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Transcript of BP World Energi 2004 -
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BP 2004
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Energy in Focus
Michael Smith. Jakarta. 7 July, 2004
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Energy Markets
Energy Prices 2002Energy Prices 2002--44GDP & Energy GrowthGDP & Energy Growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2001 2002 2003 2004
Energy
GDP
0
10
20
30
40
an-02 an-03 an-04
Coal
Oil
Gas$/boe
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
2 0
2
2 9
0 4
2 0
6 9
N clear
Hydro
Nat ral
as
il
oal
Pri ary
Energy
World Pri ary Energy ons ption rowth 2003
0
2
3
4
6
N
A erica
S
A erica
E rope
E rasia
id East Africa Asia
Pacific
Year on year change
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Themes and Outline
new look at oil and gas reserves
Oil markets: supply, demand & prices
Inter-fuel competition
China, Russia & sia-Pacific oil trade
Other energy issues
Summary & conclusions
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Oil and Gas Reserve Data
ew data series for proved oil and gas reserves
ggregated national data:
not necessarily SEC definitions
not BP certified reserves
Proved reserves not resources, oil and gas in place orultimately recoverable.
Definition of Proved Reserves:
Generally taken to be those quantities that geological andengineering information indicates with reasonable certaintycan be recovered from known reservoirs under existingeconomic and operating conditions.
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Proved Oil Reserves
0
200
400
00
800
1000
1200
1 80 1 82 1 84 1 8 1 88 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 1 8 2000 2002
iddle East ort erica
S ent erica E ro e E rasiafrica sia PacificT o sand illion barrels
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
World Proved Oil Reserves
500
00
700
800
00
1000
1100
1200
1300
1 80 1 82 1 84 1 8 1 88 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 1 8 2000 2002
New Series 2002Thousand million barrels
R/P ratio = 41.0R/P ratio = 41.0
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Proved Oil Reserves
0
200
400
00
00
000
200
0 2 4 0 2 4 2000 2002
OPE on OPE SUThousand million barrels
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
on-OPEC Proved Oil Reserves
0
20
40
60
0
00
20
40
60
0
200
220
9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 990 992 994 996 99 2000 2002
Ot er Oil Sands exicoT ousand million barrels
(Excludes FSU)
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Production Growth Outside OPEC 1 8-2003
Denmark
Brazil
Mexico
Kazakhstan
Russian
Federation
Canada
Angola
Eq. Guinea
ChinaSudan
USA
Colombia
UK
Egypt
Total = 5.8 million barrels daily Total = 1. million barrels daily
Growth Decline
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
0
20
40
60
0
00
20
40
60
0
200
9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 990 992 994 996 99 2000 2002
iddle East SU ort merica
S C merica E ro e fricasia Pacific
Proved at ral Gas Reserves
Trillion c bic metres
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
World Proved atural Gas Reserves
40
0
80
100
120
140
1 0
180
200
1 80 1 82 1 84 1 8 1 88 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 1 8 2000 2002
ew Series 2002Trillion cubic metres
R/P ratio = 7.1R/P ratio = 7.1
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
0
20
40
60
0
00
20
40
60
0
200
9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 990 992 994 996 99 2000 2002
iddle East SU ort merica
S C merica E ro e fricasia Pacific
Proved at ral Gas Reserves
0
2
4
6
9 4 9 6 9
990 992 994 996 99 2000 2002
Trillion c bic metres
0
2
4
6
9 4 9 6 9
990 992 994 996 99 2000 2002
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Oil Prices
20
2
0
40
Jan-0
r-0 J l-0 Oct-0 Jan-04
r-04
0
10
20
0
40
0
0
70
80
1 7 1 80 1 84 1 88 1 2 1 2000
Daily Oil Prices 200Daily Oil Prices 200 --0404 nn al Oil Prices 1 7nn al Oil Prices 1 7 --200200
Brent $/bbl Brent $/bbl
moneymoney--ofof--thethe--dayday
200 rices200 rices
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Oil MarketsExceptional Events 2003/4
War in Iraq
Disruptions in Venezuela and igeria
Improved economic growth, especially in China
Japanese nuclear outages
Weaker than expected production in mature non-OPEC
Concerns over terrorism and security
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
2 0
1 0
0 0
1 0
2 0
3 0
2001 2002 2003
ons tionSon PEPE
World il Growth
Year on year change, illion barrels daily
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
OECD Total Commercial Oil Stocks
2 00
2200
2 00
2400
2 00
2 00
2 00
2 00
2 00
Jan 02 pr 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 0 pr 0 Jul 0 Oct 0 Jan 04 pr 04
2002 Range
Million barrels
Source: International Energy gency
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
0
2
4
6
9 ! 4 9! 6 9! !
