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![Page 1: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CBRE Capital MarketsInvestment Properties - Debt & Equity FinanceKevin L. RandlesSenior Vice [email protected]
January 25, 2013
The Appraisal Institute : Sacramento Sierra Chapter
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Table of Contents
Economic Factors Affecting Capital Flows• Observations
Debt Market Overview• Recent Lender Survey• Current Mortgage Rates• Various Data
Equity Market Overview• Various Data
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Uncertainty & Continued Correction
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Distress Across the US
Source: RCA Troubled Assets Radar, May 2012 – Bubbles are sized to relative distress values
The commercial real estate market is improving at a modest pace, but newly troubled properties continue to enter the distress pool.
![Page 5: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
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Loans in Special Servicing by Property TypeTotaling $57.53 billion across 3,421 loans
Source: Morningstar Monthly Delinquency Report, September 2012
Office 29%
Retail21%
Hotel18%
Multifamily17%
Other9%
Industrial5%
Healthcare>1%
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Improvements Being Made
Source: Morningstar Monthly Delinquency Report, September 2012
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Source: CBRE Research and RCA Troubled Assets Radar, October 2012
Top Metros Leading Distress Space
The Metros below account for 67% of distressed and potentially troubled assets:
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
New York
Los Angeles
Las Vegas
SF Metro
South Florida
Washington,…
Chicago
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas/Ft.…
Boston
Honolulu
Philadelphia
Houston
Seattle
San Diego
Est. Asset Value ($ Billions)
Distressed
Potentially Troubled
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On a Relative Basis, Distress In Las Vegas Stands Out!
Source: RCA, Troubled Assets Radar and CBRE Research, October 2012
Relative Distress = (Metro Distressed Asset/Metro Employment ) / ( Total Distressed Asset/Total Employment ) 1 = Average Level of Distress
Over $25 Billion
$3 Billion?
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Distress Is All Relative: Which Distressed Markets Also Face A Weak Demand Outlook
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE-EA, and RCA, October 2012
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Vacancy Moving From Cyclic HighsWith vacancy high relative to long-term trends, rents are still under pressure.
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
2012Q2
Past Cyclic High “Natural Rate”
Year Back to "Natural
Rate"
Office Vacancy Rate 15.7 16.8 / 2010 13 to 15 2013
Industrial Availability Rate 13.2 14.5 / 2010 9 to 10 2015
Retail Availability Rate 13.0 13.2 / 2011 9 to 10 2017
Multifamily Vacancy Rate 4.8 7.41 / 2009 5 to 6 2010
Full Service Hotels Vacancy Rate 26.2 43 / 2009 34 to 38 2010
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Smart Money Invests Early In Cycle
Sample Wins
Slate Creek Apts – RosevilleMay-2011: $76.5mmJan-2010: $54.3mm
Oak Plaza Apts – SacramentoAug-2012: $2.1mmApr-2010: $1.1mm
Self Storage – RosevilleSep-2012: $4.3mmApr-2011: $3.8mm
Yuba Street Office – MarysvilleJan-2011: $4.7mmSep-2009: $2.3mm
Portofino Apts – SacramentoSep-2012: $1.6mmJun-2011: $1.2mm
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Smart Money Invests Early In Cycle
Source: Real Capital Analytics, US Caps & Spreads (Data through Q3 2012)
