Bergs Timber - Introduce · The “old” Bergs Timber had an EBIT of SEK 31m (up from SEK 8m...
Transcript of Bergs Timber - Introduce · The “old” Bergs Timber had an EBIT of SEK 31m (up from SEK 8m...
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Bergs Timber
Reason: Post-results comment
Strong first quarter as a “new” company
Clean EBIT of SEK 69m, 2% below ABGSCe
Strong market outlook short-term
Norvik acquisition doubles EBIT
Clean EBIT of ~SEK 69m, 2% below ABGSCe
Clean EBIT was SEK 69m, 2% below ABGSCe of SEK 70m. This
corresponds to a clean EBIT margin of 8.2%, a strong figure compared to
historical returns for the Nordic sawmill industry. This was the first
quarter in which the newly acquired Norvik assets were fully
consolidated, contributing with SEK 37m to EBIT. The “old” Bergs Timber
had an EBIT of SEK 31m (up from SEK 8m y-o-y). Higher lumber prices
more than made up for higher input costs and lower sales volumes. We
lower EBIT for 18/19e by 2% and by 8% ‘19/’20e due to a slightly more
cautious outlook for lumber prices. From 2019, Bergs Timber will change
its reporting calendar to a standard calendar year. The ‘17/’18 accounting
year will therefore be extended by four months and the next report will be
for Sep-Dec ’18. We have not taken this into account in our estimates
yet, but will publish new estimates ahead of the next report.
Strong short-term outlook, but still cyclical
A strong global economy has resulted in high demand for lumber. The
short-term market outlook is strong with low stock levels and strong
demand, which has given record prices for sawmill products. Higher input
costs have also followed, but with a lag. However, the sawmill industry is
still cyclical and some macro indicators are starting to show signs of
weaker growth for the global economy.
The Norvik acquisition doubles group EBIT
The Norvik acquisition is transformational for the group as it lifts sawmill
capacity by ~75% and increases downstream exposure. It should also
result in more stable margins over the cycle. 2017/18 pro-forma figures
show that the consolidated company would have had an EBIT of SEK
245m, compared to the “old” Bergs Timber at SEK 115m. Bergs Timber
is now trading at EV/EBIT multiples of 7.0x and 8.8x on 2018/19e and
2019/20e, respectively.
05/10/2018
Performance
Equity Research - 07 October 2018 21:14 CET
SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales 1,216 2,029 3,380 3,258 3,118
EBITDA 83 205 336 273 187
EBITDA margin (%) 6.8 10.1 9.9 8.4 6.0
EBIT adj 36 166 252 185 99
EBIT adj margin (%) 3.0 8.2 7.5 5.7 3.2
Pretax profit 31 151 243 178 100
EPS rep 0.15 0.58 0.56 0.41 0.23
EPS adj 0.14 0.61 0.56 0.41 0.23
Sales growth (%) 32.7 66.9 66.6 -3.6 -4.3
EPS growth (%) 626.6 280.1 -3.6 -26.6 -44.0
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Lead analyst: Øystein Elton Lodgaard
Martin Melbye
Estimate changes (%)
2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales 1.4% -3.3% 0.0%
EBIT (rep) -2.0% -8.1% 0.0%
EPS (rep) -1.7% -5.9% 0.0%
Source: ABG Sundal Collier
Share price (SEK) 4.1
Paper Products, Sweden
BRGb.ST/BRGB SS
MCap (SEKm) 1,380
MCap (EURm) 132.3
Net debt (EURm) 37
No. of shares (m) 341
Free float (%) 20.3
Av. daily volume (k) 13.3
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8Bergs Timber OMX STH PI
1m 3m 12m
Absolute (%) 12.5 17.4 48.4
OMX STH PI (%) 0.0 6.8 2.1
Source: FactSet
2019e 2020e 2021e
P/E (x) 7.3 9.9 17.7
P/E adj (x) 7.3 9.9 17.7
P/BVPS (x) 1.18 1.09 1.06
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.0 8.3
EV/EBIT adj (x) 7.0 8.9 15.7
EV/sales (x) 0.52 0.50 0.50
ROE adj (%) 17.4 11.4 6.1
Dividend yield (%) 2.3 3.4 3.0
FCF yield (%) 11.1 12.8 8.4
Net IB debt/EBITDA 1.2 0.9 1.0
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 2
Geographical breakdown, sales, SEK
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Business area breakdown, sales, %
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
OpportunitiesHistorically, Bergs Timber has been a typical sawmill group
with a high degree of commoditised wood products. Going
forward, however, the group’s strategy is to increase focus
on value-added processing and perform complementary
acquisitions. Combined with strong macroeconomic
fundamentals, industry consolidation and improvement
programs there should be room for earnings uplift over the
coming years. The acquisition of Norvik Timber will
transform the group into a more vertically integrated player
with potential for margin improvement and a higher degree
of earnings stability.
RisksThe primary end-market for the group’s products is the
building and construction industry. As a result, demand for
the group’s products is cyclical and depends on global
economic developments. Due to a high degree of
commoditised products, the group’s earnings are highly
sensitive to the market prices of its products. An increase
in the price of saw logs could have negative impact the
group’s earnings since it is the most important input factor
in its operations. ~80% of the group’s products are sold in
foreign currencies like GDP, EUR and USD. Currency
fluctuations is therefore another major risk factor.
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ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean
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Company descriptionBergs Timber is the only listed timber pure-play in Sweden.
