WORKSHOP 3: VISUAL MEETS STORYSTELLING: HIGHLIGHTS FROM 'NEDERLAND VAN BOVEN'
Boven 04102013
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Mobilising people to protect and restore our environment – the roles of paradigms, cosmologies, theories, values and beliefs
(Psycho-history 101)
Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, VUWRick Boven
4 October 2013
ENTERING THE AGE OF SCARCITY? REAL PRICE INDEX: 2000 = 100
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Note: Base 2000=100Source: The World Bank (2011b).
Metals &
minerals
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20080
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Energy
Food
TWO-THIRDS OF MAJOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY NATURE ARE IN DECLINE
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Declining
•Fish stocks and wild foods
•Productive land quality
•Fresh water supply
•Fresh water quality
•Wood fuel
•Species diversity including crop varieties
•Species groups closer to extinction
•Atmosphere cleansing of pollutants
•Local climate regulation via land cover
•Natural buffers against extreme events
•Wild and domestic pollinators
•Medicinal resources
•Quantity and quality of aesthetically pleasing natural landscapes
•Sacred groves and species
Improving
•Crops, livestock, aquaculture production
•Global climate regulation (via increased albedo due to forest clearing)
Mixed
•Timber and forests
•Regulation of water flows
•Biological control
•Recreation and tourism opportunities
CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE, 1791-2011, PPM
4Source: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2012); Neftal et al. (1994).
17911801
18111821
18311841
18511861
18711881
18911901
19111921
19311941
19511961
19711981
19912001
20110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
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Marriage of Louis XIV to Maria Theresa of Spain, c.1660
PEOPLE WHO WORE FUNNY CLOTHES AND HAD MANY STRANGE AND WRONG IDEAS
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Photo credit: iStock
MORE PEOPLE WEARING FUNNY CLOTHES WITH STRANGE IDEAS
HOW PARADIGMS CHANGE
Old paradigm begins to fail• Unacceptable outcomes• Inconsistent observations
Someone re-organises and extends concepts to form a new paradigm
Paradigm change process• Explain why old paradigm has become obsolete• Show how new paradigm overcomes the
deficiencies of the old paradigm• Change the views of leaders or change the leaders
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MY HYPOTHESIS: “The way we think about managing economy-environment trade-offs affects
the future we will experience”
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Long term co-dependence
Short termtrade-offs
Healthy environment
Strong economy
Environment damage
Economic costs
EXAMPLES OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
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Economics Strategy
Assume same costs and prices for all
Assume static industry economics
Predict equilibrium outcomes
Discover cost and price differences, and reasons
Understand industry evolution and options to influence
Create sustainable cost and price advantages
TYPES OF IDEAS
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Type Meaning
Cosmology Entrenched system of beliefs about how and why the world works as it does
Paradigm A framework for understanding an important aspect of the world
Theory A rule that can be used to develop predictions
Value A source of utility for individuals
Belief A probability statement about an expected outcome from given conditions
In conventional psychological analysis behaviour is determined by values and
beliefs
UNRECOGNISED BUT DOMINANT MODERN ASSUMPTIONS?
Cornucopian A futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology
Panglossian Unwarranted optimism, the belief that all works out to be the best it can be; blindly or naively optimistic
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PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM FROM ECOLOGY
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Source: Adapted from http://anthro.palomar.edu
Evo
luti
on
Time
Stable environment
Rapidly changing environment
CLIMATE MODELLERS IMPLY GRADUAL, CONTINUOUS CHANGE IN OUR FUTURE . . .
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. . . BUT THE RECORD SHOWS THAT RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE IS NORMAL
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Temperature volatility is normal
Unusual stability for 10,000 years
7 degrees Celsiuschange in 20 years
WE MAY UNDERSTAND HISTORY AS DESCRIPTIONS OF THE PAST . . .
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Kings of England and Wales
1272-1307 Edward I House of Plantagenet
1307-1327 Edward II House of Plantagenet
1327-1377 Edward III House of Plantagenet
1377-1399 Richard II House of Plantagenet
1399-1413 Henry IV House of Lancaster
1413-1422 Henry V House of Lancaster
1422-1461 Henry VI House of Lancaster
1461-1483 Edward IV House of York
1483 Edward V House of York
1483-1485 Richard III House of York
1485-1509 Henry VII House of Tudor
. . . OR PERHAPS AS INEXORABLE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE . . .
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-10,000
-1,000 -100 -10Years before present
Farming
Computers
Iron
Electricity
Genomics
Printing
Wheel
Guns
. . . THAT WE CAN PROJECT INTO THE FUTURE
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Interstellar travel
Regenerating organs
Solar system exploration
Immortality
Artificial intelligence
WHAT MODERN SOCIETY LEARNED FROM GODEL AND POPPER
Philosopher Learning
Godel A system of sufficient complexity can generate an infinite number of possibilities
Popper History unfolds by technology advance and human choice.Technology inventions and human choices are not predictable. Therefore history is not predictable
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Don’t try to anticipate the futureModern conclusion :
HUNTER-GATHERER ERA
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Sustainable environmental productivity
Rate of resource use
Food potential limited by productivity of forests, savannahs, coastlines
Food production limited by hunting and gathering technologies
10,000 BCIce age
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Sustainable environmental productivity
Rate of resource use
10,000 BCIce age 1800
Food potential limited by productivity of farmland
Food production limited by traditional agriculture
technology and human and animal energy
Dramatic increase in food productivity of land due to switch to agriculture
ERA OF TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE
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Sustainable environmental productivity
Rate of resource use
10,000 BCIce age 1800 2013
Sustainable food productivity increases • Shipping of resources to Western
economies• Fossil fuel energy • Agricultural technologies
Output grows rapidly. Environmental constraints irrelevant.
BREAK-OUT TO GROWTH PHASE
ESTIMATED GLOBAL OUTPUT
22Source: Maddison (2010); U.S. Census Bureau (2011b).
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.401.501.601.701.801.902.002.102.202.302.402.502.602.702.802.903.003.103.203.303.403.503.603.703.803.904.004.104.204.304.404.504.604.704.804.905.005.105.205.305.405.505.605.705.805.906.006.106.206.306.406.506.606.706.806.907.007.107.207.307.407.507.607.707.807.908.008.108.208.308.408.508.608.708.808.909.009.109.209.309.409.509.609.709.809.9010.000
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4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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Global population, billions
GDP perCapita,1990
Int.$000s
1800 1950
2000
Projectedfor 2050
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1800 2013 2050
Sustainable environmental productivity
Rate of resource use
Food potential limited by agricultural productivity and
available land
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS RETURN
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Eras
Transitions
Traditionalagriculture
Hunter-gatherer
Industrialisedagriculture
Time
HUMAN HISTORY AS PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM
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1980 2050
In 1980, 1.0 Earth required to
operate sustainably
Eco-systems in decline
By 2050, 2.0 Earths would be required
to operate sustainably
OVERSHOOT EMERGES
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2013 2050
WHICH FUTURE?
Growth forever
Overshootcrisis
Sustainability
Soft landing
2.0
1.0Eart
hs
req
uir
ed
STRATEGY CHOICE – MAXIMISE GROWTH OR REDUCE RISK?
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Cornucopian Constrained
Maximise Growth
Technology saves us
Overshoot crisis
Reduce Risk
Slower growth
Soft landing
State of the world
Strategy Choice
WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE CORNUCOPIAN ASSUMPTION?
Constraints status Constraints outlook
Food Real land, water, energy and food cost increasing.Population growing.
Yield increase slowing.Land in production being degraded.Reserve land scarce.
Climate Greenhouse gas emissions accelerating.
Emerging consensus we won’t prevent 2 degrees Celsius increase.
Energy Costs increasing and fossil fuel use growing.
Fossil fuel growth plans incompatible with climate stability.
Ecosystems Value of services provided is several times value of measured global economy.
In absolute decline.Pressures increasing.