Interest Rates Have Room To Rise Without Hurting Cap Rates
Cap Rates & UST Yields : Risk Return Spread
500 BP Spread – 3X Historical!
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Improving Balance Sheets
Source: Monringstar.com
Net Income:$5 Billion 2012 (Up 10X PY)
Net Income:$4.2 Billion 2012 (Up 4X PY)
Net Income:$19 Billion
Net Income:$3 Billion
Net Income:$600 Million (Up 3X)Net Income:$2 Billion (Up 1.5X)
Net Income: $21 Billion
Domestic Bank Profits Up
Net Income:$7.5 Billion
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Improving Balance Sheets
Source: Morningstar.com
Mar-2009: 6,800
Jan-2013: 13,600
DJIA Recovers
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Debt Market Overview
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Debt Capital Markets Update
Historically low rates great for borrowers
Risk adjusted spreads attractive for lenders verses corporate’s
Returns for savers (pension funds and retirees) poor
Monetary Policy (QE-III “Infinity”) supports prolonged period of low rates
Many New Lenders formed to move up risk curve for higher rates (Structured Bridge, Mezz, Preferred Equity, JV Equity)
Relationship Lending
Large loans and portfolio loans are in demand
Flight to quality for best pricing / proceeds (3.5% 10 Yr Floor)
Less efficient market – Need to find “Sweet Spot” for lenders – wide variation of quotes for any given deal
Pundits Split: Half forecast low rates while Others forecast rise in rates
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1H 2012 Lender Composition
Improvements made in availability and cost of commercial mortgages
Issuance of agency, private label CMBS, and REIT unsecured notes exceeded full-year 2011 levels
Composition of lenders varied greatly between property types
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Debt Capital Markets Update
Life Companies• Life Co. volume +/-$45 Billion in 2012 – expect similar allocations in 2013• Large loans and portfolio loans are in demand• More conservative, but great execution• Forwards returning and some offering higher yielding mezzanine
CMBS• CMBS is stepping up again (secondary markets / B assets) +/-$ 45 Billion in 2012• CMBS spreads and rates have moved in – Rates at 4% (10 year term)• Higher LTV’s, but for a price• Dozen active lenders in the market
Banks• Using the balance sheet again• Likely investing $150 Billion (50% of total commercial mortgage market)• May offer longer term loans with some non-recourse availability• Most active at 5 year term
GSE’s (Freddie and Fannie)• $50B plus volume in 2012, pressure from FHFA to be more conservative (i.e. less
interest only and cash out refinances)• Great execution in primary and some secondary cities• Market share declining with competition• Uncertain future; Most all loans are securitized (MBS)
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Lender Survey: More of Same Plus More Risk
2012: $45 Billion Invested in Mortgage Loans & Delinquency Rate <0.1%(About 15% Retained; Balance New; Poor to CMBS or Bank)
2013: 1) Small Growth of 3% in Allocations
2) New Hires Relegated to Replacing Retirees
3) Concerns: a) Too Much Capital, b) Declining Life & Annuity Sales
4) Expect To Be Forced To Take On More Risk
5) 10-Yr Floor Rate: 3.5%
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CBRE Loan Originations : 3Q2012
3Q 2012 YTD
3Q 2011 YTD % chg
Office $2.85B $1.96B 45%
Retail $0.83B $1.29B -36%
Industrial $0.78B $1.05B -26%
Multi-Housing $7.75B $5.69B 36%
Hotels $0.28B $0.26B 8%
Special Purpose $0.60B $1.15B -48%
US Loan Origination Volume $13.09B $11.40B 15%
US Loan Sales Volume $1.39B $1.55B -10%
Total Loan Activity Volume $14.48B $12.95B 12%
Total Investment Sales Volume* $25.81B $23.29B 11%
Total US Capital Markets Activity $40.29B $36.24B 11%
Debt & Equity Finance
12% Share of All Non-Bank Loans
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CBRE Loan Activity Volume
Source: CBRE Capital Markets Loan Originations and Loan Sales
CBRE 2012:$20 Billion+900+ Loans
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Who’s Lending
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
Percentage of Total Consideration
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34.4%
13.5%15.2%
23.4%
9.9%
3.6%
Banks & Thrifts Life Insurance Companies
Agency- and GSE-back mortgage pools CMBS, CDO, and other ABS issues
Other State and Local Government
U.S. Commercial & Multifamily Debt Outstanding
By Capital SourceTotal $2.37 Trillion
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Q2 2012
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CBRE Lending Momentum Index
Source: CBRE Capital Markets, CBRE Research, data as of September 30, 2012. Seasonally Adjusted.
Private Sources Dominate Public Sources Dominate
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Loan Maturities
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Q4 2011. Updated Annually.
By Investor Type
Loan Maturities by Investor Type
0
50
100
150
200
250
Matured 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Later
$ Billions
CMBS, CDO or the ABS Life Insurance Companies
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and Ginnie Mae Credit Companies, Warehouse and Other
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CMBS Issuance
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert, October 2012
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Key Indices
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve
Prime
5-Yr T 10-Yr T1-M
LIBORDJIA
1.18.2013
3.25%
0.77% 1.87% 0.21% 13,650
9.12.2012
3.25%
0.69% 1.75% 0.22% 13,351
Year Ago3.25
%1.11% 2.16% 0.24% 11,416
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10-Year Treasury vs. 30-day LIBOR
Source: Federal Reserve, October 2012
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CMBS Spreads
Source: Citibank, October 2012
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Delinquency Rates
Source: MBA, ACLI, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and FDIC, Q2 2012
CMBS
Banks
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Source: MBA, ACLI, Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and FDIC, Q2 2012
Commercial/Multi-Housing Delinquency Rates by Lender
Lender Type Q2 2012 Q2 2011YEAR-END
2007AVG. 1997-
2000CMBS 8.97% 9.02% 0.39% 0.88%Commercial Bank/Thrifts 3.11% 3.97% 0.80% 0.78%Life Insurance Companies 0.15% 0.12% 0.01% 0.24%Fannie Mae 0.29% 0.46% 0.08% 0.18%Freddie Mac 0.27% 0.31% 0.02% 0.18%
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Who’s Lending?