It sells sawn and processed wood products. ~80% of the
group’s products are exported, mainly to the UK, US and
other European countries. In January 2018, the company
announced its intention to acquire Norvik Timber, a
transformational acquisition that will approximately double
the group’s production capacity and revenues. Norvik
Timber is a vertically integrated group with sawmills,
production of processed wood products like windows,
houses and furniture, and distribution of own and third-
party products.
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 3
Quarterly results
Net sales in Q4 were SEK 838m, in line with ABGSCe of SEK 836m, and up from
SEK 334m in Q4 last year. Sales increased y-o-y due to units acquired from Norvik,
which contributed SEK 500m, and higher product prices. Sales volumes were
220,000m3, 7% below our estimate of 236,000m3, but this was compensated by
higher output prices. The company invested SEK 30m in a new line at the
Vimmerby sawmill in the quarter. This resulted in a planned ten-week maintenance
stop and 13,000m3 production y-o-y for the “old” Bergs Timber.
Clean EBIT was SEK 69m, 2% below ABGSCe of SEK 70m. This was the first
quarter in which the acquired Norvik assets were fully consolidated. The acquired
units contributed SEK 37m to EBIT, which means that clean EBIT for the “old” Bergs
Timber was SEK 31m, up from SEK 8m in the same period last year. The
improvement was primarily driven by higher prices for sawn wood products, while
higher input prices and lower sales volumes affected the results negatively.
If we look at pro-forma figures for the consolidated company, we see that EBIT was
up 84% y-o-y in Q4 and up 75% y-o-y for the full year.
Outlook
The company states that it continues to see strong demand for its products with
annual demand growth of 1-3%. Production is still high and the stock levels are low,
but Bergs Timber sees a more balanced market compared to the supply deficit seen
in the previous quarter.
Deviation table
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Pro-forma accounts for Bergs Timber and Norvik consolidated
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
SEKm Actual ABGSC Dev (%)
Sales volume 220,000 236,000 -7%
Net sales 838.2 836.1 0%
Reported EBITDA 86.9 85.0 2%
Clean EBITDA 87.6 89.0 -2%
Reported EBIT 68.0 66.0 3%
Clean EBIT 68.7 70.0 -2%
Pre-tax profit 63.8 64.8 -2%
Net income 58.8 50.5 16%
EPS 0.17 0.15 15%
Pro-forma numbers 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 Change y-o-y Change y-o-y
SEKm Q4 (Jun-Aug) Q4 (Jun-Aug) Full year Full year Q4 (Jun-Aug) Full year
Net sales 750 838 2,819 3,206 12% 14%
EBITDA 53 87 220 324 64% 47%
EBITDA margin 7.1% 10.4% 7.8% 10.1% 3.3pp. 2.3pp.
EBIT 37 68 140 245 84% 75%
EBIT margin 4.9% 8.1% 5.0% 7.6% 3.2pp. 2.7%
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 4
Estimate changes
We have lowered 18/19e clean EBIT by 2% because of slightly lower product price
assumptions, which is mostly offset by lower input cost assumptions. It seems that
prices of saw logs (input) and sawn wood products (output) will now be more stable
compared to our previous assumption of continued price increases for both output
and input factors into ‘19/’20.
We have also lowered our EBIT estimate for ‘19/’20e by 8% as we have a bit more
cautious view on the durability of the macroeconomic cycle.
From 2019, Bergs Timber will change its reporting calendar to a standard calendar
year. As a result, the ‘17/’18 accounting year will be extended by four months and
the next report will be for the period Sep-Dec ’18. We have not taken this into
account in our estimates yet, but will publish estimates for the new reporting
calendar ahead of the next financial report.
Estimate changes
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Old New Changes
SEKm '17/'18e '18/'19e '19/'20e '17/'18e '18/'19e '19/'20e '17/'18e '18/'19e '19/'20e
Revenues 2,041 3,334 3,371 2,029 3,380 3,258 -1% 1% -3%
Cost of goods sold -1,427 -2,444 -2,517 -1,401 -2,492 -2,418 -2% 2% -4%
Gross profit 614 890 854 629 888 841 2% 0% -2%
Operational expenditures -410 -549 -565 -423 -552 -568 3% 1% 1%
Reported EBITDA 204 341 289 205 336 273 1% -2% -6%
Clean EBITDA 213 341 289 212 336 273 -1% -2% -6%
Depreciations -46 -84 -88 -46 -84 -88 0% 0% 0%
Reported EBIT 157 257 201 159 252 185 1% -2% -8%
Clean EBIT 167 257 201 166 252 185 -1% -2% -8%
Net financials -5 -10 -7 -8 -10 -7 57% -4% -6%
Pre-tax profit 152 247 194 151 243 178 -1% -2% -8%
Taxes -33 -55 -46 -24 -53 -39 -28% -3% -15%
Net income 119 193 148 127 189 139 7% -2% -6%
EPS 0.51 0.57 0.43 0.53 0.56 0.41 5% -2% -6%
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 5
Bergs Timber highlights
Pure-play timber stock
Bergs Timber is the only pure-play timber stock listed in the Nordics, which
specialises in sawmills and wood products. For investors who want exposure to the
sawmill market, the Bergs Timber stock is the only way to get pure exposure to this
market.
