Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project

Carbon Balance Verification

Mark Easter Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory

Colorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado USAmark.easter@colostate.edu

www.nrel.colostate.edu

Collaborators:Keith Paustian, Stephen Ogle, Rich Conant, Ken Killian, Kris Peterson, Steve Williams, Dean Selby, Amy Swan, Shannon Spencer & the GEFSOC team.

Funding: GEF/UNEP, US EPA, US USDA-NRCS

Carbon Benefits ProjectSystem Overview

Measurement ProtocolModule

Guidance Module

Activity Data Module

Reporting and AuxiliaryModule

Measurement Data Module

Remote sensing

Ground-based measurements

Calculation Module

IPCC Tier 1 & 2

GEFSOC models

Bayesian/LME models

Information and workflows

Project Description Module

Text input

Geographic input

Socioeconomic Module

Data

Models

Overview

• System Design Issues• Leveraging Existing Technologies to meet Project

Objectives– COMET– ALU– GEFSOC– Uncertainty Analysis

• System Requirements

System Design Issues

Geographic Scope

Community-based~10 km2

China Projects

Landscape Scale~ 100,000 km2

Brazilian AmazonNiger/Nigeria

Watershed/Catchment~1,000 - 10,000 km2

Kenya Projects

Land Use / Mgmt Change

Dominated by a Single LM ShiftChina Projects

Complex, DynamicLand Use & Mgmt Changes

All Others

System Design Issues

GEFProject

ObjectivesLandImprovement

Socio-Political

EconomicImprovements

Capacity-Building

SystemUsersGEF

Program Officers

Project Managers at All Project Stages Community Groups in

Sustainable Land Mgmt Interventions

GHG Benefits& Uncertainty

ProjectResources

EconomicFactors

MeasurementUncertainty

Model/Classification Uncertainty

System Design• COMET-like interface & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting

• Small land areas• Straightforward land use transitions• Limited number of soil and climate types• Limited Uncertainty Analysis

• ALU system & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting• Moderate to large land areas• Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions• Multiple climate/soil combinations• Limited Uncertainty Analysis

• ALU (front end) + GEFSOC modeling system (back end) for Tier 3 reporting approach

• Moderate to large land areas• Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions• Multiple climate/soil combinations• Economic factors favor tier 3 inventory• Advanced Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Method

China Projects

All OtherProjects

AmazonNiger/Nigeria

Existing Technologies

COMET-VRALU GEFSOC

n=1

∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000

Uncertainty Analysis

What is ALU? • Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) National Greenhouse Gas

Inventory Software Program– Second generation of software, originally called CAALU– Supports national reporting to the UNFCCC

• Data Collection and GHG Calculation tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from source categories in Agriculture and LULUCF– IPCC GHG Inventory methods (96 GL, 2000 GPG, 2003 GPG

LULUCF, 2006 GL)• User-friendly interface guiding user through inventory process using

IPCC recommended good practices– Makes process more transparent than textual guidance and

worksheets alone• Extends design of IPCC worksheets interactive guidance and data

management capabilities

Why is ALU Needed?

Reporting ErrorsInventories Incomplete

MultipleScientific

Committees

Eighty-two GHG flux

calculations

Eight GHG Source

Categories

Mixtureof Reporting

Units

ConflictingInventoryMethods

Twenty-Eight GHG Sub-source

Categories380+

EquationFactors

The ALU Project

• A way forward to improve application of IPCC methods for GHG Inventories in Agriculture and LULUCF Sectors

• Arguably most complicated sectors for GHG inventory assessment

• Important sectors in non-Annex I countries: Deforestation, Livestock Management, Rice Management, Fertilizer Use

The ALU Project, cont’d

ALU System

Grassland Management

Cropland Management

Land Use

Forestland Management

• Data management capability– Activity data, factor files, emission results– Utilize GIS-based data on land use and land use change

derived from remote sensing imagery - Option

• Digital archive of all data and results– Self-contained database with activity data, documentation

references and results – Institutional memory for long-term sustainability of GHG

inventory

• Support reporting to the UNFCCC through capacity-building project

The ALU Project, cont’d

Activity Data Requirements

• Land use data – Approach 1 Activity Data: Forest Lands, Croplands,

Grasslands, Settlements, Wetlands and Other Lands

– By climate region and soil type

• Land management and associated data– Croplands, grasslands, forest lands and settlements

• Livestock – Basic Characterization

• Population numbers

– Manure management• Dry lot, Pasture/Range Paddock, digesters, lagoons etc.

