19 July 20171QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials

Canara Bank BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR371 TP: INR360 (-3%) Neutral 31,955 9,900

Bloomberg CBK IN Equity Shares (m) 543.0 M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 148.0/2.2 52-Week Range (INR) 415 / 231 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 2/16/32 Avg. Val, INRm 1192 Free float (%) 33.7

Financials & Valuations (INR b) Y/E March 2018E 2019E 2020E NII 113.0 124.5 144.1 OP 93.4 99.7 116.3 NP 18.0 28.1 37.2 EPS (INR) 30.1 47.0 62.3 EPS Gr. (%) 60.1 56.4 32.5 BV/Sh. (INR) 498 540 595 RoE (%) 6.2 9.1 11.0 RoA (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5 P/E (x) 12.3 7.9 6.0 P/BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6

Slippages remain elevated; One off gains help PPoP Canara Bank’s (CBK) PBT declined 18% YoY to INR2.7b, missing our estimate by

~68% due to elevated provisions of INR22.0b (57% higher than our estimate).Loan growth stood muted at 8% YoY due to 11% YoY decline in infra loans (13% of advances), despite retail/SME loans growing 8%/12% YoY.

Reported NIM expanded 11bps QoQ to 2.34% (domestic NIM at 2.56%). NIIgrew 0%/18% QoQ/YoY. Adjusting for INR1.25b of interest on IT refund in4QFY17, NII grew 5% QoQ. 1QFY18 NII had INR800-900m of interest reversals.

Gross slippages of INR55b (+78% QoQ) had INR7.92b contribution fromdemonetization moratorium and ~INR27.2b from 3-4 bulky corporate accounts. Absolute GNPA increased 10% QoQ to INR377b, while GNPA/NNPA stood at10.56%/7.09% (+93bp/+76bp QoQ). Total stressed book stood at 14% ofadvances.

Other highlights: (a) Non-interest income grew 33% YoY, aided by gain onCARE stake sale and INR1.3b of PSLC sales income. (b) CET1 ratio/tier 1ratio/CAR stood at 8.72%/9.57%/12.61%.

Valuation and view: Net stress addition has increased after a few quarters ofdecline. Given the weak operating environment, we would wait and watchdevelopments in asset quality. Our SOTP-based target price stands at INR360(0.5x June 2019E BV + INR70 for other investments); we have lowered ourvaluation multiple slightly from 0.6x FY19E BV last quarter due to prolongedprovisioning pressure. Maintain Neutral.

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2017 for

India Research, Sales and Trading team. We request your ballot.

Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526 Subham Banka (Subham.Banka@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1567 /

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance: Provisions more than offset PPOP (INR m) Y/E March 1QFY18A 1QFY18E Var. (%) Comments Net Interest Income 27,132 25,759 5 NII beat driven by higher than expected drop in cost

of funds % Change (YoY) 18 12 Other Income 21,085 19,442 8 Net Income 48,218 45,200 7 Operating Expenses 23,494 22,708 3 Operating Profit 24,724 22,492 10 % Change (YoY) 36 24

Other Provisions 22,038 14,000 57 Additional provisions of INR4b for NCLT accounts and higher stress additions

Profit before Tax 2,686 8,492 -68Tax Provisions 170 2,632 -94Net Profit 2,516 5,859 -57 Core income largely inline; Elevated provisions drag

profitability % Change (YoY) 10 156 Source: MOSL, Company

Other highlights Asset quality declines further; total stressed loans at 14% of advances GNPA/NNPA at 10.56%/7.09% increased 93bp/76bp QoQ. SDR/S4A/5:25/OSRL

stood at 1.9%/0.7%/1.8%/2.3%. PCR stood at 54.52% (-110bp QoQ). Totalstressed loans stood at 13.8% of advances v/s 12% in 4QFY17.

Gross slippages of INR55.1b (+78%/-16% QoQ/YoY) included INR 7.92b fromdemonetization-related moratorium and ~INR27b from 3-4 large accounts(steel, EPC and others). Net slippages of INR48.3b stood at 5.7% (annualized) ofadvances.