990 992 994 996 99! 2000 2002
International atural Gas Prices
$/mmbtu
Japan L G priceJapan L G price
EuropeanEuropeanBorderBorder
USUS -- enry ubenry ub
UK BPUK BP
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
4
2
0
2
4
200 2002 200
cons m tion rod ction
US at ral Gas Cons m tion/Prod ction
Year on year change
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
0 2 4
Br nei
stralia
ndonesia
Qatar
an
lgeria
alaysia
igeria
rinidad
Billion c bic etres
Exporters
L G rade Growth, 2003*
*only changes over 0.5 bc shown
2 0 2 4 0
rance
orea
Spain
apan
US
porters
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
2
0
2
4
99 994 99 996 99 99 999 2000 200 2002 200
World Coal Consumption excl. China
Year on year change
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
China and Russia
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
China: share of world increments 1 8-2003
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Cement
teel prod.
Coal cons.
Oil cons.
Elec. gen.
G P
Sources: OEF, IISI, USGS
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
0
20
40
60
0
00
20
40
60
" ".5 #
"
0.6#
" 5.2 #
2. $ #
" 3. % #
72.3 #
il
as
Coal
clear
ydro
Total Energy
China: Energy Cons mption rowth 2003
il
as
Coal
clear
ydro
rowth by F el (Mtoe)rowth by F el (Mtoe)rowth by F el ( )rowth by F el ( )
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
.0
0.
0.0
0.
.0
.
2.0
2.
.0
9 9 9 9 99 99 99 99 999 200 200
China: et Oil Imports 9 200
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Russian GDP, Energy Production & Consumption
0
0
0
0
00
0
2 4 2000 200 2002 200
GDP Production ConsumptionIndex 2 = 00
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Russian Production & Consumption of Oil & Gas
0
2
4
6
9
99 999 2000 200 2002 200
Production Consumption
Mb/dOilOil
0
00
200
00
400
00
600
00
99 999 2000 200 2002 200
Production Consumption
Bcmatural Gasatural Gas
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Growth in uclear Electricity Generation
2
0
2
4
99 994 99 996 99 99 999 2000 200 2002 200
Trend
Year on year change
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Renewable Energy
Germany
SpainUS
Denmark
India
Rest of world
Total: 40. gigawattsTotal: 40. gigawatts
0
00
200
00
400
00
00
4 2000 2002
Rest of worldUSE ropeapan
MW per ann m
Installed Wind GenerationInstalled Wind GenerationCapacityCapacity -- end 200end 200
Global Solar PV prod ctionGlobal Solar PV prod ction
So rce: BTM Cons lt, IE
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
World Carbon Emissions Index
0
00
0
20
0
0 2 4 2000 200 2002 200
Index ( 0 = 00)
World
World (exc China and FSU)
nnex
nnex (ratified countries)
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 BP
Summary and Conclusions
igh prices and recovering energy consumption growth
Resources not constraining at global level
Importance of geopolitics and expectations
Markets work but have not fully adjusted
China has expanded coal production and use and oilimports
Russian production momentum strong
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BP 2004
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004
Energy in Focus
www.bp.com/statisticalreview2004
