.pdf.aspxWorld Fact Book - Australia & US. (2009). Retrieved October 7, 2009, from World Fact Book.

Works Cited

Questions?