Loan book growth sluggish, but moving in the right direction Total loan book growth was muted at 2%/8% QoQ/YoY owing to slowdown in

infrastructure book (-6%/-11% QOQ/YoY), even as retail loan book grew 3%/8%QoQ/YoY and SME book rose 1%/12% QoQ/YoY.

Infrastructure book decline was led by 24%/52% QoQ/YoY fall in airport and10%/19% QoQ/YoY decline in power.

Total retail loan book grew 3%/8% QoQ/YoY, led by housing/vehicle loan growthof 18%/22% YoY.

CASA and retail term deposits together constitute 72% of total deposits, leadingto comfort on cost of funds.

CASA deposits growth was strong at 16% YoY (flat QoQ). SA deposits grew 17%YoY. Reported CASA ratio improved 29bp to 33.1% v/s 32.9% a quarter ago.

Others Total branch count stood at 6,075 at end-4QFY17 (+111 branches QoQ).

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 3

4QFY17 conference call highlights

Balance sheet related Margins should moderately improve from here.

P/L related PSLC income at INR1.3b in 1QFY18 (recurring). Other income had INR4b of one-off treasury income. Interest reversal – INR800-900m in 1QFY18

Asset quality Additional provisions of INR4b for NCLT cases. Slippages breakup: Normal slippages of INR20.02b, INR7.92b of one-time

slippages for demonetization moratorium, and the rest from 3-4 large accountsfrom steel, infra and EPC.

Total exposure to 12 NCLT accounts is INR102b, should be resolved by Mar ’18. Stressed assets breakup: 5:25 – INR64b (std.), SDR – INR87b (std., out of this

INR20b in restructured), std. OSRL – INR80b (~50% of EPC contractors, sometextile and steel), S4A – INR25b (added 4.3b in the quarter, no overlap withOSRL), SMA2 – INR116b (INR30b of which is restructured accounts, andoverdues are INR16.34b).

INR900m more expected to be recovered from cement account. Total provision of INR56b needed for NCLT accounts; already provided INR39b

(of which INR4b in 1QFY18), remaining ~INR18b through FY18. PCR – they aim to improve 2-3% every year. Recoveries + upgrades – smaller accounts are giving good results. Target normalized slippages of INR20-25b per quarter; expect additional

slippages from restructured book. Telecom portfolio – will provide 2% std. provisions every quarter.

Valuation and view Over the last six years, CBK’s profitability has declined significantly, led by

compression in core revenues and higher provisioning costs. Net stress addition has increased over the last several quarters. Improvement in the economic environment remains the key.

1QFY18 PPoP had a contribution from trading gains (stake sale of CARE),indicating sustained pressure on PPoP growth.

The RBI has allowed various tools apart from normal restructuring (5:25, SDR,S4A, sale to ARC-leading to security receipts etc.) to tackle the stress loans.Hence, actual overall stress loans have been significantly higher than reportedNNPAs.

Difference between reported BV and ABV (NNPA at 70%) is high at ~50%. Untilthe improvement in economic growth and resolution of key sectors problems(infra and iron & steel) come through, the markets would focus on adjustedP/BV.

We maintain Neutral with an SOTP-based TP of INR380. We have cut PATestimates by ~16.8%/4.5% for FY18/FY19. Despite attractive valuations, giventhe challenging operating environment, we would wait and watch developments

Maintain Neutral rating with target price of INR360

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 4

on asset quality. Our key assumptions are a) risk-free rate of 6.9%, b) risk premium of 5%, c) beta of 1.6x, d) average growth of ~15% over FY16-36E, and e) terminal growth rate of 5%. In view of prolonged stress additions andprovision pressure, we have decreased the target multiple slightly from 0.6xFY19E BV to 0.5x of June 2019E BV. Subsidiaries add INR70 (19%) to our SOTP.