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SOME BAD ECONOMIC THEORIES AND PROPOSED CORRECTIONS
Economic theory Proposed corrections
Individuals are self-interested pursuers of consumption
Individuals have diverse motivations including valuing outcomes for others
The purpose of economic policy is to provide consumption growth
Economic policy should avoid creating unacceptable risks
Economic activity is small relative to the size of the environment
Economic activity is large relative to the size of the environment
There are free gifts from the environment and free disposals to the environment
The economy and environment are co-dependent
Business activity should be unconstrained
Business activities should be constrained if they harm the future productivity of the environment
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THE BAD THEORIES USED TO BE GOOD
Economic theory Function
Individuals are self-interested pursuers of consumption
Simplified the mathematics
Encouraged economic growth
The purpose of economic policy is to provide consumption growth
Encouraged economic growth
Provided individual utility
Economic activity is small relative to the size of the environment
Was true
There are free gifts from the environment and free disposals to the environment
Not a big problem with a small economy
Business activity should be unconstrained
Externalities did not threaten civilisation
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COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION
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Capital
Labour
Technology Output Consumption
Technology converts capital and labour inputs to output
Some output is consumed and some is reinvested to replace and increase capital and labour stocks
There is no limit constraining output growth
(Y=AKαLβ)
THE TWO SIDES OF THE PARADIGM WAR
Economic – 20th Century thinking
Economy is small relative to environment
The future will be an extension of the past
Societal objective should be to maximise GDP
Environmental – 21st Century thinking
Economy is large relative to environment
The future will be different from the past
Societal objective should be to reduce risk
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(Modern conventional economists, many political and business leaders)
(Ecological economists, scientists, activists)
“STAGES” OF THE CONSUMPTION VALUE
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Argument When?
Humans are self-interested (Hobbes) 17th
Humans seek utility from pleasure, avoiding pain (Bentham)
18th
Humans get utility from commodities (Jevons)
19th
Output and then consumption maximisation as national goal
1930s through 1950s
Consumption entrenched as primary goal for individuals
Late 20th
Consumption goal exported to emerging economies
Late 20th
FUNCTIONS OF “SINS”
Value Traditional Agriculture Sins
Growth Phase Virtues
Greed Limits consumption that depletes scarce resources
Encourages activity and wealth accumulation
Envy Prevents efforts to lift consumption to match others
Encourages efforts to lift consumption to match others
Pride Avoid conspicuous consumption
Encourage conspicuous consumption
Gluttony Limits consumption of food, which is what limits population
Encourages consumption of food, stimulating growth
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Source: Adapted from Boven, 2003.
HISTORY EMERGES FROM CO-EVOLUTION
Time
Ideas
Ideas
Ideas
Ideas
Behaviour Behaviour Behaviour
Outcomes Outcomes Outcomes
PROPOSED VALUES AND THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL FUNCTION
PROPOSED VALUE FUNCTION
Live in harmony with nature Value environmental outcomes
Be a custodian for future generations Avoid high discount rates that encourage a short term view
Take no more than you need Reduce ecological footprint
Contribute more than you take Encourage productivity
Treat others as you would have them treat you
Avoid externalities and tragedy of the commons
Look after your physical and mental health
Don’t become a burden
Learn and teach Build capability
Avoid superiority Reduce subjective competition, which creates prisoner’s dilemma games
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FORCES PREVENTING VIGOROUS ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION BY OUR LEADERS
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Governments
Must promote policies that appeal to voters, who want more consumption
Short term focus because they face election every 3 to 5 years
Subject to influence from wealthy individuals and businesses, both wanting more wealth for themselves
Businesses
Providers of goods and services wanted by customers, who aspire to consume more
Purpose is to grow shareholder wealth
Directors are legally required to act in the interests of the company
Discount rates and capital markets encourage focus on short term
PROPOSED INFLUENCE STRATEGY TO CHANGE IDEAS AND OUTCOMES
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Initiators
Opinion-leaders
Other individuals
Governments
Businesses
LESSONS FROM CATASTROPHIC POLICY FAILURES
“In the first stage, mental standstill fixes the principles and boundaries governing a problem. In the second stage, when dissonance and failing function begin to appear, the initial principles rigidify.This is a period when, if wisdom were operative, re-examination and rethinking and a change of course are possible, but they are as rare as rubies in a backyard.Rigidifying leads to increase of investment and the need to protect egos; policy founded upon error multiple never retreats.The greater the investment and the more involved in it the sponsor’s ego, the more unacceptable is disengagement.In the third stage, pursuit of failure enlarges the damages until it causes the fall of Troy, the defection from the Papacy, the loss of a trans-Atlantic empire, the classic humiliation in Vietnam.Persistence in error is the problem.”
- Barbara Tuchman, The March of Folly (1984).
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Photo credit: Corbis Images
MORE PEOPLE WITH STRANGE CLOTHES AND FUNNY IDEAS
RELEVANT PRIOR WORK(WITH REFERENCES USED HERE)
Navigating an uncertain future: Environmental foundations for long-term success (2012) Rick Boven, Catherine Harland and Lillian Grace
Choosing your future: The role of ideas in managing trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives (2003) Rick Boven
Both available at www.stakeholderstrategies.co.nz/our-work
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