Canada’s Monthly GDP Growth Beats FORECASTER - CANADA #1 ... · f New home sales in the United...

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist • Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist • Francis Généreux, Senior Economist • Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist

Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514-281-2336 or 1 866-866-7000, ext. 5552336 • [email protected] • desjardins.com/economics

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively.IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright © 2019, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

HIGHLIGHTS

f Another decline for U.S. housing starts in February.

f New home sales in the United States climbed again in February.

f United States: Real GDP growth downgraded for the last quarter of 2018.

f Canada: The trade balance improved in January.

f Canada: Real GDP by industry rebounded in January.

A LOOK AHEAD

f Modest increase in U.S. retail sales expected.

f United States: After declining in February, the ISM manufacturing index should rise in March.

f Canada: The labour market could underperform in March.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

f Volatile week without any clear trend for stock markets.

f Bond yields are increasing slightly since Thursday.

f The loonie got a boost from stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Canada.

Canada’s Monthly GDP Growth Beats Expectations

ECONOMIC STUDIES | MARCH 29, 2019

CONTENTSKey Statistics of the Week ................................. 2

United States, Canada

Financial Markets ............................................... 3

A Look Ahead ................................................... 4United States, Canada, Overseas

Economic Indicators of the Week ...................... 6

TablesEconomic indicators ......................................... 8Major financial indicators ...............................10

#1 BEST OVERALLFORECASTER - CANADA

http://desjardins.com/economics

ECONOMIC STUDIES

2MARCH 29, 2019 | WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

UNITED STATES

f After the final estimate for the national accounts in Q4 2018, annualized real GDP growth was revised downward—from 2.6% to 2.2%. The revision mainly affected consumption of durable goods, residential investment and government spending. On the flip side, net exports made a stronger contribution than initially estimated.

f After tumbling 0.6% in December, the worst monthly drop since September 2009, real consumption ticked up a mere 0.1% in January. Durable goods consumption fell 1.6%, dragged down by the 5.4% decline in the automobile industry. Consumption of durable goods rose 0.5%, while consumption of services was up 0.2%. The monthly change in prices according to the consumer expenditure deflator slipped from 1.8% to 1.4%.

f The recovery in the consumer confidence index for February was only fleeting. The index slid back again in March, shedding 7.3 points, from 131.4 to 124.1, still above January’s reading.

f The S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices in the 20 largest cities was up 0.1% in January, the lowest increase since August 2018. The annual change continues to slow, from 4.1% to 3.6%. It was 6.7% a year ago.

f Housing starts fell 8.7% in February after surging 11.7% in January. The annualized level fell from 1,273,000 to 1,162,000 units, just above the recent low of 1,140,000 reached in December. The drop in February was driven by the 17.0% decline in single-family homes. Building permits fell 1.6% to 1,296,000 units.

f New home sales rose for two straight months for the first time since winter 2018. Thus, a 4.9% increase was recorded in February on the heels of January’s 8.2% gain. Annualized sales reached 667,000 units, the highest level since March 2018.

f The U.S. balance of trade in goods and services improved in January, from -US$59.9B (the worst since October 2008) to -US$51.1B. Exports increased by 0.9%, while imports fell 2.6%.

Francis Généreux, Senior economist

CANADA

f Real GDP by industry was up 0.3% in January after two consecutive declines at the end of 2018. The widespread increases in various sectors suggest that Canada’s economy is gaining strength after several difficult months. Some risks remain, however, such as adjustments to domestic demand at higher interest rates, which could further trim production growth in the coming months. The carryover for the first quarter is higher than we expected, at close to 1% (annualized). We therefore have to increase our forecast for the first quarter to nearly 1.2%, instead of the 0.5% initially expected.

f The international merchandise trade balance improved slightly in January, from -$4.82B to -$4.25B. This gain is due to exports (+2.9%) outweighing imports (+1.5%). The bulk of this rise in exports, however, is due to higher energy prices. In real terms, exports rose by only 1.0%, whereas imports were up 2.1%. Bottom line, the volume of the trade balance deteriorated somewhat in January.

Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist

CANADAA carryover of about 1% (annualized) for the first quarter

Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies

Real GDP by industry

In 2012 $B

1,850

1,870

1,890

1,910

1,930

1,950

1,970

JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN. APR. JUL. OCT. JAN.

Quarterly averages

20182017 2019

Key Statistics of the Week


ECONOMIC STUDIES

15,600

15,700

15,800

15,900

16,000

16,100

16,200

16,300

2,725

2,750

2,775

2,800

2,825

2,850

2,875

2019/02/14 2019/02/22 2019/03/04 2019/03/12 2019/03/20 2019/03/28

S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right)

GRAPH 1Stock markets

Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies

Index Index

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

-0.90

-0.88

-0.86

-0.84

-0.82

-0.80

-0.78

-0.76

-0.74

2019/02/14 2019/02/22 2019/03/04 2019/03/12 2019/03/20 2019/03/28

Spread (left) United States (right) Canada (right)

GRAPH 2Bond markets

10-year yield

In % points In %


GRAPH 3Currency markets

US$/C$ US$/€


1.115

1.120

1.125

1.130

1.135

1.140

1.145

0.740

0.745

0.750

0.755

0.760

0.765

14/02/2019 22/02/2019 04/03/2019 12/03/2019 20/03/2019 28/03/2019

Canadian dollar (left) Euro (right)

Financial MarketsRisk Aversion Brings Back Some Volatility on Stock Markets

The U.S. stock market seesawed this week, as risk aversion was more present on markets. A series of mixed economic data, continuing trade talks between the United States and China, persisting Brexit uncertainty, and a more pessimistic tone of the major central banks fuelled volatility. The stock market rallied Tuesday with the rise in oil prices, but worries quickly resurfaced. The outlook for global economic growth remains uncertain. Among other things, Mario Draghi, of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated Wednesday that monetary policy tightening could be postponed further if the outlook remained pessimistic. U.S. GDP was also downgraded on Thursday. A more optimistic feeling seemed to want to take hold on Friday, however, allowing the S&P 500 index to head toward a weekly gain of around 1%. The Canadian index posted a more disappointing performance despite the rise in oil prices. Nevertheless, Friday’s greater-than-expected GDP growth in Canada managed to support the Canadian stock market.

U.S. bond rates followed a U-shaped trend this week. The ECB’s comments and global growth concerns made them fall in the first half of the week. The drop in U.S. jobless claims on Thursday then helped reverse the situation. The 2-year and 10-year yields were around 2.25% and 2.40% respectively on Friday morning. Canadian yields posted a similar trend. The rebound was steeper Friday morning, with the stronger-than-expected Canadian GDP. At the time of writing, the Canadian 2-year yield was around 1.55% and the 10-year yield was around 1.60%.

The caution on markets resulted in the greenback rising against several other currencies. The euro depreciated to about US$1.12. The solid retail sales results released on Friday for Germany did not really change the direction of the common currency, but did help stabilize it. Earlier in the week, Mario Draghi’s comments dragged down the euro. The pound struggled more on Thursday as the outcome of a Brexit vote on Friday by the British Parliament appeared uncertain. The outcome was ultimately unfavourable, consolidating the pound’s downward trend. The Canadian dollar retreated for much of the week. A rebound to close to US$0.75 was observed on Friday after the GDP data.

Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist

Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist

ECONOMIC STUDIES


A Look Ahead

UNITED STATES

Retail sales (February) – Following the 1.6% tumble, January’s 0.2% uptick looked quite tepid. Note that it was dragged down by drops in gas and motor vehicles. These two factors probably had diverging influences in February. The numbers on new auto sales published at the start of the month suggest some stagnation. However, the rise by gas prices should push the value of service station sales up. Excluding these two sectors, January’s growth was 1.2%; we’re expecting growth to be much more timid in March. The weather was worse and indicators of weekly sales slowed over the month. Confidence also weakened, according to some indexes. Sales excluding motor vehicles and gas are expected to stagnate. Total sales should increase 0.1%.