Increased degree of processing – potential for higher and stable margins
The sawmill industry is usually characterised by low margins and volatile earnings,
due to a highly commoditised product and cyclical demand. Bergs Timber has a
strategy of increasing the share of value-added processing in its production. This
could give the company higher and more stable margins over the cycle. The
acquisition of Norvik Timber Industries could be a significant step in this strategy
and has the potential to give higher and more stable margins for the combined
group.
Strong market for sawmill, but cyclical industry
A strong underlying development in the global economy has led to increased
demand for the company’s products. This has resulted in improved prices and
deliveries of sawn wood products, wood chips and other sawmill by-products. A
slowdown in global economic activity, however, would have a negative effect on the
demand for Bergs’ products, which could significantly impact earnings.
Consolidation trend continues
Bergs Timber has gained a better market position as many sawmill plants in
Sweden have reduced or shut down capacity. The structural changes in the sawmill
industry have resulted in fewer and larger companies, which should affect the
market positively. Bergs Timber has consolidated sawmills in a concentrated
geographical area, thereby reducing costs and improving logistics. Bergs Timber
acquired several mills between 2014 and 2017: Gransjö, Broakulla and Vimmerby.
Transformative acquisition
The acquisition of Norvik Timber Industries is transformative for Bergs, and will
result in a more vertically integrated company with a broader product portfolio. As a
result of the acquisition, the degree of value-added processing increased, which
could result in increased margins at the group level and limit the sensitivity to
fluctuations in the underlying economy.
Double the market cap – more interesting for a broader scope of investors
The acquisition of Norvik Timber has resulted in a doubling of Bergs Timber’s
market cap. Part of the payment for the acquired units was provided in the form of
new shares in the company; the number of shares outstanding doubled on 15 May.
As a result, the market cap increased from SEK 482m on 14 May to SEK 971m on
15 May. This could make the stock more interesting to a broader scope of investors.
However, Norvik Timber currently holds 64.68% of the outstanding shares in
company, which will limit the liquidity in the stock and could result in a share
overhang.
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 6
Norvik transaction
Through the Norvik transaction, Bergs Timber acquired three sawmills and a plant
that processes sawn wood to create doors, windows, prefabricated houses and
garden furniture. In addition, the acquisition includes a distribution organisation that
distributes its own and third-party wood products to the UK market. The strategic
rationale behind the transaction is to increase the size and financial flexibility of the
company, the liquidity of its stock and expand vertically into distribution and value-
added processing. The transaction effectively doubled the size of Bergs’ operations,
revenues and market value. It should also give the company more stable margins
over the cycle and the economic firepower to continue to expand through M&A.
Payment for the acquisition was made in the form of 170 million newly issued Bergs
Timber shares at a price per share of SEK 2.85 and a cash payment of SEK 270m.
In total, Bergs Timber will pay SEK 755m for the acquired assets excluding
interests. Additionally, an earn-out of SEK 40m will be paid if the group is able to
deliver on certain performance targets, which brings the total payment to SEK
795m. Using figures for the last 12 months ending 31 May, the purchase price gives
an EV/EBITDA of 4.9x-5.2x and EV/EBIT of 6.4x-6.7x.
Overview of the new company
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Transaction overview
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 7
As a result of the acquisition, total sawmill capacity increased from ~530,000m3 to
~920,000m3 per year, an increase in capacity of ~74%. The primary markets for the
acquired units are the Baltics, Great Britain, Japan and the rest of Europe.
Looking at pro forma figures for 2016/17, a combination of the two firms would have
increased net sales by 130%. In this period, Bergs Timber had net sales of SEK
1,244m and Norvik companies had SEK 1,613m, indicating combined sales of SEK
2,857m. Combined EBIT would have been SEK 37m from Bergs Timber and SEK
102m from Norvik, giving a combined figure of SEK 139m.
The Norvik companies had higher margins than Bergs Timber in 2016/17, which
could mean that the combined company will be able to increase its margins
compared to the “old” Bergs Timber.
Margin overview Sep ’16-Aug ‘17
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
EBIT/EBITDA Sep ’16-Aug ‘17
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
According to the company, cost synergies are expected to arise in distribution,
commodity and by-products, but the company has not given any guidance on the
size of potential synergies.
Since the sale of Broakulla to Bergs Timber, Norvik has been a large shareholder in
Bergs Timber, holding 29.52% of the outstanding shares. As a result of the
transaction, Norvik has increased its ownership stake in Bergs to ~64.68%. Norvik
has announced its intention to sell down. Hence, the company seeks to hold a level
below 50% in the long term. Norvik has entered a lock-up agreement and may not
sell its shares in Bergs Timber for a period of two years.
The lock-up agreement does not prevent Norvik from divesting its shares in a
bilateral transaction. However, Norvik may not hold an amount of outstanding
shares of less than 40%, which is calculated on the basis of the number of shares
outstanding after the completion of the acquisition.
Pro-forma figures for Sep ‘16–Aug ‘17
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 8
Strong sawmilling market
The latest data indicate a strong sawmilling market. The sawmilling market is
characterised by relatively short up-cycles and intuitive market dynamics (low stocks
+ high demand = high prices).
Global building and construction activity has risen steadily over the past few years,
particularly in the US and China. As demand for lumber has increased, so have
Swedish lumber exports. As can be seen in the right-hand chart below, stocks have
declined steadily since their peak in 2015 because of the increasing exports.