Aetna Life Insurance
AIGAllstate
InvestmentsBank of America
Bentall Kennedy
CCRECapital Source Finance
CBRE Global
Investors
Charter One Bank
CIBC CIGNA CitigroupCornerston
eFannie Mae
Freddie Mac
GEGoldman
Sachs
Great West Life &
AnnuityHSBC Bank HUD FHA ING
John Hancock
JP Morgan Landesbank MetLifeNew York
LifeNorthStar Funding
Northwestern Mutual
NXT Capital Pacific Life PB CapitalPeoples
United BankPPM
Principal Real Estate Investors
Prudential
Quadrant RBSSovereign
BankStancorp Starwood TD Bank TIAA-CREF
Hartford Investment
Provident Bank
UBS UNUM UOB U.S. Bank Wells Fargo
Source: CBRE Capital Markets, banks shown are a representative sampling and alphabetical order.
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Current Debt PricingLoan Pricing Matrix for Class "A" Commercial MortgagesApplicable for Office, Industrial, and Retail Assets
Debt Yield Debt Yield
I. 5 Year Term
Life Co. Floor / Rate 0.68% Target 2.75% - 3.10% 9.5-10% Target 3.10% - 3.40% 8.75-10%
Range 2.75% - 3.40% Range 3.10% - 3.50%
CMBS Floor / Rate * 0.80% 3.80% - 4.00% 9-11% 3.90% - 4.30% 9-11%
II. 7 Year Term
Life Co. Floor / Rate 1.12% Target 3.10% - 3.25% 9.5-10% Target 3.40% - 3.50% 8.75-10%
Range 3.10% - 3.50% Range 3.20% - 3.60%
1.23% 5.25% - 5.40% 9-11% 5.40% - 5.60% 9-11%
III. 10 Year Term
Life Co. Floor / Rate 1.71% Target 3.50% - 3.75% 9.5-10% Target 3.60% - 3.90% 8.75-10%
Range 3.50% - 3.90% Range 3.60% - 4.10%
CMBS Floor / Rate * 1.76% 3.90% - 4.15% 9-11% 4.00% - 4.40% 9-11%
IV. Bank Pricing
5 Year Fixed Rate 0.68% Target 2.65% - 2.90% 10% Target 2.75% - 3.00% 9-11%
Limited Amount of 7 and 10 Year Terms Available
Floating Rate LIBOR + 175-275 bps (average L + 250 bps) - Debt Yield 10%50-70% LTV; 3-5+ year terms available (with extensions)
* - The 5 year and 10 year CMBS rates are similar currently due to more l imited investor demand / pricing issues for the 5 year paper. The 7 year CMBS debt is less active and, when available, is priced comparative to 10 year term loans currently.
IndexRate Range Rate Range
50% - 55% LTV 60% - 65%+ LTV
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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, CBRE EA
Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
Market is Deleveraging: What will 2011 Look Like?
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2007 2009 2011
Loan Breakout
Value
A-Note 45%
B-Note 15%
Mezzanine 15%
Equity 25%
A-Note 65%
B-Note 15%
Mezzanine 10%
Pref. Equity 8%
Equity 2%
A-Note 55%
B-Note 15%
Mezzanine 10%
Equity 20%
$ 80 million 1st Trust
$ 39 million 1st Trust
$52.5 million 1st Trust
2007 2009 2012 Today
Loan Breakout
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Financing Returns to Normalized 2005 Levels
Source: CBRE EA, CBRE Capital Markets
*Financing indicative of an acquisition deal. I-O Interest Only
2007 Peak 2009 Trough 2012 Today Net Operating Income $ 2,400,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 2,400,000 Capitalization Rate 6.00% 8.50% 7.00% Asset Value $ 40,000,000 $ 28,235,000 $ 34,286,000 10-year Treasury Rate 4.60% 3.60% 1.70%Spread 1.00% 3.00% 2.50%Rate 5.60% 6.60% 4.20% Years of Amortization I-O 25 30Loan Constant 5.60% 8.18% 5.86% Maximum Loan to Value 80% 65% 70%Minimum DSCR 1.15 1.30 1.25 Maximum Loan Proceeds based on Valuation $ 32,000,000 $ 18,352,750 $ 24,000,200 Maximum Loan Proceeds based on DSCR $ 37,267,000 $ 22,576,000 $ 32,720,000 Maximum Loan Proceeds (lesser amount) $ 32,000,000 $ 18,352,750 $ 24,000,200 Equity Required ($) $ 8,000,000 $ 9,882,250 $ 10,285,800 Equity Required (%) 20% 35% 30%
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Case Study: 3805 Faraday : Davis
The Situation
The flex warehouse project housed a single tenant for the 71,000 Sq. Ft. and had not yet fully ‘staffed’ the property. The developer agreed to sell the property to an investor.
The ChallengeLocate suitable financing that would supply a long term fixed rate with ample leverage to meet the 1031 trade capital needs of the investor, plus supply flexible deal points for certain future events.
The Result
CBRE Capital Markets team arranged a 12-year loan with the very best interest rate, while also attaining flexible deal features to appease the investor’s demands..