Exhibit 2: Our SOTP is INR360 Stake Total Value Value per share % of Total Rationale

Banking Business (A) 290 81 0.5x June 2019 BV; Based on RI Total Value of Key ventures 88 24

Canfin Homes 31 83,455 47 13 Latest MCAP Canara HSBC 51 40,000 38 10 Based on peer valuation Canara Robecco 51 3 1 Valued at 4% of AUM

Less: Holdco discount 18 5 Value of Key Ventures (B) 70 19 SOTP (A+B) 360 100 CMP 371 Upside -3

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 3: We cut FY18/19 PAT estimates with an increase in provision estimates

INR b Old Est Revised Est Change (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20

Net Interest Income 107.5 122.9 141.4 113.0 124.5 144.1 5.1 1.3 1.9 Other Income 73.9 77.8 85.1 73.9 78.3 86.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 Total Income 181.4 200.8 226.6 186.9 202.9 230.2 3.0 1.0 1.6 Operating Expenses 93.5 103.2 113.9 93.5 103.2 113.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating Profits 87.9 97.6 112.6 93.4 99.7 116.3 6.3 2.1 3.2 Provisions 56.6 55.0 57.8 67.4 59.0 62.3 19.0 7.3 7.8 PBT 31.3 42.6 54.8 26.0 40.7 54.0 -16.8 -4.5 -1.6Tax 9.7 13.2 17.0 8.1 12.6 16.7 -16.8 -4.5 -1.6PAT 21.6 29.4 37.8 18.0 28.1 37.2 -16.8 -4.5 -1.6Loans 3,762 4,214 4,803 3,762 4,214 4,803 0.0 0.0 0.0 Deposits 5,547 6,324 7,272 5,547 6,324 7,272 0.0 0.0 0.0 Margins (%) 1.92 1.96 1.98 2.02 1.99 2.02 Credit Cost (%) 1.50 1.30 1.20 1.80 1.40 1.30 RoA (%) 0.35 0.43 0.48 0.29 0.41 0.47 RoE (%) 7.5 9.4 11.1 6.2 9.1 11.0 BV 500 543 599 498 540 595 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8ABV 279 347 422 246 302 386 -12.0 -13.0 -8.5EPS 36 49 63 30 47 62 -16.8 -4.5 -1.6

Source: MOSL, Company

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 5

Exhibit 4: Expect return ratios to improve gradually (%) Y/E MARCH FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Interest Income 2.17 2.00 1.98 1.86 1.77 1.74 1.83 1.80 1.83 Fee income 0.51 0.44 0.48 0.43 0.47 0.55 0.59 0.60 0.61 Fee to core Income (%) 19.0 17.8 19.6 18.8 21.1 24.0 24.3 25.1 25.0 Core Income 2.67 2.44 2.46 2.29 2.25 2.28 2.42 2.40 2.44 Operating Expenses 1.32 1.31 1.34 1.40 1.36 1.50 1.52 1.49 1.45 Cost to Core Income 49.2 53.6 54.7 61.0 60.6 65.6 62.6 62.0 59.3 Employee cost 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.82 0.81 0.86 0.85 0.80 0.75 Other operating expenses 0.48 0.48 0.53 0.57 0.55 0.63 0.67 0.69 0.70 Core operating Profits 1.36 1.13 1.11 0.89 0.89 0.79 0.91 0.91 0.99 Trading and others 0.32 0.37 0.39 0.44 0.41 0.78 0.61 0.53 0.48 Operating Profits 1.67 1.50 1.50 1.34 1.30 1.57 1.52 1.44 1.48 Provisions 0.52 0.56 0.83 0.66 1.88 1.28 1.09 0.85 0.79 NPA provisions 0.36 0.47 0.47 0.73 1.75 1.31 1.05 0.81 0.75 Other Provisions 0.16 0.09 0.35 -0.06 0.13 -0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 PBT 1.15 0.93 0.68 0.67 -0.58 0.29 0.42 0.59 0.69 Tax 0.23 0.20 0.14 0.15 -0.07 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.21

