CESI Presentation First Phase

Feasibility Study for the Kosovo B (KS) – Kashar (AL) 400 kV Transmission Interconnection Project

ENERGY SECTOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT KOSOVO

ESTAP II/1WORLD BANK Grant No. H048

Pristine, 21-22 February 2005 – ESTAP II/1 SC-2Technical Economic Comparison of Alternative

Overall Objective of Kosovo – Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line

Impact of a strong interconnection between two complementary Kosovo (thermal) and Albanian (predominantly hydro) systems:

Allow for realizing an optimal short-term and medium-term generation

dispatch optimization of the hydrologic and thermal resources;

Improve reliability of electricity supply as a result of increase of

generator availability, decrease of the “power risk” to cover the peak

for the Kosovo and of the “water or energy risk” for Albania.

Reduce the investments in installed generating capacity in both

systems.

Increase exchanges and transactions of electricity on the Region

contributing to the development of the SEEREM

Realize important cost saving in operation through joint and

coordinating operations of both power systems


Technical Economic Comparison of Alternatives of Kosovo – Albania 400 kV Interconnection Line

Objective of the Study

To perform technical and economic comparison of

all proposed interconnection variants and sub-

variants

To make recommendations regarding the selection of

the preferred variant of 400 kV interconnection line.

The selected variant will be analyzed in detail

during the second phase of the study


Methodology for the first phase of the project

Least –cost Generation Plan

KOSOVO

Transmission System Master Plan KOSOVO

Export-oriented Generation IPP

KOSOVO

Forecasted Demands KOSOVO

Forecasted Demands ALBANIA

Scenarios of Regional transits

North -South KOSOVO

Least –cost Generation Plan

ALBANIA

Scenarios of Regional transits

East - West KOSOVO

Transmission System Master Plan ALBANIA

Definition of Scenarios of power transfers between KOSOVO - ALBANIA

First phase (3 months) Network studies (L-f, Loadability, TTC and ATC, etc.) for technical

and economical comparison of interconnection Alternatives.

Selection of variant of new 400 kV line between

KOSOVO - ALBANIA


Review of Electricity Demand and Supply Development


Development of Electrical Energy Demand Kosovo 2000 - 2020


Development of Peak System Load Kosovo 2000 - 2020


Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo

Analysed Scenarios

Scenario I: LC generation plan from ESTAP I- MGS;

Scenario II: New TPP Kosovo B3 (2012) and B4 (2013);

Scenario III: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3

(2009) and new TPP Kosovo B3 (2012) and B4 (2013);

Scenario IV: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3

(2009) and new TPP Kosovo B3 (2012), B4(2013), B5 (2016) and B6

(2017).

Scenario V: New TPP Kosovo B35 (2012) and B45 (2013);

Scenario VI: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3

(2009) and new TPP Kosovo B35 (2012) and B45 (2013);

Scenario VII: Rehabilitation of Kosovo A5 (2007), A4 (2008) and A3

(2009) and new TPP Kosovo B35 (2012), B45 (2013) and B55 (2016)


Development of Electricity Generation in Kosovo


Electrical Energy Balance Scenario IINew TPP 2x340 (no Kosovo A rehabilitation)


Electrical Energy Balance Scenario IIINew TPP 2x340 and Kosovo A rehabilitation


Electrical Energy Balance Scenario Scenario VII New TPP 3x500 and Kosovo A rehabilitation


ENERGY & PEAK LOAD FORECASTAlbania 2002-2015


Development of the generationAlbania 2003-2015


Daily Peak Load of Kosovo & Albanian Power Systems Year 2003


Review of studies on the SEE Region related to the Project


Studies on the SEE Region related to the Project

Energy Sector Technical Assistance Project ESTAP, WB study 2002

Albania Energy Sector Study, World Bank Project 2003

Pre-feasibility study report “Interconnection line 400 kV between Kosovo and Albania” 2001

Regional Study on Electricity Supply and Demand in South-East Europe (2002-2012), Decon 2003

Feasibility Study of 400 kV Transmission line Elbasan – Tirana – Podgorica, Fichtner, 2001 (Updated 2003)

Review of Electricity Supply and demand in SEE. EKC Belgrade, 2004

Electricity Supply for Kosovo - Medium to Long Term Strategy, 2001

Kosovo Electric Power System Development Strategy, Energy Strategy and Policy Committee, 2002


Energy and Peak Load on SEEMontenegro

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

GW

h

Montenegro GWh Montenegro GWh Expon. (Montenegro GWh)

Montenegro

700

750

800

850

900

950

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

MW

Montenegro MW Montenegro MW Expon. (Montenegro MW)

Macedonia

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

GW

h

Macedonia GWh Macedonia GWh Expon. (Macedonia GWh)

Macedonia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

MW

Macedonia MW Macedonia MW Expon. (Macedonia MW)


Energy and Peak Load on SEE

Serbia

28,000

29,00030,000

31,00032,000

33,00034,000

35,00036,000

37,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

GW

h

Serbia GWh Serbia GWh

Expon. (Serbia GWh) Expon. (Serbia GWh)