ISM manufacturing index (March) – The ISM manufacturing index has been fairly volatile in the last few months. It pulled back from 58.8 to 54.3 in December, rebounded to 56.6 in January, then fell to 54.2 in February, its lowest point since November 2016. It should continue to seesaw in March, when another upswing is expected. Despite some decreases, levels for the regional manufacturing indexes suggest a higher ISM. We therefore expect the ISM manufacturing index to go to 56.1.

New durable goods orders (February) – For the first time since winter 2014, new durable goods orders posted three consecutive increases in November, December and January. Much of the gains came from the aviation sector. However, we expect aircraft orders to have fallen significantly in February, which is what the Boeing data is signalling. Transportation should therefore make a negative contribution. Following January’s decline, we still do not expect orders excluding transportation to rebound, as industrial production and the ISM index fell in February. On the whole, total durable goods orders should post a pullback of 1.9%.

ISM non-manufacturing index (March) – While the ISM manufacturing index was dropping again in February, the non-manufacturing index was posting its biggest monthly gain in over a year. At 59.7, it wiped out much of the decreases posted in December and January. However, we expect it to retreat in March. The levels of the regional indicators and the drop in the Conference Board consumer confidence index are pointing that way. The ISM non-manufacturing should go to 57.1.

Job creation according to the establishment survey (March) – February’s lull in the U.S. job market (with only 20,000 hires) came as a surprise. For March, we expect job growth to move closer to its trend, but not exceed it. Among the positive signs, jobless claims were lower in March than in February. Moreover, given how volatile employment figures are, February’s weakness could give way to a major rebound. However, the shutdown that occurred in December and January could still impact private employment in March; according to an analysis from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, job growth tends to slow two months after shutdowns are over. Note also that household confidence in the job market eroded during the month. All in all, we are expecting 155,000 new jobs for March. In terms of the jobless rate, the labour force is expected to rebound after two months of decline, which should keep the jobless rate stable at 3.8%.

MONDAY April 1st - 8:30February m/m Consensus 0.3% Desjardins 0.1%January 0.2%

MONDAY April 1st - 10:00March Consensus 54.5 Desjardins 56.1February 54.2

TUESDAY April 2nd - 8:30February m/m Consensus -1.6% Desjardins -1.9%January 0.3%

WEDNESDAY April 3rd - 10:00March Consensus 58.0 Desjardins 57.1February 59.7

FRIDAY April 5 - 8:30March Consensus 178,000 Desjardins 155,000February 20,000


ECONOMIC STUDIES

CANADA

Labour force survey (March) – Employment growth has been exceptional over the last six months, adding an average of 48,300 jobs a month. Employment is up 2.0% over the last year, a pace that is much faster than production, as real GDP growth has slowed since mid-2018. This raises major doubts about the job market’s ability to keep up this pace in the coming months. Under these conditions, the risks of a poor performance in March are fairly high, which could result in employment pulling back. The unemployment rate could still stay put at 5.8%. What remains to be seen is whether the issue with unfilled jobs will once again muddy the picture by inflating employment growth.

OVERSEAS

Euro zone: Retail sales (February) – Of the many indicators that have weakened in recent quarters in the euro zone, consumer spending is among those that have done the best. December’s numbers were worrisome, with a monthly change of -1.4%, but January’s 1.3% jump eased concerns. As long as household spending keeps growing, we can assume that the current weakness in Euroland’s economy will not turn into a widespread contraction. The German data is sending a positive signal for February, with sales up by a monthly 0.9%; in France, however, consumer spending dropped by a disappointing 0.4%.

Germany: Industrial production (February) – German industry experienced several problems in 2018, particularly in the auto sector. While industrial production managed to rise in Euroland as a whole in January, Germany’s retreated again. Moreover, Germany’s PMI manufacturing index has been below 50 since the start of the year. The data on February’s production will tell us more about the health of the German and Euroland economies in the first quarter.

FRIDAY April 5 - 8:30March Consensus -10,000 Desjardins -12,000February 55,900

WEDNESDAY April 3rd - 5:00February m/m Consensus 0.2%January 1.3%

FRIDAY April 5 - 2:00February m/m Consensus 0.5%January -0.8%

ECONOMIC STUDIES


Economic IndicatorsWeek of April 1st to 5, 2019

Note: Desjardins, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. Theabbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours). Forecast of Desjardins, Economic Studies of the Desjardins Group.