Tax Rate 19.6 21.8 20.4 22.7 11.7 31.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 RoA 0.92 0.73 0.54 0.52 -0.51 0.20 0.29 0.41 0.47 Leverage (x) 18.5 18.2 19.4 20.7 21.1 21.0 21.3 22.3 23.2 RoE 17.1 13.3 10.5 10.8 -10.8 4.2 6.2 9.1 11.0

Source: MOSL, Company

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 6

Story in charts

Exhibit 5: Loan growth remained muted YoY (%)

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 6: CASA deposits grew 16% QoQ

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 7: Reported global NIM increased 11bp QoQ

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 8: Credit costs declined this quarter (%)

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 9: GNPA/NNPA went up QoQ

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 10: NNPA + OSRL stood at 9.4% (%)

Source: Company, MOSL

2,4

99

2,8

11

2,8

77

3,0

11

3,0

30

3,1

09

3,1

23

3,3

00

3,2

41

3,2

31

3,3

19

3,2

47

3,2

13

3,2

71

3,3

16

3,4

20

3,4

82

11

30 32 24 21

11 9 10 7 4 6(2) (1) 1 (0)

5 8

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

9MFY

16

FY16

1QFY

17

1HFY

17

9MFY

17

FY17

1QFY

18

Loans (INR b) YoY gr. (%)

23 24 23 25 23 23 23 24 23 24 24 26 28 27 30 30 31

13 14 1620

11 9 11 10 12 12 12 9

17 14

30 21

16

1QFY

141H

FY14

9MFY

14FY

141Q

FY15

1HFY

159M

FY15

FY15

1QFY

161H

FY16

9MFY

16FY

161Q

FY17

1HFY

179M

FY17

FY17

1QFY

18

CASA Ratio (calc,%) CASA YoY gr. (%)

2.2 2.2

2.2

2.3 2.

3

2.2

2.2 2.3

2.2 2.

2

2.2

2.2

2.2 2.

2

2.2 2.

2

2.3

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

9MFY

16

FY16

1QFY

17

1HFY

17

9MFY

17

FY17

1QFY

18

0.7

0.5 0.8 1.1 1.

5

1.2

1.2

1.0 1.

6

1.2 1.7

7.2

1.8 1.9

1.8

3.5

2.6

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3QFY

16

4QFY

16

1QFY

17

2QFY

17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

2.9

2.6

2.8 2.

5 2.

7 2.9 3.4 3.

9

4.0 4.3 5.

8

9.4 9.7

9.8 10.0

9.6 10

.6

2.5 2.3

2.4

2.0

2.0 2.3

2.4 2.7

2.7 2.9 3.

9

6.4 6.7

6.7

6.7

6.3 7.

1

1QFY

141H

FY14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

9MFY

16

FY16

1QFY

17

1HFY

17

9MFY

17

FY17

1QFY

18

Gross NPA (%) Net NPA (%)

2.5

2.3

2.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.9 3.9 6.

4

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.3 7.1

6.9

6.4

6.4

6.7

6.9

6.6

6.6 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.

2 4.0 4.2

4.0

3.6

3.3 2.3

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3QFY

16

4QFY

16

1QFY

17

2QFY

17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

NNPA (%) OSRL (%)

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 7

Exhibit 11: Quarterly snapshot FY16 FY17 FY18 Variation (%)

INR m 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q QoQ YoY Profit and Loss Net Interest Income 25,165 26,465 22,266 23,738 23,074 24,424 24,138 27,082 27,132 0 18 Other Income 11,130 12,105 11,686 13,832 15,847 17,818 17,917 23,963 21,085 -12 33

Trading profits 1,980 2,950 1,610 3,360 6,070 5,030 7,470 11,250 8,840 -21 46 Forex Income 1,020 1,650 2,090 1,930 2,760 3,170 2,640 1,140 1,340 18 -51Recoveries 2,100 1,610 1,410 960 500 1,610 910 1,870 1,830 -2 266 Core Fees 6,030 5,895 6,576 7,582 6,517 8,008 6,897 9,703 9,075 -6 39

