WHAT HISTORY TEACHES

• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.

CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT

ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT

QUESTION

• WHAT IS A MEGACITY AND WHAT MEASURES WILL MAKE IT LESS VULNERABLE TO THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS?

MEGACITIES IN 1900WORLD POPULATION:

1.6 BILLION• TOKYO: 21.9 M• NEW YORK: 15.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 13.9

M• SAO PAULO: 12.5 M• SHANGHAI: 11.7

• OSAKA: 10.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 9.9

M• LOS ANGELES: 9.5

M• CALCUTA 9.0 M• BEIJING 9.0 M• SOURCE: THE

POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01

MEGACITIES IN 2000WORLD POPULATION:

6 BILLION• TOKYO: 25.4 M• BOMBAY: 18.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 18.3

M• SAO PAULO: 18.0 M• NEW YORK: 16.7 M

• LAGOS: 14.1 M• CALCUTA 13.2 M• LOS ANGELES: 13.2

M• SHANGHAI: 13.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 12.7

M• SOURCE: THE

POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01

MEGACITIES IN 2020WORLD POPULATION:

10 BILLION• BOMBAY: 28.5 M• TOKYO: 27.3 M• LAGOS: 26.5 M• DHAKA: 24.0 M• KARACHI: 21.7 M

• SAO PAULO: 21.3 M • MEXICO CITY: 19.6

M• JAKARTA: 19.4• CALCUTA 18.8 M• NEW DEHLI: 18:R M• SOURCE: THE

POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01

WHAT HISTORY TEACHES

• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.

MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS FROM …

• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• WILDFIRES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS

INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

• NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT.

• THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.

INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

• UNACCEPTABLE RISK CALLS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO REDUCE VULNER-ABILITIES.

INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

• VULNERABILITIES REFLECT POLICY FLAWS WITH RESPECT TO PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS

• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES.

• BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.

TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF VULNERABILITIES

• SIZE• FRAGILITY OF

EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE

• INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES

• CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES

SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORTATION

• DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES.

• NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.

LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON UTILITY SYSTEMS

• DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS.

• OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.

SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE

QUESTION

•CAN WE MAKE MEGACITIES RESILIENT TO NATURAL HAZARDS?

MEGACITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• NAT. HAZARDS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISKACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VULNERABILITY REDUCTON

• PREPAREDNESS• PRPTECTION• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY • EDUCATIONAL SURGES

DISASTER RESILIENCE