CANADA

Previous data Day Hour Indicator Period Consensus

UNITED STATES

MONDAY 1 15:10 Speech of the Bank of Canada Governor, S. Poloz

TUESDAY 2 --- ---

WEDNESDAY 3 --- ---

THURDSAY 4 10:00 PMI-Ivey index March n/a 50.2 50.6

FRIDAY 5 8:30 Net change in employment March -10,000 -12,000 55,900 8:30 Unemployment rate March 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%

MONDAY 1 8:30 Retail sales Total (m/m) Feb. 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Excluding automobiles (m/m) Feb. 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 10:00 Construction spending (m/m) Feb. -0.2% -0.8% 1.3% 10:00 ISM manufacturing index March 54.5 56.1 54.2 10:00 Business inventories (m/m) Jan. 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%

TUESDAY 2 --- Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) March 16,700,000 16,900,000 16,560,000 8:30 Durable goods orders (m/m) Feb. -1.6% -1.9% 0.3%

WEDNESDAY 3 8:30 Speech of the Atlanta Fed President, R. Bostic 10:00 ISM non-manufacturing index March 58.0 57.1 59.7

THURSDAY 4 8:30 Initial unemployment claims April 1-5 216,000 216,000 211,000 13:00 Speech of the Cleveland Fed President, L. Mester 13:00 Speech of the Philadelphia Fed President, P. Harker

FRIDAY 5 8:30 Change in nonfarm payrolls March 178,000 155,000 20,000 8:30 Unemployment rate March 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 8:30 Weekly worked hours March 34.5 34.5 34.4 8:30 Average hourly earnings (m/m) March 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 15:00 Consumer credit (US$B) Feb. 17.75 18.00 17.05


ECONOMIC STUDIES

Economic IndicatorsWeek of April 1st to 5, 2019

Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Daylight Saving Time (GMT - 4 hours).

Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y Country Hour Indicator Period

OVERSEAS

Consensus m/m (q/q) y/y

SUNDAY 31Japan 19:50 Tankan large manufacturers index Q1 13 19 Japan 20:30 PMImanufacturingindex–final March n/a 48.9

MONDAY 1Japan 1:00 Vehicle sales March n/a 1.3%Italy 3:45 PMI manufacturing index March 47.5 47.7 France 3:50 PMImanufacturingindex–final March 49.8 49.8Germany 3:55 PMImanufacturingindex–final March 44.7 44.7Italy 4:00 Unemployment rate Feb. 10.5% 10.5% Eurozone 4:00 PMImanufacturingindex–final March 47.6 47.6United Kingdom 4:30 PMI manufacturing index March 51.2 52.0 Euro zone 5:00 Consumer price index – estimate March 1.5% 1.5%Australia 23:30 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting April 1.50% 1.50%

TUESDAY 2Euro zone 4:00 Producer price index Feb. 0.2% 3.1% 0.4% 3.0%United Kingdom 4:30 PMI construction index March 49.8 49.5 Euro zone 5:00 Unemployment rate Feb. 7.8% 7.8% Japan 20:30 PMI composite index March n/a 50.7 Japan 20:30 PMI services index March n/a 52.3

WEDNESDAY 3Italy 3:45 PMI composite index March 49.8 49.6 Italy 3:45 PMI services index March 50.8 50.4 France 3:50 PMIcompositeindex–final March 48.7 48.7France 3:50 PMIservicesindex–final March 48.7 48.7Germany 3:55 PMIcompositeindex–final March 51.5 51.5Germany 3:55 PMIservicesindex–final March 54.9 54.9Euro zone 4:00 PMIcompositeindex–final March 51.3 51.3Euro zone 4:00 PMIservicesindex–final March 52.7 52.7United Kingdom 4:30 PMI composite index March 51.0 51.5 United Kingdom 4:30 PMI services index March 51.0 51.3 Euro zone 5:00 Retail sales Feb. 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 2.2%