Activity Data Requirements (cont.)• Nitrogen fertilizer, carbonate lime (limestone and

dolomite) and sewage sludge additions to soils• Rice management

– Water table management and organic amendment rates

• Crop residues– Crop yields to estimate residue amounts– Crop-specific residue to yield ratios

• Biomass C Loss– Timber harvest – Fuelwood gathering– Stand-replacing disturbances

• fires, pest outbreaks, typhoons, etc.

– Deforestation

Optional Activity Data

• A variety of options are provided to incorporate country-specific data

• Option to use Approach 2 and 3 Activity Data - Land Use Change Categories

• Country-specific climate, soil and land use subcategories

• Option for an Enhanced characterization of livestock– Tier 2 emission factors for enteric and manure methane

• Country-specific livestock nitrogen excretion rates

• Settlement tree species and cover for biomass C stock change estimates

Emission/Stock Change Factors

• Defaults (provided in ALU) or country-specific values• Biomass C growth and loss factors• Soil stock change factors and reference C stocks

• Soil N2O emission factors

• Enteric CH4 emission factors

• Manure methane and N2O emission factors

• Biomass burning factors for non-CO2 GHG emissions

• Rice CH4 emission factors

ALU Form Flow – Primary Land Use Data

ALU Database

ALU Current Status• Software Beta version currently in demonstration and

testing phase, final development• Software Beta version release: July, 2009• Version 2 release: September, 2009• Begin version 3 development Summer, 2009

– Allow comparison of land use scenarios– Expanded GIS import support– Build IPCC default datasets for other world regions

Software Web Site:http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects

/ghgtool/

Existing Technologies

COMET-VRALU GEFSOC

n=1

∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000

Uncertainty Analysis

COMET-VR & COMET-FARM

Web-based Decision Support Tool

• Provides rapid assessment of GHG impacts of land use & mgmt scenarios

• CO2 from CENTURY model

• Cropland N2O from DAYCENT-based metamodel, IPCC

• Livestock CH4/N2O from IPCC

• Emissions from fuel use per IPCC defaults

COMET CharacteristicsCOMET-VR• Has been deployed for four years• User first specifies state, county, soil texture/hydric condition• User then selects pre-populated crop rotations and tillage• System returns CO2 and N2O flux estimates and CO2 uncertainty

COMET-FARM• Farm/Enterprise-scale version of COMET-VR + livestock & energy• In development, Alpha release September, 2009• User draws in field boundaries and livestock herd/flock locations• State/county/soil data pulled from GIS coverages• System returns full GHG budget for farm/enterprise

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-Like IPCC-Based Decision Support Tool

Select Factor Dataset• Equatorial Africa• Central Asia• Latin America• Etc.

Define Activity Data, Calculate

Emissions

Select Inventory Category Synthetic Fertilizer

Land Use Livestock Liming Sewage Sludge

IPCC Land Use Climate & Soil

Define Land Use Category and Subcategory

Enter Activity Data, Calculate

Emissions

IPCC Livestock Climate & Soil

Define Livestock Category and Subcategory

Enter Activity Data, Calculate

Emissions

Software Web Site:http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu

Existing Technologies

COMET-VRALU GEFSOC

n=1

∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000

Uncertainty Analysis

• A system for regional/national level assessment of soil C dynamics

• The system is scaleable, with capabilities on the order of 108 soil-climate-management combinations.

• A system that is flexible; address a variety of other issues (e.g. soil sustainability, N and P dynamics, full GHG accounting, etc.) and capabilities (e.g. multiple models accommodated).