Serbia

5,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,400

5,500

5,600

5,700

5,800

5,900

6,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

MW

Serbia MW Serbia MW Expon. (Serbia MW)

Bosnia

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

GW

h

Bos&Herz GWh Bos&Herz GWh Expon. (Bos&Herz GWh)

Bosnia

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

MW

Bos&Herz MW Bos&Herz MW Expon. (Bos&Herz MW)


SEE Transmission Network


510 MW

Capability of Interconnection Transmission Lines

644 MW

125 MW

250 MW

510 MW

510 MW

1000 MW

1000 MW

510 MW1000MW

125 MW

250 MW


Natural Power flow circulation on SEE Interconnection Lines Year 2010

220 MW


PRESENT SITUATION Energy Transits 2000-2004

880GWh

1,848GWh

2,966GWh


PRESENT SITUATION Power Transits 2000-2004

729MW

525MW

823MW


Review of the exchanges in the period 2000-2003

Main exporters: Bosnia and

Herzegovina, Bulgaria and

Romania

Other countries: net importers

WB study: 4.5 GW capacity

required to meet incremental

demand to 2010 plus

rehabilitation of same order

Capacity deficit in Macedonia,

Montenegro

Summer peak in Greece

Need for new interconnections

Winter balance year 2000 - 2003

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Alb Kos Mon Bos Ser Mac Gre Bul Rom

Power System

MW

2000

2001

2002

2003

Aver

Summer balance year 2000 - 2003

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Alb Kos Mon Bos Ser Mac Gre Bul Rom

Power System

MW

2000

2001

2002

2003

Aver


Variant V1: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B (KS) – Kashar (Tirana)

Section Kosovo B– Albanian border:

Single circuit 400 kV line

Length 78 km;

Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR horizontal bundle

78 km

137 k m

K OS OVO B

TIRA NE

215 km

Section Albanian border - Kashar:


Length 137 km;



Variant V21: The 400 kV interconnection line Peje – Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)

Section Peja– Albanian border:


Length 30 km;


Section Albanian border – Vau Dejes:


Length 85 km;


Section Vau Dejes Kashar:

Double circuit 400 kV line

Length 78 km;

Conductors: 2 x 490/65 mm2 ACSR


Variant V22: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B – Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)



Length 75 km;




Length 85 km;




Length 78 km;



Variant V23: The 400 kV interconnection line Kosovo B – (Prizren) – Vau Dejes - Kashar (Tirana)



Length 96 km;




Length 85 km;




Length 78 km;



Scenarios of Power Exchanges

Inter-regional, North – South and East – West power exchanges

scenarios have been developed based on investigation of the future

generation development of power systems in SEE Region and

possible future market expectations

Two main Scenarios:

Scenario A: Only natural power-flow circulation.

Scenario B: For each target year a Table of bilateral transactions as

24 h base load:Expected total power transits in 2005 of about 750 MW;Expected total power transits in 2010 of about 1000 MW;Expected total power transits in 2015 of about 1500 MW;Expected total power transits in 2020 of about 3000 MW.


Transmission Network Model

The northwestern UCTE, CENTREL are represented by an equivalent multipole.

The main 400 kV and 220 (150/110) kV transmission systems of following countries are considered:

Slovenian power system

Croatian power system

Bosnian power system

Serbia power system;

Montenegro power system

Romanian power system

Bulgarian power system

Greek power system

Macedonian power system.


Interconnection Lines on SEE Region


Computer model of 400 kV Transmission Network


Load Model for Multiple Load-Flow Analysis

The shapes of 52 normalized weakly load curves are analyzed and four clusters are individuated

Weekly Load Duration Curves (WLDC)

For each WLDC 30 time intervals with variable length are defined for a approximation

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165

Cluster 2

Cluster 2 Approximation

Approximation of Weekly Load Duration Curve(Year 2010 Cluster 2)

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160


Definition of Hydro-Thermal Generation Dispatch

Ad-hoc Optimal Dispatch program was set up for Albanian and

Kosovo to calculate scheduled energy production

Technical and security inequality constraints are :Balance of active power;Constraints on active generation of units;Constraints on thermo-power production; Constraints on hydro-power production;


Evaluation of the Loadability of the new interconnection line


Hourly Power Exchanges between Kosovo-AlbaniaYear 2005

450 MW

520 MW


Loadability of Interconnection Lines Year 2005

Generation dispatch of thermo-hydro resources is not possible due to network congestions on the region and on interconnection lines of Albania

Power and energy transaction of the third countries in the region have a strong impact on the available transfer capabilities between two power systems.