$8 Million Finance of Flex Property
Former CEO of CBRE needed certainty of close on a 1031 trade and required a lender to stretch on
valuation and soften loan covenants for a long-term estate plan transaction to provide for 100% future
unlevered cash flows.
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Case Study: United Health Facility : Utah
The Situation
The 125,000 Sq.Ft. office building possesses a single tenant occupancy which was entering multiple short term extension periods.
The ChallengeTo arrange a loan in order to refinance a rapidly maturing CMBS loan at sufficient proceeds while also supplying flexible term features to outlive the remaining term but also supplying protective covenants in case the single tenancy chose to vacate the property.
The Result
CBRE Capital Markets team arranged a five-year loan with a very low-interest rate coupled with automatic extension options and features to enhance property owner return on equity.
$10 Million Refinance for Office Property
A property possessed a maturing ‘legacy’ level loan secured by a large single tenant property that
previously entered into a short-term lease extension. We were able to structure covenants for both lender
and borrower that accomplished a win-win transaction, including supporting loan collateral valuation.
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Case Study: Rock Creek Storage : Auburn
The Situation
The owners of the self-storage project recognized an opportunity to rapidly prepay its debt capital.
The ChallengeTo arrange a loan to refinance existing debt capital but attain a very long term floating rate allowing for consistent principal reductions as compared to higher fixed rates.
The Result
CBRE Capital Markets team arranged a 15-year loan with a low floating interest rate meeting both owner and lender’s demands for market terms.
$3 Million Refinance for Self-storage Property
“In spite of the desire to rapidly repay the debt capital, all lenders were very concerned with the future of
rising interest rates and would not entertain a floating rate for more than 5 years. CBRE devised a structure protecting lender to achieve a 15-year term floating rate for the owners of the property,”
commented Kevin Randles, Senior Vice President at CBRE.
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Case Study: Monument Ridge Estates
The Situation
A class A 132 unit multi-housing property with Legacy level debt capital coming to maturity coupled with a Family Office intertwined with estate planning transfers and year end tax benefit motivations.
The ChallengeTo arrange a large enough loan to cover the outstanding debt capital allowing the owners to retain liquidity for estate plans, while also attaining long term fixed rate to outlast possible future hyper-inflation in mortgage rates projected in 10-years by the owner.
The Result
CBRE Capital Markets team arranged a 15-year, early prepayable loan with a market leading low rate, including generating the largest proceeds through complete market exposure.
$10 Million Refinance for Multi-housing Property
The client chose CBRE’s financing option due to largest loan proceeds, lowest rate and for the
longest term available allowing the owner to retain its liquid assets for further estate planning efforts.
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Case Study: Granite Drive : Rocklin
The Situation
An investor acquired the distressed property for a low price and thereafter leased up the vacant space and stabilized operations.
The ChallengeTo arrange a loan with reasonable metrics but with an amount that exceeded the total cost basis of the owner in the property, while the tenancies remained questionable due to their industry association with the housing industry.
The Result
CBRE Capital Markets team arranged a 25-year loan with an attractive low rate that allowed for 100% Loan To Cost.
$2 Million Refinance of Commercial Property
The property owner valued CBRE’s strong lender relationships and control of the loan process to help
attain a cash-out loan, which is not desirable by lenders at this stage of the cycle. Our local market
knowledge provided confidence to the lender to make a commitment to the investment. Two
additional properties were financed with the same owner and lender.
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Equity Market Overview
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National Investment Sales Benchmarks
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
NATIONAL INVESTMENT
SALES
BENCHMARKS
APARTMENT HOTEL INDUSTRIAL OFFICE RETAIL TOTAL %CHANGE
2003 $30.1 $1.3 $14.4 $49.2 $28.6 $123.6 n/a
2004 $50.9 $13.3 $21.0 $76.4 $40.6 $202.1 63.4%
2005 $90.6 $26.4 $39.8 $104.2 $51.3 $312.3 54.5%
2006 $89.2 $30.8 $44.3 $127.9 $49.6 $341.8 9.5%
2007 $79.1 $34.0 $51.8 $161.3 $53.1 $379.4 11.0%
2008 $38.7 $11.9 $23.8 $56.8 $22.2 $153.3 -59.6%
2009 $16.5 $3.3 $9.4 $18.1 $13.3 $60.7 -60.4%
2010 $35.6 $9.8 $18.1 $51.4 $22.0 $136.9 125.5%
2011 $56.6 $20.8 $24.8 $75.7 $36.8 $214.6 56.8%
Q3 2012 $45.8 $10.8 $20.9 $50.7 $32.4 $160.6 -25.2%
T10Y AVG $53 $16 $27 $77 $35 $209 Billion
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Cap Rate Forecast by Property Type
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
1993
.1
1993
.4
1994
.3
1995
.2
1996
.1
1996
.4
1997
.3
1998
.2
1999
.1
1999
.4
2000
.3
2001
.2
2002
.1
2002
.4
2003
.3
2004
.2
2005
.1
2005
.4
2006
.3
2007
.2
2008
.1
2008
.4
2009
.3