THURSDAY 4Germany 2:00 Factory orders Feb. 0.3% -3.1% -2.6% -3.9%India 2:15 Reserve Bank of India meeting April 6.00% 6.25% Germany 3:30 PMI construction index March n/a 54.7

FRIDAY 5Japan 1:00 Leading indicator – preliminary Feb. 97.2 96.5 Japan 1:00 Coincident indicator – preliminary Feb. 98.9 98.1 Germany 2:00 Industrial production Feb. 0.5% -1.4% -0.8% -3.3%France 2:45 Trade balance (€M) Feb. -4,700 -4,195 France 2:45 Current account (€B) Feb. n/a 0.9

ECONOMIC STUDIES


REF. MONTH LEVEL

-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year

Leading indicator (2010 = 100) Feb. 111.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.8

ISM manufacturing index1 Feb. 54.2 56.6 58.8 60.8 60.7

ISM non-manufacturing index1 Feb. 59.7 56.7 60.4 58.8 59.1

Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 March* 124.1 131.4 126.6 135.3 127.0Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Jan.* 13,012 0.1 -0.1 0.7 2.3Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Jan.* 14,617 -0.2 1.2 1.9 3.0Consumer credit ($B) Jan. 4,035 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.0Retail sales ($M) Jan. 504,440 0.2 -1.4 -0.7 2.3

Excluding automobiles ($M) Jan. 402,835 0.9 -1.3 -0.7 2.8Industrial production (2007 = 100) Feb. 110.5 0.0 -0.1 0.9 3.6

Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Feb. 79.1 79.2 79.6 79.3 77.8New machinery orders ($M) Jan. 500,479 0.1 -0.4 0.3 4.2New durable good orders ($M) Jan. 255,307 0.3 2.6 2.7 8.4Business inventories ($B) Dec. 1,994 0.6 1.2 2.9 4.8

Housing starts (k)1 Feb.* 1,162 1,273 1,206 1,280 1,290

Building permits (k)1 Feb.* 1,291 1,317 1,322 1,249 1,323

New home sales (k)1 Feb.* 667.0 636.0 612.0 601.0 663.0

Existing home sales (k)1 Feb. 5,510 4,930 5,210 5,350 5,610

Commercial surplus ($M)1 Jan.* -51,149 -59,900 -56,534 -51,444 -53,090

Nonfarm employment (k)2 Feb. 150,606 20.0 558.0 1,139 2,509

Unemployment rate (%)1 Feb. 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.1Consumer price (1982–1984 = 100) Feb. 253.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.5

Excluding food and energy Feb. 261.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Jan.* 108.9 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4

Excluding food and energy Jan.* 111.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8Producer price (2009 = 100) Feb. 117.2 0.1 -0.1 0.6 1.8Export prices (2000 = 100) Feb. 126.2 0.6 -0.6 -0.9 0.3Import prices (2000 = 100) Feb. 125.2 0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -1.3

1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week.

UNITED STATESMonthly economic indicators

VARIATION (%)

UNITED STATESQuarterly economic indicators

REF. QUART. LEVEL

Quart. ann. 1 year 2018 2017 2016

Gross domestic product (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 18,765 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.6Consumption (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 13,032 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7Government spending (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 3,189 -0.4 1.5 1.5 -0.1 1.4Residential investment (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 600.4 -4.7 -3.3 -0.3 3.3 6.5Non-residential investment (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 2,763 5.4 7.0 6.9 5.3 0.5

Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 2018 Q4 96.8 --- --- 45.0 22.5 23.4Exports (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 2,553 1.8 2.3 4.0 3.0 -0.1Imports (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 3,509 2.0 3.4 4.5 4.6 1.9Final domestic demand (2009 $B) 2018 Q4 19,573 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3GDP deflator (2009 = 100) 2018 Q4 111.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.1Labor productivity (2009 = 100) 2018 Q4 106.1 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.2Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) 2018 Q4 109.8 2.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 0.9Employment cost index (Dec. 2005 = 100) 2018 Q4 135.2 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2

Current account balance ($B)1 2018 Q4* -134.4 --- --- -488.5 -449.1 -432.9

VARIATION (%) ANNUAL VARIATION (%)

1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week.


