Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for ... e-resilience... · •China Unicom 87...

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division Connecting economies and empowering people Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in China Peter Lange 1

Transcript of Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for ... e-resilience... · •China Unicom 87...

ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in China

Peter Lange

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

What is e-resilience?

e-resilience is defined as the ability of a system to withstand, recover from and change in the face of an external disturbance (such as acute or chronic climate change). Resilience constitutes an important property of livelihood systems which, through a set of seven dynamic sub-properties (robustness, scale, redundancy, rapidity, flexibility, self-organisation and learning) can enhance adaptive capacity. E-resilience is a property of livelihood systems by which ICTs interact with a set of resilience sub-properties, enabling the system to adapt to the effects of climate change.

Source: Association for Progressive Communication (APC)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Natural disasters in China

Sour

ce: N

atio

nal D

isast

er R

educ

tion

Cen

tre (N

DRC

) 3

ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Population density

So

urce

: Enc

yclo

ped

ia B

ritan

nica

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fibre optic backbone networks

Source: ITU

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Access network infrastructure in China

• 100% of China’s ‘administrative villages’ had voice telephony services by 2010

• 100% of towns were connected to the Internet, 98% through broadband

• Mobile network coverage is available to nearly 100% of the population

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed-line access

• 232 million subscribers (2014) • China Telecom 145 million • China Unicom 87 million • 21 million public payphones

• Penetration • 18% of population (2006: 28%) • 48% of households (2005: 79%)

• 75% of subscribers use fixed broadband

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed broadband

• Subscribers (2014) • DSL: 95 million (2012: 119 million)

• ADSL2+, VDSL • FttX: 68 million (growing at 67% p.a.)

• 90% business/public sector, 10% residential • Cable modem: 4 million

• 235 million cable TV subscriptions

• 20Mb/s available to 80% of urban population, 4Mb/s to 85% in suburbs

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed broadband speed, download

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed broadband speed, upload

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed broadband speed improvement in China

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

China’s mobile market

• 1.3 billion subscriptions (94% penetration) • GSMA: 630 million ‘unique’ subscribers

Operator Market share

2G 3G 4G

China Mobile

63% GSM TD-SCDMA

TD-LTE

China Unicom

23% GSM W-CDMA Hybrid FD/TD-LTE

China Telecom

14% CDMA 2000

EV-DO Hybrid FD/TD-LTE

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Transition from 2G to 3G and 4G

• China Mobile currently provides 4G coverage to

75% of the population. Urbanisation: 53%

Sour

ce: G

SMA

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Mobile broadband – speed, latency • 80% of unique mobile subscribers access

the Internet through their mobile device • Of these, 69% use 3G or 4G

Chi

na U

nico

m

Sour

ce: O

pens

igna

l.com

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Mobile broadband – speed, latency

Chi

na Te

leco

m

Source: Opensignal.com

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Mobile broadband – speed, latency

• 3G speed below global average (1.8Mb/s) • Poor 3G/4G latency (should be 10…200ms)

Chi

na M

obile

HK

Sour

ce: O

pens

igna

l.com

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed network latency

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Packet loss

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Fixed optic backbone networks and nodes

Source: ITU

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Mean server distance in speed/quality tests

Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Network latency improvement

Source: UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Packet loss improvement

Source: UNESCAP, speedtest.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Redundancy in the fibre optic backbone network

Sour

ce: B

ased

on

ITU

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• Many routes are operated by one carrier only (China Telecom)

ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Internet interconnection points

• Beijing • Shanghai • Guangzhou

•New since 2014: • Chengdu • Xian • Wuhan • Shenyang • Nanjing • Chongqing • Zhengzhou

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

IPSTAR satellite coverage (China Telecom)

Source: IPSTAR

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

International submarine fibre optic cables

Source: cablemap.info

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

International submarine fibre optic cables

11 la

ndin

g st

atio

ns

in 5

citi

es

Sour

ce: c

able

map

.info

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

China’s International Internet bandwidth

Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

International Internet bandwidth per Internet user

Rank (2012) Country/Territory Bandwidth (Kb/s) 1 Luxembourg 4091 2 Hong Kong 1240 … 46 Macau 58 … 52 Taiwan 44 … 134 Ethiopia 5 136 Mali 5 139 China 4