2010
.2
2011
.1
2011
.4
2012
.3
2013
.2
2014
.1
2014
.4
2015
.3
2016
.2
2017
.1
2017
.4
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Office Industrial Multi-Housing Retail Hotel: Full Service
Appraisal Cap rate, %
Multi-housing 5.0%
Hotels 8.0%
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CBRE’s US Capital Markets Activity LevelsInvestment Properties
3Q 2012 YTD
3Q 2011 YTD
% chg
Office $7.27B $8.46B -14%
Retail $2.95B $2.90B 2%
Industrial $4.85B $4.30B 13%
Multi-Housing $9.23B $5.58B 65%
Hotel $0.65B $0.87B -25%
Investment Sales Volume* $24.94B $22.13B 13%
Buyer Rep $0.87B $1.16B -25%US Investment Sales Volume $25.81B $23.29B 11%Total US Loan Activity
Volume** $14.48B $12.95B 12%Total US Capital Markets
Activity $40.29B $36.24B 11%* US Investment Sales data as reported by Real Capital Analytics. Data does not include CBRE’s individual property sales valued at less than $2.5 million
** Loan Activity Volume includes Loan Originations and Loan Sales
CBRE 20% Share
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National Value Trends – Apartments
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
2003
.1
2003
.3
2004
.1
2004
.3
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.160,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Price Per Unit Cap Rate
Price Per Unit, $1,000 Cap Rate, %
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National Value Trends – Industrial
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
2003
.1
2003
.3
2004
.1
2004
.3
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.140
50
60
70
80
90
100
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Price Per Sq Ft Cap Rate
Price Per Sq Ft, $ Cap Rate, %
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National Value Trends – Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
2003
.1
2003
.3
2004
.1
2004
.3
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.1100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Price Per Sq Ft Cap Rate
Price Per Sq Ft, $ Cap Rate, %
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National Value Trends – Retail
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
2003
.1
2003
.3
2004
.1
2004
.3
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.1100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Price Per Sq Ft Cap Rate
Price Per Sq Ft, $ Cap Rate, %
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* Through Q3 2012Source: Real Capital Analytics
Commercial Real Estate Transactions Volume by Buyer Type
Who’s Buying?
$-
$20,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$120,000,000,000
$140,000,000,000
$160,000,000,000
Unknown User/other Private Listed/REITs Inst'l/Eq Fund Cross-Border
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Transaction Volume – by Buyer Capital Type
* Through Q3 2012Source: Real Capital Analytics
Cross-Border; 7.4%
Inst'l/Eq Fund; 29.9%
Listed/REITs; 14.4%
Private; 40.6%
User/other; 6.1%Unknown; 1.5%
Cross-Border Inst'l/Eq Fund Listed/REITs Private User/other Unknown
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* Through Q3 2012Source: Real Capital Analytics
Commercial Real Estate Transactions Volume by Seller Type
Who’s Selling?
$-
$20,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$120,000,000,000
$140,000,000,000
$160,000,000,000
Unknown User/other Private Listed/REITs Inst'l/Eq Fund Cross-Border
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Transaction Volume – by Seller Capital Type
* Through Q3 2012Source: Real Capital Analytics
Cross-Border; 14.4%
Inst'l/Eq Fund; 27.0%
Listed/REITs; 7.3%
Private; 41.6%
User/other; 7.5% Unknown; 2.1%
Cross-Border Inst'l/Eq Fund Listed/REITs Private User/other Unknown
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Annualized Returns by Investment Type
* Through Q3 2012
REITs Equities Real Property
GovernmentBonds
CPI T-Bills0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 Year 10 Years
Annualized Returns, %
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Closing Thoughts : Forecast
* Through Q3 2012
Multi-housing sales activity will lead all sectors and might surpass $100B given the amount of investment capital and lenders’ willingness to lend.
Over $100 billion of multi-housing debt was procured in 2012, of which Fannie & Freddie funded 60%. We expect Fannie & Freddie to increase production by 10 to 12% above the approximate $65 billion completed in 2012, which will be at least 50% of the projected debt volume.
2/3rds of multi-housing sales occurred in the 2H2012
More distressed sales will clear as lenders accept more risk to aid funding deals.
Life companies are expected to increase debt production in the range of 10% for all product types. They will win more Multi-Housing property loans if they reduce their floors in rates.
Conduit issuance for all property types was up in 2012 by 50% to $48 billion. The 2013 consensus volume will be over $60 Billion range. CMBS will be more competitive in Multi-housing sector due to bond buyer demand.
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Closing Thoughts : Forecast
* Through Q3 2012
No change in investor return requirements or cap rates, however, we expect a slight downward pressure in secondary markets as investors search for yield.
Deal flow up in 2013
Capital flows continue to increase in 2013, the bidder list for sales activity will mirror 2012, but will not be as robust as 2011 continuing the trend of the past year.