Year 2010 Energy Balance in Kosovo & Albania


Power Exchanges among SEE CountriesWinter 2010



530 MW

690 MW


Analyzed Variants of new 400 kV tie-line

Variant 1: 400 kV line Kosovo B – Kashar (route Prishtina – Prizren

– Burrel – Tirana)

Variant V2: 400 kV interconnection line Tirana -- Vau Dejes-

Kosovo:

Sub-variant V21: Peja III – Kashar (route Peja - Deçani - Fierze -

Vau Dejes - Tirana)

Sub-variant V22: Kosovo B – Kashar (route Kosovo B -Morini -

Fierze - Vau Dejes - Tirana)

Sub-variant V23: Kosovo B – Kashar (route Kosovo B –Prizren-

Morini - Fierze - V Deja - Tirana)

Variant V3: The line Skopje (FYROM) - Elbasan (AL)

Variant V4: No new interconnection line


Variant V1 Estimated Annual Energy Transfers

New Line



New Line



Line Overload

Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 197 GWh due to line overloads


Year 2010 Comparison of Variants


Power Exchanges among SEE CountriesSummer 2015



820 MW

470 MW


Variant 1 Energy Transits on Interconnection Lines



New Line



New Line

Line fully loaded

Pmax = 718 MW



Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 1,147 GWh

Line fully loaded


Power Exchanges among SEE CountriesWinter 2020



930 MW

700 MW



New Line



Estimated Curtailed Annual Energy not delivered from Kosovo to Albania is 1,716 GWh


Period 2010-2020 Comparison of VariantsNew Line Loadability


Period 2010-2020 Comparison of VariantsRole of New Line in Albania


Period 2010-2020 Comparison of VariantsRole of New Line in SEE Region


Steady State Analysis Variant V1 Year 2010


Determination of Net Transfer Capability between Kosovo & Albania


Definition of TTC and ATC ETSO definition of the transfer capabilities:

Total Transfer Capacity (TTC)

Net Transfer Capacity (NTC = TTC – TRM)

Available Transfer Capacity (ATC = NTC – AAC)

Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) and

Already Allocated Capacity (AAC)


Methodology of Computing NTC Problem : How much incremental power transfer from Kosovo to

Albania will the transmission network of the interconnected system supports given a set of base case network conditions and a set of

contingencies?

Methodology:

Definition of a base case

Base Scheduled Transfers

Specification of contingencies

Determination of network response

Finding of the maximum transfer: a LP optimization problem formulation using the Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDF) is applied to determine the maximum transfer that satisfies the thermal criteria.

Post-processing and determination of TRM


Methodology of Computing NTC

Definition of a base case. It consists in forecasted condition and

planned configuration of the network.

Base Scheduled Transfers


Year 2010 V4 Power Flow Distribution Factors

100

100

33

34

15

15


Year 2010 V1 Power Flow Distribution Factors

100

100

21

21

9

9

38


Total and Net Transfer CapabilitiesYear 2005 and 2010

Reduction of NTC


Total and Net Transfer CapabilitiesYear 2015 and 2020


Ranking of Variants according to NTC


Cost Estimation of Interconnection 400 kV Line


Cost Estimation of 400 kV Line

The capital costs of the project comprise:

Cost of equipment and components related with manufacture,

transport to site and local transport. For line are included the

cost of conductors, shield wires, towers, insulators strings,

accessories, etc. For the line bays are included costs of circuit

breakers, disconnecting switches, busbars, accessories, etc.

Civil works necessary for construction of the line or substation,

such as access roads, foundations, buildings and related works.

Costs for erection and installation and commissioning.

Costs necessary for land acquisition, Right-of-Way (R.O.W) and

compensation.

Costs related with preparatory works necessary for the line and

substation construction and operation.


Estimated Total Cost of Variants


Economic evaluation of different Variants


Criteria and assumption for economic evaluation

The minimum NPV method is applied considering:

The annuity of the investment cost of the new line;

Amount of fixed O & M costs of the new added facilities;

The annual benefits resulting from its integration in the system.

Annual benefits directly attributed to introduction of the new line :

Without the new interconnection (Variant V4);

With the new interconnection (Variant V1 – V3).

Benefit on transmission losses

Energy Losses

Power Losses


Criteria and assumption for economic evaluation

Benefit on transmission losses

Energy Losses

Power Losses

Benefit from CB Trade


NPV of different Variants of the new 400 kV line


Technical Economic comparison of all alternatives


Methodology for Technical-Economic comparison

The following technical performance indicators are considered

Loadability Volume of annual electric Energy Exchanges realized

through new line: EE (GWh). Volume of annual electric Energy Wheeling realized

through new line: EW (GWh). Volume of annual electric Energy transmitted by new line:

annual Load Factor (%) of the line.

Transfer Capability NTC index (MW)

Energy Losses Annual Reduction of Energy Losses ELR

Transmission Network Performance

Environmental Impact


Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EE index


Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EW index


Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to LF index


Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to NTC index


Ranking of Variants of the new 400 kV line according to EL Reduction index


Conclusions & Recommendation

The final ranking of the variants based on overall evaluation of technical and economic indicators is as follows:

Variant V22 Kosovo B (KS) – Kashar (AL);



Variant V21 Peja 400 (KS) – Kashar (AL);

Variant V3 Skopje 400 (FYROM) - Elbasan 400 (AL)

The variant V4, no new line is technically not feasible.

We recommend the Variant V22: a new 400 kV line from Kosovo B(KS) to Kashar (AL) (via Vau Dejes)as the most advantageous Variant. It represents the best combination of technical indicators and economical ones.


V22 Variant

CESI Presentation First Phase

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