Total Income 36,295 38,570 33,952 37,570 38,921 42,241 42,055 51,045 48,218 -6 24 Operating Expenses 16,259 19,129 18,427 21,104 20,732 20,834 22,242 21,316 23,494 10 13

Employee 10,588 11,078 10,398 12,395 12,082 12,169 13,057 11,842 13,518 14 12 Others 5,672 8,050 8,030 8,709 8,650 8,664 9,184 9,473 9,976 5 15

Operating Profits 20,036 19,441 15,524 16,466 18,189 21,408 19,813 29,729 24,724 -17 36 Provisions 13,597 12,123 14,289 63,315 14,929 15,857 14,846 27,087 22,038 -19 48

NPA provisions 13,140 9,790 14,320 58,830 14,690 15,580 14,870 29,240 22,700 -22 55 Provisions on Invst. 1,330 640 1,550 -850 170 150 850 450 910 102 435 Others -873 1,693 -1,582 5,335 69 127 -874 -2,603 -1,572 -40 -2372

PBT 6,438 7,318 1,236 -46,850 3,260 5,550 4,968 2,642 2,686 2 -18Taxes 1,650 2,029 386 -7,795 970 1,981 1,749 500 170 -66 -82PAT 4,788 5,289 850 -39,055 2,290 3,569 3,219 2,142 2,516 17 10 Asset Quality GNPA 1,30,806 1,40,213 1,98,134 3,16,378 3,23,341 3,33,154 3,43,387 3,42,020 3,76,578 10 16 NNPA 88,881 93,825 1,29,401 2,08,329 2,14,939 2,18,871 2,22,958 2,16,490 2,43,006 12 13 GNPA (%) 4.0 4.3 5.8 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.6 10.6 10 9 NNPA (%) 2.7 2.9 3.9 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.3 7.1 12 6 PCR (Calculated, %) 32.1 33.1 34.7 34.2 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.7 35.5 163 255 PCR (Reported, %) 59.0 59.8 54.0 50.1 50.8 51.8 52.5 55.6 54.5 -2 7 Slippages 25,190 22,010 54,020 1,46,020 38,780 24,490 22,250 31,000 55,110 78 42 Slippage Ratio (%) 3.3 2.8 6.9 17.7 4.8 3.0 2.7 3.8 6.9 80 43 Restructured loans* 2,30,370 2,28,910 2,06,080 1,30,633 1,33,801 1,31,470 1,20,001 1,13,650 80,000 -30 -40 % to Loans 7.1 7.1 6.2 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.3 -30 -70Ratios (%) Fees to Total Income 16.6 15.3 19.4 20.2 16.7 19.0 16.4 19.0 18.8 Cost to Core Income 52.1 59.1 63.9 67.4 70.1 64.2 71.7 57.9 64.9 Tax Rate 25.6 27.7 31.2 16.6 29.8 35.7 35.2 18.9 6.3 CASA (cal) 23.2 23.9 24.1 25.7 27.6 27.2 30.1 30.2 30.7 Loan/Deposit 68.7 66.6 67.7 67.7 69.0 67.5 65.0 69.1 71.7 CAR 10.8 11.0 11.5 11.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.9 12.6 Tier I 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.8 9.6 Margins - cumulative (%) Yield on loans 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.2 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.4 -17 -17Yield On Investments 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.3 7.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 14 14 Cost of Deposits 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.8 -42 -42Margins 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2 2 Balance sheet (INR b) Loans 3,241 3,231 3,319 3,247 3,213 3,271 3,316 3,420 3,482 2 8 Retail Loans 420 445 484 541 562 545 550 589 608 3 8 Deposits 4,719 4,852 4,906 4,798 4,653 4,843 5,103 4,953 4,859 -2 4 CASA Deposits 1,097 1,160 1,181 1,235 1,283 1,317 1,537 1,497 1,491 0 16 Savings Deposits 921 967 989 1,037 1,078 1,111 1,321 1,272 1,266 0 17 Current Deposits 175 193 192 198 204 207 216 226 225 0 10