Swedish sawmills: new export orders
:
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Woodstat
Swedish sawmills: stocks of finished goods (12m roll. avg.)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Woodstat
As a result, Swedish prices of lumber prices have spiked and are up ~16% y-o-y.
The US lumber price has risen strongly since the trough in 2016. In May, it reached
an all-time high of USD 655/board feet, up 41% YTD. Since May, it has come down
again and is now more in line with prices in other markets. The latest price was USD
350/board feet, which is down 18% y-o-y, but still 60% above the historical average.
Swedish sawmills: producer price index
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Woodstat
United States: lumber prices down from peak
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
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Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 9
Prices of saw logs usually follow higher timber prices, but with a lag. Prices of saw
logs have been rising both in the Nordics and the Baltics, which has led to higher
input costs for sawmills.
Nordic prices of spruce saw logs (EUR/m3)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Luke
Baltic prices of spruce saw logs (EUR/m3)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Structural market changes The Swedish sawmill market has previously been characterized by over-
establishment of sawmill capacity. However, since the 1990s a number of sawmills
have been shut down, while others have increased their production. The number of
sawmills with an annual production of more than 10,000m3 has been reduced from
~280 in 1980 to ~130 in 2017. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the total Swedish
sawmill production has remained relatively flat, only increasing from 16 million m3 to
18 million m3 in 17 years.
Number of sawmills with production >10,000m3
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Sawmill production and exports
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
In, 2016, China’s import of timber increased by 20% compared to the precious year.
As a result, China has become one of the largest export markets of sawn timber for
Sweden and one of Bergs Timber’s largest end-markets.
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Number of sawmills with production/year
10,000 m3
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Total sawmill production (left) Export (left) Export value (right)
Million m3 SEKbn
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 10
Bergs Timber has been active in the industry consolidation
In recent years, Bergs Timber has been active in the consolidation of the Swedish
sawmill industry. Of the company’s six plants, five have been acquired in the last 13
years. All the plants are located in the same region in order to create a rational
management of both raw materials and finished goods.
Bergs Timber’s Swedish sawmills (in green)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bergs Timber
Sweden: production per sawmill
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
The acquisition of Norvik Timber industries in 2017 added more capacity to the
group’s sawmill operations, this time however outside of Sweden.
End-markets
Builders and distributors are the main customers of construction and packaging
materials of spruce and pine. Lumber makes up ~85% of Berg Timber’s total sales,
while by-products, comprising ~15%, are mostly sold as inputs in energy production
or the pulp and paper industry. The company’s demand is highly cyclical and
depends on global economic developments due to the industries in which the end-
customers operate. The group’s earnings are sensitive to market prices due to a
high degree of commoditised products. The demand for sawn timber has been
strong in the US and China recently. Approximately 80% of the group’s products are
exported, mainly to the UK, China, and other European countries.
Net sales by product (2016/17)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Net sales by geography (2016/17)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
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1,000m3
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Bi products
Sawmill
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15%13%
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Great Britain
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Sweden
Egypt
Others
US
China
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 11
Housing market Swedish home sales are significantly down y-o-y. This should in turn lead to a
decline in the construction of new houses. We have already started to see weaker
statistics. New housing starts was down 19% y-o-y in Q1 and 28% y-o-y in Q2.
However, it is important to note that the official statistics understates the actual
number by 20-60% the first quarter after it has been released and that this effect is
strongest in Q2, i.e. the 28% decline could be within the statistical error.
Sweden: housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, SCB
Sweden: Buildings completed (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, SCB
US: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