Investors increase willingness to pay above replacement cost in core markets is a sign that non-core market price increases will occur.
Expect to see new construction to occur in some secondary markets.
Monitor leasing activity. Should the spread for renewals increases above vacant units, then expect future rent growth to be challenged and a correction is possible. Multi-housing is close; still room to expand for Commercial & Industrial properties.
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Real Capital Analytics 3Q 2012 Overall Broker Rankings
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Includes Transactions over $2.5 million
Bill
ions
Broker Volume(M)
1 CBRE $24,938.1
2 Eastdil Secured $16,913.0
3 HFF $9,079.9
4 Cushman & Wakefield $8,670.0
5 Jones Lang LaSalle $6,855.2
6 Marcus & Millichap $5,694.6
7 Apartment Realty Advisors $3,763.5
8 Colliers International $3,001.5
CBRE #1
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Office Property Overview
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Cap Rate Contribution to Value - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Absorption as % of Stock- Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Office Supply History
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Current State of the US Office Market: Supply & Demand
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Average Annual Revenue Growth - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Space Per Worker - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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National Trends - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Flight to Quality - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Vacancy by Area - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Office Rental Trends
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Limited Supply Underway - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Demand by Market - Office
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Office-Using Services Employment Forecast
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Office Transaction Volume – Total Price
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q3 2012
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Office Transaction Volume – Total Units
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q3 2012
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Buyer Composition - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q3 2012
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Seller Composition - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q3 2012
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Q3 YTD 2012 Office Activity by Region
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q3 2012
Volume ($M) YoY Change # Properties YoY Change
Mid-Atlantic $5,151.9 -19% 208 22%
Midwest $4,586.9 31% 240 28%
Northeast $12,092.8 -22% 290 21%
Southeast $5,151.1 30% 382 58%
Southwest $7,452.8 39% 327 34%
West $14,093.4 51% 615 43%
US Other $154.0 N/A 9 N/A
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Most Active Buyers - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics, October 2012
Trailing 12
Rank Buyer Volume (in $mil) Total Properties1 Beacon Capital Partners 2,326 192 Blackstone 1,991 1073 SL Green 1,802 364 Tishman Speyer 1,527 175 JP Morgan 1,356 136 Rockwood Capital 1,268 67 Boston Properties 1,243 48 Jamestown Properties 1,174 89 Amazon 1,160 110 RXR Realty 1,115 311 Goldman Sachs 1,111 1712 Invesco RE 1,040 813 UBS 1,011 314 Brookfield Asset Mgmt 868 615 H&R REIT 858 216 Kilroy Realty 838 917 Ventas Inc 820 7418 GEM Realty Capital, Inc 820 719 Paramount Group 812 320 CommonWealth Partners 794 3
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Most Active Sellers - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics, October 2012
Trailing 12
Rank Seller Volume (in $mil) Total Properties1 Hines 2,138 352 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc 2,013 223 Bank of America 2,006 94 Tishman Speyer 1,806 85 TIAA-CREF 1,799 176 Blackstone 1,684 237 Charter Hall Office REIT 1,624 138 Beacon Capital Partners 1,565 99 Brookfield Asset Mgmt 1,503 910 KBS Realty Advisors 1,295 9211 Schnitzer Investment Corp 1,185 212 JP Morgan 1,182 1113 Vulcan Inc 1,176 214 Monday Properties 1,093 1015 Duke Realty 1,092 8116 BlackRock 1,090 3217 Chetrit Group 1,035 518 CalSTRS 940 919 CalPERS 918 420 Tishman Speyer Office Fund 881 15
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Most Active Markets - Office
Source: Real Capital Analytics, October 2012
Trailing 12
Rank Market Volume (in $mil) Cap Rate1 NYC Metro 15,883 6.19%2 SF Metro 7,277 5.97%3 DC Metro 7,272 5.94%4 LA Metro 5,596 7.27%5 Chicago 4,123 7.09%6 Seattle 3,575 6.36%7 Houston 3,283 7.03%8 Boston 2,954 6.08%9 Dallas 2,056 7.92%10 Atlanta 1,98311 Denver 1,856 7.17%12 San Diego 1,310 7.35%13 Minneapolis 1,29714 Austin 1,21815 So Fla 94116 Charlotte 81617 Phoenix 79018 Philly Metro 60919 Indianapolis 56720 Baltimore 350
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Real Capital Analytics 3Q YTD 2012 Office Broker Rankings
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Includes Transactions over $2.5 million
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Industrial Property Overview
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Cap Rate Contribution to Value - Industrial
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Growth in Industrial Stock as it relates to Inventory
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Growth in Imports and Exports
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Current State of the US Industrial Market: Supply & Demand
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Average Annual Revenue Growth - Industrial