Source: MOSL, Company

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 8

Financials and Valuations

Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Interest Income 78,790 89,442 96,637 97,634 98,718 1,13,042 1,24,534 1,44,077 Change (%) 2.5 13.5 8.0 1.0 1.1 14.5 10.2 15.7 Non Interest Income 31,530 39,328 45,503 48,752 75,544 73,885 78,342 86,118 Net Income 1,10,320 1,28,770 1,42,139 1,46,386 1,74,262 1,86,926 2,02,876 2,30,195 Change (%) 3.9 16.7 10.4 3.0 19.0 7.3 8.5 13.5 Operating Expenses 51,420 60,810 72,636 74,919 85,123 93,531 1,03,180 1,13,917 Pre Provision Profits 58,900 67,960 69,504 71,467 89,140 93,395 99,696 1,16,277 Change (%) -0.9 15.4 2.3 2.8 24.7 4.8 6.7 16.6 Provisions (excl tax) 22,179 37,330 34,527 1,03,324 72,720 67,358 58,985 62,320 PBT 36,721 30,630 34,976 -31,858 16,420 26,038 40,711 53,957 Tax 8,000 6,250 7,950 -3,730 5,200 8,072 12,620 16,727 Tax Rate (%) 21.8 20.4 22.7 11.7 31.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 PAT 28,721 24,380 27,026 -28,128 11,220 17,966 28,090 37,230 Change (%) -12.5 -15.1 10.9 -204.1 -139.9 60.1 56.4 32.5 Pref. Dividend (Incl tax) - - - - - - - - Profits for Equity SH 28,721 24,380 27,026 -28,128 11,220 17,966 28,090 37,230 Change (%) -12.5 -15.1 10.9 -204.1 -139.9 60.1 56.4 32.5 Equity Dividend (Incl tax) 6,740 5,936 6,517 0 719 2,093 3,273 4,337 Core PPP* 44,488 50,376 46,392 48,797 44,715 55,894 63,195 78,276 Change (%) -7.6 13.2 -7.9 5.2 -8.4 25.0 13.1 23.9 *Core PPP is (NII+Fee income-Opex)

Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Equity Share Capital 4,430 4,613 4,752 5,430 5,973 5,973 5,973 5,973 Reserves & Surplus 2,44,348 2,91,589 3,13,840 3,10,602 3,30,883 3,46,040 3,70,143 4,02,321 Net Worth 2,48,778 2,96,201 3,18,592 3,16,032 3,36,855 3,52,013 3,76,116 4,08,294 Deposits 35,58,560 42,07,228 47,38,401 47,97,916 49,52,760 55,47,091 63,23,684 72,72,237 Change (%) 8.8 18.2 12.6 1.3 3.2 12.0 14.0 15.0 of which CASA Dep 8,60,613 10,32,794 11,35,322 12,35,422 14,97,490 17,22,114 19,80,431 22,77,495 Change (%) 8.1 20.0 9.9 8.8 21.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 Borrowings 2,02,834 2,72,306 2,56,716 2,68,733 3,95,036 4,27,551 4,64,372 5,06,086 Other Liabilities & Prov. 1,13,255 1,43,483 1,66,297 1,46,927 1,50,551 1,65,536 1,82,321 2,01,157 Total Liabilities 41,23,426 49,19,219 54,80,006 55,29,608 58,35,202 64,92,191 73,46,492 83,87,774 Current Assets 3,47,147 4,48,287 4,86,411 5,67,337 5,88,255 6,53,868 7,71,008 8,95,025 Investments 12,11,328 12,68,283 14,20,614 14,23,093 15,02,659 17,28,058 19,87,266 22,85,356 Change (%) 18.7 4.7 12.0 0.2 5.6 15.0 15.0 15.0 Loans 24,21,766 30,10,675 33,00,355 32,47,148 34,20,088 37,62,096 42,13,548 48,03,445 Change (%) 4.2 24.3 9.6 -1.6 5.3 10.0 12.0 14.0 Fixed Assets 28,627 66,416 69,494 71,981 71,683 70,408 69,132 67,857 Other Assets 1,14,557 1,25,558 2,03,131 2,20,049 2,52,510 2,77,761 3,05,537 3,36,091 Total Assets 41,23,426 49,19,219 54,80,006 55,29,608 58,35,194 64,92,191 73,46,492 83,87,774 Asset Quality (%) GNPA (INR M) 62,602 75,702 1,30,399 3,16,380 3,42,020 3,70,681 3,62,948 3,44,529 NNPA (INR M) 52,780 59,654 87,862 2,08,928 2,17,831 2,31,852 2,18,290 1,91,260 GNPA Ratio 2.58 2.50 3.90 9.43 9.65 9.50 8.33 6.95 NNPA Ratio 2.18 1.98 2.66 6.43 6.37 6.16 5.18 3.98 Slippage Ratio 2.50 3.49 3.61 7.49 3.59 3.50 2.70 2.30 Credit Cost 0.78 0.79 1.20 2.93 2.23 1.80 1.40 1.30 PCR (Excl Tech. write off) 15.7 21.2 32.6 34.0 36.3 37.5 39.9 44.5 PCR (Incl Tech. Write off) 61.4 60.1 57.3 50.1 55.6 57.4 61.1 66.3 E: MOSL Estimates