UK: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
China: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
Japan: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
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59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
Thousand units
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Thousand units
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Thousand units
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Thousand units
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 12
Germany: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
Spain: Housing starts (LTM)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond
But softer macro indicators Leading macro indicators have started to point down. OECD Industrial Production
m-o-m growth has come down and is approaching negative m-o-m growth for the
first time since July 2016. This does not necessarily mean that we are approaching
a global downturn, but it is a signal that investors should be more cautious.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Thousand units
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Thousand units
OECD Industrial Production growth (m-o-m annualised)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Macrobond, OECD
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 13
Detailed estimates tables
Key assumptions
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Profit and loss statement
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
17/18 18/19e
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
Volumes ('000 m3)
Nameplate capacity 133 133 133 230 230 230 230 230 628 920 948
Production volume 142 122 155 185 246 215 240 195 462 604 896 923
Sales volume 130 117 149 220 226 206 240 230 493 616 902 929
Utilisation (%)
Deliveries / production 92% 96% 96% 119% 92% 96% 100% 118% 107% 102% 101% 101%
Capacity utilisation 107% 92% 117% 80% 107% 93% 104% 85% 0% 98% 98% 98%
Price of sawn goods
Growth, y-o-y 4% 7% 12% 16% 15% 10% 3% -1% 4% 10% 7% -7%
Implied realized price (SEK/m3) 2,648 2,837 3,516 3,810 3,293 3,308 4,172 4,295 2,535 3,203 3,767 3,514
Price of saw logs
Sweden - spruce logs (SEK/m3) 518 521 519 531 542 542 542 542 504 522 542 509
Growth, y-o-y 0% 3% 5% 5% 13% 13% 12% 12% -3% 4% 4% -6%
17/18 18/19e
SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
Net sales 344 332 524 838 743 682 1,001 988 1,244 2,038 3,414 3,281
Change in inventory 18 21 -3 -57 52 23 0 -109 -34 -21 -34 -23
Other income 9 -1 1 4 0 0 0 0 7 12 0 0
Total revenues 371 351 522 785 796 705 1,001 879 1,216 2,029 3,380 3,258
Cost of goods sold -260 -241 -346 -554 -579 -508 -749 -656 -819 -1,401 -2,492 -2,418
Gross profit 110 110 177 231 216 196 252 223 397 629 888 841
Other indirect costs -46 -51 -60 -60 -60 -58 -84 -74 -186 -217 -276 -284
Personell costs -35 -35 -46 -83 -70 -66 -74 -66 -124 -200 -276 -284
Other opex 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 -7 0 0
Reported EBITDA 29 23 67 87 86 72 94 83 83 205 336 273
Extraordinary effects 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -7 0 0
Clean EBITDA 29 24 71 88 86 72 94 83 81 212 336 273
Clean EBITDA margin 9% 7% 14% 10% 12% 11% 9% 8% 7% 10% 10% 8%
Depreciations -8 -9 -10 -19 -21 -21 -21 -21 -45 -46 -84 -88
Reported EBIT 21 14 56 68 65 51 73 62 37 159 252 185
Extraordinary effects 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -7 0 0
Clean EBIT 21 15 61 69 65 51 73 62 36 166 252 185
Clean EBIT margin 6% 5% 12% 8% 9% 8% 7% 6% 3% 8% 7% 6%
Financial income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Financial expenses -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -8 -10 -7
Pre-tax profit 20 12 55 64 63 49 71 60 31 151 243 178
Taxes -4 -3 -12 -5 -14 -11 -16 -13 -6 -24 -53 -39
Net income 16 10 43 59 49 38 55 47 25 127 189 139
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 14
Balance sheet
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Cash flow statement
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
17/18 18/19e
SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
Assets
Intangible assets 2 2 188 195 195 195 195 195 2 195 195 195
Tangible assets 264 267 729 778 779 780 781 782 264 778 782 782
Financial assets 1 1 1 8 8 8 8 8 2 8 8 8
Deferred tax assets 18 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
Non-current assets 284 285 923 982 983 984 985 986 287 982 986 986
Inventory 232 268 565 517 570 592 592 483 226 517 483 460
Receivables 202 193 448 372 330 303 445 439 178 372 439 424
Cash and cash equivalents 3 1 15 57 95 137 17 178 1 57 178 308
Current assets 437 462 1,027 947 995 1,032 1,054 1,100 406 947 1,100 1,191
Total assets 721 746 1,950 1,928 1,977 2,016 2,039 2,086 693 1,928 2,086 2,177
Equity and liabilities
Liabilities
Long-term interest bearing debt 61 13 346 218 218 218 218 218 65 218 218 218
Other long-term provisions 1 1 53 94 94 94 94 94 1 94 94 94
Total long-term liabillities 62 14 399 312 312 312 312 312 65 312 312 312
Short-term interest bearing debt 43 120 247 356 356 356 356 356 59 356 356 356
Other current liabilities 209 204 373 249 249 249 249 249 170 249 249 249
Total current liabilities 252 324 621 605 605 605 605 605 229 605 605 605