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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National Trends - Industrial
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Real Capital Analytics 3Q YTD 2012 Industrial Broker Rankings
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Includes Transactions over $2.5 million
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Retail Property Overview
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Quarterly US Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: US Department of Commerce, data through Q3 2012
Estimates are based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes
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Store ClosingsUS Announced Store Closings 2001 –Q3 2012
Source: U.S. Retail Real Estate Supply Conditions, PNC Real Estate And ICSC Research
Updated: Q3 2012
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Performance In Past Two Holiday Seasons
Source: Census Bureau
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Modest But Consistent Retail Recovery
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors
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Positive But Below 1% Rent Growth in ‘13 & ‘14
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, updated Q3 2012
%
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Retail Market ObservationsUnited States
Sources: US Census Bureau; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar
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Retail Transaction VolumeBillions ($) Properties – National Data
Source: Real Capital Analytics. Historical Statistics by Year (data through Q3 2012)
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Retail Transaction VolumeBillions ($) Properties – National Data
Source: Real Capital Analytics. Historical Statistics by Year (data through Q3 2012)
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Retail Transaction VolumeBillions ($) Properties – National Data
Source: Real Capital Analytics. Historical Statistics by Year (data through Q3 2012)
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Retail Transaction Volume# of Properties – National Data
Source: Real Capital Analytics. Historical Statistics by Year (data through Q3 2012)
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Seller Composition
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Net Retail Investment (reflects sales through Q3 2012)
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Buyer Composition
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Net Retail Investment (reflects sales through Q3 2012)
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Retail Acquisition by Capital Sector$ Volume (Billions)
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Net Retail Investment (represents activity through Q3 2012)
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Net Retail Acquisitions by Capital Sector$ Volume (Billions)
Source: Real Capital Analytics – Net Retail Investment (data through Q3 2012)
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Cap Rate and Average Price PSF TrendsNon-Mall Properties
Source: Real Capital Analytics – US Volume/Caps/Pricing – Retail Data thru Q3 2012
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Retail Activity by RegionDeals Closed July – September 2012
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Retail Historical Stats by Market – Data through Jul – Sept 2012
Sale($ Millions)
No. ofProperties
Avg.Price/SF
Avg.Cap Rate
Mid-Atlantic $943 75 $126 7.00%
Midwest $737 103 $88 7.60%
Northeast $1,958 153 $408 6.60%
Southeast $1,582 195 $115 8.00%
Southwest $1,791 176 $142 7.30%
West $2,213 217 $195 6.80%
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Retail Volume & PricingNon-Mall: July – September 2012
Source: Real Capital Analytics (data through July – Sept 2012)
Volume($ Millions)
No. ofProperties
Avg. Price($ Millions)
Avg. CapRate
Avg.Price/SF
Unanchored $888 178 $4.99 7.80% $118
Grocery Anchored $1,709 127 $13.46 7.50% $151
Other Anchored $1,087 74 $14.69 7.90% $115
Power Center $958 24 $39.92 7.40% $156
Total Non-Mall $4,642 403 $11.52 - $117
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Most Active BuyersUS – Retail – Past 12 Months
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Top Players and Markets – Data from December 12, 2012
Rank Buyer $ Millions Total Properties1 Simon Property Group 4,360 362 CPP Investment Board 2,057 113 Macerich 1,937 104 DDR 1,788 545 Blackstone 1,702 636 Cole RE Investments 1,256 3087 Vornado Realty Trust 1,200 58 Starwood Capital Group 999 79 Inland Real Estate Group 910 6410 CalPERS 539 211 Taubman Centers 525 212 General Growth Properties 506 1713 Kimco Realty Corp 500 1514 Winthrop Realty Trust 436 215 Maefield Development 430 116 Witkoff Group 430 117 Infinity Group 430 118 Vector Group 430 119 RioCan REIT 402 3020 Glimcher Realty Trust 392 3
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Most Active SellersUS – Retail – Past 12 Months
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Top Players and - Data from December 12, 2012
Rank Seller $ Millions Total Properties1 Farallon Capital Partners 3,915 262 Westfield Group 3,224 203 Vornado Realty Trust 1,431 114 Elbit Imaging Ltd 1,429 485 Macquarie Group 1,429 486 Crown Acquisitions 1,268 37 Alexanders Inc 1,251 28 Carlyle Group 707 19 Kushner Companies 707 110 Davis Street Land 525 211 General Motors Pension 500 112 Regency Centers 478 2413 Kimco Realty Corp 444 2214 Macerich 437 1515 Simon Property Group 433 1016 Vimar Realty Corp 430 117 Safeway Inc 408 2518 Blackstone 403 819 Lightstone Group 395 520 General Growth Properties 393 9
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Most Active MarketsUS – Retail – Past 12 Months