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 9

Financials and Valuations

Ratios Y/E March 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Spreads Analysis (%)

Avg. Yield-Earning Assets 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.6 Avg. Yield on loans 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.6 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.5 Avg. Yield on Investments 8.2 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab. 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.5 Avg. Cost of Deposits 7.4 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.5 Interest Spread 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Net Interest Margin 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Profitability Ratios (%)

RoE 13.3 10.5 10.8 -10.8 4.2 6.2 9.1 11.0 RoA 0.73 0.54 0.52 -0.51 0.20 0.3 0.4 0.5 Int. Expense/Int.Income 76.9 77.4 77.9 77.8 76.1 74.3 73.9 73.6 Fee Income/Net Income 16.3 13.3 15.3 15.3 15.0 16.6 17.9 18.2 Non Int. Inc./Net Income 28.6 30.5 32.0 33.3 43.4 39.5 38.6 37.4 Efficiency Ratios (%)

Cost/Income* 49.7 49.8 55.6 54.9 58.9 56.7 56.2 54.0 Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 63.3 60.4 58.8 59.3 57.7 55.8 53.9 52.0 Busi. per Empl. (INR m) 135.6 136.1 141.3 144.7 142.2 144.8 154.2 167.0 NP per Empl. (INR lac) 6.7 5.0 5.0 -5.1 1.9 2.9 4.4 5.5 * ex treasury Asset-Liability Profile (%)

Loans/Deposit Ratio 68.1 71.6 69.7 67.7 69.1 67.8 66.6 66.1 CASA Ratio 24.2 24.5 24.0 25.7 30.2 31.0 31.3 31.3 Investment/Deposit Ratio 34.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 30.3 31.2 31.4 31.4 G-Sec/Investment Ratio 84.2 84.8 88.4 89.2 90.3 80.3 79.6 79.6 CAR 12.4 10.6 10.2 11.1 11.8 10.3 9.7 9.1 Tier 1 9.8 7.7 7.6 8.8 9.4 8.3 7.9 7.5

Valuation 555.12428 Book Value (INR) 513.4 518.1 552.5 477.2 471.4 498.0 539.5 594.6 Change (%) 10.7 0.9 6.6 -13.6 -1.2 5.6 8.3 10.2 Price-BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 Adjusted BV (INR) 436.0 434.1 432.4 227.1 234.4 245.7 302.0 386.5 Price-ABV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 EPS (INR) 64.8 52.9 56.9 -51.8 18.8 30.1 47.0 62.3 Change (%) -12.5 -18.5 7.6 -191.1 -136.3 60.1 56.4 32.5 Price-Earnings (x) 5.7 7.0 6.5 -7.2 19.8 12.3 7.9 6.0 Dividend Per Share (INR) 13.0 11.0 10.5 0.0 1.0 3.0 4.7 6.2 Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.0 2.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 E: MOSL Estimates