Total liabilities 314 338 1,020 916 916 916 916 916 294 916 916 916
Equity 407 408 931 1,012 1,061 1,099 1,122 1,169 398 1,012 1,169 1,261
Total equity and liabilities 721 746 1,950 1,928 1,977 2,016 2,039 2,086 693 1,928 2,086 2,177
17/18 18/19e
SEKm Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
Funds from operations 20 21 62 83 70 59 76 68 74 187 273 227
Change in working capital 9 -32 -5 41 -10 5 -142 115 38 14 -32 38
Cash flow from operations 29 -10 57 124 60 64 -66 183 112 200 241 265
Capex -9 -12 -24 -66 -22 -22 -22 -22 -35 -110 -88 -88
Other changes in non-current assets -9 0 -252 0 - - - - -60 -260 - -
Free cash flow 12 -22 -219 59 38 42 -88 161 17 -170 153 177
Equity raised - - -6 - - - - - - - - -
Dividend - -9 - - - - -32 - - - -32 -47
Net change in debt - - 281 -4 - - - 100 - - 100 70
Change in RCF -11 36 -36 -2 - - - - - - - -
Debt repaid -8 -8 -6 -10 - - - -100 - - -100 -70
Cash flow from financing activities -19 20 233 -16 - - -32 - -68 218 -32 -47
Net cash flow 2 -2 14 42 38 42 -120 161 -16 56 121 129
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 15
Historic earnings and key figures
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
SEKm 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
Net sales 860 778 916 853 825 664 665 853 894 1,244 2,038 3,414 3,281
Net sales growth 16% -10% 18% -7% -3% -19% 0% 28% 5% 39% 64% 68% -4%
Clean EBITDA 44 15 85 6 7 -27 24 37 42 81 212 336 273
Clean EBITDA margin 5% 2% 9% 1% 1% -4% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 10% 8%
Clean EBIT 10 -25 42 -37 -34 -70 -13 -3 -1 36 166 252 185
Clean EBIT margin 1% -3% 4% -4% -4% -10% -2% 0% 0% 3% 8% 7% 6%
Net income -5 -27 24 -39 -39 -24 -11 -29 -4 25 127 189 139
EPS -0.68 -3.88 3.49 -5.71 -5.65 -0.25 -0.11 -0.26 -0.03 0.15 0.53 0.56 0.41
Cash convertion ratio -159% -37% -5% -295% 185% n.a. -382% 94% 35% 21% -80% 45% 65%
Net debt 296 301 304 323 310 68 158 178 174 122 517 395 266
NIBD/ EBITDA 6.8x 20.3x 3.6x 57.7x 45.6x -2.5x 6.7x 4.8x 4.1x 1.5x 2.4x 1.2x 1.0x
ATRoCE 1% -4% 6% -5% -5% -17% -2% -1% 0% 5% 8% 13% 9%
RoE -2% -11% 9% -17% -20% -9% -4% -11% -1% 6% 13% 16% 11%
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 16
Key figures for Bergs Timber
Net sales (SEKm)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Total sales volume (1,000 m3)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Clean EBIT (SEKm)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
After-tax return on capital employed
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Leverage ratio (NIBD / EBITDA)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
Free cash flow (SEKm)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data
665853 894
1,244
2,038
3,4143,281
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
SEKm
236
311 328
493
616
902 929
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
1,000 m3
-13 -3 -1
36
166
252
185
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
SEKm
-2%
-1% 0%
5%
8%
13%
9%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
ATROCE
6.7x
4.8x
4.1x
1.5x
2.4x
1.2x 1.0x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
NIBD / EBITDA
-91
3515 17
-170
153177
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19e 19/20e
SEKm
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 17
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Income Statement (SEKm) Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019e Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e
Sales 371 351 522 785 796 705 1,001 879
COGS -260 -241 -346 -554 -579 -508 -749 -656
Gross profit 110 110 177 231 216 196 252 223
Other operating items -81 -88 -110 -144 -130 -124 -158 -140
EBITDA 29 23 67 87 86 72 94 83
Depreciation on tangibles -8 -9 -10 -19 -21 -21 -21 -21
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITA 21 14 56 68 65 51 73 62
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT 21 14 56 68 65 51 73 62
Interest Net -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2
Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pretax profit 20 12 55 64 63 49 71 60
Tax -4 -3 -12 -5 -14 -11 -16 -13
Net profit 16 10 43 59 49 38 55 47
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders 16 10 43 59 49 38 55 47
EPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EPS Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 21.8 22.0 21.6 7.8 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
Gross margin (%) 29.7 31.4 33.9 29.5 27.2 27.9 25.2 25.4
EBITDA margin (%) 7.9 6.4 12.7 11.1 10.9 10.3 9.4 9.5
EBITA margin (%) 5.7 3.9 10.8 8.7 8.2 7.3 7.3 7.1
EBIT margin (%) 5.7 3.9 10.8 8.7 8.2 7.3 7.3 7.1
Pretax margin (%) 5.5 3.5 10.5 8.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 6.8
Net margin (%) 4.3 2.7 8.2 7.5 6.2 5.4 5.5 5.3
Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019e Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e
Sales growth (%) 33.2 19.9 45.0 175.7 114.7 100.5 91.7 11.9
EBITDA growth (%) 80.4 132.0 95.9 286.2 194.1 221.4 41.1 -3.9
EBIT growth (%) 283.6 +chg 156.4 501.8 210.3 274.5 29.4 -8.1
Net profit growth (%) 364.7 +chg 165.8 583.7 211.3 297.4 28.6 -20.3
EPS growth (%) 364.7 +chg 165.8 583.7 211.3 297.4 28.6 -20.3
Adj earnings numbers Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019e Q2 2019e Q3 2019e Q4 2019e