ECONOMIC STUDIES

REF. MONTH LEVEL

-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year

Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Jan.* 1,949,855 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.6Industrial production (2007 $M) Jan.* 400,479 0.1 -1.1 -1.1 1.3Manufacturing sales ($M) Jan. 57,052 1.0 -1.9 -2.5 4.4

Housing starts (k)1 Feb. 173.2 206.8 224.4 198.3 229.7Building permits ($M) Jan. 8,379 -5.5 2.9 3.3 -0.1Retail sales ($M) Jan. 50,087 -0.3 -1.3 -1.4 1.1

Excluding automobiles ($M) Jan. 36,614 0.1 -1.1 -2.0 0.6Wholesale trade sales ($M) Jan. 63,547 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 1.8

Commercial surplus ($M)1 Jan.* -4,246 -4,823 -806.1 64.2 -1,699Exports ($M) Jan.* 47,575 2.9 -4.6 -7.3 3.1Imports ($M) Jan.* 51,822 1.5 2.3 1.1 8.3

Employment (k)2 Feb. 18,930 55.9 43.5 48.3 30.8

Unemployment rate (%)1 Feb. 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.0 5.8Average weekly earnings ($) Jan.* 1,012 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.0

Number of salaried employees (k)2 Jan.* 16,833 71.2 24.8 33.9 32.8Consumer price (2002 = 100) Feb. 134.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.5

Excluding food and energy Feb. 129.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.0Excluding 8 volatile items Feb. 133.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5

Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Feb.* 117.1 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 1.2Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Feb.* 107.1 4.6 12.9 -3.6 -0.6Money supply M1+ ($M) Jan. 1,001,910 -0.6 0.7 2.1 4.2

1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week.

CANADAMonthly economic indicators

VARIATION (%)

REF. QUART. LEVEL

Quart. ann. 1 year 2018 2017 2016

Gross domestic product (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 2,063,439 0.4 1.6 1.8 3.0 1.1Household consumption (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 1,166,783 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.6 2.1Government consumption (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 417,805 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.8Residential investment (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 133,761 -14.7 -7.5 -2.3 2.4 3.5Non-residential investment (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 180,315 -10.9 -4.3 1.7 2.5 -9.9

Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 2018 Q4 13,422 --- --- 13,873 17,582 2,291Exports (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 664,437 -0.2 4.5 3.3 1.1 1.3Imports (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 654,843 -1.1 -0.1 2.9 4.2 0.0Final domestic demand (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 2,036,317 -1.5 0.2 1.9 3.1 0.6GDP deflator (2007 = 100) 2018 Q4 107.7 -3.3 0.5 1.7 2.5 0.8Labour productivity (2007 = 100) 2018 Q4 106.2 -1.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.3Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 2018 Q4 107.3 4.7 1.2 2.5 0.8 -1.6

Current account balance ($M)1 2018 Q4 -15,483 --- --- -58,681 -60,130 -64,882

Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 2018 Q4 81.7 --- --- 82.8 81.6 79.2Disposable personal income ($M) 2018 Q4 1,237,732 3.3 2.2 3.5 4.5 0.3Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 2018 Q4 263,372 -38.1 -5.8 0.5 20.1 6.4

1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week.

CANADAQuarterly economic indicators

VARIATION (%) ANNUAL VARIATION (%)