The GEFSOC System

Technical Overview

• Design Goals for the GEFSOC modeling system• Hardware and software components• Modeling and data components• Types of analysis possible

Modelling System Goals

• Use readily available hardware components

• Take advantage of open source software and shareware to

the maximum extent possible

• Use off-the-shelf software for tasks where open source

software is not available

• Utilize computer skills generally available within the

scientific community

• Link with SOTER and GIS

• Utilize land use data generally available

• Release the system as Open Source

Hardware and Software

Personal Computer or Workstation

Microsoft Windows 2000 or Microsoft Windows XP

Personal Computer, Workstation, or Server

Redhat LINUX

Network Connection on Private Network using

crossover cable or switch

Windows SoftwareMicrosoft Access (database)ESRI ArcView or ArgGIS or

otherActiveExperts ToolkitMySQL ODBC DriverMySQL AdministratorTextpad text file editor

Secure Shell Client

LINUX SoftwareCENTURY

RothCMySQL (database)

PERLPERL DBI

• Hardware all consists of off-the-shelf components• Most software is shareware and can be downloaded off

the web• Software that is not shareware is readily available and

relatively inexpensive

Software Components

GISMS Access Front End

MySQL Database Server

Modeling System (PERL)

CenturyRothC

IPCC (SQL)

Modeling System

• Data consist of separate, distinct GIS coverages

• Each represents key elements required to drive the models

• Goal is to produce a unique intersection of all of the coverages

• Polygon-based or grid-based approaches possible

Input Layers

Land Use/Mgmt

• Common problem in GHG Inventories: Land use data and histories dissociated from soil/climate data

• Land use sequences necessary to accurately assess current soil C stocks, change rates, scenarios

• How do we assess the area-extent of different land use transitions expressed within one land use polygon?

Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d

NF: Native ForestCSG: Cont small grainsDASG: dryland legume hay-small grainsFSG: fallow-small grainsFSGO: fallow-small grains-oilseedFSGM: fallow-small grains-milletCC: clearcut forestPC: partial timber cutFire: stand-replacing fireRF: Forest regenerating from fire or CC

Northern Rocky Mtn Foothills

Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d

• National & sub-National GHG Inventories Completed:– Brazilian Amazon

– Kenya

– Jordan

– Indo-Gangetic Plain of India

• Other National Inventories in Progress:– Spain

– Italy

Results, Amazon Basin

SOC stocks (t C ha-1)

kilometers0 250 500

SOC stocks (t C ha-1)

kilometers0 250 500

Modeled soil C stocks in the Amazon Basin, 1990

Source: Cerri et al. 2007.

Results, Amazon Basin

Modeled soil C stock changes by land use in the Amazon Basin, 1990-2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

NativeVegetation

Abandon area DegradedPasture

Well ManagedPasture

Soybean

19902000

2030

30000

20000

25000

SO

C (

Tg

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

NativeVegetation

Abandon area DegradedPasture

Well ManagedPasture

Soybean

19902000

2030

30000

20000

25000

SO

C (

Tg

)

Source: Cerri et al. 2007.

Software Web Site:http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/

projects/gefsoc-uk/

Existing Technologies

COMET-VRALU GEFSOC

n=1

∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000

Uncertainty Analysis

Uncertainty Analysis

• Utilize published uncertainties in IPCC method

• Include capacity to update (+/-) statistical uncertainties of IPCC factors

• Add Structural and non-Structural Uncertainty Techniques from U.S. GHG Inventory

• Employ Monte Carlo Methods

System Requirements and Design• Vision and Scope: “The suite of tools will be available, with full instructions on how to use them, from a single website during and beyond the lifetime of a project.”

• Web-based tools to support the CBP Guidance Module.• System will provide user with GHG inventory based on project scenarios• Provide ample, useful instruction and help files to support users.• Build the system to last beyond the initial development and test period.

• Initial System Design Activities• Describe users• Develop User Interface Requirements• Define Deployment Platform• Assess Data Storage Requirements• Assess Internet and Data Security Needs• User Software Requirements• Assess performance needs

System Requirements and Design, Cont’d• Design and Development Risks

• Data Availability• Interface Development• Integration ALU Front-End with GEFSOC Modeling System• User satisfaction, system use-ability• Risks associated with parallel development of Guidance, Activity, Calculation, and Reporting Modules

• Design Process Goals (we proposing using the “Scrum” method):• Rapid, iterative development of many smaller project sections• Frequent assessment of project status• Design process and status transparency• Frequent interaction and communication between scientists, developers, client group

Mark Easter Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory

Colorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado USAmark . easter@colostate.edu

www.nrel.colostate.edu