EBITDA Adj 29 24 71 88 86 72 94 83
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 7.9 6.8 13.6 11.2 10.9 10.3 9.4 9.5
EBITA Adj 21 15 61 69 65 51 73 62
EBITA Adj margin (%) 5.7 4.3 11.6 8.8 8.2 7.3 7.3 7.1
EBIT Adj 21 15 61 69 65 51 73 62
EBIT Adj margin (%) 5.7 4.3 11.6 8.8 8.2 7.3 7.3 7.1
Pretax profit Adj 20 14 59 65 63 49 71 60
Net profit Adj 16 11 47 60 49 38 55 47
Net profit to shareholders Adj 16 11 47 60 49 38 55 47
Net Adj margin (%) 4.3 3.2 9.0 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.5 5.3
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 18
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Income Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales 804 701 697 876 917 1,216 2,029 3,380 3,258 3,118
COGS -583 -473 -485 -623 -634 -819 -1,401 -2,492 -2,418 -2,345
Gross profit 221 229 212 253 283 397 629 888 841 772
Other operating items -214 -205 -183 -243 -237 -315 -423 -551 -568 -585
EBITDA 7 23 29 11 46 83 205 336 273 187
Depreciation on tangibles -41 -43 -36 -40 -43 -45 -46 -84 -88 -88
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITA -34 -20 -7 -29 2 37 159 252 185 99
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT -34 -20 -7 -29 2 37 159 252 185 99
Interest Net -18 -12 -6 -8 -6 -6 -8 -10 -7 0
Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pretax profit -53 -31 -13 -37 -4 31 151 243 178 100
Tax 14 7 3 8 0 -6 -24 -53 -39 -22
Net profit -39 -24 -11 -29 -4 25 127 189 139 78
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -39 -24 -11 -29 -4 25 127 189 139 78
EPS -5.66 -0.25 -0.11 -0.26 -0.03 0.15 0.58 0.56 0.41 0.23
EPS Adj -5.66 -0.77 -0.16 -0.02 -0.05 0.14 0.61 0.56 0.41 0.23
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 51 5 -26 3 1 -7 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 26.1 22.5 20.9 21.9 10.0 19.7 15.8 22.0 22.0 22.0
Gross margin (%) 27.4 32.6 30.4 28.9 30.9 32.7 31.0 26.3 25.8 24.8
EBITDA margin (%) 0.8 3.3 4.2 1.2 5.0 6.8 10.1 9.9 8.4 6.0
EBITA margin (%) -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 -3.4 0.3 3.1 7.8 7.5 5.7 3.2
EBIT margin (%) -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 -3.4 0.3 3.1 7.8 7.5 5.7 3.2
Pretax margin (%) -6.6 -4.4 -1.9 -4.2 -0.4 2.6 7.4 7.2 5.5 3.2
Net margin (%) -4.9 -3.4 -1.5 -3.3 -0.4 2.1 6.3 5.6 4.3 2.5
Growth rates Y/Y 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales growth (%) -11.4 -12.8 -0.6 25.7 4.6 32.7 66.9 66.6 -3.6 -4.3
EBITDA growth (%) 21.4 244.1 23.9 -62.4 318.3 80.9 149.0 63.7 -18.9 -31.3
EBIT growth (%) 6.0 43.3 63.1 -308.3 108.2 1,454.2 326.8 58.4 -26.7 -46.2
Net profit growth (%) 1.0 38.2 56.0 -172.6 87.5 800.0 404.0 49.0 -26.6 -44.0
EPS growth (%) 1.0 95.6 56.0 -141.1 89.1 626.6 280.1 -3.6 -26.6 -44.0
Profitability 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
ROE (%) -18.5 -10.6 -4.1 -11.1 -1.2 6.8 18.0 17.4 11.4 6.1
ROE Adj (%) -18.5 -32.8 -6.2 -1.0 -2.2 6.4 18.9 17.4 11.4 6.1
ROCE (%) -6.5 -4.7 -1.9 -7.2 0.6 7.5 15.8 16.4 12.0 6.7
ROCE Adj(%) -6.5 -17.0 -3.4 -0.8 -0.1 7.3 16.4 16.4 12.0 6.7
ROIC (%) -4.0 -3.0 -1.3 -4.5 0.4 4.6 10.6 10.5 7.7 4.2
ROIC Adj (%) -4.0 -10.7 -2.2 -0.5 -0.1 4.5 11.0 10.5 7.7 4.2
Adj earnings numbers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
EBITDA Adj 7 -27 24 37 42 81 212 336 273 187
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 0.8 -3.9 3.4 4.2 4.6 6.7 10.4 9.9 8.4 6.0
EBITA Adj -34 -70 -13 -3 -1 36 166 252 185 99
EBITA Adj margin (%) -4.3 -10.0 -1.8 -0.4 -0.1 3.0 8.2 7.5 5.7 3.2
EBIT Adj -34 -70 -13 -3 -1 36 166 252 185 99
EBIT Adj margin (%) -4.3 -10.0 -1.8 -0.4 -0.1 3.0 8.2 7.5 5.7 3.2
Pretax profit Adj -53 -82 -19 -11 -7 30 157 243 178 100
Net profit Adj -39 -75 -16 -3 -7 24 134 189 139 78
Net profit to shareholders Adj -39 -75 -16 -3 -7 24 134 189 139 78
Net Adj margin (%) -4.9 -10.6 -2.3 -0.3 -0.7 2.0 6.6 5.6 4.3 2.5
Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 19
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 7 23 29 11 46 83 205 336 273 187
Net financial items -18 -12 -6 -8 -6 -6 -8 -10 -7 0
Paid tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 -24 -53 -39 -22
Non-cash items -11 -76 -16 91 -2 73 0 0 0 0
Cash flow before change in WC -22 -64 6 94 38 150 173 273 227 166
Change in WC 39 92 -54 -54 -71 -38 -485 -32 38 38
Operating cash flow 17 28 -48 40 -34 112 200 241 265 204
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -4 118 -43 -5 49 -95 -370 -88 -88 -88
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow 13 146 -91 35 15 17 -170 153 177 116
Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -32 -47 -42
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non cash items 2 103 3 -44 -5 29 -238 0 0 0
Decrease in net IB debt 15 249 -87 -9 10 46 -408 121 129 75
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 3 2 2 2 2 2 195 195 195 195
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 321 223 234 245 251 264 778 782 782 782
Other fixed assets 2 7 11 22 28 22 8 8 8 8
Fixed assets 325 232 247 269 280 287 982 986 986 986
Inventories 185 108 151 189 254 226 517 483 460 438
Receivables 94 79 90 106 113 178 372 439 424 408
Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 0 48 2 0 17 1 57 178 308 382
Total assets 604 467 490 564 663 693 1,928 2,086 2,177 2,213