Source: Based on ITU

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

US$600 billion power grid upgrade by 2020 • West-East Electricity Transfer project

• US$100 billion Smart Grid technology will make the network more efficient, stable and resilient So

urce

: Ene

rgy

Tran

sitio

n Re

sear

ch In

stitu

te (E

NTR

I) 30

ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Trends in applications

• Space technology • Mobile and Cloud GIS • Open Source software • Social media and Big Data

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Active social media accounts in China

• e.g. Weibo users 2014: 500m registered, 176m monthly active (+36%), 81m daily active ( +31%)

Sour

ce: w

eare

soci

al.n

et

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Social media in DRM

• Early warnings, instructions • Very large user base • Sharing/forwarding • User ID independent of access medium

• Disaster relief • Appeals for donations, volunteers • Structured two-way communication • Crowd-sourced data

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

What is Big Data?

Big Data is a popular term used to describe structured and unstructured data sets so large or complex that traditional data processing techniques and applications are inadequate. Challenges include capture, storage, transfer, sharing, search, visualisation, analysis and information privacy.

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Big Data in DRM

• Disaster events can be detected very quickly through systematic monitoring of Twitter data for relevant keywords and suitable post-processing

• Using location information contained in the data, the geographic extent of affected areas can be assessed much more quickly than by conventional means (e.g. field teams)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Crowd-sourced crisis map of Beijing floods, 2012

Wid

ely

circ

ulat

ed o

n W

eibo

Ava

ilabl

e fa

ster

, mor

e ac

cura

te a

nd

easie

r to

read

than

“of

ficia

l” m

ap

Source: irevolution.net

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

The digital divide in China • Mobile penetration in selected provinces

Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Internet penetration in China by province, 2013

Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

The digital divide in China • Urban vs. rural Internet users

Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

The digital divide in China

Source: Based on National Bureau of Statistics data

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Narrowing the digital divide • Technology-neutral licensing, spectrum re-farming • Licensing more service providers • First Responder network • Improving resilience of the backbone network • Review of building codes • Improved provisioning of emergency

communications equipment • Liberalising applications and content

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Narrowing the digital divide • Critical penetration rates for DRM are

currently only around 50% in China • Mobile phones, Internet users

• Infrastructure • Universal Service Fund (USF)? • Additional service providers?

• Disposable income • Subsidised devices and services in rural areas? • Restructuring of economy (long-term)

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Technology-neutral licensing • Fragmented mobile market structure • Non-optimal technology mix compromises

e-resilience • Spectrum re-farming

• Allow China Telecom to re-farm its 450 and 800MHz CDMA-2000 spectrum for LTE

• Particularly suitable for wide area coverage in rural areas

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Licensing more service providers • Mobile market with one dominant player

would be able to support and benefit from a 4th network operator

• Rural coverage obligations? (USF) • Regional rural area operators with special

concessions? • Community-based initiatives in remote areas

• WiFi Calling, roaming… • Regulatory environment?

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• First Responder network • FirstNet initiative (US): One common platform

based on LTE for all emergency services (police, fire, ambulance…)

• Replace various outdated trunked radio systems • Substantial investment

• PPP models to prioritise rural and remote areas (critical for DRM)

• Roaming agreements with existing commercial operators for already well covered areas

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Improving resilience of the backbone network (1) • One dominant player

• Lack of competition and redundancy on major routes

• No fibre backbone in parts of the country • Other/new operators

• Alternative fibre routes • Low-cost wireless/microwave technologies in rural

areas and as backup for vulnerable routes

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Improving resilience of the backbone network (2) • Strengthen terrestrial fibre links to Europe and

India • ‘Mega-redundancy’ with east coast cable

landing stations • Additional bandwidth for underdeveloped

western parts of the country

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Review of building codes • Telecom infrastructure frequently damaged

during natural disasters

• Improved provisioning of emergency communications equipment • Delays: Sat-phones (30 hours), emergency

satellite backhaul (4 days) • More decentralised warehousing/provisioning

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Lessons learned and recommendations

• Liberalising applications and content • Good examples of social media and crowd-

sourced data use in DRM • Sector would benefit if international

platforms were more easily accessible and content on local platforms less tightly controlled

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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

Connecting economies and empowering people

Thank you!

Questions?

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