Challenges for the Optimal Allocation of Aid: Should MDG Priorities be More Prominent?

Christopher ColcloughUniversity of Cambridge

Criteria of ‘need’ based upon:

MDG Target for Goal 2 – UPE by 2015

MDG Target for Goal 3 – No gender disparities by 2015

UK aid to education 2005/6 and out-of-school children

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000 100000000 120000000

UK education aid

ou

t-o

f-s

ch

oo

l ch

ildre

n

Bangladesh

Uganda

Ghana

Nigeria

Kenya

India

Mozambique

Rw anda

Pakistan

South AfricaMalaysia

Cambodia

China

Ethiopia

Sudan

Out-of-school children and UK aid to education

Countries Scaling up country

Low income country

PSA country Out-of-school children (000)

2004

DFID bilateralspending on

education 05/6

Nigeria4

DR CongoPakistan 5 ChinaIndiaEthiopiaSudanSaudi ArabiaNigerAfghanistan 7

Burkina FasoKenyaCote D'IvoireMaliGhanaSomalia 6

Mozambique4

*** ***  * *  ***

*** *** *********

      

8109.66512.06463.05555.04583.03615.02562.01425.01326.01288.01271.01226.01223.01172.01129.01126.01089.0

9,815,850148,119

1,016,0172,225,297

97,885,1601,935,7272,404,221

    

5,478,318  

19,798,722 

13,694,255

Totals 49674.6 154,401,686

Global Total 76800.0 308,473,321

% of Global total 64.7 50

UK aid to education 2005/6 and out-of-school children (excl. India)

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

8000.0

9000.0

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

UK education aid

ou

t-o

f-s

ch

oo

l ch

ildre

n

Bangladesh

Tanzania

Ghana

Rw anda

Mozambique

Zambia

UgandaVietnam

Malaw i

Kenya

Nepal

South Africa

Nigeria

DR Congo

Pakistan

China

Sierra Leone

YemenColumbia

The GambiaIndonesia

Ethiopia

Sudan

NERs and per capita income 2005

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

GNI per capita

To

tal p

rim

ary

NE

R

MaltaKuw ait

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Bahamas

Oman

Mexico

Lebanon

TajikistanArgentina

Brazil

TanzaniaIndia

Somalia

DR Congo

NigerBurkina Faso

Liberia

Bangladesh

Ghana

Rw anda

Kenya

Turkey

Primary education: pupil/teacher ratios and survival to the last grade, 2001

UK aid to education and NER/survival rates

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

DFID aid to education

Ind

ex

0 N

ER

/Su

rviv

al

BangladeshTanzania

Ghana

Rw anda

Zambia

Mozambique

Uganda

Nigeria

VietnamSouth Africa

ChinaShri Lanka

Tajikistan

Botsw ana

Kenya

Malaw iNepal

Sierra Leone

Sudan

Yemen

DR Congo

BurundiPakistan

The GambiaEthiopia

LiberiaNicaragua

Cambodia

IndonesiaPeru

Priorities for the allocation of education aid, based upon different

‘needs’ criteria   Out of

school ranking

Ranking on Index 2

Index 2 ranking

Nigeria 1 4 DR Congo

DR Congo 2 1 Somalia

Pakistan 3 3 Pakistan

China 4 36 Nigeria

India 5 26 Chad

Ethiopia 6 9 Afghanistan

Sudan 7 25 Niger

Saudi Arabia 8 31 Guinea Bissau

Niger 9 7 Ethiopia

Afghanistan 10 6 Burkina Faso

Burkino Faso 11 10 Cote D’Ivoire

Kenya 12 34 Mozambique

Cote D’Ivoire 13 11 Mali

Mali 14 13 Burundi

Ghana 15 22 Eritrea

DFID aid to education vs NER/survival/gender (Index 1)

R2 = 0.1856

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

DFID aid to education

Ind

ex 1

Bangladesh

Tanzania

GhanaRw anda

Mozambique

Zambia

Uganda

Nigeria

Vietnam

Malaw i

South Africa

Kenya

Nepal

DR Congo

Sierra Leone

ChinaShri Lanka

Indonesia

Sudan

Yemen

The Gambia

Pakistan

DFID aid to education vs NER/survival/gender and out-of-school (Index 2)

R2 = 0.1703

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

DFID aid to education

Ind

ex

2

BangaldeshTanzania

GhanaRw anda

Mozambique

Zambia

Uganda

Nigeria

VietnamSouth Africa

Malaw iNepal

KenyaChina

Sierra Leone

DR Congo

Pakistan

EthiopiaBurundi

Shri LankaIndonesia

Tajikistan

Sudan

DFID aid to education vs Index 2 (countries receiving DFID support only)

R2 = 0.2958

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

DFID aid to education

Ind

ex 2

BangladeshTanzania

GhanaRw anda

Zambia

Uganda

Mozambique

Nigeria

Vietnam

Malaw i

South Africa

Kenya

Nepal

DR Congo

Pakistan

Ethiopia

Sierra Leone

China

Liberia Yemen

The Gambia

Shir LankaIndonesia

Total and UK aid to education compared

R2 = 0.1817

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

total aid to basic education per child

DF

ID a

id t

o b

asic

ed

uca

tio

n p

er c

hild

Rw anda

ZambiaGhana

Sierra LeoneMozambique

Gambia, The

Tanzania

Uganda

Malaw i

BangladeshNepal

Yemen

VietnamKenya

Burundi

SudanSomaliEthiopiaDR Congo

PakistanNigeria, Chad, Aphganistan

India