Shareholders equity 191 263 253 266 347 398 1,012 1,169 1,261 1,297
Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 191 263 253 266 347 398 1,012 1,169 1,261 1,297
Long-term debt 67 104 102 17 53 65 218 218 218 218
Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 3 1 1 1 1 1 94 94 94 94
Short-term debt 243 11 58 162 137 59 356 356 356 356
Accounts payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 100 88 77 119 125 170 249 249 249 249
Total liabilities and equity 604 467 490 564 663 693 1,928 2,086 2,177 2,213
Net IB debt 309 60 147 156 146 100 508 387 258 183
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 309 60 147 156 146 100 508 387 258 183
Capital invested 603 412 477 542 619 670 1,863 1,899 1,861 1,823
Working capital 279 187 241 295 366 404 889 922 884 845
EV breakdown 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Market cap. diluted (m) na 166 254 275 251 435 829 1,380 1,380 1,380
Net IB debt Adj 309 60 147 156 146 100 508 387 258 183
Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EV na 226 401 432 397 536 1,337 1,767 1,638 1,563
Capital efficiency (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Total assets turnover (%) 125.5 130.9 145.8 166.3 149.3 179.4 154.9 168.4 152.9 142.0
Capital invested turnover (%) 125.8 138.3 156.9 172.0 157.9 188.7 160.3 179.7 173.3 169.2
Capital employed turnover (%) 152.7 170.4 192.8 213.2 200.2 245.2 201.1 219.8 212.0 207.9
Inventories/sales (%) 24.3 20.8 18.5 19.4 24.1 19.7 18.3 14.8 14.5 14.4
Customer advances/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Payables/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Working capital/sales (%) 37.2 33.2 30.7 30.6 36.1 31.7 31.9 26.8 27.7 27.7
Financial risk and debt service 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Net debt/equity (%) 161.6 22.8 58.2 58.8 42.1 25.2 50.2 33.1 20.4 14.1
Net debt/market cap (%) na 47.4 58.1 55.8 55.6 25.7 81.8 28.0 18.7 13.3
Equity ratio (%) 31.6 56.4 51.6 47.2 52.3 57.5 52.5 56.1 57.9 58.6
Net IB debt adj./equity (%) 161.6 22.8 58.2 58.8 42.1 25.2 50.2 33.1 20.4 14.1
Current ratio (%) 81.4 236.8 179.8 105.3 145.8 176.9 156.6 182.0 197.1 203.1
EBITDA/net interest (%) 37.0 201.7 467.7 143.4 712.5 1,398.3 2,474.7 3,502.3 4,011.3 -46,832.9
Net IB debt/EBITDA (%) 4,538.2 256.8 507.6 1,433.9 320.2 121.8 247.4 115.1 94.5 97.7
Interest cover (%) -187.0 -168.1 -109.4 -386.8 39.4 632.2 1,896.4 2,526.2 2,571.8 nm
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Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 7 97 97 109 125 166 220 341 341 341
Fully diluted shares Adj 7 97 97 109 125 166 220 341 341 341
EPS -5.66 -0.25 -0.11 -0.26 -0.03 0.15 0.58 0.56 0.41 0.23
Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
EPS Adj -5.66 -0.77 -0.16 -0.02 -0.05 0.14 0.61 0.56 0.41 0.23
BVPS 27.70 2.73 2.62 2.44 2.78 2.40 4.59 3.43 3.70 3.81
BVPS Adj 27.70 2.73 2.62 2.44 2.78 2.40 4.59 3.43 3.70 3.81
Net IB debt / share 44.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.6 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.5
Share price na 1.72 2.63 2.52 2.01 2.62 3.76 4.05 4.05 4.05
Market cap. (m) na 166 254 275 251 435 829 1,380 1,380 1,380
Valuation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
P/E na -6.9 -24.0 -9.5 -69.8 17.3 6.5 7.3 9.9 17.7
EV/sales na 0.32 0.58 0.49 0.43 0.44 0.66 0.52 0.50 0.50
EV/EBITDA na 9.7 13.8 39.6 8.7 6.5 6.5 5.3 6.0 8.3
EV/EBITA na -11.6 -55.7 -14.7 165.5 14.4 8.4 7.0 8.9 15.7
EV/EBIT na -11.6 -55.7 -14.7 165.5 14.4 8.4 7.0 8.9 15.7
Dividend yield (%) na 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.0
FCF yield (%) na 87.9 -35.6 12.6 5.9 3.8 -20.5 11.1 12.8 8.4
P/BVPS na 0.63 1.00 1.03 0.72 1.09 0.82 1.18 1.09 1.06
P/BVPS Adj na 0.63 1.00 1.03 0.72 1.09 0.82 1.18 1.09 1.06
P/E Adj na -2.2 -16.0 -102.0 -37.0 18.2 6.2 7.3 9.9 17.7
EV/EBITDA Adj na -8.3 16.9 11.6 9.4 6.6 6.3 5.3 6.0 8.3
EV/EBITA Adj na -3.2 -32.1 -134.9 -496.6 14.9 8.1 7.0 8.9 15.7
EV/EBIT Adj na -3.2 -32.1 -134.9 -496.6 14.9 8.1 7.0 8.9 15.7
EV/cap. employed na 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1
Investment ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Capex/sales 0.5 -16.8 6.1 0.6 -5.3 7.8 18.3 2.6 2.7 2.8
Capex/depreciation 10.7 -275.1 118.0 13.2 -112.5 210.4 801.7 104.8 100.0 100.0
Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 1.4 -53.0 18.2 2.2 -19.4 36.1 47.6 11.2 11.2 11.2
Capex intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 12.8 19.3 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.2 5.9 10.7 11.2 11.2
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7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 21
Analyst certification I/We, Martin Melbye, Øystein Elton Lodgaard, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.
Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.
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Production of report: 07/10/2018 21:14 CET.
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Bergs Timber
7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 22
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Bergs Timber
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7 October 2018 ABG Sundal Collier 23
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