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Top Players and Markets - Data from December 12, 2012
Rank Market $ Millions Cap Rate1 NYC Metro 6,827 5.7%2 LA Metro 3,751 6.8%3 Chicago 2,588 6.9%4 SF Metro 2,244 6.3%5 So Fla 1,636 7.4%6 Phoenix 1,3077 Dallas 1,297 8.2%8 DC Metro 1,270 6.5%9 Nashville 1,131
10 Seattle 1,011 6.2%11 San Diego 92212 Boston 84613 Hawaii 80714 Houston 71915 Denver 71316 Orlando 65517 Baltimore 64118 Atlanta 57119 Philly Metro 56620 Minneapolis 555
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Broker RankingsNational Data
Source: Real Capital Analytics, data through Q1 2012
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$V
olu
me
(Bill
ion
s)
CBRE Eastdil M&M HFF C & W JLL
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Cap Rates by MarketNon-Mall Properties
Source: Real Capital Analytics. Data through Q3 2012
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Average Annual Revenue Growth - Retail
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
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Core Growth Trending Slightly Below LT Average
Source: Census Bureau
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Taking a Bite Out of Brick and Mortar Sales
Source: Census Bureau
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Low Completions in the Forecast
Source: CBRE Economic Advisors
![Page 115: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
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Availability Rates: Still Elevated but on the Right Path
Source: CBRE Economic Advisors
![Page 116: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
CBRE | Page 116
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Most Large Markets Still Have High Availability Rates
Source: CBRE Economic Advisors
![Page 117: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
Multi-Housing Property Overview
![Page 118: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
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Average Annual Revenue Growth
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.001.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2.69%
3.28%
2.75%
3.40%
2.85%
3.91%
3.60%
5.19%
2.74%
4.89%
2.46%
3.74%
2.89%
2.65%
3.20%
2.08%
3.36%
3.50%
2.34%
3.43%
2.81%
2.47%
3.99%3.89%
3.00%
4.75%
3.45%
1.62%
2.71%
2.16%
2.89%2.79%
2.94%
Avera
ge A
nn
ual R
even
ue G
row
th
%
Transaction Cap Rate, %
![Page 119: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
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Average Annual Top Line Revenue Growth per Unit 5-Yr Forecast
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4.5
3.0
4.3
3.7
3.2
1.7
3.5
2.93.1
4.9
3.5
2.5
4.0
3.33.5
5.4
2.7 2.7 2.6
1.9
4.1
3.0
4.0
1.9
3.1
4.14.3
2.72.4
4.84.6
2.2
5.3
3.3 Sacramento
4.2
3.7
6.1
3.0
3.6
Axis Title
Avg Annual Top Line Revenue Growth Per Unit 5Yr Forecast
Multi-Family Cap Rate (%), Class A Stabilized
![Page 120: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
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Cap Rate Contribution to Value – Multi-Housing
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Cap Rate Contribution NOI Growth Appreciation
YOY Growth, %
Forecast
![Page 121: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
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Vacancy Rate Expected to Remain Near Lows Through 2016
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Completions Net Absorption Vacancy Rate
Absorption and Completions, Units x 1,000 Vacancy Rate, %
Forecast
![Page 122: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
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National Trends
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Price Per Unit Cap Rate
Price Per Unit, $1,000 Cap Rate, %
![Page 123: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
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Cap Rate Forecast
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2012
1993
.1
1993
.4
1994
.3
1995
.2
1996
.1
1996
.4
1997
.3
1998
.2
1999
.1
1999
.4
2000
.3
2001
.2
2002
.1
2002
.4
2003
.3
2004
.2
2005
.1
2005
.4
2006
.3
2007
.2
2008
.1
2008
.4
2009
.3
2010
.2
2011
.1
2011
.4
2012
.3
2013
.2
2014
.1
2014
.4
2015
.3
2016
.2
2017
.1
2017
.4
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00Multi-Housing
Appraisal Cap rate, %
![Page 124: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
CBRE | Page 124
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BPS Spread to Ten Year Treasury
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Multi-Housing
BPS Spread to Ten Year Treasury
Forecast
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2012
![Page 125: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
CBRE | Page 125
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Cap Rate Trends
1985.41987.31989.21991.11992.41994.31996.21998.11999.42001.32003.22005.12006.42008.32010.22012.15
6
7
8
9
10
11Multi-Housing
Transaction Cap Rate, %
Source: Real Capital Analytics, CBRE-EA
![Page 126: CBRE Capital Markets Investment Properties - Debt & Equity Finance Kevin L. Randles Senior Vice President kevin.randles@cbre.com January 25, 2013 The Appraisal.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070412/56649e675503460f94b62401/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
CBRE | Page 126
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Real Capital Analytics 2012 Multi-Housing Broker Rankings
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Through 3Q12; Includes Transactions over $2.5 million
CBRE Apartment Realty
Advisors
HFF Marcus & Millichap
Cushman & Wakefield
Moran & Co Eastdil Secured
Jones Lang LaSalle
Engler Financial
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
YTD Q312 US Apartment Investment SalesAs reported by Real Capital Analytics