ECONOMIC STUDIES


ACTUAL

March 29 March 22 -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower

United StatesFederal funds – target 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 1.75 2.50 2.15 1.75Treasury bill – 3 months 2.40 2.41 2.39 2.35 2.15 1.70 2.43 2.14 1.68Treasury bonds – 2 years 2.27 2.32 2.55 2.53 2.82 2.27 2.97 2.61 2.22Treasury bonds – 5 years 2.24 2.25 2.55 2.54 2.95 2.55 3.09 2.73 2.16Treasury bonds – 10 years 2.41 2.46 2.76 2.72 3.06 2.75 3.23 2.89 2.37Treasury bonds – 30 years 2.82 2.89 3.12 3.02 3.21 2.97 3.45 3.11 2.81S&P 500 index (level) 2,826 2,801 2,804 2,486 2,914 2,641 2,931 2,740 2,351DJIA index (level) 25,839 25,502 26,026 23,062 26,458 24,103 26,828 25,038 21,792Gold price (US$/ounce) 1,294 1,313 1,304 1,278 1,191 1,323 1,359 1,263 1,179CRB index (level) 184.09 184.16 181.50 170.97 195.16 195.36 206.38 190.16 168.36WTI oil (US$/barrel) 59.99 58.87 55.76 45.15 73.16 64.87 77.41 62.92 44.48

CanadaOvernight – target 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.75 1.54 1.25Treasury bill – 3 months 1.67 1.64 1.67 1.64 1.59 1.10 1.73 1.50 1.09Treasury bonds – 2 years 1.55 1.54 1.77 1.86 2.21 1.77 2.36 1.98 1.46Treasury bonds – 5 years 1.52 1.48 1.81 1.88 2.33 1.96 2.48 2.08 1.43Treasury bonds – 10 years 1.62 1.60 1.94 1.95 2.42 2.09 2.60 2.19 1.54Treasury bonds – 30 years 1.89 1.89 2.20 2.15 2.41 2.23 2.58 2.29 1.84

Spread with the U.S. rate (% points)Overnight – target -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 -0.61 -0.75Treasury bill – 3 months -0.73 -0.77 -0.72 -0.71 -0.56 -0.60 -0.48 -0.65 -0.80Treasury bonds – 2 years -0.72 -0.78 -0.78 -0.67 -0.61 -0.50 -0.46 -0.63 -0.85Treasury bonds – 5 years -0.72 -0.77 -0.74 -0.66 -0.62 -0.59 -0.51 -0.65 -0.81Treasury bonds – 10 years -0.80 -0.86 -0.82 -0.77 -0.64 -0.66 -0.56 -0.70 -0.89Treasury bonds – 30 years -0.94 -1.00 -0.92 -0.87 -0.80 -0.74 -0.66 -0.82 -1.02

S&P/TSX index (level) 16,105 16,089 16,068 14,222 16,073 15,367 16,567 15,708 13,780Exchange rate (C$/US$) 1.3365 1.3429 1.3296 1.3639 1.2906 1.2894 1.3639 1.3122 1.2548Exchange rate (C$/€) 1.4998 1.5194 1.5126 1.5600 1.4983 1.5889 1.5886 1.5188 1.4771

OverseasEuro zoneECB – Refinancing rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Exchange rate (US$/€) 1.1223 1.1314 1.1377 1.1438 1.1609 1.2323 1.2380 1.1578 1.1194

United KingdomBoE – Base rate 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.75 0.67 0.50Bonds – 10 years 1.00 1.01 1.30 1.27 1.48 1.39 1.72 1.36 0.99FTSE index (level) 7,279 7,208 7,107 6,734 7,510 7,057 7,877 7,287 6,585Exchange rate (US$/£) 1.3017 1.3212 1.3204 1.2707 1.3031 1.4018 1.4338 1.3130 1.2486

GermanyBonds – 10 years -0.07 -0.02 0.19 0.24 0.47 0.50 0.64 0.34 -0.08DAX index (level) 11,507 11,364 11,602 10,559 12,247 12,097 13,170 11,906 10,382

JapanBoJ – Main policy rate -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10Nikkei index (level) 21,206 21,627 21,603 20,015 24,120 21,454 24,271 21,968 19,156Exchange rate (US$/¥) 110.85 109.93 111.92 110.28 113.70 106.28 114.54 110.91 105.90

CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of JapanNote: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m.

UNITED STATES, CANADA, OVERSEASMajor financial indicators

IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED)

PREVIOUS DATA LAST 52 WEEKS

Canada’s Monthly GDP Growth Beats FORECASTER - CANADA #1 ... · f New home sales in the United...

Documents

Transcript of Canada’s Monthly GDP Growth Beats FORECASTER - CANADA #1 ... · f New home sales in the United...