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 10

Corporate profile Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased

Source: MOSL/Bloomberg

Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%)

Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16

Promoter 66.3 66.3 66.3

DII 21.3 21.2 19.6

FII 5.9 5.3 6.2

Others 6.5 7.2 7.9

Note: FII Includes depository receipts Source: Capitaline

Exhibit 3: Top holders Holder Name % Holding

LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF INDIA 13.6

HDFC TRUSTEE COMPANY LIMITED 4.3

RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO LTD 1.5

Source: Capitaline

Exhibit 4: Top management

Name Designation Thothala Narayanasamy Manoharan Chairman (Non-Executive)

Rakesh Sharma Managing Director & CEO

Dina Bandhu Mohapatra Executive Director

Harideesh Kumar B Executive Director

Pradyuman Singh Rawat Executive Director

B Nagesh Babu Company Secretary

Source: Capitaline

Exhibit 5: Directors Name Name

G V Manimaran Sanjay Jain

Sairam Mocherla Sunil Hukumchand Kocheta

Rajinder Kumar Goel Pankaj Jain

Uma Shankar

*Independent

Exhibit 6: Auditors Name Type

J L Sengupta & Co Statutory

J Singh & Associates Statutory

Ram Raj & Co Statutory

S C Vasudeva & Co Statutory

V K Niranjan & Co Statutory Source: Capitaline

Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS (INR)

MOSL forecast

Consensus forecast

Variation (%)

FY18 30.1 31.0 -2.8

FY19 47.0 46.8 0.4

FY20 62.3 45.6 36.5

Source: Bloomberg

Company description Set up in 1906, Canara Bank (CBK) it one of the oldest banks in the India. The government nationalized the bank in 1969. Over the years bank has made several acquisitions, major one being Lakshmi Commercial Bank which gave significant presence in northern India. As of September 2016, the bank had a network of 5,868 branches and 10,026 ATMs spread across India. The bank also has several overseas branches and subsidiaries / joint ventures (Can Fin Homes Limited, Canara Robeco AMC, Canara HSBC Oriental Life Insurance Company amongst others).

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 11

N O T E S

Canara Bank

19 July 2017 12

Disclosures

This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company (ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.

MOSt and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationships with a some companies covered by our Research Department. Our research professionals may provide input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors should assume that MOSt and/or its affiliates are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research professionals who were involved in preparing this material may educate investors on investments in such business . The research professionals responsible for the preparation of this document may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other parties for the purpose of gathering, applying and interpreting information. Our research professionals are paid on twin parameters of performance & profitability of MOSt. MOSt generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, MOSt generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. MOSt and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the affiliates of MOSt even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts company's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamental analysis. In addition MOST has different business segments / Divisions with independent research separated by Chinese walls catering to different set of customers having various objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc, and therefore may at times have different contrary views on stocks sectors and markets.

Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays. The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. Any statements contained in this report attributed to a third party represent MOSt’s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. This Report is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.

This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.

Most and it’s associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities, may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services, may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. Most and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. Subject Company may have been a client of Most or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report

MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise of over 1 % at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.

Motilal Oswal Securities Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412

Pending Regulatory inspections against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited: SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL replied to the Show Cause Notice whereby SEBI granted us an opportunity of Inspection of Documents. Since all the documents requested by us were not covered we have requested to SEBI vide our letter dated June 23, 2015 to provide pending list of documents for inspection.

List of associate companies of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited -Click here to access detailed report

Analyst Certification The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues Disclosure of Interest Statement CANARA BANAK Analyst ownership of the stock No Served as an officer, director or employee No

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes

Regional Disclosures (outside India) This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

For Hong Kong: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Kong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.

This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.

In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited: Varun Kumar Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com Contact : (+65) 68189232 Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025

Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com